According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 1 to March 16, 2026, the domestic toluene market showed significant fluctuations and an overall upward trend, with a cumulative increase of 30.7% within half a month as of March 16. This market fluctuation is mainly influenced by multiple positive factors such as geopolitical conflicts leading to changes in crude oil prices, domestic supply contraction, and weak downstream demand.
Cost wise: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in the first half of March, international crude oil prices fluctuated significantly, becoming the core cost support driving the upward trend of toluene prices. Affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for navigation. As an important channel for global oil transportation, it has raised concerns about global crude oil supply and driven a significant surge in international oil prices. On March 10th, due to the easing of market concerns about the impact of the Middle East conflict, oil prices experienced a significant decline, with the lowest price of US crude oil falling to $84.43 per barrel, indicating a large overall fluctuation. As of March 13th, the settlement price of the April WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $98.71 per barrel; The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for May is $103.14 per barrel. The significant increase in crude oil prices directly drives up the production cost of toluene, providing core support for the upward trend of market prices. However, the short-term correction of oil prices has also led to a temporary decline in toluene prices, which has simultaneously amplified the volatility of the toluene market.
Supply side:
In the first half of March, the overall supply of toluene in China showed a shrinking trend, coupled with regional market differentiation, which provided strong support for prices. The operating load of domestic and surrounding refineries has decreased, and some main refinery units have reduced their load, resulting in a significant reduction in supply and driving local prices to strengthen; The refineries in the surrounding major production areas have also simultaneously reduced their load, further exacerbating the global tight supply situation and supporting the firm domestic price of toluene.
At the same time, there are slight differences in the trend between domestic regions, but the overall trend is upward. Among them, Shandong region was driven by the expectation of supply tightening, with active negotiations in the early stage and rapid price increases. Later, due to high prices, downstream facilities were shut down, and prices fell back; The supply in Jiangsu region is relatively loose, and overall price fluctuations are relatively mild, with slightly weak spot transactions; Refineries in Guangdong region have generally reduced their burden, resulting in overall tight supply and supporting regional prices. However, downstream production is limited, procurement intentions are low, and transactions are limited. In addition, some domestic refineries have entered the maintenance season, coupled with the obstruction of imported goods supply, exacerbating the expectation of supply tightening. Holders of goods are reluctant to sell and pushing prices higher, further boosting prices.
Demand side:
In the first half of March, the overall demand for toluene in China showed a pattern of “weak demand and insufficient support”, with limited demand support from the PX industry as the core. Coupled with the obstruction of cost transfer, it failed to effectively boost the price of toluene and to some extent suppressed the market increase. The overall demand performance was in sharp contrast to the contraction of the supply side, showing a stage characteristic of supply-demand imbalance. As the core downstream field of toluene, the PX industry entered the maintenance season in March. Multiple sets of PX units at home and abroad underwent centralized maintenance or load reduction, directly leading to a reduction in the demand for toluene procurement. The expected operating load of PX units further decreased to a low level, and the trend of demand shrinkage was obvious.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PX quotation of Sinopec Sales Company fluctuated upward in the first half of March. On March 1st, the quotation was about 7300 yuan/ton, and as of March 16th, it rose to 10050 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 37.7% in the first half of the month; The price of PX in Asia also fluctuated and rose, with an average price of about $1180/ton on March 1st, rising to $1490/ton on March 16th, a cumulative increase of 26.3%. The price increase in foreign markets was slightly lower than that in China.
Market forecast:
Overall, the short-term toluene market is expected to maintain a high volatility trend, with geopolitical conflicts and fluctuations in crude oil prices remaining core cost support variables; The maintenance and load reduction of domestic and foreign refineries continue, and the pattern of supply reduction is difficult to change in the short term, which provides certain support for prices. Continuous attention should be paid to geopolitical dynamics, crude oil trends, and the recovery of PX industry operations.

