price trend
The price center of mainstream production areas is slowly shifting downwards. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 16th, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong region was reported at 1026 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.08% from the beginning of the month.
Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
The core contradiction in the current market is that “costs are supported, but demand lags behind”, resulting in a double squeeze on prices and profits.
1. Loose supply
The overall operating rate of the industry is not high, but due to weaker demand, the market’s spot supply is still sufficient.
2. Weak demand (core drag)
Dragging on the board industry: The downstream artificial board industry, which is the largest source of formaldehyde, continues to experience a contraction in demand due to factors such as high real estate and raw material costs, as well as intense industry competition, resulting in rigid procurement of formaldehyde. Other downstream self use is the main focus: fine chemical downstream industries such as formaldehyde and Urotropin have poor profits and mainly rely on digesting supporting formaldehyde, resulting in low demand for external purchases.
3. Poor cost transmission
The expected decrease in the import volume of raw material methanol, coupled with significant destocking at ports, has driven up methanol prices. As of January 16th, the benchmark price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2250.83 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.96% from the beginning of the month. But it is difficult to effectively transmit to the selling price of formaldehyde, and downstream acceptance is poor. In order to control inventory, factories can only sell at a discounted price.
short-term outlook
In the short term, the formaldehyde market is expected to continue the pattern of “weak stability stalemate”. The rise in costs supports downward space, but weak demand and inventory pressure from factories further suppress any potential for an increase. Whether the market can break the deadlock depends on whether the downstream sheet metal industry’s production and stocking situation has improved beyond expectations.

This week (2026.01.12-01.16), the spot price of polyester bottle chips showed an initial increase followed by a decrease, with a decline within the week; According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 16th, the average sales price in East China was 6100 yuan/ton.
Reasons for price changes
Cost side (dominant): At the beginning of the week, due to the strong situation in the Middle East, crude oil drove PTA and MEG up, supporting bottle prices; On Thursday, the situation in Iran eased, Venezuela’s supply expectations increased, crude oil fell, PTA fell 33% to 5047, cost support weakened, and bottle flakes fell along. The aggregation cost is about 5592 yuan/ton, and the cost side has a high weight on the price impact.
Supply side: Weekly output of 334700 tons, slightly lower than the previous month; The capacity utilization rate was 72.27%, a decrease of 1.01 compared to the previous period; Partial equipment maintenance (such as Jiangyin’s 1.2 million ton equipment being shut down from mid January to March) has led to a shortage of spot goods in some areas, suppressing the decline.
On the demand side: downstream soft drink production accounts for 65-75%, oil factories account for 57%, and PET sheets account for 60%, all at a low level; Before the Spring Festival, there is a strong need to replenish inventory, with no centralized stocking, weak willingness to chase price increases, and weak transactions, which restricts price increases.
Industry pattern: By 2025, production capacity will increase by 11.2% to 22.28 million tons, with fierce competition, difficult to increase processing costs, and prices easily fluctuating with costs.
Future forecast
Business Society believes that short-term bottle tablet prices fluctuate with weak raw materials, with a reference range of 5900-6200 yuan/ton; Pay attention to the trends of crude oil and PTA, equipment maintenance progress, and downstream stocking rhythm.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 6410 yuan/ton on January 1st and 6890 yuan/ton on January 15th, an increase of 7.49%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 8400 yuan/ton on January 1st and 9283 yuan/ton on January 15th, an increase of 10.52%. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 6862 yuan/ton on January 1st and 7300 yuan/ton on January 15th, an increase of 6.38%.
At the beginning of 2026, polyethylene showed a strong upward trend, led by LDPE due to high import dependence. The main factors are the rise in crude oil costs due to Iran’s geopolitical risks, tightening expectations for imported high-pressure materials supply, and limited support from supply and demand fundamentals.
Cost side: The situation in Iran has raised concerns about crude oil supply, causing a significant increase in crude oil prices. Cost side support for polyethylene is strong.
