In June, the domestic price of butadiene rubber continued to fall, and the market’s long short game intensified. Whether the market hit bottom has become the focus of industry attention. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of June 11th, the price of domestic butadiene rubber in East China has fallen to 13620 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.69% compared to the price before the outbreak of the US Iran conflict, and a decrease of 24.92% from the high point of 18140 yuan/ton in early April.
This round of decline is mainly dragged down by raw materials. Recently, the price of butadiene has continued to weaken, directly lowering the industry’s cost center. Coupled with the spread of pessimistic market sentiment, the price of butadiene has declined accordingly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 11th, the price of butadiene was 10486 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44.32% from the high point of 18833 yuan/ton since the Middle East conflict. The current market price is close to the industry’s cash cost line, and most production enterprises are hovering at the break even point. Continuing to significantly reduce prices will force equipment to reduce production, and the cost side will build a solid bottom support.
The overall supply side presents a relaxed pattern. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants remains high, coupled with the gradual release of some new production capacity, the market supply of goods is steadily increasing. As of June 4th, the construction of Shunding Rubber started at around 6.70%. At the same time, the amount of imported goods arriving at the port has rebounded, and port inventory has accumulated slightly, which to some extent suppresses the rebound of spot prices. However, after the concentrated selling in the early stage, the low-priced supply in the market gradually decreased, and the panic selling pressure has been basically released.
The demand side remains the core factor restricting the rebound of the market. June to July is the traditional off-season for the tire industry, with domestic tire factories maintaining low operating rates, and both semi steel and all steel tire operating data showing lackluster performance. As of June 10th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has reached around 70%; The construction of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong region has reached about 6.80%. The enterprise only focuses on essential procurement and has a low willingness to replenish raw materials. In addition, changes in the overseas trade environment have also put pressure on tire export orders, making it difficult for downstream overall demand to show outstanding performance.
Market forecast:
From the spot price and moving average chart of butadiene rubber, it can be seen that from May to early May 2026, the price of butadiene rubber showed a unilateral downward trend, and the price remained below the moving averages on the 10th and 20th. The moving averages were bearish, and the downward trend continued and accelerated in the later period.

On June 10th, the supply side remained tight, and the market price center remained firm, with sporadic quotes in the spot market. The mainstream market spot price in East China closed at 7160 yuan/ton,+40 yuan/ton; The South China market closed at 7300 yuan/ton,+50 yuan/ton; CFR China closed at $874/ton,+6 $/ton.
Fundamental analysis:
Unit: The 800000 ton ethylene glycol/diethylene glycol unit in Hainan will start shutdown and maintenance over the weekend, and is expected to continue until November. The 750000 ton ethylene glycol/diethylene glycol unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical will be scheduled for maintenance and shutdown starting from yesterday, with an expected shutdown time of about 10 days. A 280000 ton/year ethylene glycol/diethylene glycol unit of Sinopec will be shut down and maintained last weekend; Individual facilities in Iran have restarted, while three sets of facilities in Taiwan and Malaysia have restarted, releasing signals for the early shutdown of facilities due to raw materials.
Supply: Short term low load operation of domestic facilities, no substantial progress in ocean freight sources, and overall supply is still relatively low. As of June 8th, the inventory of diethylene glycol ports in East China was 12600 tons, an increase of 0.06 million tons compared to the previous statistical cycle. This week (June 9-15), there are no plans for Zhangjiagang Diethylene Glycol to arrive at the port. Downstream orders are lukewarm, with many urgent purchases, and the main ports in East China maintain the expectation of destocking.
Demand: Downstream polyester and unsaturated resin are operating at low load. According to statistics, as of June 4th, the average operating rate of domestic unsaturated resin factories is 32%, which is the same as the previous period. Manufacturers purchase raw materials on demand. According to statistics, from June 5th to June 7th, a total of 637 tons were shipped from the two storage areas in Zhangjiagang, with an average daily shipment of 212 tons. On June 9th, the total shipment volume from the two storage areas in Zhangjiagang was 367 tons, an increase of 11 tons from the previous day, and the performance of port pickup further contracted.
Market outlook: Currently, the supply and demand of the diethylene glycol market are weak, with downstream demand dominating prices, especially the poor performance of north-south demand. Short term prices are still strong spot prices with weak expectations, and are subject to wide fluctuations due to emotions. Forward prices will further expand, with a focus on the follow-up of downstream demand, the substantial opening of the Strait of Hormuz in ceasefire negotiations, the efficiency of crude oil and imported cargo output, and the recovery level after the destruction of foreign facilities.

