1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, in 2019, the domestic nickel market showed a trend of small fluctuation followed by big ups and downs. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the nickel price rose sharply in 2019. At the beginning of the year, the nickel price was 89508.33 yuan / ton, and at the end of the year, it was 113466.67 yuan / ton, up 26.77%. Looking at the trend of nickel in the whole year, the increase of nickel was concentrated in July and August. Since the beginning of July, it has soared by 40.02% to the highest price of 141366.67 yuan / ton in the year on September 2. The highest price rose by 57.94% compared with the beginning of the year, reaching a five-year high since September 2014. In 2014, the ban on mining in Indonesia made nickel price increase nearly 50% in half a year.

As shown in the figure above, according to the current nickel comparison chart of the business agency, the current nickel trend in 2019 is basically the same. Except for the large current price difference between the end of October and the end of November, the futures price is very close to the spot price. Close to the end of the year, the main basis is positive, which is a negative for buying hedging.

2、 Market analysis

Nickel prices rose and fell in the first half of the year: from January to March, due to the rebound of financial data in January, monetary policy tends to be loose, Sino US trade negotiation results are good, and with the recovery of demand after the Spring Festival, according to the current price level, the steel mills are relatively profitable. After the festival, the steel mills may start a new round of resumption of production, with the increase of demand superimposed on the riots in Indonesia, nickel prices rise. From March to June, nickel price is in a downward trend. The decline in this stage is mainly due to the gradual introduction of new capacity of Xinhai nickel iron Co., Ltd. in Shandong Province. The market expects that there will be an excess supply of nickel iron. In addition, with the end of the rainy season in the Philippines, China’s nickel port inventory begins to accumulate, and nickel price drops slightly.

In the second half of the year, nickel prices rose and fell sharply: at the beginning of July, Indonesia’s earthquake and the restart of Indonesia’s export ban, as well as the impact of the restart of 17 mine sound reviews in the Philippines, coupled with the impact of the shutdown of a nickel mine factory under vale in the early part of the previous period, which caused nickel supply concerns, resulting in a continuous 40% increase in nickel prices. In the beginning of September, Indonesia’s ban on mining really hammered the news of nickel resources kujie in the Philippines, and nickel prices soared again The price of nickel soared nearly 60% to 140000 yuan in two months. After the nickel price reached the highest price on September 2, Indonesia announced a new round of tax relief, as well as the drag of the downstream stainless steel price and the demand for new energy nickel, with the dust from the previous ban on mining in Indonesia falling, which was good for consumption. The nickel price recovered nearly 30% in the fourth quarter. With the implementation date of Indonesia’s ban on mining approaching, nickel prices slightly recovered at the end of the year.

Indonesia’s nickel import accounts for more than 1 / 3 of the total

China expects to import about 70.6 million tons of nickel ore in 2019, including 26 million tons of Indonesia nickel ore, accounting for 36.8% of the total, accounting for more than one third of the total. If Indonesia’s nickel mine stops exporting nickel ore on January 1, 2020, it will affect more than one third of the supply of nickel ore.

Nickel import and export volume in 2009-2019

As shown in the figure above, from 2009 to 2013, the net import of nickel increased year by year, from 2013 to 2018, the net import of copper decreased gradually, and in 2019, it recovered slightly. According to statistics, from January to October 2019, the import volume of nickel is 17591800 tons, and the export volume is 31892 tons. In 2019, the annual import volume is estimated to be 211100 tons, and the annual export volume is 38300 tons.

Global and Chinese nickel production 2009-2019

As shown in the figure above, in 2018 and 2019, global nickel production rose rapidly, while China’s nickel production changed little. In 2017-19, China’s nickel production was relatively small, mainly relying on imports. From January to November 2019, the global nickel production is 1971700 tons, and from January to November 2019, China’s nickel production is 146800 tons.

Apparent consumption of nickel in 2009-2019

According to the figure above, the apparent consumption of nickel in China from January to October 2019 is 276100 tons, and the apparent consumption of nickel in 2019 is lower than that in 2018.

Stainless steel and lithium battery are two driving forces of nickel price demand

Public data shows that in 2019, China’s primary nickel consumption is expected to reach 1.307 million tons, an increase of 11.3% year-on-year. In terms of consumption structure, the consumption of stainless steel primary nickel accounts for 84.7%, electroplating 4.6%, battery 4.6%, and stainless steel still dominates nickel consumption. It is expected that China’s primary nickel consumption will reach 1.365 million tons in 2020, an increase of 4.5% year-on-year. From the perspective of global primary nickel consumption, stainless steel dominates nickel consumption and lithium battery nickel consumption grows fastest. It is estimated that by 2025, stainless steel accounts for 67% of nickel consumption and battery industry accounts for 17%; by 2030, stainless steel accounts for 63% and battery accounts for 22%.

