1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of steam coal fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average port price of thermal coal was maintained at 754 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the average port price of thermal coal was maintained at 747.5 yuan / ton, down 0.86%, up 45.15% year on year. On April 8, the steam coal commodity index was 90.51, down 0.27 points from yesterday, down 27.59% from the cycle’s highest point of 125.00 points (2021-01-19), and up 102.48% from the lowest point of 44.70 points on January 20, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of origin, the high level of coal at the head of the steam coal pit has decreased. Because of the hot sales in the mining area in the early stage, now the acceptance of the downstream is general, and the coal price has begun to callback slightly. And Yulin coal mine began to resume production, the overall supply is more sufficient than the previous period. In addition, in April, Mengxi began to release xinyuedu coal pipe ticket, and the overall supply may be improved.

In terms of downstream power plants: with the rise of temperature, civil power has basically ended, and the daily coal consumption of the port has dropped in recent days. As of April 6, the six major coastal power plants had a total inventory of 14.505 million tons, daily consumption of 653000 tons, and available days of 22.2 days. And the downstream began to resist the high price of coal, the desire to chase high is not strong. In addition, industrial power consumption has been on the right track, and the follow-up power consumption increment is not large.

Macro: according to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, the national coal prices rose slightly last week (March 29 to April 4), among which the prices of steam coal, coking coal and No.2 anthracite lump coal were 613 yuan, 776 yuan and 940 yuan per ton, up 1%, 0.5% and 0.3% respectively.

Business analysts believe that: at this stage, the daily consumption of port is on the decline, industrial power consumption has entered normal, power demand is difficult to increase, and civil power is basically over. Moreover, in terms of producing area, the supply of steam coal is sufficient. On the whole, the price of steam coal may maintain a weak market, and the specific situation depends on the downstream market demand.

On April 8, 2021, in the price rise and fall list of fluorine chemical industry, there were 0 kinds of commodities that rose, 0 kinds of commodities that fell, and 7 kinds of commodities that rose or fell to 0. Stable products include fluorite, hydrofluoric acid, aluminum fluoride, chloroform, cryolite, R22, R134a.

On April 8, the market price trend of fluorine chemical raw materials was temporarily stable. The price of raw material fluorite was 2738.89 yuan / ton, and the price trend of fluorite remained stable. Recently, some domestic fluorite plants were generally started, and some in site mines and flotation plants were shut down. The fluorite supply in the site was normal. However, the downstream market was mainly stable in the near future, and the decline of fluorite price was limited. As of August 8, the price of fluorite in Jiangxi was 2700-2900 yuan / ton, and that in Inner Mongolia was 2500-2700 yuan / ton. It is expected that the price of fluorite will remain high and stable in the future.

In the near future, the price trend of the downstream refrigerant industry is temporarily stable, and the operating rate remains low. The demand for hydrofluoric acid is general. However, due to the normal supply on the site, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is stable. As of August 8, the quotation of hydrofluoric acid Market is 10622.22 yuan / ton. The recent price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is mainly stable, and the operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. The enterprises reflect that the market price of hydrofluoric acid is stable Fluoric acid spot supply is normal. Recently, the market of goods on the floor is general. The ex factory price of some enterprises is stable. Up to now, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation is 10000-11000 yuan / ton. However, people on the floor reflect that it is difficult for the hydrofluoric acid market to rise sharply in the near future. Business analyst Chen Ling thinks that the market of hydrofluoric acid may be temporarily stable.

The price trend of aluminum fluoride products is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, and the trading market is general. The quotation of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Zerun energy and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9000 yuan / ton. The overall market supply of aluminum fluoride is sufficient, and the overall price trend of aluminum fluoride market is stable.

In recent years, the price trend of trichloromethane in Shandong Province is temporarily stable, the overall demand of downstream market has little change, and the demand for trichloromethane is general. With the demand procurement of downstream market, the price trend of trichloromethane market is stable. At present, trichloromethane production enterprises in Shandong Province have a high starting point, sufficient spot supply in the market, general shipment and normal sales. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of chloroform is about 3650-3750 yuan / ton.

