1、 Price trend
In 2025, the overall trend of China’s aniline market is characterized by “high opening, low decline, low volatility, and phased rebound”, with an average annual price of 9375 yuan/ton and an average price of 7945 yuan/ton at the end of the year. The annual decline is 15.25%, with a fluctuation range of 8000-9400 yuan/ton. ​
2、 The core driving factors of price fluctuations are:
Supply side: The concentrated release of new production capacity in 2025 is the main reason for price pressure. The 360000 tons/year aniline plant of Wanhua Phase II was put into operation on March 31. Although it initially operated at low load, it had a significant impact on market psychology. At the same time, the overall operating rate of the industry remains at a high level of 78-86%, and supply pressure continues to exist. ​
Cost side: The fluctuation of pure benzene prices directly affects the cost of aniline. The price of pure benzene will fluctuate between 5300-7900 yuan/ton in 2025, with an average price of 6459 yuan/ton from January to September, a decrease of 22.26% compared to the average price in 2024. The significant drop in the price of pure benzene provides downward space for the price of aniline, but also limits the height of price rebound. ​​
Demand side: The weak demand for downstream MDI is the fundamental reason for price pressure. Affected by the sustained downturn in the real estate market, the demand for MDI in the fields of building insulation and furniture has declined, and the MDI operating rate has fallen from its high at the beginning of the year to around 62%, directly affecting the demand for aniline. ​
Sudden event: International events have had a pulsating impact on prices. In the second quarter of 2025, the BASF Ludwigshafen plant explosion caused the price of aniline to temporarily rise to $1480 per ton, an increase of 41%. The March Red Sea shipping crisis led to a 25% increase in aniline freight rates on the Asia Europe route and an 18% increase in landed price fluctuations. Although these external events have a short impact time, they have amplified the magnitude of price fluctuations.
3、 Outlook and Forecast of Aniline Market in 2026
Price trend prediction: It is expected that the price of aniline will fluctuate within the range of 8000-10000 yuan/ton in 2026, with a slight increase of 5-8% in average price compared to 2025. Main judgment criteria: Firstly, the growth rate of production capacity has slowed down, and the expected new production capacity in 2026 is only 25000 tons, far lower than the 540000 tons in 2025; Secondly, cost support has been strengthened. With the stabilization and recovery of crude oil prices, pure benzene prices are expected to rebound, providing cost support for aniline prices; Thirdly, demand is gradually recovering. With the stabilization of the real estate market and the release of downstream replenishment demand, the demand for major downstream products such as MDI is expected to stop falling and rebound. ​: The supply-demand imbalance in China’s aniline market will be alleviated to some extent by 2026, but there will still be pressure. It is expected that the annual production will be about 4.2 million tons, with a demand of about 4 million tons and a supply-demand gap of about 200000 tons, which is significantly narrower than the 350000 tons in 2025. On the supply side, with the gradual withdrawal of outdated production capacity and rational investment by enterprises, the speed of capacity expansion will significantly slow down; On the demand side, driven by stable growth policies, downstream demand is expected to moderately recover. ​

Overall, in 2026, the Chinese aniline market is expected to show a development trend of “steady improvement and intensified differentiation”. Looking ahead to 2026, the main factors affecting the aniline market are still concentrated in changes in supply, demand, and cost. Market prices may show a trend of weak first and then strong, with an expected narrow decline in annual average prices compared to 2025. From the supply side, Nanjing Chemical’s 300000 tons/year and Fujian Wanhua’s 360000 tons/year aniline plants will still be put into operation in 2026, which will promote an increase in aniline supply. On the demand side, the downstream MDI growth rate has slowed down, but there is an increase in demand for additives, and the total demand growth rate may be lower than the supply growth rate. Export variables are still a key indicator affecting market prices.

1、 Price trend
In 2025, the overall DMF market in China will present a situation of oversupply, low price operation, and continuous losses in the industry. DMF prices will show a downward trend, with a 10% decline throughout the year. The highest price point was 4200 yuan/ton in February at the beginning of the year, and the lowest price point was 3800 yuan/ton at the end of the year. The price range for the whole year will be between 3900-4100 yuan/ton, fluctuating in the low range throughout the year.
2、 Review of DMF Market in 2025
In 2025, the supply and demand relationship in the DMF market will continue to exceed production capacity, but the total supply will still increase. Downstream industries such as pulp and medicine will have weak demand, resulting in industry profits and widespread losses. The cumulative export volume from January to July has reached 84000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 26.10%. South Korea, Japan, and India are the main export destinations, and the DMF market supply capacity will significantly improve in 2025. The industry will be in a “capacity oversaturation state” throughout the year. Even if companies actively reduce production to maintain prices, it will be difficult to reverse the downward trend of prices. Weak domestic demand will suppress prices, and downstream industries such as polyurethane pulp, electronics, and medicine in China will have weak demand growth. Downstream factories generally adopt a strategy of “replenishment on demand and use as needed”, which cannot provide strong support for the market. Strong exports will slow down the pressure. Driven by the decrease in domestic prices and the growth of overseas demand, The export volume of DMF has been increasing year by year, consuming domestic production capacity and easing inventory pressure.

