The continued depreciation of the RMB is expected to reduce imports of ethylene glycol
24, the central parity of RMB devaluation of 132 points to 6.7690, refresh the lowest level in 6 years. Due to the U.S. economic recovery form better, leading to enhanced the overall trend of dollar, depreciation of the RMB is still some expected. Due to the continued depreciation of the RMB, the importer operation regression cautious market expectations or will reduce imports. The factors and the price conduction, external bulk overall performance strong, businesses are optimistic about the market outlook of ethylene glycol.

Ethylene glycol futures listed businesses, actively preparing for the

In mid October China Commission approved the Dalian commodity exchange futures of ethylene glycol project application, this means that the ethylene glycol from futures officially listed for trading is a step closer. In order to ensure a greater initiative in the futures market, the mainstream of glycol traders getting goods enthusiasm increased sharply, leading to the recent ethylene glycol market trading atmosphere.

Good profitability of the downstream polyester, receiving ability

The terminal weaving the recent good performance, the devaluation of the renminbi to trade orders increased, while the domestic double 11 stocking was driven by the downstream polyester sales good. According to the statistical information of treasure island, the various specifications of polyester filament market prices firm, “profit” have gone all the way, one of the most profitable FDY in 600 yuan / ton, the worst POY in 250 yuan / ton, DTY profit 400 yuan / ton. To enhance the profitability of the polyester, the formation of effective support for the price of raw material of ethylene glycol.

Overall, although the crude oil are still large uncertainties, but the domestic ethylene glycol has successfully exceeded 5500 yuan / ton mark integer, with the continuous depreciation of the RMB is expected to reduce imports, deposit. In addition, the polyester profit is acceptable, and the strong performance of the overall market is still in the periphery, a certain increase in space.

In mid October, China Commission approved the Dalian commodity exchange futures project application of ethylene glycol. This boost, the domestic ethylene glycol started the current round of rising prices, the market mainstream discourse from the early 5200 yuan / ton starting position.

As of October 24th closing has risen to 5550 yuan / ton, up 6.73%.

Huaxi Village electronic disk can be seen in the figure, the current price has been successfully breaking the previous high of 5480 yuan, and with larger volume. The average was long, and the MACD index and KDJ index showed a strong.

From the analysis of the technical level, although the market is facing greater technical callback requirements, but the overall market strong trend has not changed.

According to Chung Petrochemical network statistics, the coastal port of Ningbo port inventory 120 thousand tons (including Heyuan private sources), Jiangsu port inventory 510 thousand tons, Southern China port inventory 113 thousand tons (including Fujian). Which Guangdong area 93 thousand tons, 20 thousand tons of Fujian.

The recent port to port is less, and more for olefin plant use, market circulation of goods less, port stocks appear to stock trend.

Four, post market forecast

In summary, the mainland market is expected next month down sharply as methanol. At present, the overall market downstream trading is poor, pre or large, high on the downstream are more inconsistent, prices have sharply lower expectations. The main distribution center for the east port of imported methanol, the future will build the northern import Jingtang Port methanol distribution center.

At present, the use of methanol has three companies, Tangshan Sanyou demand of 130 thousand tons / year, Tangshan Xuyang needs 200 thousand tons / year, the realm of Tangshan needs 600 thousand tons / year, the total demand of 930 thousand tons / year; the Tangshan state two methanol demand of 1 million 200 thousand tons / year under construction, is expected to end this year put into operation, then, the Tangshan market demand will reach 2 million 130 thousand tons / year of methanol. While the local existing three methanol production enterprises, Tangshan run 200 thousand tons / year, 100 thousand tons / year, the ancient Tangshan jade Tang Shanwan Feng Xing 100 thousand tons / year, total production of 400 thousand tons / year.

Thus, Tangshan methanol market now demand gap of 530 thousand tons / year, by the end of this year, Tangshan methanol demand gap will reach 1 million 730 thousand tons / year. But because of the east port of the futures price spot market fluctuate obviously, spot market trading is more stalemate, but the port inventory tradable goods less, support market prices, steady decline in port market next month, but it should not be like the mainland market has a larger decline.

After mid, Guodian yinglite (000635 market, buy) 500 thousand tons, 600 thousand tons of coal in Yulin, Yulin Yanzhou Mining (1 million 800 thousand tons of methanol, 600 thousand tons of olefins all foreign mining equipment maintenance etc.), after mid market due to the high price of the large increase in the downstream demand is sluggish, conflict, Shandong and other regions began to appear callback trend.

That new Shenhua Ningxia coal 1 million tons / year methanol plant is currently testing, plans to put into operation in November, put into operation once a week or will reduce 20 thousand tons of production capacity, coupled with the pre maintenance device will resume, methanol market in November is facing greater pressure on the back, and the decline or will not be small.

Two, the port market

October 2016 East / Southern China port area price chart

In October, the port of import cargo to the port less centralized replenishment downstream users, the port area inventory decreased significantly, the overall circulation of tight supply, the majority of traders to sell, resulting in methanol prices continued to increase, the market price in 200-320 yuan / ton.

The market is to inventory status, is expected in November the eastern port market steady decline, but the price floating space is limited; Southern China dock ship with CNOOC heard the explosion, resulting in the end of October postponed the sources of imports to Hong Kong, Southern China port Southern China port supply continued tension, a larger price in 300-320 yuan / ton.

Three, the port inventory situation

First, the mainland market

In October 2016, the mainland methanol market price chart

Methanol market in October for National Day holiday return downstream replenishment enthusiasm is good, factory shipments, manufacturers inventory low, the market rose significantly, the increase in the 170-470 yuan / ton.

In early October, Inner Mongolia Jiutai, Shanxi coking 1 million tons (600740 market, buy) 400 thousand tons, 150 thousand tons of Shanxi Everbright, Sichuan Chuanwei 870 thousand tons, 250 thousand tons of Shandong alliance device maintenance, supply of local mainland nervous, Jan Huojin price.