According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, starting from the end of December, with the support of favorable factors, the domestic adipic acid market has steadily risen. On December 26th, the average market price of adipic acid was 6833 yuan/ton. On January 6th, the average market price of adipic acid in China was 7266 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.34%.
Lido supports steady rise in domestic adipic acid market
Due to the continuous decline in the previous adipic acid market, it has already been at a low level. Starting from the end of December, the market for adipic acid has gradually risen and continued to rise, with the average market price reaching around 7300 yuan/ton, an increase of about 500 yuan/ton. The current upward trend is mainly boosted by the raw material pure benzene market, and the terminal rigid demand is still acceptable.
Let’s analyze whether the adipic acid market can continue to rise in the future?
Supply side: The operating rate of domestic manufacturers remains at a high level, and the market supply is sufficient. Although some individual devices may undergo routine maintenance, the overall supply is secure. Social inventory and factory inventory need to be digested. Cautious attitude towards downstream stocking: In the context of uncertainty in the economic environment, downstream users generally adopt a “buy as you go” strategy, and the possibility of large-scale centralized stocking is low, which makes it difficult to form a sustained market pull.
Demand side: From New Year’s Day to Spring Festival, downstream nylon and polyurethane will gradually enter the off-season of production. The factory operating rate will decrease, mainly to fulfill existing orders and pre holiday stocking, with limited expected new orders. The terminal industry (spinning) is also in the pre holiday closing stage and has a weak willingness to purchase raw materials.
An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in mid January, the rigid demand in the terminal industry was average, and the support of the raw material market was limited. Therefore, the market for adipic acid may weaken in the future.

According to the company’s commodity market analysis system, at the end of 2025, the price of formic acid declined, and as of January 5, 2016, 85% of the company’s domestic industrial grade formic acid benchmark price was 2300 yuan / ton, down 8.6% from 2500 yuan / ton on December 24, 2015.
Recent domestic formal acid market price movements can be clearly divided into two core stages, the overall presentation of the characteristics of “rapid downward stability”:
The first phase is the price downward phase (December 24-December 25). On December 24, the domestic formic acid market was stable and the mainstream trading price was maintained at 2500 yuan / ton, but at this time the market has hidden downward risks. With the completion of the maintenance of the main unit in Chatecheng, the new production capacity in Hubei Jingzhou was realized, and the supply and demand contradictions intensified. The next day (December 25) The market price dropped significantly, the mainstream trading price fell to 2300 yuan / ton, a single-day drop of 200 yuan / ton, a drop of nearly 8%, the downward trend of the market is clear.
The second phase is the lateral finishing phase (December 26-January 5). Since December 26, the domestic formal acid market entered the lateral finishing situation, and the mainstream trading price continued to stabilize at 2300 yuan / ton. During this period, despite the increasing pressure on the supply side, the price did not change significantly, and the market entered a short-term supply and demand stagnation.
Core Impact Factor Analysis
(1) Supply side: production capacity release overlapping inventory is high, market relaxation pattern has been determined
Recently, the supply side of the formic acid market has continued to expand, becoming the core factor of price suppression. On the one hand, the new production capacity has been released, the main production unit has been repaired and restored to full load operation, and the new production capacity in Hubei Jingzhou has been gradually raised to full load after the smooth deployment. The Hubei factory alone has increased the domestic daily supply by 600 tons, and the overall supply of goods has increased significantly. On the other hand, the inventory pressure is high, the initial backlog inventory maintains a medium to high level and is not fully digested, and the new production capacity further intensifies the accumulation of inventory, and the enterprises go to Inventory pressure continues to climb. In this context, manufacturers have actively lowered the quotation to relieve inventory pressure. Although the quotation is temporary, the loosening behavior such as low-price targeted supply has reflected the passive situation on the supply side.
(2) Demand side: strong expectations, low purchasing willingness constrains price recovery
The weak performance on the demand side further exacerbated the supply and demand contradiction in the market. Since December 24, downstream buyers have generally held an optimistic attitude, and the trading atmosphere continues to be cold. After the price decline on December 25, the optimistic mood in the terminal market has not eased, but has grown stronger. Most buyers tend to wait for prices to stabilize and buy again, resulting in a weak market procurement willingness. Proactive procurement behavior, it is difficult to form effective demand momentum to support the price recovery.

The analyst believes that in combination with the current market supply and demand pattern and price system changes, the domestic market for formic acid is still dominated by “stable and weakening” in the short term, and there is a possibility of further weakening of prices. Specifically, it is still necessary to pay attention to market supply and demand changes.

