Aluminum prices fluctuated horizontally in July
Aluminum prices fluctuated horizontally in July. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 31, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20596.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.91% from the market average price of 20786.67 yuan/ton on July 1.
Aluminum prices may experience strong fluctuations in August
Supply side: In August 2025, the supply of electrolytic aluminum will present a dual track pattern of “domestic stable growth+overseas supplementation”. Domestically, Yunnan trade in projects (such as Hongtai with a production capacity of 87790 tons) will gradually start production in late August, and with the completion of Inner Mongolia Huayun Phase III, the expected operating capacity will increase to 43.52 million tons (month on month+100000 tons), with a monthly output growth of 2.5% year-on-year to 3.726 million tons. Overseas supply should not be underestimated, with electrolytic aluminum production in countries such as Brazil and South Africa increasing by over 30% year-on-year. The scale of Russian aluminum entering the country through direct trade remains high (imports accounted for nearly 90% from January to June). In terms of alumina, domestic production increased by 3.5% year-on-year to 7.336 million tons, coupled with the easing of the tight delivery capacity problem in Xinjiang (after mid August), the cost side support has weakened. At the inventory level, as of July 31, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased to 544000 tons, and it is expected to continue the trend of accumulated inventory in August, with a high point of 550000 tons.
On the demand side: In early August, it was still the traditional off-season for consumption, and downstream processing enterprises maintained low operating rates (50% for aluminum profiles and 70% for cables). However, after mid August, the demand for “Golden September and Silver October” stocking gradually started, and aluminum rod inventory was slightly reduced, while aluminum plate and foil orders improved month on month. In the field of new energy, the production of photovoltaic modules remained unchanged in August compared to the previous month, and the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales of new energy vehicles slowed down to 15%. However, policy incentives (such as the implementation of “recognizing houses but not loans” in China) may indirectly drive the demand for construction aluminum. Overall, the demand side presents a game pattern of “weak reality in the off-season” and “strong expectations in the peak season”.
Macro influencing factors:
Starting from August 1st, the United States has imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian aluminum products, which may lead to the flow of South American aluminum to the Chinese market and exacerbate domestic supply pressure.
Domestic policies provide support: special bond issuance accelerates, private economic support measures and other stable growth policies are intensified to boost market sentiment in the short term, but the “anti involution” policy regulates industry competition order.
The phased easing of tariffs between China and the United States (suspending 24% tariffs and retaining 10% tariffs) has eased concerns about trade frictions, but there is still uncertainty after the 90 day buffer period.
Future expectations

In the short term, aluminum prices in August will show a trend of weak first and then strong. The core driving factor has shifted from “inventory accumulation” to “peak season expectations and policy games”. Under the main trend of loose supply and weak demand, the upward space of aluminum prices is limited, and the expected operating range is 20300-21100 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of polyester staple fiber fluctuated slightly and declined in July. As of July 30th, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6613 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.81% from the beginning of the month.
Recently, due to the combined impact of long and short factors, the traditional fuel consumption peak season in the United States is still ongoing, and supply side risks have not been eliminated. International oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term. As of July 29th, the settlement price of the September WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $69.21 per barrel, and the settlement price of the September Brent crude oil futures contract was $72.51 per barrel.
The domestic PTA spot market in July showed a V-shaped trend, with an average price of 4889 yuan/ton in the East China PTA market as of July 30th, a decrease of 3.79% from the beginning of the month. In the first half of the month, the cost support for crude oil fluctuations was limited, and the PTA industry’s capacity expansion expectations were combined with polyester production reduction expectations. Under the weak supply-demand situation, PTA showed a weak pattern. But with the recovery of macro sentiment and the firm trend of commodities, the PTA market rebounded weakly due to this impact.
Due to multiple factors such as high temperature weather and traditional off-season, the improvement of demand is weak. Downstream yarn factories have insufficient orders, and losses have begun to expand, hindering procurement enthusiasm and maintaining essential procurement. Under the atmosphere of macroeconomic sentiment warming at the end of the month, it stimulated buying sentiment and led to a slight increase in demand.
