In recent years, China’s import volume of crude oil by sea has grown rapidly, with a compound growth rate of 10% in 2013-2018. During this period, with the promotion of diversified development of China’s import of crude oil, OPEC countries’ share in China’s import volume of crude oil by sea has declined. In any case, although OPEC’s crude oil exports have been under pressure in recent years, its share of China’s crude oil imports is stabilizing.

OPEC: important

China is an important driving force of global crude oil shipping trade. China’s import volume of crude oil shipping increased from 254 million tons (5.1 million barrels / day) in 2013 to 412 million tons (8.3 million barrels / day) in 2018, accounting for 20% of global crude oil shipping trade. The suppliers of China’s crude oil imports are widely distributed, but 75% of China’s crude oil imports in 2013 came from OPEC countries, which is higher than the proportion of OPEC in the global crude oil marine exports in the same year (64%).

Since 2013, China’s crude oil imports from OPEC and non OPEC countries have increased year by year (see chart this month). During 2013-2018, China’s total import of OPEC crude oil increased by 33%, while the export volume of OPEC countries increased by only 3% over the same period. Although the implementation of production reduction agreements since 2017 has limited the growth of OPEC crude oil exports, and supply of some countries has been interrupted due to the impact of sanctions, China’s crude oil imports from OPEC have continued to increase in recent years. This is mainly supported by the “oil for loan” agreement between China and Angola and the further cooperation between China and Iraq and the United Arab Emirates. In addition, more OPEC crude oil is shipped to China due to the decline of US crude oil imports.

Non OPEC: a rising star

However, since the annual compound growth rate of China’s crude oil imports from non OPEC countries reached 20% in 2013-2018 (compared with 6% in OPEC countries), the share of China’s crude oil imports from OPEC fell sharply in 2013-2017, only 62% in 2018, close to the global share of OPEC crude oil exports. Among the major non OPEC suppliers, Russia’s crude oil exports to China have increased significantly in recent years. Due to the growing demand for local refineries in China and the growing preference for Russian crude oil, Russia’s share of China’s crude oil import by sea increased from 2% in 2013 to 8% in 2018. Meanwhile, China imported 12% of its crude oil from Brazil and the UK in 2018 (only 2% in 2013). In 2017 and the first half of 2018, China’s imports of crude oil from the United States also increased (a total of 12 million tons of US crude oil were imported in 2018).

Stable?

However, the contraction of OPEC’s share of China’s crude oil imports seems to have slowed down in the near future, from 64% in 2017 to 62% in 2018, and relatively stable at 61% in January October 2019. This year, for the first time in the past six years, China’s imports of crude oil from OPEC countries exceeded those from non OPEC countries (despite a decline in imports from Iran and Venezuela). This is mainly due to the fact that after Saudi Aramco signed supply contracts with some private refineries in 2018, the crude oil imported from Saudi Arabia by China this year increased 62% to 64 million tons year on year. At the same time, the “trade war” between China and the United States has also led to the shift of China’s crude oil imports to some OPEC countries.

In short, in recent years, China’s crude oil import shows a diversified development trend, but OPEC’s share in China’s crude oil import is becoming stable. China is an important export destination of OPEC, but the preliminary agreement reached in the “trade war” between China and the United States recently and OPEC may further reduce production next year. The proportion of OPEC in China next year deserves close attention.

1、 Acrylic price trend:

The average price of acrylic acid as of January 8 was 8133.33 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of January 7, up 2.52% year-on-year in a three-month cycle, according to the data in the business club’s large list. On August 8, the main quotation of acrylic acid in China was 7300-9300 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis:

Product: acrylic acid market was stable on August 8. Acrylic acid market spot supply is limited, downstream just need to purchase, inquiry enthusiasm has improved, the overall market is stable. At present, the price of acrylic acid in Shandong Yukang Chemical Co., Ltd. is temporarily stable, with 7600 yuan / ton of common acid and 8100 yuan / ton of refined acid. The specific transaction price is discussed on a case by case basis. The price of acrylic acid in Wanhua chemical and Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is stable, mainly for contracts and stable customers. At present, the price of acrylic acid is 7800 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the market of propylene in Shandong continued to rise on August 8. Influenced by international crude oil, domestic propylene price rebounded from the bottom at the end of December, rising continuously. On January 5 and 6, it was generally stable, and on January 7, it began to rise again. Today, the enterprise price is still slightly increased by about 50 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction is about 6950-7300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6950 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast:

Analysts of acrylic acid business club believe that in the near future, the price of raw propylene has been rising continuously, and the cost support has been strengthened. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be stable and positive in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the upstream and downstream and mainstream market conditions.

On January 6, the rare earth index was 338, down 1 point from yesterday, 66.20% from the highest point in the cycle, 1000 (2011-12-06), and 24.72% higher than the lowest point, 271, on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium is 367000 yuan / ton, 2125000 yuan / ton and 650000 yuan / ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide, praseodymium oxide, neodymium oxide and neodymium oxide are 280000 yuan / ton, 1715000 yuan / ton, 332500 yuan / ton and 291000 yuan / ton respectively. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 359000 yuan / ton, and the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1685000 yuan / ton.