In 2025, the production capacity of nitrile rubber in China will increase slightly, mainly due to the 40000 tons/year new installation of Alangtai Rubber being put into production in January, while its 30000 tons/year old unit will be withdrawn in April. The total production capacity of nitrile rubber in 2025 is 295000 tons, with an increase of 3.51%. The estimated supply of nitrile rubber in China is expected to reach a historic high.
After a small consumption trough in 2024, the demand for nitrile rubber will see a slight increase again in 2025. On the one hand, it is driven by the domestic construction machinery industry and the automotive industry, which in turn drives domestic consumption. On the other hand, downstream enterprises are gradually increasing their overseas demand expansion, further increasing the consumption of nitrile rubber. From the perspective of consumption structure, in 2025, the demand for nitrile rubber will still be dominated by automotive and industrial seals/hoses, accounting for about 70%, followed by foam/shoe material consumption accounting for 15%, and medical/protective and other consumption accounting for 15%.
The raw material cost of nitrile rubber (NBR) accounts for 75-80% (60-65% butadiene, 20-25% acrylonitrile). Affected by raw material prices, the overall cost of nitrile rubber will gradually decrease from high to low in 2025. The domestic acrylonitrile market in 2025 will experience oversupply, price decline, and a turning point in the industry, marking a transition from “shortage” to “surplus”. In 2025, the price of acrylonitrile opened high and fell low, with an annual average price of approximately 8726 yuan/ton at ports in East China, a year-on-year decrease of about 6.84%. In 2025, the newly added production capacity of butadiene (about 980000 tons) far exceeds the downstream demand increment, and the overall price is declining. According to the monitoring of Shengyi Society, the price of butadiene will drop from 10800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 7733 yuan/ton at the end of the year in 2025, with an overall decrease of 28.40%.
In 2025, the nitrile rubber market will show a trend of “rising first, then suppressing, and fluctuating downward”. From January to mid February, raw material prices rose, and cost supported nitrile rubber prices rose to a high point of 17175 yuan/ton this year; From mid February to early May, the high prices of raw materials fell and demand fell short of expectations, causing the price of nitrile rubber to drop to a temporary low of 15912 yuan/ton; Although demand was weak in May, the price of nitrile rubber quickly rebounded to 16850 yuan/ton after hitting bottom, driven by a significant rebound in butadiene prices; From June to early October, on the one hand, nitrile rubber manufacturers carried out maintenance and supply shortages, and on the other hand, the price of raw material butadiene acrylonitrile decreased. The cost of nitrile rubber also decreased, and the price of nitrile rubber narrowly dropped to 16600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.48%; From early October to the end of the year, the maintenance of nitrile rubber plants gradually ended, and the supply rebounded. The traditional off-season demand downstream was weak, and the price of nitrile rubber once again fell to the lowest of 15525 yuan/ton this year. At the end of the year, the overall decline was 6.33% compared to the beginning of the year.
Outlook for the Nitrile Rubber Market in 2026
Adequate supply and slow recovery of demand for nitrile rubber in 2026
At present, there is no news of the production plan for the new nitrile rubber plant in 2026. It is expected that the overall supply of nitrile rubber in China will be stable and sufficient by 2026. The overall recovery of demand for nitrile rubber in 2026 is slow, mainly driven by the construction machinery and automotive industries. In addition, in 2026, the export growth of nitrile rubber is expected to be under pressure due to India’s anti-dumping policies, high base, and trade environment disturbances.

