Since April 2020, the chemical industry market has been full of momentum and rising. Especially in 2021, the chemical industry market will soar to a ten-year “high” in March. According to the monitoring of the business community, the chemical industry index on March 10, 2021 was 1049 points, a record high in the cycle, up 75.42% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).
In terms of price, according to the monitoring data of business news agency, in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the first quarter of 2021, there were 83 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, among which 71 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 77.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities increased were 1,4-butanediol (139.84%), bisphenol A (100.38%) and lithium carbonate (73.60%).
There were only 7 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 4 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products with a decrease were hydrochloric acid (- 31.30%), hydrogen peroxide (- 27.51%) and polyaluminum chloride (- 6.63%). The average rise and fall in the first quarter was 20.48%.
The extremely cold weather restricted the production of crude oil in the United States. The price of crude oil soared to a new high in the past 14 months, boosting the chemical market. At the same time, under the background of the epidemic, the overseas epidemic repeatedly led to the continuous shutdown and supply interruption of chemical plants, and the decrease of global supply expectation was continuously spread, which led to the increase of overseas order demand of domestic factories. In addition, factors such as over issuance of money, asset inflation and loose policy have all provided sufficient energy for the market’s highest point savings.
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1,4-butanediol (139.84%)
In the first quarter, the BDO market showed a trend of callback after a sharp rise. Supported by various favorable factors, such as supply reduction, transportation restriction, downstream bullish position compensation, the booming black horse PBAT market in the industry and the sharp increase in demand, the domestic BDO rise can be described as “out of control”. According to the sample data monitored by the business association, as of March 1, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 31750 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 133.46% and a year-on-year increase of 228%. BDO rose in a straight line with the market quotation, and the market sentiment continued to rise in a short time. In February, the domestic BDO market was “leading the way”, but in March, the domestic BDO market was “turning upside down”, and the ladder declined, but the range was not large.
On March 31, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 30700 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 3.31% and a year-on-year increase of 225.21%. In March, the bearish sentiment of domestic BDO market continued to intensify, and the price fell from a high level. However, supported by the prominent contradiction between supply and demand, the decline was limited.
Bisphenol A (100.38%)
Since 2021, the domestic market of bisphenol A has soared by 116%. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the average market offer was 12725 yuan / ton on January 4, and the market offer was 27500 yuan / ton as of April 2, with an increase of 116.11%. At present, the inventory of bisphenol A in the market is low, so it is difficult to find one product. Under the background of bull market, the upsurge of upstream and downstream of the industrial chain helped the market of bisphenol a go up; under the tight supply of goods, the terminal demand continued to improve, especially under the stimulation of terminal wind power industry demand, with sufficient orders and queuing up for delivery, the demand of coatings, new materials and other industries increased in the later stage, and the demand for raw materials was stable. Near the end of the quarter, the supply of goods is limited and there is no intention to make profits. Under the sustained high price, the market transaction is weak, but the short-term shortage of goods is still the main tone of the market, and the short-term market will still run at a high level. In the later stage, as the industry gradually callback, the terminal transfer of high cost is weak, bisphenol A will gradually return to the rational range.
Lithium carbonate (73.60%)
As shown in the figure above, the lithium carbonate market showed a phased unilateral upward trend in the first quarter, with an overall increase of 73.6% in the first quarter and a year-on-year increase of 99.08%. Since the beginning of December last year, the supply of lithium carbonate has been in short supply. Many manufacturers are basically out of stock. The market is tight and the price is rising. The following first quarter was the spring holiday. In view of a small amount of replenishment from downstream orders, the factory pushed the market upward again. However, in view of the shortage of replenishment due to cost pressure, the terminal demand continued to rise and the contradiction between supply and demand continued to intensify after the festival in the context of the bull market of bulk chemical industry. The rise of lithium carbonate in the first quarter was astonishing. In the near future, the market demand is stable, the downstream enterprises are basically in the state of just purchasing, and the price rising trend is slightly weak. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate may continue to be high in the short term.
The opening of combustion and explosion chemical market in 2021
The chemical market rose well in the first quarter. Although it showed a downward trend at the end of the quarter, analysts from business news agency believed that the short-term correction was mainly due to the cost pressure transmitted by the high price industrial chain, but overseas demand will eventually return to the road of China’s recovery. In the post epidemic era, domestic and foreign demand will pull the domestic market, and the chemical market in the second quarter may still be worth looking forward to. The marginal improvement of demand in 2021 mainly comes from overseas, and various monetary and policy stimulus will drive the chemical sub industry to further boom. The epidemic situation may reshape the global chemical supply pattern, and the global market share of China’s chemical industry will accelerate to increase. China’s chemical industry leader will meet the historic development opportunity.
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