According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PP market had a “good start” in late March, with prices rising strongly. As of March 23, the benchmark price for PP wire drawing in Shengyi Society was reported at 9360 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 7.05% compared to the previous trading day, with a year-on-year increase of up to 40.96%. The market shows a typical cost driven upward trend.
price trend
Cost side: The raw material market is strengthening across the board, with strong support
After the Middle East crude oil was affected by transportation disruptions and the cancellation of long-term contracts in early March, the situation has not eased recently, and some countries have significantly reduced their crude oil production due to force majeure. Combined with the firm stance of OPEC+production cuts, international oil prices have risen at a high level recently. The uncertainty and medium-term nature of the current US Iran situation continue to raise concerns among industry players, leading to a strong trend in PP’s remote cost value. In terms of propylene, it has followed the upstream trend, coupled with the concentrated landing of enterprise equipment maintenance, some equipment has reduced load operation, and the effective supply in the market has significantly decreased, highlighting the tight pattern of spot resources. At the same time, the arrival of propane at ports has decreased synchronously, and domestic and foreign commodity prices remain high, with a high focus on spot prices. Overall, the prices of PP raw materials are positive, providing strong support for PP costs.
Supply side: Maintenance peak approaching, supply pressure easing
Entering late March, the maintenance plans of domestic PP enterprises are relatively concentrated, and the overall operating rate is not high. As of the time of writing, the overall load level of the domestic industry has dropped to around 70%. In the early stage, there were multiple sets of equipment maintenance in enterprises such as Zhejiang Petrochemical and Maoming Petrochemical. Last week, some companies also implemented maintenance plans one after another. The total production capacity of industry maintenance is at a historical high, with an average weekly output of less than 730000 tons. The inventory level has dropped to 860000 tons, and the arrival of imported materials at ports has also significantly decreased. Overall, the supply side’s support for spot prices is still acceptable.
Demand side: High prices suppress chasing after gains, cautious follow-up on transactions
Affected by high spot prices, the overall trading atmosphere in the downstream market of the industry has been cautious since the beginning of the month. In the early stage, some refineries oversold contracts and chase orders were basically delivered, but the current transaction pace has slowed down and warehouse building operations have decreased. Buyers often use and take as you go, with scattered small orders being the main focus. Some terminal small and micro enterprises have reduced production and stopped production due to high cost pressures, while large and medium-sized enterprises have stabilized their inventory. The overall demand side is in a wait-and-see situation, with performance falling short of market expectations and average support for PP.
Future forecast
The current PP market is in a game pattern of “strong cost, strong supply contraction, and weak demand”. The supply side has tightened due to high maintenance levels, but with a large production capacity base, inventory can still ensure basic market supply.
Overall, PP analysts from Shengyi Society believe that in the short term, the core driving force of the PP market will still be cost logic, and spot prices may remain in a high range of fluctuations. It is recommended to closely monitor the fluctuations in the crude oil market and the follow-up of downstream demand, and be alert to the further suppression of demand by high prices.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 8625 yuan/ton on March 16th and 8641 yuan/ton on March 20th, an increase of 0.19%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 10666 yuan/ton on March 16th and 10750 yuan/ton on March 20th, an increase of 0.78%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on March 16th was 8937 yuan/ton, and on March 20th it was 9045 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.20%.
Cost side: The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the severe fluctuations in international crude oil have provided strong support on the cost side.
Supply side: Domestic supply: In mid March, there was an increase in equipment maintenance, and the supply was temporarily tight. Import supply: The Middle East has a high proportion of goods, but due to shipping and geopolitical disturbances, port arrivals have been delayed and offers have decreased. It is expected that imports will significantly decrease in March and April, and external supply will tighten. Petrochemical inventory has decreased month on month, but social inventory remains high and destocking is slow.
On the demand side, the demand for spring plowing plastic film and packaging has been released, and the downstream operating rate has increased month on month, but the magnitude is limited. Downstream profits are severely squeezed, and procurement enthusiasm is not high, unable to support sustained price increases, resulting in a rapid decline after price surges.

Geopolitical conflicts still have uncertainty, crude oil prices remain high, cost support is still present, and polyethylene prices are likely to maintain a high volatility trend, making it difficult to see a significant decline; However, weak terminal demand cannot support sustained price increases, and there is still downward pressure even after a surge.

1、 Price trend
This week, the acrylic acid market showed a pulse like fluctuation trend of first rising, then falling, and then stabilizing, with prices playing around the 12750 yuan/ton range. According to data from Shengyi Society, the benchmark price of high-quality acrylic acid in East China was 12750 yuan/ton on March 11th, and rapidly rose to a stage high of 13076 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week to March 12th, with a growth rate of 2.56%; On March 15th, the price quickly fell back to 12750 yuan/ton, giving up all the stage gains; From March 16th to 18th, prices stabilized and remained unchanged from the beginning of last week, maintaining an overall trend of range consolidation.