The cost of nitrile rubber may continue to decline in 2026
Due to low crude oil prices, equipment maintenance, and the release of new production capacity, the raw material butadiene is expected to show a trend of first rising and then falling, and an overall downward trend in 2026; On the one hand, acrylonitrile production capacity continues to expand, and on the other hand, downstream ABS expectations are weak, resulting in a fluctuating downward trend in acrylonitrile prices in 2026. The overall cost of nitrile rubber has decreased compared to 2025.
In summary, the nitrile rubber market in 2026 will face the reality of weak costs, abundant supply, and slow demand recovery. Against this backdrop, the price center of nitrile rubber in 2026 will slightly decrease compared to 2025, and the market will mainly fluctuate downwards throughout the year, with prices fluctuating between 13500 and 17000 yuan/ton. The profit margin of enterprises may be squeezed, and industry competition will tend to be more focused on technology and high value-added products.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PP price position was relatively low at the end of December, and the market stopped falling and stabilized. The prices of various brand products rebounded narrowly. As of December 31st, the benchmark price for PP drawing offered by Shengyi Society was 6170.00 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase or decrease of 3.04% in price level.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
The previous OPEC+new round of production increase plan has raised concerns among industry players about an oversupply of crude oil. Recently, due to the drag of demand during holidays, the center of gravity of oil prices has fluctuated after falling. In terms of propylene, it has risen to a temporary high in the middle of the month, and the good news is gradually coming out. In addition, with the recovery of supply strength, the current spot prices have fallen from a low level. Propane continues to be boosted by high external prices, with high port cargo prices and overall strong performance. Overall, the prices of various raw materials for PP have fluctuated, providing moderate support for PP costs.
Supply side:
At the end of December, the restart and maintenance of domestic PP enterprises were generally balanced, and the overall operating rate slightly increased. As of the time of writing, the overall load level of the domestic industry is around 77%, with little difference compared to mid month. The current weekly average total output is over 790000 tons, and the inventory position is around 790000 tons. The on-site supply remains abundant. However, there are multiple maintenance plans announced in January, and there is an expectation of a decrease in production. Overall, the supply side’s support for spot prices has flattened.
In terms of demand:
At the end of the year, domestic economic work conferences released neutral information, but the results did not meet market expectations and did not strongly boost the mentality of industry players. E-commerce has a certain driving force on consumption of packaging, home appliances, etc., but it has limited improvement on the overall trading atmosphere of the industry market. At the same time, the impact of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts is still present, dragging down the export of end products, and the load position of downstream enterprises is not ideal. The current PP terminal enterprise finished product market is generally hot, and raw material digestion is slow. The demand for capital withdrawal at the end of the year has constrained the willingness of end enterprises to build warehouses, and midstream operators have increased their willingness to sell off their stocks. The demand momentum is difficult to support the PP spot price.
Future forecast
At the end of December, the domestic PP market prices were temporarily low, and the market stopped falling and stabilized. Fundamentally speaking, the upstream raw material market is fluctuating, and the overall support for PP is average. High level adjustment of industry load, limited improvement in consumption. Under the large base production capacity, the pattern of loose supply will not change. However, due to the concentrated destocking operations of petrochemical enterprises in the early stage, some buying orders on dips will be stimulated to enter the market. It is expected that the PP market may enter a period of adjustment.

1、 Review of Antimony Ingot Market in 2025
In 2025, the antimony ingot market will exhibit the characteristics of “rising and falling, and fluctuating at a high level” under the triple logic resonance of “supply rigidity+demand expansion+policy regulation”. From a global perspective, the supply and demand gap of antimony will widen to 34000-39000 tons by 2025, reaching a new high in nearly 5 years. The price difference between domestic and foreign antimony ingots has once exceeded 80%, and the domestic antimony ingot price is significantly higher than the international market, highlighting the comprehensive strategic resource attributes.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in 2025, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market first surged significantly, then fluctuated and fell back. The overall market fluctuated and rose throughout the year, with an average price of 140250 yuan/ton on January 1 and 162000 yuan/ton on December 30, a cumulative increase of 15.51%.
Rapid surge from January to March: On January 1st, the average price was 140250 yuan/ton, and in mid March, it surged to about 230000 yuan/ton (an increase of over 64%). In the first quarter, the domestic antimony mining quota tightened, and the import volume declined at the same time. The domestic antimony ingot supply tightened, and the supply side showed strong positive performance. At the same time, the downstream photovoltaic industry’s stocking demand was released. With the joint support of supply and demand, the price of antimony ingots quickly rose.
Fluctuated decline from April to December: Prices gradually declined after March, closing at 162000 yuan/ton at the end of the year, with a decrease of about 30%. The main reason is the phased destocking of photovoltaic glass, weak demand for antimony oxide, lack of demand support, insufficient upward momentum in antimony ingot prices, cooling market sentiment, and a return to supply and demand fundamentals.
From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has been on an overall upward trend for 25 years, with a total of 6 months of upward movement and 6 months of downward movement (a 6.76% drop in December), with the largest increase in March at 44.37% and the largest decrease in June at 13.46%.
K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, in the form of a bar chart, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar represents the range of rise and fall.
2、 Analysis of Factors Influencing the Antimony Ingot Market in 2026:
Supply side: Continuously tight due to multiple constraints
Production: Due to environmental restrictions and depletion of mining resources, China’s antimony ingot production from January to November 2025 will be about 60000 tons, a decrease of about 16% compared to the same period last year. The main production areas of Hunan and Guangxi account for over 70% of the production, and the newly added production capacity will be less than 5000 tons. The domestic antimony mining quota will be reduced by 15% compared to 2024, with 40% of small-scale mines being shut down for environmental protection, and the supply elasticity in the main production areas will decrease. The domestic antimony mining quota for 2026 is expected to continue the tightening trend of 2025, coupled with further increases in environmental compliance costs, making it difficult for small-scale mines to resume production, and limiting the release of production capacity in major production areas (Hunan, Guangxi). It is expected that the domestic production of antimony ingots in the 26th year will be basically the same as in the 25th year, making it difficult to make up for the supply gap through domestic capacity expansion.