In recent years, the price trend of domestic cryolite is temporarily stable, the operation of the plant is stable, and the supply is normal. The domestic negotiation price is about 6500-7000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiation. In general, the recent market of fluorine chemical industry is general, and it is expected that the trend of fluorine chemical industry will remain volatile in the later period.

In the near future, the price trend of downstream refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable, the price of raw material chloroform remains high, and the cost support is general. In the near future, the downstream gradually starts to stock up, the demand side has risen, and the market center slightly rises. As the price trend of hydrofluoric acid is stable, the price of some affected refrigerants rises. Refrigerant R134a price trend has an upward trend, the market is strong operation. In the near future, the start-up in the downstream remained low, but the raw material support was strong, and the refrigerant market was temporarily stable.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, after nearly a month’s decline, the acetic anhydride market rose again, and the price of acetic anhydride rose again on April 7. On April 7, the price of acetic anhydride was 9533.33 yuan / ton, up 1.96% from 9350.00 yuan / ton on April 1. Acetic anhydride prices take off again, raw material prices are the main driving factors.

Acetic acid price trend

It can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid that the price of acetic acid in April changed from the volatile downward trend in March, and the price of acetic acid rose sharply. Shunda acetic acid plant start-up schedule is difficult to determine, Nanjing BP acetic acid plant unexpected shutdown, acetic acid supply is expected to reduce, future acetic acid prices are expected to rise. The price of acetic acid rises, the cost of acetic anhydride rises, and the driving force of acetic anhydride increases.

Market summary and future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, acetic anhydride data analyst of business society, believes that affected by the decline of acetic acid enterprises, the price of acetic acid stops falling and rebounds, the price of acetic acid rises again, the cost of acetic anhydride rises, the price of acetic anhydride is facing the pressure of soaring again, and the market of acetic anhydride takes off again. In the future, the cost of acetic anhydride remains high, and the demand for acetic anhydride is relatively stable. With the rising cost of acetic anhydride, the price of acetic anhydride is bound to rise again. Acetic anhydride market rose in the future.

Since April 2020, the chemical industry market has been full of momentum and rising. Especially in 2021, the chemical industry market will soar to a ten-year “high” in March. According to the monitoring of the business community, the chemical industry index on March 10, 2021 was 1049 points, a record high in the cycle, up 75.42% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

In terms of price, according to the monitoring data of business news agency, in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the first quarter of 2021, there were 83 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, among which 71 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 77.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities increased were 1,4-butanediol (139.84%), bisphenol A (100.38%) and lithium carbonate (73.60%).

There were only 7 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 4 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products with a decrease were hydrochloric acid (- 31.30%), hydrogen peroxide (- 27.51%) and polyaluminum chloride (- 6.63%). The average rise and fall in the first quarter was 20.48%.

The extremely cold weather restricted the production of crude oil in the United States. The price of crude oil soared to a new high in the past 14 months, boosting the chemical market. At the same time, under the background of the epidemic, the overseas epidemic repeatedly led to the continuous shutdown and supply interruption of chemical plants, and the decrease of global supply expectation was continuously spread, which led to the increase of overseas order demand of domestic factories. In addition, factors such as over issuance of money, asset inflation and loose policy have all provided sufficient energy for the market’s highest point savings.

1,4-butanediol (139.84%)

In the first quarter, the BDO market showed a trend of callback after a sharp rise. Supported by various favorable factors, such as supply reduction, transportation restriction, downstream bullish position compensation, the booming black horse PBAT market in the industry and the sharp increase in demand, the domestic BDO rise can be described as “out of control”. According to the sample data monitored by the business association, as of March 1, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 31750 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 133.46% and a year-on-year increase of 228%. BDO rose in a straight line with the market quotation, and the market sentiment continued to rise in a short time. In February, the domestic BDO market was “leading the way”, but in March, the domestic BDO market was “turning upside down”, and the ladder declined, but the range was not large.