Supply side: The expectation of polyethylene plant shutdown and maintenance is relatively strong, and the pace of new production capacity deployment has slowed down, resulting in a slight contraction in the supply side. Although the early maintenance equipment has gradually recovered, the overall operating rate is still relatively low, alleviating the pressure of oversupply. LDPE has a high dependence on imports, and tight shipping and delivery expectations have pushed up the price of high-pressure materials.
On the demand side: Agricultural film is in the off-season of demand, and packaging film is mainly replenished for urgent needs, leading to an increase in resistance to high prices. The demand for replenishing inventory before the Spring Festival is temporarily supported, but factories will gradually shut down from the end of January to early February, and the demand will further weaken.
On the futures side, the main contract for continuous plastic trading fluctuated and climbed, closing at about 6766 yuan/ton on January 14th, forming a positive driving force for polyethylene spot trading.
Driven by cost support and the strengthening of futures, the high volatility of spot prices is supported, but downstream resistance to high prices and slower trading limit upward space. It is expected that polyethylene will fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and the upward trend will slow down.

This week, the focus of the domestic acetone market shifted upwards, breaking away from the previous weak and volatile pattern. According to monitoring data from Business Society, market prices slightly increased on January 13th compared to last week. The mainstream price in East China climbed from around 4100 yuan/ton on January 7th to 4350 yuan/ton on January 13th, an increase of 6.10% compared to last week, ending the downward trend since 2025 and improving the trading atmosphere.
Trend chart of acetone prices in the East China market
Marginal improvement on the demand side provides impetus. The demand for terminal replenishment and trader stocking will continue to be released, and the growth of demand in emerging green fields will become a new increment – the accelerated penetration of bio based acetone glycerol in water-based polyurethane coatings and other fields; In addition, the operating rates of downstream industries such as MIBK and MMA have slightly increased, and the increase in demand has boosted trading activity.
Cost side support. The core raw materials for acetone, propylene and pure benzene, have stabilized narrowly this week, easing the pressure of weakened cost support. As key raw materials for the production of isopropylbenzene, the stabilization of their prices has reduced the cost pressure on enterprises and increased the willingness of non integrated enterprises to start production; Combined with the resource integration and efficiency improvement of domestic integrated refining and chemical enterprises, the stable supply of raw materials further enhances market confidence.
The potential contraction expectation on the supply side has boosted market sentiment. Although the total domestic production capacity is high, some phenol ketone units have undergone short-term maintenance recently, resulting in a moderate industry operating rate and alleviating the pressure of oversupply; By the end of 2025, imported cargo at the port will gradually be digested, port inventory will be reduced, and coupled with traders’ reluctance to sell at low levels, the tight supply of circulating goods will drive up the quotation.
From the perspective of Business Society, whether the acetone market can continue to rise still depends on multiple factors: the cost side needs to track the price trends of propylene and pure benzene; The development of new industries on the demand side is worth paying attention to, but there is still uncertainty in the increase of traditional downstream operating rates; The restart progress of the supply side maintenance equipment and the arrival of imported cargo at the port affect the supply-demand balance. The short-term market may experience strong fluctuations, but in the long run, it depends on fundamental improvements in the supply and demand pattern.

Recently, the East China propylene market has shown a clear upward trend after the New Year’s Day holiday. After a brief adjustment in market prices, driven by favorable supply and demand fundamentals, the focus of transactions has steadily shifted upwards. As of January 12th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 5871.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.68% compared to the beginning of this month (5717.67 yuan/ton).
The mainstream market prices have shown a significant rebound compared to before the holiday. The current upward trend is mainly due to sustained cost pressure, positive news on the supply side, and phased promotion of post holiday replenishment demand. The spot market is showing a tightening trend, and there may still be some upward space for prices in the short term.