Import: Customs statistics show that the import volume of antimony ore and concentrate in China from January to November 2025 was 32655.5 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 33.4%. The highest import volume in January 2025 was 4543 tons, and the lowest import volume in March 2025 was 1483 tons. The overall import volume is lower than the same period last year, and the overall supply of antimony ore in China is still tight. The significant year-on-year contraction in the import volume of concentrate in 2025 has directly strengthened the supply constraints of the domestic antimony ingot market, becoming one of the core factors driving the price surge at the beginning of the year and supporting the central rise of prices throughout the year. However, the fluctuation in import structure has also exacerbated the market’s periodic fluctuations. At present, global antimony ore resources are scarce and the grade continues to decline. China’s main importing countries, such as Russia and Myanmar, have limited capacity release. Russia, as China’s core source of imports, has a certain degree of uncertainty in supply stability, while traditional supplying countries such as Myanmar and Thailand may continue to have low import volumes. It is expected that the import volume of antimony concentrate will not significantly increase by 2026, making it difficult to alleviate the shortage of domestic raw materials.
Demand side: Conventional demand tends to be stable, and photovoltaic performance is impressive
In the traditional downstream demand for antimony, flame retardant materials account for about 47%, lead-acid batteries account for about 13%, polyester catalysis accounts for about 10%, and emerging demand accounts for about 31%. At present, emerging demand has become the core incremental engine driving the growth of antimony demand, among which photovoltaic glass is the absolute mainstay. Antimony, as an essential clarifying agent raw material (sodium pyroantimonate) in photovoltaic glass production, is irreplaceable. In the future, the main increment of antimony metal will appear in the photovoltaic field.
Antimony oxide: In terms of domestic demand, downstream manufacturing industries such as plastic products and rubber are thriving, and the demand for antimony oxide in the flame retardant field is increasing. It is expected that the year-on-year growth of domestic demand for antimony oxide in 2026 will not be too significant, and the overall performance will be relatively stable. In terms of exports: With the gradual recovery of overseas market demand in recent times and the expected marginal adjustment of domestic export control policies, the export volume of antimony oxide is expected to rebound, which can indirectly drive the demand for antimony ingot procurement.
Photovoltaic: With the rapid growth of the domestic photovoltaic industry, the market is also optimistic about the future use of antimony in the photovoltaic industry. At present, the global growth rate of newly installed photovoltaic capacity exceeds 30%, and the penetration rate of double glass modules is over 60%. The production capacity of photovoltaic glass is accelerating, and the proportion of antimony used in the photovoltaic field will rise to over 25%, which will further increase. In the future, the photovoltaic field is expected to become the largest source of demand.
3、 Market forecast for antimony ingots in 2026:
In 2025, the price of 1 # antimony ingots in China will operate within the historical absolute high range, with an average annual price of 180000 to 190000 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of over 90%; It climbed to a historical peak of 24000-265000 yuan/ton around April, and fell back to 160000 to 170000 yuan/ton at the end of the year due to the temporary weakening of demand, still significantly higher than the historical cycle price.

In 2026, Business Society predicts that the antimony ingot market will show a short-term upward trend and a long-term central upward trend. The core of the upward trend is the rigid contraction of the supply side and the continuous expansion of emerging demand. The supply-demand gap will further widen, and prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall. The domestic mining quota on the supply side continues to tighten, and the release of production capacity in the main production areas of Hunan and Guangxi is restricted; The total import volume of antimony concentrate is difficult to increase, and it is difficult to alleviate the shortage of raw materials in the short term; The concentrated release of stocking demand from demand side photovoltaic glass enterprises, coupled with the repair of antimony oxide exports, has driven the procurement of antimony ingots and increased downstream willingness to replenish inventory.
In the short term, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches from January to March, the release of downstream market stocking demand will bring about a wave of upward trend. Driven by the peak demand for photovoltaics from April to June, market prices will maintain a high and fluctuating trend.
In the long run, the global antimony resource grade is declining and production capacity growth is weak; Emerging demands such as photovoltaics and semiconductors continue to expand, and the supply-demand gap is widening year by year. Scarcity and strategic attributes will drive prices into a long-term upward channel, especially the proportion of high-purity antimony demand will increase, and the antimony ingot market will continue to operate strongly.