Trend of downstream stainless steel

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the trend of downstream stainless steel in 2019 is basically the same as that of nickel in the whole year, but the magnitude of the earthquake is only about 10%. At the beginning of the year, the price of stainless steel was 13525 yuan / ton, with a slight drop of 1.17% to 13366.67 yuan / ton at the end of the year. The lowest price in the year was 13042 yuan / ton on June 19, and the highest price was 14628 yuan / ton on October 15, with an earthquake amplitude of 12.16%. In the first three quarters of this year, the domestic stainless steel output remained high, and the steel factory warehouse and social inventory climbed to a historical high. Therefore, the pressure of removing stainless steel warehouse at the end of this year continues to affect the market. After entering November, the production reduction of domestic mainstream steel plants has been implemented in succession. The price of stainless steel has fallen, which is bad for the demand of primary nickel, which also has a certain drag on the price of nickel. December is the off-season of traditional consumption of stainless steel. After routine maintenance of steel enterprises, stainless steel may enter into the situation of supply and demand.

New energy nickel demand hit

Since July, the growth rate of new energy vehicle production in China has changed from positive to negative. By 2020, subsidies in the field of new energy vehicles will be fully withdrawn, severely hitting the market’s optimistic expectation of nickel demand in the field of new energy. In October, the output of new energy vehicles in China was 85000, down 34.76% year on year. The negative impact of the decline of new energy subsidies is gradually obvious.

To sum up, the so-called “up Indonesia, down Indonesia” nickel price in 2019, China’s nickel production is very small and mainly depends on imports, while China’s imports of Indonesia’s nickel ore account for more than one third of the total imports of nickel ore in the whole year, Indonesia’s restart of the ban caused a storm to the nickel market, but after the dust settled, Indonesia returned to the fundamentals, the apparent consumption decreased, downstream stainless steel and new Energy demand is weak, and nickel price falls sharply. From January 1, 2020, Indonesia officially started to ban mining. In 2020, Philippine laterite nickel ore export volume may be around 45 million wet tons, up 9.3% from 41.18 million wet tons in 19 years, equivalent to about 345400 metal tons, which can supplement a little, but generally speaking, nickel is in short supply in 2020. In the first half of 2020, due to a large number of stainless steel manufacturers’ stock, the real shortage or in the second half of 2020, the nickel price is expected to be under pressure in the first half of 2020, and the price in the second half of 2020 will be stronger, with the price range of 100000-150000 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin:

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the market of epichlorohydrin has fallen first and then risen since the beginning of December. As of the 24th, the average price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 13900 yuan / ton, up 8.31% compared with December 1st. On December 24, the epichlorohydrin commodity index was 98.16, up 2.35 points from yesterday, down 26.59% from 133.71 (2019-10-29), and up 109.52% from 46.85, the lowest point on September 7, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: recent epichlorohydrin market fell first and then rose. On December 1, the average price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 12833.33 yuan / ton, and on December 3, the mainstream price of epichlorohydrin market was 12000-13500 yuan / ton, with the majority of profits offered by manufacturers. The downstream was lack of confidence in the future market, and the trading atmosphere was light. On December 9, the market price fell to 11833.33 yuan / ton. The manufacturers were not willing to ship at a low price. However, the downstream enterprises mainly consumed inventory raw materials and operated cautiously Purchase on demand, strong market wait-and-see mood. On December 16, the average price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 12100 yuan / ton, and the downstream just need to buy increased, and the focus of market negotiation increased. On December 17, the average price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 12166.67 yuan / ton. Due to the unstable production of some plants and equipment, the spot supply in the field was tight, and the manufacturers’ attitude of sticking to the price was obvious. On December 18, the market price of epichlorohydrin rose again, and the average price of enterprise quotation rose to 12 The price of epichlorohydrin in the market rose to 13566.67 yuan / ton on March 23. At present, the mainstream price in the domestic epichlorohydrin market is around 13700-14000 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the market price of propylene in Shandong Province fluctuated slightly on the 24th. At the beginning of December, influenced by the “Black Friday” international crude oil market, the price began to decline. The price has fallen by about 400 yuan / ton this month. After that, the price has remained stable and fluctuated in a narrow range. On the 24th, the prices of individual enterprises were slightly up and down. At present, the market turnover is about 6650-7100 yuan / ton, and the main stream price is about 6650-6700 yuan / ton. On March 23, the downstream epoxy resin was affected by the rise of double raw materials, the pressure of production cost increased, and the market price rose.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the epichlorohydrin analyst of the business association, the impact of the recent upstream propylene price change on epichlorohydrin is limited, and the downstream consumption of raw materials is mainly inventory, just need to purchase. However, under the tight market situation, it is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will be high in the short term, so it is still possible to push forward, and the focus still needs to pay attention to the downstream demand information guidance.