1、 Market situation: The price center of gravity has shifted upwards, and regional price differences are significant
Currently, the overall atmosphere in the East China propylene market is relatively strong. Specifically, the listing price of Sinopec East China Company has remained stable at 5950 yuan/ton, becoming an important reference for the market. In terms of actual transactions, there is a certain price difference between regions: the delivery price in Jiangsu region is relatively high, with a reference range of around 6200-6250 yuan/ton; However, the container prices in Zhejiang region are relatively lower, with a reference range of around 5950-6000 yuan/ton. The price difference in this region reflects the degree of local supply and demand tightness and the difference in logistics costs. Overall, the acceptance of current prices by market buying is acceptable, and trading activities are mainly focused on rigid demand and cautious replenishment.
2、 The core driving force behind the rise: the trio of cost, supply, and demand
The current price increase is not caused by a single factor, but rather the result of a resonance between cost, supply, and demand.
Cost side:
Form a solid bottom support. The price of the main raw material methanol continues to rise. As of January 12th, the benchmark price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2265.83 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.64% compared to the beginning of this month (2207.50 yuan/ton). The theoretical profit of the process route for methanol to propylene has fallen into deep losses, and the extent of the losses is still expanding.
The high production costs greatly enhance the willingness of production enterprises to raise prices, providing a solid bottom support for the market. At the same time, as a barometer, the continuous upward trend of propylene market prices in Shandong has also had a positive impact on the mentality of participants in the East China market, forming a regional linkage upward trend.
Supply side:
Presenting a tight balance pattern is the key to driving up prices. Recently, the market supply has been squeezed by both fluctuations in domestic equipment and a reduction in imported goods.
Domestically, there has been a significant contraction in the supply of goods within the region.
In terms of imports, due to the reduction in upstream equipment production in Japan and South Korea, the supply of propylene to ports in East China has also decreased. The simultaneous tightening of internal and external supply has strengthened the market’s expectation of future tight supply, leading to strong reluctance among holders to sell and further exacerbating the tense atmosphere in the spot market.
Demand side:
Provide phased assistance. There is a customary demand for replenishing inventory in downstream factories after the holiday, which has brought considerable procurement growth to the market. At the same time, the prices of major downstream products such as polypropylene, n-butanol, and octanol have also rebounded, which has improved the profitability of downstream industries to a certain extent, thereby increasing their tolerance and acceptance of the rise in raw material propylene prices, making the cost transmission process relatively smooth in the short term.

On January 12th, the benchmark price of PP (wire drawing) in Shengyi Society was 6376.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.35% compared to the beginning of this month (6170.00 yuan/ton).
On January 12th, the benchmark price of n-butanol (industrial grade) in Shengyi Society was 5773.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.49% compared to the beginning of this month (5633.33 yuan/ton).
On January 12th, the benchmark price of isooctanol in Shengyi Society was 6983.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.96% compared to the beginning of this month (6916.67 yuan/ton).
3、 Outlook for the future: support and pressure coexist, upward space and risks coexist
Looking ahead to the short-term market, propylene prices are expected to maintain a strong consolidation, but the upward potential is also constrained.
The support mainly comes from the tight supply of spot goods, which is difficult to alleviate in the short term, concentrated equipment maintenance, limited imports, coupled with a high cost line to support the bottom, and the existence of an upward trend in prices.
However, upward pressure is also accumulating. One is that high prices may erode downstream profits. If the main downstream falls into losses, it will trigger resistance and slow down procurement, thereby suppressing the upward trend. Secondly, cost support may weaken, and international crude oil is facing expectations of oversupply. If the prices of raw materials such as propane decline, the support logic will loosen.
Overall, tight costs and supply continue to dominate the market in the near future, but price increases will gradually trigger negative feedback from the demand side. The subsequent space and sustainability will highly depend on the follow-up of downstream profit changes and actual purchasing power. Close attention should be paid to key indicators such as device dynamics, downstream operations, and profits.