3、 Industrial chain structure
Upstream: Basic raw materials: Methanol and synthetic ammonia are direct raw materials for the production of dimethylamine (DMA), and price fluctuations have a decisive impact on DMF costs. Enterprises with integrated production capacity of methanol and synthetic ammonia have an absolute advantage in cost control. Midstream: DMF production and supply have mature production processes, with the core being the carbonyl synthesis of dimethylamine and carbon monoxide. The industry concentration is high, and production capacity is mainly distributed in Shandong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and other places. Currently, it faces serious overcapacity and homogeneous competition, with meager profits. Downstream: diversified application areas, polyurethane synthetic leather/PU Slurry: This is the largest consumer sector, accounting for over 50%. Acrylic spinning, as a solvent for wet spinning, has relatively stable demand. Pharmaceuticals and pesticides, as important organic synthesis reaction solvents, have strong demand rigidity. Emerging fields include electronic chemicals, used as PCB photoresist diluents, requiring electronic grade ultra-high purity, which is the direction with the highest added value and the greatest growth potential. Lithium ion batteries, as a potential choice for electrolyte solvents, are in the research and application exploration stage and may bring demand growth in the future.

4、 Development Trends of DMF Market in 2026:
Overall situation: Currently, there is a severe overcapacity in the domestic DMF market, and the industry’s profit margins continue to be under pressure. The market has entered a period of deep integration.
Price trend: It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate in the low range near the cost line throughout the year, with little expectation of price increases. Downstream demand is weak, and there is a lack of strong support for upward momentum.
Supply side trend: In recent years, DMF production capacity has continued to expand, and the low demand has led to the gradual elimination and integration of smaller domestic production capacity. Continued losses may force some high cost and old equipment to permanently exit the market, slowing down the expansion speed of production capacity. Against the backdrop of low efficiency of new production capacity, the decision to add new projects will be more cautious, and the expansion speed is expected to slow down.
Trend on the demand side: The market economy is slowly recovering, with traditional downstream (pulp, leather, etc.) demand dominated by rigid procurement, and emerging fields (such as electronics, lithium batteries, pharmaceuticals) experiencing slow demand. The dependence on exports is increasing. With stable demand in major export markets such as South Korea and India, exports will continue to be an important channel for capacity consumption, and the volume of exports will directly affect the domestic supply-demand balance.
competitive landscape
The domestic DMF production capacity is relatively concentrated, mainly in East and North China, supplemented by Central/Northwest China, and matched with downstream polyurethane and electronic chemical clusters.

DMF production capacity
The overall trend of production capacity in 2026 is shifting from “quantity growth” to “structural optimization”, and the growth rate of total production capacity will significantly slow down or even show negative growth. The market has entered a stage of stock adjustment, and continuous losses will force some old facilities with high costs, outdated technology, and small scale to be permanently shut down. The addition of new production capacity in 2026 is relatively small, and the willingness to start new projects in the plan is low, with a high possibility of delay or cancellation. Whether top enterprises maintain or reduce production capacity will have a significant impact on the overall market supply and psychological expectations. In summary, the core theme of DMF production capacity in 2026 is “clearing” rather than “expansion”.
In terms of exports
It is expected that DMF export volume will continue to be an important support for the domestic market in 2026, but its growth rate and stability are facing challenges. Price competitiveness, domestic low-priced sources are still attractive, and the supply chain is stable. China’s mature chemical supply chain can provide stable supply, traditional demand, and manufacturing demand in major destinations such as South Korea, India, and Japan.

In terms of imports
China’s industrial grade DMF import sources: By 2025, China’s industrial grade DMF has achieved complete self-sufficiency in domestic production, with almost no large-scale import demand. Currently, China’s imported DMF is mainly high-end electronic grade, mostly from BASF in Germany, OCI in South Korea, and Mitsubishi Chemical in Japan. The global industrial grade DMF import sources are highly concentrated in China, Vietnam, and the United States. It is expected that the DMF import volume in 2026 will be 28000 to 32000 tons, about -25% year-on-year.
In terms of consumption volume
The overall consumption growth of DMF is expected to face pressure in 2026, with weak domestic traditional demand and a high dependence on exports and emerging industries. The consumption structure is expected to remain stable or slightly shrink in traditional industries (PU pulp, acrylic fiber, pharmaceuticals, etc.), making it difficult to provide incremental new industries (electronic chemicals, lithium battery solvents, etc.). Exports have become a key factor in the consumption structure, and their proportion may further increase.