This week, the domestic fluorite price trend has risen. As of the weekend, the average domestic fluorite price was 3468.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.54% from the beginning of the week price of 3450 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.19%.
Supply side: Multiple factors affecting the tightness of fluorite spot prices
1. The resumption of production after the holiday fell short of expectations, and the operating rate in the main production areas was sluggish
After the Spring Festival, the overall progress of resumption of work in domestic fluorite mines and beneficiation plants is slow, and the core production areas in the north are constrained by weather and policies, resulting in a much lower operating load than the same period in previous years. As the main production area of fluorite in China, Inner Mongolia was still affected by low temperature weather in early March, which hindered mining and transportation. In addition, during the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, safety and environmental protection inspections were intensified, and some small and medium-sized mines were shut down for rectification, resulting in limited release of compliant production capacity; Although production areas such as Jiangxi, Zhejiang, and Fujian in the south are gradually resuming work, they are constrained by tight raw ore supply and slow improvement in the operating rate of beneficiation plants, making it difficult to make up for the supply gap in the north. The overall operating rate of fluorite in the country remains low, and the spot output is lower than market expectations.
2. Normalization of industry regulation and continuous clearance of existing production capacity
As a national strategic scarce mineral, fluorite has been continuously upgraded in safety and environmental control in recent years, with increased efforts to control the total amount of mining and accelerated elimination of backward small and medium-sized mines, leading to a continuous increase in industry concentration. The approval process for new mines is strict, and mineral exploration is difficult. The effective production capacity growth of domestic fluorite is weak, and high-grade raw ore is becoming increasingly scarce. At the same time, the normalization of mining rectification and production restrictions has further compressed the market circulation of goods. Manufacturers’ inventories are generally at a low level, and traders have limited stock reserves and extremely low willingness to sell at low prices, forming a market pattern of “less goods, higher prices”.
3. Limited import supplementation makes it difficult to alleviate the domestic supply-demand gap
Although the domestic dependence on foreign fluorite exceeds 30%, the supply of overseas sources has also been tight recently, and there has been no significant increase in import volume. Due to transportation and production capacity limitations, major import sources such as Mongolia have received less fluorite than expected, and import costs remain high, making it difficult to effectively supplement the domestic spot shortage, further exacerbating the domestic supply shortage and supporting the strengthening of domestic trade prices.
Demand side: downstream fluorine chemical industry recovery requires urgent support gradually emerging
1. Hydrofluoric acid market rebounds, driving demand for raw material procurement
The downstream anhydrous hydrofluoric acid market is strengthening synchronously, with mainstream delivery prices rising to 12500-13000 yuan/ton. Some enterprises have restarted their facilities and their operating rates have rebounded, leading to an increase in the demand for fluorite raw materials. Although hydrofluoric acid enterprises have been affected by the price increase of sulfuric acid and other auxiliary materials, their profit margins have been compressed, and they tend to purchase high priced fluorite rationally. However, the demand for stocking during peak seasons is gradually released, and the trading center of fluorite is steadily shifting upwards under the support of essential needs. Downstream price increases are further transmitted to the upstream raw material end.

2. The implementation of refrigerant quotas and the expected increase in stocking during peak seasons
The refrigerant quota policy will be officially implemented in 2026, further increasing industry concentration and orderly release of production capacity by top enterprises. Coupled with the approaching summer air conditioning refrigeration peak season, downstream refrigerant companies will stock up in advance, driving the recovery of upstream demand for hydrofluoric acid and fluorite. At the same time, the demand for fluorine chemical products in the fields of new energy and new materials continues to grow. The growth rate of demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate, fluorine-containing polymers and other products is impressive, indirectly driving the demand for fluorite. The resilience of medium and long-term demand is highlighted, providing support for fluorite prices.
Market forecast: The tight supply-demand balance in the domestic fluorite market is difficult to change, and prices still have upward momentum. On the supply side, weather and policy controls in northern production areas will continue, making it difficult to accelerate the resumption of mining production in the short term, and the low inventory pattern will continue; On the demand side, with the rise in temperature, the downstream fluorine chemical production rate will further increase, and the demand for stocking during peak season will continue to be released. Cost and emotional support are still present, and it is expected that the price of fluorite will maintain a strong oscillation trend, and some high-grade source quotations are expected to further rise.

