Technical prediction of cyclohexanone market: probability of improvement increases

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, since March 3, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started a downward trend, but currently the two moving averages are moving in opposite directions. On April 14, 2024, it was estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. crossing the 7-day moving average above the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 47.82%.

At present, the price of cyclohexanone is at a mid high point in one year, a mid high point in two years, and a mid low point in three years. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of cyclohexanone in the past three years is 9401.25 yuan/kg, with a median value of 9155.16 yuan/kg, a minimum value of 7988.89 yuan/kg, and a maximum value of 10321.43 yuan/kg. The low price difference (compared to the lowest price difference in the past three years) is 1654.86 yuan/kg, and the top price difference (compared to the highest price difference in the past three years) is -677.68 yuan/kg.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from April 8th to 16th, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market increased from 9643 yuan/ton to 962 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.19% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 0.71%, and a year-on-year increase of 1.60%. The raw material pure benzene fluctuates at a high level, and the cost pressure remains unchanged. In the early stage, many downstream chemical fibers have been centralized for procurement. Recently, many downstream chemical fibers have followed up as needed. There is abundant supply of cyclohexanone in spot, but the cyclohexanone market lacks positive boost, resulting in weak market growth and overall narrow consolidation and operation.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The pure benzene market fluctuates at a high level. As of April 16th, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyishe is 8707.17 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 7.14 million tons, and the current operating load is close to 70%, which is at a relatively low level. The weekly operating load of cyclohexanone is 69.39%, and the weekly production is 105300 tons, which has increased compared to the previous cycle. The supply of cyclohexanone is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. In April, there was an increase in maintenance plans for caprolactam, and some units have recently reduced production, leading to stronger supply side support and an increase in caprolactam market prices. The demand for cyclohexanone is temporarily positive.

In the future market forecast, pure benzene is operating at a high level, with no reduction in cost pressure, weak downstream demand, stable and abundant spot supply in the market, and no plans to reduce production. Business Society cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will remain stagnant in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 3033 yuan/ton on April 7th, and 2916 yuan/ton on April 15th. This week, the market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate dropped by 2.20%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3966 yuan/ton on April 7th. On April 15th, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3940 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of diammonium phosphate decreased by 0.67%.

2、 Market analysis

Market quotation situation

As of April 15th, the market price of 55% ammonium powder in Hubei region is around 2850-2950 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 55% ammonium powder in Henan region is around 2900-3000 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The outbound price of 64% diammonium in Shandong region is around 3900-4100 yuan/ton, and the outbound price of 57% diammonium is around 3560-3660 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiable.

Cost side

This week, the domestic market for raw material phosphate ore remained stable and operated steadily. Among them, the spot circulation of high-grade phosphate ore is relatively tight, while the overall supply of medium and low grade phosphate ore is relatively loose. Currently, the overall performance of the downstream demand side for phosphate ore is average, with downstream users mainly engaged in rigid procurement, and new market transactions are relatively cautious. As of April 15th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1000-1100 yuan/ton.

The domestic market price of raw material sulfur has increased this week. The sulfur refinery unit is operating normally and the manufacturer’s shipments are smooth. As of April 15th, the reference price for domestic sulfur market is 1203.33 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand side

This week, the operating rate of ammonium phosphate enterprises has declined, and some ammonium phosphate plants have started maintenance or planned maintenance, leading to a reduction in market supply. The situation of sustained sluggish demand has not improved, and market trading is weak. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are more cautious in procurement, with insufficient new orders and a strong wait-and-see attitude.

3、 Technical analysis

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, since March 24, 2024, the 7-day moving average of ammonium phosphate has crossed the 30 day moving average and started a downward trend. Currently, both moving averages continue to decline in the same direction. According to calculations, the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. crossing the 30 day moving average above the 7-day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is only 13.37%. The probability of ammonium phosphate continuing to move downwards in the short term is relatively high.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, since March 31, 2024, the 7-day moving average of diammonium phosphate has crossed the 30 day moving average and started a downward trend. Currently, both moving averages continue to decline in the same direction. According to calculations, the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. crossing the 30 day moving average above the 7-day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 24.46%. The probability of ammonium phosphate continuing to move downwards in the short term is relatively high.

4、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Shengyi Society, spring plowing is nearing its end and the ammonium phosphate market is operating weakly. Although there is support on the cost side, downstream demand is not performing well, and the short-term market situation is difficult to improve. Technical analysis also shows a high probability of a downward trend. It is expected that the short-term market price of ammonium phosphate will continue to decline.