Recently, lithium carbonate has experienced a sharp decline. As of June 9th, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate in Shengyi Society was 162000 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 18% from the previous high of 199000 yuan/ton (May 12th). The comprehensive disintegration of the positive logic on the supply side, the concentrated release of inventory pressure, and multiple factors jointly promote the reversal of market trends.
Sudden changes in inventory data are the core logic that triggers price declines
Previously, the market generally used “low inventory and tight supply” as the bullish core logic, but recently the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has continued to soar, reaching 56000 tons on June 3, equivalent to half a month’s total domestic production. Affected by the fact that spot prices are lower than futures prices, holders of goods have registered spot goods as warehouse receipt arbitrage. At the same time, the market reaction shows that the quality of warehouse receipts is poor, unable to meet production needs, weak purchasing intentions, and further accumulation of warehouse receipts, forming a vicious cycle of “price decline – warehouse receipt increase – price further decline”.
Overseas lithium mine supply resumes, reversing market concerns about raw material shortages
In February of this year, Zimbabwe announced a suspension of lithium concentrate exports, which caused market panic and led to a surge in lithium prices. However, since mid May, locally approved Chinese enterprises have been shipping lithium mines one after another, and the actual supply reduction is much lower than market expectations. Australia is also accelerating the release of production capacity. Bald Hill lithium mine under Mineral Resources announced the resumption of production, and spodumene concentrate can be produced in July, with a much faster resumption rate than previously predicted by institutions. Stimulated by high prices, multiple lithium mines around the world have accelerated their resumption of production. The market’s previous panic about lithium mine supply cuts has completely dissipated, and the tight supply premium has quickly fallen back.
Energy storage demand dividend supports the bottom of lithium prices
The new energy vehicle market presents a pattern of “quantity reduction, unit consumption increase”. In May, the estimated wholesale of new energy vehicles by passenger car manufacturers nationwide reached 1.36 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12% and a month on month increase of 11%, barely maintaining a slight increase in the total installed capacity of power batteries. The industry is no longer able to achieve explosive growth in lithium demand solely based on sales volume. As the largest incremental demand for energy storage, it is the core catalyst for the early recovery of lithium carbonate. At present, the top battery companies are basically in full production, and some companies’ orders have been scheduled until early next year. Both upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are operating at full capacity. From the perspective of battery cell production scheduling, there is a strong demand for energy storage projects, which are currently not sensitive to material prices and provide bottom support.
Overall, the current decline in lithium carbonate is the result of a synchronous shift in supply and inventory logic. However, the strong demand for new energy vehicles and explosive growth in energy storage demand may limit the downward space for lithium prices. The subsequent price trend mainly depends on the speed of new supply landing in the third quarter and the sustained ability of energy storage demand, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term.

Recently, the overall domestic asphalt market has shown a strong upward trend, driven by refinery production cuts and maintenance, as well as a significant reduction in supply. The market supply has fallen to a new low, highlighting the structural imbalance between supply and demand, which has driven the asphalt market prices to continue to rise. The overall situation is characterized by tight supply and firm prices.
Recently, the domestic asphalt market has shown a trend of low supply and high prices, with market supply once again breaking historical lows, and spot and futures prices continuing to rise. Data shows that the current comprehensive capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt manufacturers is only 13.6%, hitting a historical low. The weekly production has decreased significantly compared to the previous period, and the overall available spot resources are very scarce.
The core reason for the significant contraction in supply is the concentrated maintenance of multiple refineries, coupled with the conversion of some units to residual oil, and the loss of processing profits and low production willingness of refineries. In June, the production schedule of local refineries decreased significantly year-on-year and month on month. The demand side is showing a trend of differentiation, with better weather in the north, steady progress in infrastructure and road construction, and a rebound in downstream essential procurement, providing strong support for prices.
At present, the imbalance between supply and demand in the market continues. Although the rainy season in the south has to some extent suppressed terminal construction, the overall demand resilience is still acceptable. In the short term, the low-level supply pattern of asphalt is difficult to improve quickly, and the shortage of supply will continue. The market price is expected to remain high and fluctuate.

1、 Market Overview
This week, the domestic potassium chloride (imported) market has ended its previous downward trend and shown a trend of stabilization and recovery. According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of June 5th, the benchmark price of potassium chloride (imported) was 3583.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.47% from 3566.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month (June 1st). Although the end of spring plowing demand has led to a low willingness to prepare agricultural fertilizers, the low inventory at ports and the finalization of international contract prices have provided strong bottom support for the domestic market.
2、 Technical analysis of spot market in Shengyi Society
Based on the average deviation indicator and price position analysis tool provided by Business Society’s spot trading platform, the following is an interpretation of this week’s trend:
1. Change in Mean Deviation:
From the recent 5-day trend chart, it can be seen more clearly that although the 20 day moving average (blue line) is still showing a slow downward trend, the solid line representing short-term prices and the 10 day moving average (red line) have shown significant rebound, indicating that short-term buying power is accumulating and the downward trend is being contained.
2. Location analysis:
According to the table data, although it is at a high level in the short term, it is still at a “medium” and “low” level at the “60 day level” and “90 day level”. This means that from a longer-term perspective, the current price has not deviated from the reasonable range and there is still room for repair. However, it also suggests that there may be pressure to lock up the market in the early stage.
3、 Analysis of Fundamental Driving Factors
The supporting logic of the market this week mainly stems from structural tension on the supply side:
1. Demand side: With the basic end of spring plowing and fertilizer use, the agricultural market demand has entered a window period. The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is less than 40%, and industrial procurement is limited to small orders for essential needs, resulting in a sluggish overall trading atmosphere and limiting the significant increase in prices.
2. Supply side: Port inventory has dropped to a low level, and the replenishment of new goods is slow, resulting in a tight supply of goods in the market and a strong willingness of holders to raise prices. The annual potassium fertilizer contract price in India has been finalized, establishing an upward shift in the international potassium fertilizer pricing benchmark. This news directly boosted market confidence, suppressed the downward space of domestic prices, and solidified the bottom of prices.
4、 Future forecast
Overall, this week’s potassium chloride (import) market has shown characteristics of “high-level consolidation and slight rebound” under the game of supply support and weak demand: the price has remained stable at the 3580 yuan/ton mark, the moving average system has stabilized, and it is difficult to break through the pressure level of 3600 yuan/ton in the short term; In the medium to long term, the downward space is limited due to low port inventory and international price support.
Short term forecast: With the establishment of a signal for the moving average to cross, prices are expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term. However, due to the lack of agricultural demand and insufficient driving force for a significant increase, it is expected to dominate with a narrow range of fluctuations.