This week, the domestic price of polyvinyl alcohol remained stable and rose. As of April 23rd, the benchmark price of polyvinyl alcohol in Shengyishe was 12266.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.27% compared to last week (12233.00 yuan/ton). During the week, the polyvinyl alcohol market was mainly driven by first-time transactions, with average support for exports. Dealers often offered more discounts for shipments, and the cautious attitude of middle and downstream merchants remains.

Supply side:

This week, the market price of vinyl acetate fluctuated and fell. The current price of vinyl acetate raw material acetic acid continues to rise, and the price of acetic acid continues to rise. As of April 22, the benchmark price of acetic acid for Shengyishe was 3450.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.29% compared to the beginning of this month (3100.00 yuan/ton). In the past 10 days, it has increased by 6.15%, in 15 days it has increased by 10.40%, in 20 days it has increased by 11.29%, and in 30 days it has increased by 15.00%. The domestic market price of vinyl acetate remained stable during the week, with a price range of around 6343 yuan/ton.

The market price of calcium carbide is also stable. As of April 23, the benchmark price of calcium carbide in Shengyishe was 3000.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of this month. Poor cost support; Mainstream manufacturers in East China have parked their equipment, and the market’s spot resources have decreased compared to before. However, downstream demand continues to decline, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is poor. Actual market transactions are limited, and the market atmosphere is weak;

Polyvinyl Alcohol (PVA) Industry Chain

On the demand side:

From the perspective of domestic demand for polyvinyl alcohol, polymerization additives, fabric slurries, adhesives, vinylon fibers, papermaking slurries and coatings, and building coatings products have weak consumption of raw materials. Enterprises mainly purchase on a per order basis, and the accumulation of raw material inventory is limited. Production is coming to an end, and the demand for raw materials is weakening. There is currently no good news for other terminal enterprises, and there is a slight room for concessions in the price of polyvinyl alcohol in the later stage.

Overall

Supply side support is positive, but there is still a strong sentiment of price support, with a focus on price protection, and the mentality of cargo holders is still acceptable. Downstream users will continue to purchase on demand, and it is expected that the price of polyvinyl alcohol will remain stable in recent market discussions.

This week, domestic cobalt prices followed suit

According to the cobalt market analysis system of Business Society, the cobalt price on April 23 was 219500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.75% compared to the cobalt price of 223400 yuan/ton on April 15; The cobalt price has dropped by 2.01% compared to 224000 yuan/ton on April 1st. The proportion of installed capacity of ternary batteries has decreased, and the demand for cobalt in the market is less favorable than expected. International cobalt prices have fallen, and domestic cobalt prices have fallen again this week.

According to the cobalt market analysis system of Business Society, cobalt prices have continued to decline recently, and this week the decline in cobalt prices has accelerated, with the weekly decline in cobalt prices reaching the largest decline in 24 years.

The proportion of installed capacity of ternary batteries has decreased

According to data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in terms of vehicle installation volume, in March, the installed volume of ternary batteries was 11.3GWh, accounting for 32.4% of the total installed volume, a year-on-year increase of 29.7% and a month on month increase of 62.9%; From January to March, the cumulative installed capacity of ternary batteries was 30.9Wh, accounting for 36.2% of the total installed capacity, with a year-on-year increase of 47.8%. The installed capacity of ternary batteries increased on a month on month basis, but the proportion of installed capacity of ternary batteries decreased. The demand for cobalt in ternary batteries grew less than expected, which is bearish for the cobalt market.

International cobalt price decline

According to the cobalt price trend chart of the London futures trading market, it can be seen that cobalt prices have been weakly consolidating since mid March, and cobalt prices have fallen this week. The decline in international cobalt prices is bearish for the domestic cobalt market.

Overview and Outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at Business Society, the proportion of installed capacity of ternary batteries has decreased, and the demand for cobalt in the market has not increased as expected. The international cobalt price has fallen, which is negative for the domestic cobalt market. It is expected that cobalt prices will consolidate weakly at a low level in the future.

