Price Trend

Business associations: Maleic anhydride market continued downward trend in June

According to data from business associations, the average price of maleic anhydride offered at the end of the month was 6 600.00 yuan/ton (including taxes), with a monthly increase or decrease of -5.04%.

II. Market Analysis

Product: Maleic anhydride market continued to decline in June. Crude oil rebounded in June, downstream resin factories due to environmental and economic factors, low start-up rate, market continued to weaken, the demand for maleic anhydride is general. In June, the domestic maleic anhydride start-up rate increased, the main factories were operating normally, and the domestic supply of maleic anhydride was sufficient. Downstream enterprises and traders have low inquiry intentions, mainly to maintain on-demand procurement, and market transactions are general.

Industry chain: The rebound of crude oil bottoming in June supports the prices of n-butane and pure benzene. Downstream resins factories started because of environmental factors, market sentiment is weak. Benzene loss situation is aggravated, and the rise in oil prices has led to the rise in the price of pure benzene upstream raw materials. The price of n-butane is still hovering at a low price, the market is well supplied, and the downstream is still in the off-season. In July, maleic anhydride is expected to maintain the finishing trend.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of maleic anhydride products from Business Society Chemical Branch believe that at present, the domestic maleic anhydride market is expected to continue to consolidate in July.

According to the data of business associations, the domestic sulphur market declined on July 2, with the average ex-factory price of sulphur market in eastern China being 963.33 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.35%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic sulphur market prices have been lowered as a whole. The prices of refineries have been flexibly lowered by 20-50 yuan/ton, solid sulphur quoted by 810-1000 yuan/ton and liquid sulphur by 780-950 yuan/ton. The market performance was cold and there was less real-life negotiation.

Industry chain: The market price of downstream sulphuric acid in Shandong is rising, but the enthusiasm of customer demand is general, the market support is limited, and the future sulphur market is mainly on the lookout.

III. Price Forecast

According to business associations, the domestic sulphur market will remain stable in the short term.

Price data:

According to the monitoring data of business associations’list, the domestic bromine market continued to decline in June, and the industry started to work normally as a whole. At the beginning of the month, the average bromine price was about 35,000 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, it fell to about 34,000 yuan/ton, with a drop of 2.86% in the month, up by 20.97% compared with the same period last year.

II. Cause Analysis

Products: In June, the domestic bromine market was well supplied, the productivity of seawater bromine enterprises reached its peak, and some bromine enterprises had a certain stock accumulation. However, the downstream market gradually entered the off-season, the demand for bromine was weak, and the industry as a whole gradually showed a situation of oversupply. For some start-up enterprises, such as Dongyue Fine Chemical Company, Shandong Haihua Company, Shandong Haiwang Chemical Company, Tianjin Changlu Haijing Company, etc. At present, the mainstream quotation of enterprises is about 33500-34000 yuan/ton, and some of the real orders are on the low side.

Industry Chain: The upstream industry of bromide in June rose and fell differently: the sulfur market rose first and then stabilized in a month, with an increase of 4.18%, and the current quotation of 996 yuan/ton; the caustic soda market shocked and adjusted within a month, with a slight increase of 1.06%, and the current quotation of 712 yuan/ton; the soda market dropped by 9.01% in a month, and the current quotation of 1783 yuan/ton; The acid price fluctuated upwards, up 4.88% in the month, and the current quotation is about 215 yuan/ton. At present, the downstream bromine flame retardant industry is in the off-season, the overall demand is not good, the bromine price support is insufficient, pharmaceutical and agricultural intermediates and other industries can be purchased.

3. Future Market Forecast

Bromine industry analysts of business associations believe that the production of domestic bromine market enterprises is in the peak season. Recently, the environmental protection group inspected the Bohai Rim, which has a certain impact on bromine production. However, downstream users just need to be weak, and the market as a whole is in a relatively balanced state in a short time. It is expected that bromine prices will remain stable for a long time in the future. Online vision will continue to show a downward trend.

According to the survey data of business associations, the average market price in East China is about 1716.67 yuan per ton. The light soda commodity index on July 1 was 88.03, down 3.42 points from yesterday, down 25.31% from 117.86 points in the cycle (2017-11-21), and up 39.40% from 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

Domestic soda market is mainly stable, and enterprises are on the sidelines. At present, the mainstream factory price of light alkali in China is 1450-1700 yuan/ton, and the terminal price of heavy alkali is 1750-1900 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price can be further discussed. The domestic soda ash market has a narrow fluctuation and is relatively stable as a whole. Lightweight alkali market continues to decline, manufacturers shipment situation is general.

Soda analysts in business associations believe that the recent start-up load of soda manufacturers continues to rise, and the supply of goods is sufficient. Soda soda manufacturers have a high inventory. Downstream demand is sluggish, more cautious wait-and-see market-oriented. The market is short of good news. It is expected that the domestic soda market will operate steadily in a multi-dimensional way in the short term, with the focus of attention mainly on wait-and-see. The downstream market demand will also be seen in detail.

Global Data said that driven by Asia and the Middle East, global polypropylene production is expected to increase by 34% from 88.57 million tons per year in 2019 to 118.6 million tons per year in 2023.

According to the company’s report Global Prospects for Polypropylene Industry 2023 – Prospects for Capacity and Capital Expenditure, there are about 108 polypropylene plants planned and announced for production in the next four years, mainly in Asia and the Middle East.

Asia’s polypropylene production capacity is expected to increase from 51.61 million tons per year in 2019 to 65.33 million tons per year in 2023, with an average annual growth of 5.9%. In 2023, China’s production capacity in the region will increase by about 11.63 million tons per year. The main new capacity will come from Wuhan Polypropylene Plant No. 2 of Sinopec Wuhan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and will reach 1.1 million tons per year by 2023.

Dayan and Kharade, oil and gas analyst at GlobalData, said: “As urbanization progresses and income levels continue to rise, demand for polypropylene, mainly from packaging, is boosting large-scale capacity growth in China and India. These two countries are expected to account for 40% of global capacity growth in the outlook period.

GlobalData identified the Middle East as the second highest area for PP production growth, with an average annual growth rate of 11.8% from 9.22 million tons per year in 2019 to 14.8 million tons per year in 2023. The main new capacity will come from an announced plant, Jam Polypropylene’s Assaluyeh Polypropylene Plant 2, which will reach 550,000 tons per year by 2023.

By 2023, Russia will increase production capacity by about 2.53 million tons per year in all countries.

Africa will be the fourth highest region, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.15 million tons by 2023, up from 1.49 million tons in 2019. By 2023, Egypt’s contribution to Africa will reach about 1.33 million tons, ranking first in Africa. The main additional capacity will come from the Ain Sokhna polypropylene plant of Taril Petrochemical Company, which will reach 880,000 tons per year by 2023.

North American polypropylene production is expected to grow at an annual rate of 5%, from 8.97 million tons per year in 2019 to 1.95 million tons per year in 2023. By 2023, the United States is expected to be the fastest-growing country in the region, with an additional capacity of 1.15 million tons per year.