technical aspects
Leading enterprises: Leveraging their funding and research and development advantages, they will invest heavily in catalyst innovation, intelligent production, and electronic product development, building technological barriers. Featured enterprises may develop expertise in purification technology or customized services for specific high-end products, achieving differentiated survival. Industry impact: Any major breakthrough in key cost reduction technologies (such as new catalysts) may reshape the industry cost curve and accelerate the clearance of outdated production capacity.
5、 Future prospects
In recent years, due to the oversupply of DMF production capacity in China, enterprises have turned their attention to the international market and actively developed export trade. The export volume of DMF is also relatively large. Currently, some foreign DMF production enterprises plan to close their existing production facilities due to environmental protection, production costs, and other factors. This also provides an opportunity for China’s DMF production enterprises to develop foreign trade. It is expected that there will still be a large export volume in China every year by 2026. With the continuous development of downstream DMF products and the increasing demand gap abroad, China’s DMF will still have great development prospects. Overall, DMF is expected to steadily rise in 2026.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall price of lithium carbonate in 2025 shows a V-shaped trend. In the first half of the year, the price fell all the way to near the cost line, and in the second half, it hit the bottom and rebounded steadily, rising steadily. Can lithium carbonate continue to break through and create new glory in 2026?
（1） Market Review in 2025
In the first half of the year, due to oversupply and increasing production capacity on the supply side, coupled with slow demand growth and tariff policies, the price of lithium carbonate continued to bottom out, falling from 76400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 58000 yuan/ton by the end of June, a decrease of 24%; In the second half of the year, there will be a turning point. Firstly, the tariff war will ease, and there will be a wave of export competition in the energy storage market. Secondly, the anti internal competition policy in the new energy industry points out the elimination of outdated production capacity. Finally, under the supply shock brought by the shutdown of mines represented by Ningde Times, prices will quickly rise, reaching a 40% increase in two months; With the closure and landing of Jianxiawo, market sentiment has subsided and prices have fallen back to around 70000 yuan; Subsequently, in the third quarter, with the surge in demand for energy storage orders, the entire lithium battery industry chain exploded, providing strong support for the price of lithium carbonate, which skyrocketed and exceeded 100000 to the highest level of the year.
（2） Supply side in 2026: Expected to maintain high growth
2.1 Domestic lithium resource development continues to advance and is expected to continue to grow
By 2025, China’s lithium carbonate production capacity will increase by approximately 260000 tons. The expected new production capacity of lithium carbonate in China in 2026 is 500000 to 600000 tons.
The main new production capacity of Salt Lake in 2025
Expected to add major new production capacity in the salt lake end by 2026
Main new production capacity of spodumene end in 2025
Main new production capacity of spodumene end in 2026
The main new production capacity for lithium recycling and extraction in 2025
The new production capacity of mica end lithium carbonate in 2026 mainly comes from the technological transformation and capacity expansion of existing enterprises rather than new construction projects
2.2 Overseas new production capacity mainly focuses on low-cost projects, promoting the integration of lithium carbonate into low-cost industries
By 2025, the overseas lithium carbonate production capacity will increase by approximately 197000 tons, with South American salt lakes contributing about 76000 tons, African lithium mines contributing about 98000 tons, and Australian lithium mines contributing about 54000 tons.
By 2025, Chinese enterprises will participate in investing in key overseas projects
The expected increase in overseas lithium carbonate production capacity by 2026 is 300000 to 350000 tons, mainly from Africa (120000 to 150000 tons), South American salt lakes (70000 to 100000 tons), North America (30000 to 40000 tons), and Australia (50000 to 60000 tons).
Main regional projects
（3） Demand for lithium carbonate in 2026: rapid growth in energy storage
3.1 Slow growth in demand for power batteries
In 2025, the sales growth rate of new energy vehicles will slow down due to factors such as high penetration rate and high sales base of new energy vehicles, as well as slow overall sales growth of automobiles.
The total installed capacity of power batteries in China from January to November 2025 was 671.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42%.
The expected installed capacity of power batteries in China in 2026 is between 680-800GWh, with a year-on-year increase of about 15-25%.