Recently (April 1-4.12), the market situation of butadiene rubber has slightly improved. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of April 12th, the price of butadiene rubber in the East China region was 13660 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37% from 13610 yuan/ton on April 1st. The price of raw material butadiene has slightly increased, and the cost of butadiene rubber continues to support; The supply of butadiene rubber has slightly declined; Downstream tire production has remained stable, with on-demand procurement of butadiene rubber. The price of butadiene rubber has mainly narrowed after a significant increase in the early stage.

Recently (4.1-4.12), the price of butadiene has slightly increased, and the cost support for butadiene rubber is strong. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 12th, the price of butadiene was 11700 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.52% from 11525 yuan/ton on April 1st.

Recently (4.1-4.12), the production of butadiene rubber has slightly rebounded.

Demand side: In the near future (4.1~4.12), downstream tire production is mainly stable, maintaining rigid support for butadiene rubber. It is understood that as of early April, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 80%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is close to 680%; But there is resistance from downstream towards high priced Shunding and a small amount of stocking.

Future Market Forecast:

From a technical perspective, analysts from Business Society believe that the graph of Business Society’s butadiene rubber index shows that after the 7-day moving average crossed the 30 day moving average in early February, it was overall above the 30 day moving average, and during this period, the price of butadiene rubber increased significantly; At present, the 7-day moving average is gradually approaching the 30 day moving average, and there may be a downward trend of breaking through levels in the later stage.

From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Business Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene is still at a high level, and the cost support for butadiene rubber is strong; Some early stage equipment has recently restarted, and there are also some equipment plans for maintenance in the later stage. The expected start of production of butadiene rubber is expected to remain low; The cost and start of production will continue to support the market for butadiene rubber. However, although downstream tire companies are still operating at a relatively high level, their resistance to the high priced supply of butadiene rubber has resulted in less than expected procurement efforts, putting pressure on the butadiene rubber market. Overall, the current butadiene rubber market may consolidate in the later stage.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong has been fluctuating and consolidating recently. This week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4775.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.79% month on month and a decrease of 8.83% year-on-year.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market has seen a narrow decline. In terms of supply, global coal supply is stable, domestic imports have increased, and the increase in domestic demand is not enough to support coal prices to continue operating at high levels; In terms of demand, the temperature has risen, the civilian electricity load has fallen, and the overall pressure on power plant inventory is relatively small. Currently, terminals mainly rely on long-term cooperative replenishment, and replenish warehouses according to demand. The demand for coal in the market is relatively flat, and the overall sentiment is more wait-and-see. It is expected that the short-term thermal coal market will maintain a volatile and weak operation. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors.

In recent times, the methanol market has been weak and volatile, with poor cost support. Enterprises are producing normally, and downstream procurement is maintaining strong demand. Business Society’s polyformaldehyde analysts predict that prices may slightly decline.

This week, the supply side of polyvinyl alcohol has shown positive support and stability, with the price center shifting upwards. As of April 10th, the benchmark price of polyvinyl alcohol for Shengyishe was 12266.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.54% compared to yesterday’s (12200.00 yuan/ton).

Supply side:

This week, the acetic acid market is relatively strong and upward. At the beginning of the week, the price of acetic acid fell to a relatively low level, and downstream market purchases increased. The mentality of enterprises was bullish, and the price of acetic acid rebounded after hitting the bottom. Subsequently, the inventory of manufacturers gradually decreased. With the improvement of market trading atmosphere, enterprises had a strong intention to rise, and with the support of mentality, the price of acetic acid continued to rise. As of March 29th, the average market price of acetic acid was 3100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to the price of 3000 yuan/ton on March 25th, an increase of 3.33%, and the price remained unchanged from the beginning of the month.

Recently, the calcium carbide market has been fluctuating and rising, and the increase in demand is the main factor contributing to the price increase. However, with the continuous updating and implementation of PVC maintenance plans, especially the increase in external sales of supporting calcium carbide, there is an expectation of a significant increase in calcium carbide supply by the end of the month. As of April 10th, the benchmark price of Shengyishe calcium carbide was 3016.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.56% compared to the beginning of this month (3000.00 yuan/ton).

Overall

Overall, the recent trend in the cost of polyvinyl alcohol has been relatively warm, providing slight positive support for the market. The supply side support is limited, and it is difficult for prices to continue to rise. Currently, intermediaries have no intention of lowering prices. In some regions, the equipment is restarting, and coupled with the continuous low inventory levels of various companies in the market, although the supply is stable in the face of favorable market support, the overall situation of weak demand has not significantly improved. Intermediaries are stocking up on demand, and downstream demand is purchasing, resulting in a flat trading atmosphere.