This week weekend propane price is 4357 yuan / ton, the market down, down 3.41%.

Analysis of influencing factors

Products: due to the low price for good support, at present no negative impact on refinery shipments. But as prices continue to rise, downstream businesses will inevitably breed resentment. Civil gas and other related market rally has good convergence, low for propane was also gradually consumed.

The industrial chain: from the demand point of view, relying on the advantage of the pressure of the propane as everyone knows in winter is so popular, on the one hand, propane resources in northeast region of strong absorptive capacity, without considering the impact factors of inlet, domestic propane free sales; on the other hand, especially along the South market and Southern China area in the region less, many manufacturers follow the civil actively adjust, local high prices, more beneficial to the positive trend of the propane market.

Industry: imported, Saudi Aramco announced in January CP, the crude oil market optimistic expectations and winter in the northern hemisphere needs good support shamei CP ushered in the boom. Propane is 435 dollars / ton, compared with last month rose 55 U.S. dollars / ton; butane 495 dollars / ton, compared with last month rose 75 U.S. dollars / ton. About the goods or propane landed cost of 3570 yuan / ton, 4050 yuan / ton butane.

Industrial chain: crude oil, the international energy agency believes that global excess supply situation is eased, and crude oil futures rebounded, the dollar fell also supported oil market atmosphere. But the U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased, the international price of oil is limited. As of Friday (January 20th) the New York Mercantile Exchange in February WTI crude oil contract closing price of 52.42 U.S. dollars / barrel, up 1.05 U.S. dollars / barrel; London Intercontinental Exchange, March Brent crude contract closing price of 55.49 U.S. dollars / barrel, up $1.33 / barrel; propylene market scope, market transport restrictions such as holidays, the factory will offer steady, discuss turnover decreased significantly, buying part of on-demand procurement; near the end of the year, the downstream market of butyl stocking positive market sentiment improved.

Market forecast:

The current domestic n-butanol factory equipment operating rate is normal, the market atmosphere of peace, before and after the Spring Festival holiday mainstream manufacturers orders sales have been ahead of schedule, inventory slightly nervous, even a tight supply situation; the east port of supply side stability. Next week is the Spring Festival approaching, n-butanol market will continue the consolidation operation, price fluctuation co..

This week domestic n-butanol market consolidation operation, mainstream manufacturers offer a slight increase; as of Friday (January 20th), the domestic butanol ex factory price of 6120 yuan / ton, rose 1.07% this week to three months for a cycle or 5.34%.

Market analysis:

Macro: in December 2016, the business community of commodity supply and demand index (BCI) were 0.49, rose to 5.39%, reflecting the monthly manufacturing economy last month was the expansion of the state economy, rising trend evident.

Product: this week butanol narrow market consolidation, the overall offer slightly raised 100 yuan / ton. To discuss the Shandong mainstream market week 6100-6200 yuan / ton; Jiangsu and n-butanol mainstream market offer 6300-6400 yuan / ton.

Bring a strong margin of safety synthetic rubber prices for natural rubber.

Affected by rising crude oil prices led to oil products and the change of production process, the main raw material of synthetic rubber butadiene synthetic rubber prices rose sharply driven by the rapid rise in prices. Synthetic rubber and natural rubber has a certain role in the field of downstream tire replacement. Due to the relatively low cost of synthetic rubber, the history of synthetic rubber prices basically under the price of natural rubber. This round of rapid synthetic rubber rose sharply appeared upside down will greatly enhance the natural rubber prices uncertainty, improve the natural rubber safety margin upward.

The association of natural rubber producing countries (ANRPC) said on Friday, due to the flood affected Thailand tapping activities in the first quarter of 2017, the global natural rubber production is likely to decline, the first quarter of the natural rubber production is expected to 0.8% yoy to 2 million 440 thousand tons. The association said in a statement, the 2017 members of the ANRPC annual output is expected to rise by 4% to 11 million 200 thousand tons, the previous three years yields were low. Members of the association of rubber production accounted for 92% of the world’s total output.

Thailand flood for the specific yield to wait until after the show stop cutting, for short-term supply to wait until after the Spring Festival in order to prove or disprove. The flood is more from the promotion of market supply and demand tightening expected point boost natural rubber prices. Rita futures, HuJiao 1705 contract on short-term pressure of 22000 yuan / ton, in the 19600 yuan / ton -22000 yuan / ton range trading.

daily lead: the four quarter of 2016, a gorgeous caprolactam market rise, and all the years of losses decadent trend, industry profits hit record highs, but in 2017, caprolactam market gained momentum blocked, inside trading atmosphere light, the Spring Festival of the caprolactam market is also worth looking forward to?

2016 is the rapid development of the caprolactam industry a year, new capacity hard end production, new capacity will continue to radical future; caprolactam market in 2016 is a very unusual year, the market price is a continuation of the 2015 first decadent trend, then the year after the end of the shock, finally “soaring”, industry profits are finally losses for profit.

2015-2016 price of East China caprolactam market chart

The second half of 2015, caprolactam market plunged, in and around the lunar new year, hit a record low, industry losses reached 2000 yuan / ton, “buy or not to buy up” mood, downstream enterprises stocking before the Spring Festival, the festival returned enterprises procurement of raw materials, resulting in the first half of 2016 the market of caprolactam the overall showed a moderate rising trend.

The caprolactam market in the second half of the extraordinary really appear. In July, August by caprolactam plant maintenance in batches, affect the operating load continued to decline and the G20 summit, the floor price rose nearly 2000 yuan / ton range, while the G20 terminal after the summit, the textile industry finished inventory and inventory of raw materials are low, and the downstream nylon chips Market, from the early October to continue to push up losses, digest a lot of inventory of raw materials, the caprolactam market supply situation, come again at the end of October, coupled with the substantial increase in raw material benzene shortage and price, so the downstream demand, and the cost of supporting strong, caprolactam market rise again ignited enthusiasm. 11, December, caprolactam market prices have been nearly two years since the brush high profit of the industry is also gradually increased.

Domestic caprolactam production enterprises in the new statistical device

According to statistics, in 2016 China’s total production capacity of caprolactam in 2 million 630 thousand tons, the effective production capacity at 2 million 350 thousand tons, production capacity is only 300 thousand tons, but in 2017 the new caprolactam production capacity at 600 thousand tons, is expected in 2017 will be a year of rapid development of caprolactam industry, supply will be more adequate, price competition will be more intense. But after the return, the market trend of caprolactam industry by supply and demand a greater impact, influence the capacity of the new temporary co..

The four quarter of 2016, caprolactam market price all the way “, and the limited supply stride forward singing militant songs”, so the amount of stock less downstream before the spring festival. After the holiday, the device starts to maintain a low rate of Caprolactam

The venue, or still maintain tight supply situation, coupled with the benzene market focus or remain strong, the cost of support can be expected, after the return, caprolactam market temporarily wait-and-see consolidation, with lower purchasing motivation, market focus or steady run stronger.