3.2 Rapid growth in energy storage demand
In 2025, China’s energy storage industry will achieve a historic breakthrough, with both the number of recruits and installed capacity setting records. The total newly installed capacity for the year was 151 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 53%. By 2025, the domestic energy storage recruitment volume will soar to 364GWh, an annual increase of 261%
By 2026, it is expected that the newly installed capacity will reach 194-265GWh, a year-on-year increase of 30-60%
3.3 Overseas energy storage market continues to experience high growth
In 2025, the global energy storage market will add 247 GWh of installed capacity, a year-on-year increase of 23%. It is expected to add 360 GWh in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 33%.
（4） In 2025, there will be a trend of destocking in China, and by 2026, there may be a tight balance
In 2025, the Chinese lithium carbonate market will present a pattern of “surplus in the first half of the year and shortage in the second half”, with a basic balance or slight shortage of supply and demand throughout the year (-3 to+10000 tons), and inventory will continue to deplete by about 20000 to 50000 tons. It is expected to further develop towards a tight supply-demand balance by 2026.
（5） Price Outlook for 2026
Looking ahead to 2026, under the conditions of high supply and explosive demand, it is expected that China’s lithium carbonate will further develop towards a tight supply-demand balance, and the price center will move up to 100000-150000 yuan/ton.

Market Overview: Prices continue to decline (12.10-12.24)
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 24th, the average price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 4166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.3% in mid December. Under the combined effects of increasing supply pressure, weakened cost support, and flat demand, the market has continued its downward trend since December.
Supply side: Device restart, supply pressure becomes core negative
The significant increase in supply is the fundamental reason for the current market turn. Since December, devices that were previously shut down or undergoing maintenance have been restarted and produced at full capacity. Faced with an increase in supply, some production enterprises have accumulated inventory. In order to promote sales and reduce inventory pressure, they have adopted price reduction strategies, further exacerbating the bearish sentiment in the market and the downward inertia of prices.
Demand side: Strong demand is dominant, with low willingness to buy
Downstream demand has failed to provide effective support to the market. The main downstream industries such as polycarbonate and pharmaceutical solid light mostly maintain production through essential procurement, and generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market, cautious in entering the market for procurement. When the price is in a downward channel, the downstream mentality of “buying up and not buying down” is obvious, only maintaining small orders and replenishing on demand, unable to digest the rapidly increasing supply, resulting in difficulty in increasing market transactions.
Cost side: Raw material prices decline, support level shifts downwards
As of December 24th, the benchmark price of epoxy propane, the main raw material, was 7850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.88% within this ten day period. The synchronous decline in raw material costs has significantly weakened the cost support for dimethyl carbonate. In the context of the already prominent supply-demand contradiction, the downward shift of the cost center has opened up greater downward space for product prices, weakening the ability of production enterprises to raise prices.
Outlook for the future: The supply-demand game continues, and the market may continue to experience weak fluctuations
In mid December, the dimethyl carbonate market continued its clear downward trend under the triple pressure of supply recovery, flat demand, and cost collapse. Among them, the rapid recovery of the supply side is the most core contradiction that has led to the current market turn and sustained downturn. Looking ahead to the future, whether the market can stop falling and stabilize depends on whether the situation of oversupply can be alleviated through proactive production cuts by enterprises. Until clear signals of supply contraction appear, it is expected that the market will maintain a weak and volatile pattern.

At the end of December, the domestic PS market was mainly weak and consolidated. Most spot prices of certain brands have limited fluctuations. According to the bulk ranking data of Shengyi Society, as of December 23, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s PS was 7450 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase or decrease of -1.32%.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: Recently, the operating rate of the domestic polystyrene industry has slightly rebounded. Some units of enterprises such as Guangxi Petrochemical and Lianyungang Petrochemical are gradually returning, and the overall industry load has been narrowly increased to 60%. The supply of genuine materials is abundant, with only a few models experiencing tight supply. The current inventory position is relatively controllable, and there are still expectations of relaxed market supply. Overall, the supply side’s support for PS is average.
Cost factor: Recently, the styrene market has fallen more than it has risen. The raw material pure benzene was concentrated at the port in the first half of the month. Current port inventory accumulation. And crude oil support weakened, while double bearish dragged pure benzene to maintain weak operation. The styrene seller camp tends to operate in a decentralized manner. Downstream 3S production has been reduced, suppressing demand. It is expected that the styrene market will fluctuate weakly in the short term.
In terms of demand, the profitability of terminal enterprises continues to be sluggish, and the downstream electrical shell industry of PS has not seen any improvement in production scheduling, with a generally low year-on-year trend. In addition, there is no expected increase in terminal load in the future. The downstream demand for PS is high and difficult to meet, with a small number of buyers following up. The overall stocking logic maintains the need for replenishment, and the flow rate of goods supply slows down. Merchants’ inventory positions are deadlocked, the market maintains a cautious atmosphere, and trading momentum is average. Overall, the demand side provides average support for the PS market.
Future forecast
At the end of December, the domestic PS market fluctuated weakly. The production load of the aggregation plant is stable with small increases, and the balance of consumer demand is mainly broad. Business analysts believe that the upstream styrene target range has turned high and fallen, while the demand side of PS lacks positive guidance in the short term, and it is expected that the market will continue to consolidate.