2、 Market situation
Cost side:
The disturbance of the energy supply chain caused by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East remains a core factor on the cost side, with high fluctuations in international crude oil and propane prices driving the rigid support of propylene raw material costs. But as market sentiment gradually cools down, the price of propylene has slightly fallen from its peak, and the driving force of the raw material side to push up acrylic acid has weakened. Cost support has shifted from “strong driving” to “bottom line support”, providing space for price decline.
Supply and demand side:
1. Supply side: The overall operating rate of the industry remains stable, with sufficient spot supply and no obvious supply gap. The tight spot circulation caused by panic hoarding in the early stage has gradually eased, and the pace of enterprise shipments has returned to stability.
2. Demand side: Downstream industries such as coatings, adhesives, and water reducers mainly rely on rigid procurement, with limited acceptance of high prices above 13000 yuan/ton. After concentrated stockpiling in the early stage, demand enters a digestion period, lacking incremental demand support, and the supply and demand sides are in a stalemate, restricting the upward space of prices.
Emotional side:
At the beginning of this week, the market was affected by geopolitical conflicts and cost transmission, and speculative sentiment and hoarding behavior drove prices higher. However, with the marginal easing of the situation and the correction of raw material prices, market panic subsided, transactions returned to rationality, and actual order negotiations focused more on fundamental matching, resulting in a narrower range of price fluctuations.
3、 Future prospects
In the short term, the supply-demand game will continue to dominate the operation of the acrylic acid market, and the price is likely to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations and consolidation pattern, with a core fluctuation range around 12500-13000 yuan/ton. Focus on three core variables:
1. Upstream raw material propylene prices fluctuate. If the raw material continues to weaken, it will further weaken the cost support of acrylic acid or trigger a slight price drop;
2. Changes in downstream industry operating rates and procurement pace, if the demand for essential goods continues to weaken, may exacerbate the risk of downward price fluctuations;
3. The dynamic geopolitical situation in the Middle East may reactivate market sentiment and drive cost and price fluctuations if there are new changes in the situation.
In the medium to long term, the industry needs to pay attention to the pace of new production capacity deployment and adjustment of device operating rates in the second quarter. If supply pressure gradually releases, the supply-demand pattern may usher in a new balance, and price trends will be more in line with fundamental changes.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 1 to 17, 2026, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market showed a steady upward and moderate recovery trend, with prices gradually rising from 168000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the cycle to 170000 yuan/ton at the end of the cycle, with a cumulative increase of 1.19%. The market trend in this cycle has relied on rigid support from the supply side to achieve a slight increase in prices, and has not seen a significant rise due to the constraints of flat downstream demand. The combined effects of external market linkage, raw material flow, and other factors have driven the market to moderately improve and fluctuate upwards.
International market: multiple factors providing support for volatility and stabilization
The international antimony market fluctuated and adjusted synchronously during the same period this cycle, with the mainstream transaction price range stabilizing at 23000-25000 US dollars per metric ton. After a brief pullback in the early stage, the market gradually stabilized and rebounded this cycle. On the one hand, the United States continued to increase its support for the local antimony supply chain, strengthening its ability to independently control strategic resources. On the other hand, the continued escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has pushed up global energy and shipping costs, while driving up expectations for antimony demand in the defense sector. The dual factors together provide support for international antimony prices; Recently, there has been an abnormal phenomenon of price inversion between antimony oxide and antimony ingots in overseas markets. At the same time, the proportion of antimony raw materials circulating to China in Southeast Asia has significantly increased. Driven by the continuous narrowing of the price difference between domestic and foreign markets, the trend of raw materials returning to China has become increasingly evident, indirectly easing the tight pressure on domestic raw material supply and forming a positive support for the domestic market.
Supply side: rigid and tight, with sufficient price support
Domestic refineries are generally optimistic about the post holiday market this cycle, with a low willingness to ship. They are actively controlling their shipments to reduce the circulation in the spot market, and low-priced sources continue to be scarce. Holders and traders have a strong mentality of hoarding goods, often choosing to reduce spot purchases and wait for the post holiday market to start, further exacerbating the tight balance pattern on the spot side. The difficulty of replenishing raw materials remains high, and high-quality and low-priced antimony concentrate resources are difficult to find. In addition, some mines are limited in production due to seasonal factors, and the tight supply of raw materials supports the mentality of refineries to raise prices. The overall market has no initiative to lower prices and ship, providing bottom support for spot prices.
Demand side: rigid demand dominates and constrains upward movement
Flame retardant materials account for about 55% of the traditional downstream demand for antimony, while glass accounts for about 15%. Antimony is an essential element in photovoltaic glass production and cannot be replaced. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the main increment of antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic field.
Antimony oxide: As the core deep processing product of the antimony industry chain, antimony oxide is the mainstream category, mainly used in the field of flame retardants, and also extended to photovoltaic glass, electronic materials and other scenarios. Its market trend is strongly linked with antimony ingots. Affected by the fluctuation of bromine prices, production costs have significantly increased. Coupled with the restrictive policies of developed countries such as the European Union on halogenated flame retardants, downstream enterprises have limited acceptance of high priced antimony ingots, and their procurement mainly relies on small batches of essential inventory replenishment. The lack of follow-up on actual transactions has to some extent constrained the upward space of antimony ingot prices.