The price trend of heavy and rare earth in the rare earth market has declined. The domestic supply policy of heavy and rare earth market, the export of heavy and rare earth are normal. Myanmar unilaterally closed the customs clearance port, the domestic supply has decreased, and the domestic price trend of heavy and rare earth has declined slightly. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet has not changed much in the near future, the market trend of PR nd series products is general, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth is general in the near future, and the market price is slightly lower. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controls the sales, but the downstream demand has not changed much in the near future, and the price trend of most rare earths is mainly stable.

Recently, Geng Shuang, spokesman of the Ministry of foreign affairs, said that China is the world’s largest country in rare earth reserves and production, and plays an important role in the global rare earth industry chain. China has been adhering to the principle of openness, coordination and sharing, promoting the development of domestic rare earth industry, and is willing to meet the legitimate needs of the development of all countries in the world with rare earth resources and products, so as to promote China’s economy and the world Economic development plays an active role. China’s rare earth production accounts for 73% of the world’s total, ranking first in the world and playing an important role in the game between big countries. Rare earth PR nd and Dy TB are mainly used in NdFeB magnetic steel. Recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources jointly issued a notice to release the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining and smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2019. The Ministry of industry and information technology of China announced that the total amount of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2019 was 132000 tons and 127000 tons respectively, while the quota of rare earth mining in 2018 was 120000 tons, an increase of 12000 tons, and the data in 2019 It’s the highest year since 2014. In addition, the Ministry of industry and information technology, together with relevant departments, drafted the development plan of new energy vehicle industry (2021-2035). After 15 years of continuous efforts, China’s core technology of new energy vehicles will reach the international leading level. By 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales will reach about 25%. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, and China’s domestic demand is expected to further improve The price of heavy rare earth in the domestic rare earth market remained high.

Rare earth analysts of business news agency predict that the intensity of domestic environmental protection inspection will not be reduced in the near future. In addition, the domestic export market of rare earth industry has been supported, and the supply and demand pattern is improving in a better way. It is expected that the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market will remain high, while the price of light rare earth will fluctuate mainly.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, today’s domestic copper price slightly declined and quoted 48751.67 yuan / ton, down 0.43% from the previous day, up 4.12% year on year. Shanghai copper’s main market hit a high of 49010 yuan at the beginning of the day and then came back to 48760 yuan at the end of the day, down 0.29%.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, copper price fluctuated in a narrow range. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States fell last week, and the strong performance of the employment market stopped the decline of the U.S. dollar. At the same time, the downward pressure of the global economy is large, and the demand outlook of the copper market is still worried. In addition, the recent recovery of copper inventory in Shanghai has put pressure on the copper price. However, the easing of international trade tensions and the reduction of the Central Bank of China’s reserve have also resulted in the tight supply of upstream copper mines, and the copper processing fee TC At a low level, the copper price formed part of the support.

3、 Future prospects

Based on the above situation, copper analysts of the non ferrous branch of the business agency believe that the domestic production reduction has not yet been implemented, and the copper in the period is in a downward trend under the background of the lack of good news. However, there is a certain support for copper market fundamentals, copper prices continue to decline or limited space to maintain a narrow range of volatile trend.

1、 Price trend

According to a large number of data on the list of business agencies, this week coincides with new year’s day, before and after the festival, aniline factories cut prices to stimulate shipments. This Friday, the market price of aniline in Shandong Province was 6300 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton, down 3.08% compared with 6500 yuan / ton last Friday; the market price of aniline in Nanjing region was 6700 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton, down 1.47% compared with 6800 yuan / ton last Friday

2、 Analysis and comment

Raw materials: the listing price of pure benzene on Friday is 5500-5950 yuan / ton, down 1.02% from last Friday. This week’s pure benzene port inventory picked up from last week. There is pressure on the delivery of Shandong local refining Co., Ltd. and the price has been lowered successively. With the increase of market arrivals, the expectation of merchants began to weaken and the market mentality was short. However, it is heard that Zhejiang Petrochemical has produced pure benzene, but it has not been sold to the outside world. It is reserved for trial run of styrene, which to some extent supports the price of pure benzene.

Product: the bidding price of raw materials fell, and the support of cost to aniline price weakened. In addition, around New Year’s day, aniline Market trading is light, aniline factory in order to stimulate shipments, reduce prices.

3、 Future expectation

Raw materials: the port inventory rose for two consecutive weeks, and the downstream profit level continued to be worrying, so the market mentality was weak. Near the end of the year, it is necessary to pay attention to the transportation problems in the later period and the impact of low price of hydrogenated benzene on pure benzene. Pure benzene is expected to continue to weaken slightly next week.

Aniline fell twice this week and is expected to fall mainly in consumption in the short term, with prices slightly volatile. Pay attention to the trend of pure benzene in the later stage.