On March 31, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 30700 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 3.31% and a year-on-year increase of 225.21%. In March, the bearish sentiment of domestic BDO market continued to intensify, and the price fell from a high level. However, supported by the prominent contradiction between supply and demand, the decline was limited.

Bisphenol A (100.38%)

Since 2021, the domestic market of bisphenol A has soared by 116%. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the average market offer was 12725 yuan / ton on January 4, and the market offer was 27500 yuan / ton as of April 2, with an increase of 116.11%. At present, the inventory of bisphenol A in the market is low, so it is difficult to find one product. Under the background of bull market, the upsurge of upstream and downstream of the industrial chain helped the market of bisphenol a go up; under the tight supply of goods, the terminal demand continued to improve, especially under the stimulation of terminal wind power industry demand, with sufficient orders and queuing up for delivery, the demand of coatings, new materials and other industries increased in the later stage, and the demand for raw materials was stable. Near the end of the quarter, the supply of goods is limited and there is no intention to make profits. Under the sustained high price, the market transaction is weak, but the short-term shortage of goods is still the main tone of the market, and the short-term market will still run at a high level. In the later stage, as the industry gradually callback, the terminal transfer of high cost is weak, bisphenol A will gradually return to the rational range.

Lithium carbonate (73.60%)

As shown in the figure above, the lithium carbonate market showed a phased unilateral upward trend in the first quarter, with an overall increase of 73.6% in the first quarter and a year-on-year increase of 99.08%. Since the beginning of December last year, the supply of lithium carbonate has been in short supply. Many manufacturers are basically out of stock. The market is tight and the price is rising. The following first quarter was the spring holiday. In view of a small amount of replenishment from downstream orders, the factory pushed the market upward again. However, in view of the shortage of replenishment due to cost pressure, the terminal demand continued to rise and the contradiction between supply and demand continued to intensify after the festival in the context of the bull market of bulk chemical industry. The rise of lithium carbonate in the first quarter was astonishing. In the near future, the market demand is stable, the downstream enterprises are basically in the state of just purchasing, and the price rising trend is slightly weak. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate may continue to be high in the short term.

The opening of combustion and explosion chemical market in 2021

The chemical market rose well in the first quarter. Although it showed a downward trend at the end of the quarter, analysts from business news agency believed that the short-term correction was mainly due to the cost pressure transmitted by the high price industrial chain, but overseas demand will eventually return to the road of China’s recovery. In the post epidemic era, domestic and foreign demand will pull the domestic market, and the chemical market in the second quarter may still be worth looking forward to. The marginal improvement of demand in 2021 mainly comes from overseas, and various monetary and policy stimulus will drive the chemical sub industry to further boom. The epidemic situation may reshape the global chemical supply pattern, and the global market share of China’s chemical industry will accelerate to increase. China’s chemical industry leader will meet the historic development opportunity.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory tax price of domestic light potassium carbonate was 6575.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, and the average ex factory tax price of domestic light potassium carbonate was 6687.75 yuan / ton at the end of this week, up 0.75%. The current price is up 0.94% month on month, and the current price is up 5.73% compared with last year.

Recently, the domestic potash market continues to rise, and the potash market has been in short supply. Most of them are concentrated in the hands of large traders. They are reluctant to sell. The downstream market purchases on demand. The trading atmosphere of potash market is acceptable, and the market is rising. According to the statistics of the business society, the mainstream ex factory quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 6550-6900 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to the different procurement situation.

Recently, the quotation of potassium chloride mainstream manufacturers is at a high level: on April 2, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory quotation is about 2210 yuan / ton, the quotation is temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation. On April 2, Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted about 2550 yuan / ton for potassium chloride distribution, which was temporarily stable. The actual transaction price was mainly through negotiation. Recently, the potassium chloride market rose at a high level, and the import potassium price of the port also continued to rise. The cost support was strong, which supported the rise of potassium carbonate market.

Potash analysts from business news agency believe that the recent start-up of potash fertilizer plant is not high, and the market price is high and firm. It is expected that the price of potash carbonate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the main manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of the business society. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).