Photovoltaics: As the core demand area for antimony ingots, the photovoltaic glass industry is currently in a period of supply-demand adjustment. Although the global photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to improve, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has shown signs of a month on month rebound in early March, the pressure of high inventory and oversupply in the industry has not been fundamentally alleviated, and the demand for antimony based clarifying agents has slowed down, failing to form a large-scale procurement pull.
Outlook for the future: In the short term, the domestic antimony ingot market will continue its stable to strong oscillation trend, with the core support coming from the rigid and tight supply side pattern. The upstream price stance is firm, and holders have a strong wait-and-see attitude. Spot circulation remains tight, while the positive impact of external market stabilization and raw material return will continue; Although downstream demand is generally flat and it is difficult to form a strong driving force for essential procurement, it will not significantly suppress the market. Under the long short game, the market will maintain a moderate upward trend and there will be no significant fluctuations in the short term. Subsequent focus will be on the evolution of the international geopolitical situation, fluctuations in foreign prices, progress of overseas raw material return, and the recovery of demand in downstream photovoltaic and flame retardant industries.

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 1 to March 16, 2026, the domestic toluene market showed significant fluctuations and an overall upward trend, with a cumulative increase of 30.7% within half a month as of March 16. This market fluctuation is mainly influenced by multiple positive factors such as geopolitical conflicts leading to changes in crude oil prices, domestic supply contraction, and weak downstream demand.
Cost wise: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in the first half of March, international crude oil prices fluctuated significantly, becoming the core cost support driving the upward trend of toluene prices. Affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for navigation. As an important channel for global oil transportation, it has raised concerns about global crude oil supply and driven a significant surge in international oil prices. On March 10th, due to the easing of market concerns about the impact of the Middle East conflict, oil prices experienced a significant decline, with the lowest price of US crude oil falling to $84.43 per barrel, indicating a large overall fluctuation. As of March 13th, the settlement price of the April WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $98.71 per barrel; The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for May is $103.14 per barrel. The significant increase in crude oil prices directly drives up the production cost of toluene, providing core support for the upward trend of market prices. However, the short-term correction of oil prices has also led to a temporary decline in toluene prices, which has simultaneously amplified the volatility of the toluene market.
Supply side:
In the first half of March, the overall supply of toluene in China showed a shrinking trend, coupled with regional market differentiation, which provided strong support for prices. The operating load of domestic and surrounding refineries has decreased, and some main refinery units have reduced their load, resulting in a significant reduction in supply and driving local prices to strengthen; The refineries in the surrounding major production areas have also simultaneously reduced their load, further exacerbating the global tight supply situation and supporting the firm domestic price of toluene.
At the same time, there are slight differences in the trend between domestic regions, but the overall trend is upward. Among them, Shandong region was driven by the expectation of supply tightening, with active negotiations in the early stage and rapid price increases. Later, due to high prices, downstream facilities were shut down, and prices fell back; The supply in Jiangsu region is relatively loose, and overall price fluctuations are relatively mild, with slightly weak spot transactions; Refineries in Guangdong region have generally reduced their burden, resulting in overall tight supply and supporting regional prices. However, downstream production is limited, procurement intentions are low, and transactions are limited. In addition, some domestic refineries have entered the maintenance season, coupled with the obstruction of imported goods supply, exacerbating the expectation of supply tightening. Holders of goods are reluctant to sell and pushing prices higher, further boosting prices.
Demand side:
In the first half of March, the overall demand for toluene in China showed a pattern of “weak demand and insufficient support”, with limited demand support from the PX industry as the core. Coupled with the obstruction of cost transfer, it failed to effectively boost the price of toluene and to some extent suppressed the market increase. The overall demand performance was in sharp contrast to the contraction of the supply side, showing a stage characteristic of supply-demand imbalance. As the core downstream field of toluene, the PX industry entered the maintenance season in March. Multiple sets of PX units at home and abroad underwent centralized maintenance or load reduction, directly leading to a reduction in the demand for toluene procurement. The expected operating load of PX units further decreased to a low level, and the trend of demand shrinkage was obvious.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PX quotation of Sinopec Sales Company fluctuated upward in the first half of March. On March 1st, the quotation was about 7300 yuan/ton, and as of March 16th, it rose to 10050 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 37.7% in the first half of the month; The price of PX in Asia also fluctuated and rose, with an average price of about $1180/ton on March 1st, rising to $1490/ton on March 16th, a cumulative increase of 26.3%. The price increase in foreign markets was slightly lower than that in China.
Market forecast:
Overall, the short-term toluene market is expected to maintain a high volatility trend, with geopolitical conflicts and fluctuations in crude oil prices remaining core cost support variables; The maintenance and load reduction of domestic and foreign refineries continue, and the pattern of supply reduction is difficult to change in the short term, which provides certain support for prices. Continuous attention should be paid to geopolitical dynamics, crude oil trends, and the recovery of PX industry operations.