1、 Price trend

The domestic market price of dimethyl ether (Henan) rose continuously this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic dimethyl ether (Henan) market was 2983.33 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 3066.67 yuan / ton, up 2.79% in the week, 12.38% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the trading atmosphere of methyl ether (Henan) market on Tuesday is good. As of December 20, devices such as Hebei Yutai, Henan lankaohuitong and Shanxi Lanhua technology venture Co., Ltd. had been shut down for maintenance; there was no quotation for the failure of the new dimethyl ether device in Henan Yima. Shengxin, Qinyang, Henan Province, will not make an offer. The factory price of dimethyl ether of Henan xinlianxin Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd. is 3150 yuan / ton, that of Hebei Jichun Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3380 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Dezhou shengdeyuan company is 3220 yuan / ton, and that of Shandong Yuhuang is 3230 yuan / ton.

On Tuesday, the operating rate of methyl ether was lower than that of last week. At present, the operating rate is at a relatively low level, and the overall market supply is reduced. This week, the trend of cost methanol was weak, but the civil use of liquefied gas rose sharply, which played a positive role in supporting the market. At present, the price difference between gas and ether gradually opened, rising to about 1300 yuan / ton, with a good mentality in the downstream and a rising enthusiasm for entering the market. However, there is no obvious change in the market terminal demand, which has a certain impact on the upside.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 50th week of 2019 (12.16-12.20), there are 7 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 1 kind of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are liquefied gas (5.46%), dimethyl ether (2.79%) and petroleum coke (2.27%). There are 6 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products falling are MTBE (- 2.04%), LNG (- 1.50%) and methanol (- 1.42%). This week’s average was 0.5%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the DME analysts of the business association, there is no obvious improvement in the terminal demand of DME at present, and the trend of cost methanol is weak. In addition, the downstream new round of replenishment is over, and the market has been out of the market for a wait-and-see one after another, with limited market action, it is expected that there may be a slight reduction in the future market in the short term.

1、 Price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China this week is 1600 yuan / ton, and the price is stable temporarily.

2、 Market analysis

Products: the price of concentrated nitric acid is stable temporarily, that of Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu chemical industry is 1500 yuan / ton, the price is stable; that of Anhui Jinhe is 1500 yuan / ton, the price is stable; that of Shandong helitai concentrated nitric acid is 1800 yuan / ton, the price is stable temporarily. Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1650 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton compared with the last time; Huainan Audley chemical concentrated nitric acid quoted 1600 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan / ton compared with last week; local supply is tight, and some enterprises have increased nitric acid quoted price. Most enterprises wait and see, and offer firm.

Industrial chain: liquid ammonia, the raw material in the upper reaches of nitric acid, the domestic market of liquid ammonia tends to be stable, with a slight decline in some areas. Downstream aniline, according to the bulk list data of business agencies, the price of aniline in Shandong and Nanjing fell this week. On Friday, the market price of aniline in Shandong Province was 6450 yuan / ton, 3.01% lower than that of 6650 yuan / ton on Friday, and that in Nanjing was 6750 yuan / ton, 4.93% lower than that of 7100 yuan / ton on Friday.

3、 Future forecast

To sum up, the nitric acid analysts of the business association predict that the nitric acid market may continue to fluctuate and adjust.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association, as of December 19, the average price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4666.67 yuan / ton, and the price range of manufacturers was 4500-5000 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Products: as of December 19, the domestic DMF market is basically stable, the manufacturer’s quotation is stable, the atmosphere of trade and negotiation is flat, the upstream and downstream remain stagnant, the terminal demand is general, Anyang Jiutian 4800 yuan / ton, Yangzi BASF dmf5200 yuan / ton, Zhejiang Jiangshan chemical dmf5300 yuan / ton, Yanchang Xinghua dmf4700 yuan / ton, Shandong Jinmei daily and monthly dmf4600 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the upstream raw materials fell slightly, but the cost is still supported, the mentality of the industry is stable, the downstream power is low, the contract customers are mainly close to the end of the year, and the enthusiasm of raw materials procurement is general.

Industry: on December 18, the chemical industry index was 734, the same as yesterday, down 27.76% from 1016 (2012-03-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 22.33% from 600, the lowest point on January 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

4、 Future forecast

DMF analysts believe that in the short term, DMF is mainly weak and stable, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see,