Sinopec East China Phenol Ketone Enterprise has raised its acetone price by 450 yuan/ton, with an execution rate of 8200 yuan/ton. Sinopec North China Phenol Ketone Enterprise has raised its acetone price by 450 yuan/ton, with an execution rate of 8150-8200 yuan/ton. The market is facing tight supply of goods, and the market in various mainstream regions has seen a significant increase with the increase in factory listed prices. The procurement intensity is average, and the trading volume needs to be released. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the national acetone market has risen from 7487 yuan/ton on April 15th to 8112.5 yuan/ton on April 22nd, with a cumulative increase of 8.35%, with a daily increase of 7% on April 22nd.

On the 22nd, mainstream domestic factories significantly increased their prices by 450 yuan/ton, implementing a price range of 8150-8200 yuan/ton.

On April 22nd, the acetone offers in major mainstream markets across the country were as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ Rise and fall range (4.15-22)

East China region/ 8250./950

Shandong region/ 8000./700

Yanshan region/ 8000./600

South China region/ 8150./850

The raw materials have been significantly driven, the supply of pure benzene has tightened, and prices continue to rise.

From a downstream perspective, in the MIBK industry, Anhui Zhonghuifa and Hunan Changde are planning to add new units for production. If these two units are successfully put into operation, it will significantly increase demand for acetone and have a significant impact on their market.

The supply side has tightened, and the demand side has also improved. It is expected to remain strong in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the PVC spot market price fluctuated slightly this week, with a slight decrease. On Monday, the average domestic PVC price was 5566 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 5662 yuan/ton. The price was reduced by 0.07% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The PVC spot market prices have fluctuated slightly this week, with a slight decrease. Overall, the confidence in the spot market is average, with little change in prices on the market. Manufacturers’ quotations are generally stable, and traders’ prices are relatively flexible. Downstream procurement is relatively cautious, with a strong wait-and-see attitude and a weak market atmosphere, resulting in average transactions. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 type carbide materials in China is mostly around 5300-5750 yuan/ton.

On April 18th, international crude oil futures continued to decline. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $82.10 per barrel, a decrease of $0.05 or 0.1%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $87.11 per barrel, a decrease of $0.18 or 0.2%.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by Business Society, the prices of calcium carbide manufacturers have slightly decreased. On Monday, the average price of domestic calcium carbide was 3016.67 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 3000 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 0.55% during the week. The PVC market is experiencing low volatility, and the process of removing calcium carbide inventory is relatively slow.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society PVC analysts believe that the PVC spot market has experienced slight fluctuations this week. Upstream calcium carbide prices have slightly decreased, with average cost support. The performance of PVC in both markets is average, with little change on the market and average market confidence. It is expected that the PVC spot market will continue to fluctuate and consolidate within the range in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price trend of domestic light rare earth market has slightly increased. On April 17, the rare earth index was 391 points, a decrease of 61.17% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 44.28% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

The prices of domestic neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide have slightly increased. As of the 18th, the price of neodymium oxide was 385000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.99% this week; The price of neodymium metal is 502500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.03% this week; The price of praseodymium oxide is 392500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.61% this week; The price of praseodymium metal is 527500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.44% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 490000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.03% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 387500 yuan/ton, with a 1.97% increase this week.

Recently, the domestic light rare earth market prices have risen, with increased transactions and improved inquiries in the domestic rare earth market. Downstream enterprises have increased their purchases recently, and production and separation enterprises in Inner Mongolia have resumed work; In addition, some magnetic material companies have started purchasing, leading to an increase in the price trend of light rare earths. Recently, some rare earth raw material imports have decreased, downstream manufacturers have depleted their inventory, and purchasing sentiment has increased, leading to an upward trend in the rare earth market.

According to statistics, in March 2024, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 863000 and 883000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 28.1% and 35.3%, respectively. From January to March 2024, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 2.115 million and 2.09 million respectively, an increase of 28.2% and 31.8% year-on-year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, providing strong support for the rare earth market, with the domestic rare earth market mainly rising.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. Recently, two domestic departments announced the first batch of rare earth mining indicators for 2024, with a slowdown in the growth rate of the indicators. In addition, China’s rare earth exports from January to March 2024 were 13483.5 tons, while China’s rare earth exports in March were 4709.6 tons; It has a certain positive support effect on the domestic market, and the light rare earth market has slightly risen.

Market forecast: Recently, magnetic material companies have seen a surge in purchasing and ordering sentiment, and the inquiry situation has improved compared to before. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will mainly rise in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.