Product Name: Pure Benzene
Latest price: On March 12th, the average market price was 8506.67 yuan/ton. The price has increased by 8.55% compared to the previous trading day.
Analysis: The market price of pure benzene has increased today. The international crude oil market prices have risen, with a significant surge after the opening of the Asian session, which has led to an increase in the price of pure benzene in the market. Sinopec’s listing price has been raised by 400 yuan/ton, with an execution of 8400 yuan/ton, to be implemented on March 12th. Shandong local refining enterprises have raised their quotations, with factory prices around 8300-8800 yuan/ton. At present, the progress of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East remains the primary focus of attention. At the same time, we need to be alert to negative factors. The easing of conflicts may lead to a decline in the geopolitical premium of crude oil, and the pure benzene market still needs to pay more attention to the trend of raw materials.

1、 Price data
As of March 11th, the benchmark price of sulfur in Shengyi Society was 4616.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.07% compared to the beginning of this month (3910.00 yuan/ton).
upper reaches:
International crude oil (Brent) has increased by about 5% -7% since March, pushing up the cost of sulfur production and processing; Natural gas (European TTF) increased by about 8% -10% in March, further raising energy costs.
Downstream:
Since March, sulfuric acid has increased by about 12% -15%, monoammonium phosphate by about 6% -8%, and diammonium phosphate by about 5% -7%.
2、 Rising factors
1. Supply and demand side:
Supply side: Domestic sulfur plants have entered the spring centralized maintenance period, with a phased decrease in production and a reduction in market supply; Logistics transportation in some regions is hindered, and delays in arrival at ports and inland areas further exacerbate the tight supply of spot goods.
Demand side: The peak season for spring plowing and fertilizer preparation is approaching, and downstream industries such as phosphate fertilizer and sulfuric acid have increased their operating rates, resulting in a significant increase in demand for sulfur; In the early stage, downstream enterprises’ inventory was at a low level. Under the expectation of price increases, they concentrated on replenishing inventory, and their purchasing enthusiasm was high, further driving up market demand.
2. Market sentiment:
Traders and downstream enterprises are generally bullish on the future market, actively hoarding and chasing high purchases, resulting in a significant increase in market trading activity; The tight supply of spot goods combined with the recovery of demand has strengthened the market’s expectation of price increases, driving prices to rise rapidly.
3. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East:
Cost side: The tense situation in the Middle East has pushed up international crude oil and natural gas prices, while sulfur is a byproduct of petroleum refining and natural gas processing. The rise in energy prices directly raises the production and transportation costs of sulfur, providing cost support for domestic prices.
Geopolitical conflicts have intensified global commodity hedging sentiment, with funds flowing into the energy and chemical sectors, driving stronger expectations for prices of basic chemicals such as sulfur; As an important global oil and gas production area and sulfur export destination, the Middle East’s concerns about “future supply disruptions” have been reflected in the current prices in advance, further strengthening the expectation of price increases.
3、 Future prospects
In the short term, domestic equipment maintenance will continue, and the tight spot market situation is difficult to quickly ease. Coupled with the cost and emotional support brought by geopolitical risks, sulfur prices are expected to maintain a high and strong operation.
In the medium term, attention should be paid to the release of production capacity after the completion of equipment maintenance, changes in downstream demand after the end of spring plowing, and the actual impact of the evolving situation in the Middle East on the global supply chain, in order to be alert to the risk of high-level pullbacks.
Summary: The core logic behind the rise in sulfur prices this week is the mismatch between domestic supply and demand and the sentiment of merchants chasing long positions. The Middle East geopolitical risks, through cost increases, supply concerns, and emotional transmission, have played a catalytic role in amplifying and strengthening the upward trend, rather than the fundamental reason for this round of price increases.

Product Name: Pure Benzene
Latest price: On March 10th, the average market price was 9670 yuan/ton. The price has decreased by 19.43% compared to the previous trading day.
Analysis: The market price of pure benzene has significantly decreased today. With the decline in international oil prices, the price of pure benzene in the market has followed suit. Sinopec’s listing price has been lowered by 3000 yuan/ton, with an implementation of 8000 yuan/ton, to be implemented on March 10th. Today, Shandong’s local refining enterprises collectively adjusted their ex factory prices to around 8500-10000 yuan/ton. The international oil price and energy and chemical product prices have plummeted in tandem, and the sentiment in the pure benzene market is currently unstable. It is necessary to pay more attention to the trend of raw materials.