Business analysts believe that the macro sentiment has rebounded and costs have rebounded weakly. There has been some replenishment of inventory at the low end, and inventory pressure in polyester short fiber factories has eased. However, the subsequent supply and demand expectations are still weak, and the upward drive is limited. It is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber in August will still mainly follow the fluctuations of cost and demand.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aniline market performed weakly in July. On July 1st, the market price of aniline was 7900 yuan/ton, and on July 29th it was 7375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.65% during the month and a decrease of 27.16% compared to the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and Review
The aniline market in July was mainly affected by costs and its own supply and demand. At the beginning of the month, mainstream factories led the decline and prices were widely lowered. Multiple sets of maintenance devices were restarted one after another within the week, and the supply side weakened. Due to the decline in crude oil prices and high port inventories, the raw material pure benzene experienced a weak downward trend, while aniline saw a wide decline, with the lowest price dropping to 7000 yuan/ton. Subsequently, aniline fell to a low level, and low prices began to rise. Downstream demand entered the market, and new orders were scarce. Upstream pure benzene oscillates narrowly, but it still supports aniline. In mid to late July, the market supply and demand remained stable, and aniline was mainly affected by fluctuations in raw materials, with the overall increase being smaller than the decrease.
Pure benzene: The pure benzene market fluctuated in July, with the lowest price occurring on July 8th due to its own supply and demand as well as macro privacy concerns. On July 1st, the average price of pure benzene was 5942 yuan/ton, and on July 29th, the average price was 5988 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 0.74%.
3、 Future expectations
The current supply of aniline in the market is stable, with average demand, which continues to drive up downstream resistance. In addition, the weak trend of pure benzene is expected to lead to a narrow consolidation and operation of the aniline market in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been rising and then falling recently (7.22~7.28), with an overall upward trend. As of July 28th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 15125 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11% from 15108 yuan/ton on the 22nd, with a weekly high of 15633 yuan/ton. On the one hand, downstream tire production has remained stable, providing essential support for natural rubber. On the other hand, the situation in Thailand and Cambodia has driven up natural rubber prices in the short term. As of July 28th, the mainstream price for 24 years of Guangken, Baodao, and Haibao latex in Qingdao area is 15000-15250 yuan/ton.
As of July 25th, the price of Thai glue was 55.30 baht/kg, an increase of 0.91% from 54.80 baht/kg on July 22nd. At present, domestic production areas have entered a period of production reduction and shutdown. In addition, although overseas main production areas are still in the peak season of rubber production, the impact of Southeast Asian geopolitical conflicts has provided support for the price of natural rubber raw materials in the short term.
Recently (7.22~7.28), natural rubber inventories have slightly increased, which has a bearish impact on the natural rubber market. As of July 27, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 640400 tons, an increase of 6000 tons or 0.91% compared to the previous period.
Recently (7.22~7.28), the overall stability of downstream tire production has provided essential support for the natural rubber market. As of July 25th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has slightly increased to around 7.5%; The construction of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong Province has slightly increased to around 6.5%.
Market forecast: The current high prices of raw materials both domestically and internationally, as well as stable downstream tire production, provide support for the Tianjin rubber market. However, on the one hand, Tianjin rubber port inventory remains high, which is bearish for the Tianjin rubber market. Furthermore, with the cooling of the situation in Southeast Asia, it is expected that the natural rubber market will experience a slight decline in volatility in the later period.

1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, this week (7.21-25), the PVC spot market broke away from the weak and volatile market, and made efforts to rise, with a strong upward trend. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in the East China market was 5024 yuan/ton, up 3.87% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
Supply side: This week, the atmosphere of speculation in the PVC spot market has gradually strengthened, driven by the significant rise in the futures market, the spot market has continued to climb. The market performance has improved in terms of supply and demand, and the PVC production rate has remained stable this week, maintaining the previous level of production rate. The upward trend is mainly based on the increase in trading volume and the improvement of market sentiment.
In terms of inventory, the market has maintained a high trading volume recently, but the market is still in the stage of destocking, mainly due to the large amount of basic inventory in the market, and the current spot supply side remains abundant.
On the cost side: This week, the price of calcium carbide market has mainly fallen, and the market has entered a bottoming stage. According to the monitoring of Business Society, the weekly decline of calcium carbide is 1.35%. From this, it can be seen that the cost side has not brought any impetus to PVC, and the increase in downstream procurement has a certain stimulating effect, which has led to a rebound trend in PVC prices.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, there will be sufficient PVC supply, and the operating rate of manufacturers will remain at a high level. The inventory of enterprises is still generally high, and it needs to be continuously reduced in the later stage. The rebound of the short-term futures market is mainly due to the improvement of market sentiment and the driving force of the futures market, and the lack of sustained improvement in PVC fundamentals. As downstream procurement returns to rationality, the positive support effect is not significant. We should be cautious about the magnitude of the increase.