On April 27th, the price of isooctanol was 8933.33 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 3.60% compared to 9233.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month. The cumulative increase from 6700 yuan/ton at the beginning of March still reached 36.32%, and it is in the warning range of over inflation within one year. In April, the isooctanol market showed an overall pattern of “high volatility, first strong and then weak”. At the beginning of the month, it continued to rise strongly to the peak of the year in March, and then gradually retreated due to the impact of cost decline and supply-demand stalemate. The price fluctuated around the range of 9000-9500 yuan/ton throughout the month, and remained at the high level of the year as a whole. The core was dominated by the linkage between crude oil and propylene and changes in the supply and demand pattern. At the same time, starting from mid April, the average price of Shengyi Society moved downward, and the isooctanol market showed a clear downward trend.
Cost side: crude oil+propylene linkage, support first strong and then weak
4.1-4.7: The futures price of propylene is running at a high level. On April 7th, the main closing price of propylene reached 9447 yuan/ton. Coupled with the support of geopolitical factors in the previous crude oil price, the strong cost support of isooctanol pushed the price higher. With the implementation of the US Iran ceasefire agreement, crude oil prices plummeted and propylene prices simultaneously retreated. On April 27th, the main closing price of propylene dropped to 8360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.51% from April 7th. The cost support for isooctanol weakened, and prices were under pressure and retreated. In addition, the propylene to isooctanol ratio index remained high, further increasing the downward pressure on isooctanol.
Isooctanol supply and demand are both weak
In April, isooctanol enterprises continued to operate at a high level, and the operating load of isooctanol enterprises decreased. At the end of the month, the operating rate dropped to about 80%, and the supply of isooctanol decreased. Downstream procurement is mainly based on essential needs. In April, the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises decreased, and the operating load of DOP decreased from 66% in March to 55% in April, resulting in a decrease in operating capacity. The demand for isooctanol by plasticizers decreased, and the upward momentum of isooctanol weakened. The supply and demand of isooctanol are both weak.
Future prospects
On the cost side, crude oil prices are unlikely to rebound significantly due to the impact of the US Iran ceasefire, propylene prices are likely to remain volatile, and the cost support for isooctanol continues to weaken; On the supply and demand side, the production of isooctanol and plasticizer enterprises has both decreased, and the supply and demand are weak, making it difficult to support price increases. Overall, with cost reduction and weak supply and demand, it is expected that the price of isooctanol will fluctuate slightly in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from April 20th to 24th, the domestic aggregated MDI market prices fell weakly, with an average price of 19600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 19066 yuan/ton on April 24th, a decrease of 2.72% during the week and a year-on-year increase of 27.54%. During the week, major factories experienced a tight supply of goods, but the export market remained strong. Downstream demand has entered the market, with a majority of small transactions, and traders are lowering prices to sell their goods.
Supply side: On April 20th, some MDI units of BASF Shanghai were shut down for maintenance, with a duration of about 1-2 weeks. The MDI plant in Jinhu, South Korea (200000 tons/year) has a routine maintenance plan starting from early April, with a duration of about one month.
On the cost side: During the week, the price of pure benzene fluctuated upwards, downstream entered the market at a low price, pure benzene production was low, and maintenance was further intensified. Prices decreased, buying gas increased, and demand increased. The factory has raised prices, and demand has been suppressed. Recently, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain, and the pure benzene market is expected to operate strongly in the short term.
Demand side: Downstream demand is weak, with fewer inquiries and pressure from intermediaries on their shipments, resulting in price reductions.
Future forecast: The current aggregated MDI market is under downward pressure, but rigid support on the cost side still exists. It is expected that the aggregated MDI market will experience a narrow range of fluctuations in the short term.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has declined this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price was 55200 yuan/ton. On April 23rd, the average market price was 41400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25% and an increase of 25.45% compared to the same period last year. On April 22, the Business Society Bromine Index was 179.30, a decrease of 6.66 points from yesterday, a decrease of 27.21% from the highest point of 246.32 points during the cycle (2026-04-07), and an increase of 204.31% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
This week, the price quotation of bromine in Shandong region is relatively chaotic, but overall it is running weakly. The price of bromine in the Shandong market has fallen, with reference prices for manufacturers ranging from 35000 to 42000 yuan/ton. The quotes from manufacturers have also declined, creating a strong bearish atmosphere. The operating rate of the supply industry is steadily increasing, and spot inventory is slowly being replenished. In terms of demand: The downstream industry has average demand and continues to require essential procurement. Downstream enterprises have average purchasing enthusiasm and generally wait for prices to stabilize before making purchases.
In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have been overall consolidating this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 5950 yuan/ton, and on April 22, the average market price was 6000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.84% and a year-on-year increase of 179.81%. Downstream demand is still acceptable.
Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain weak in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to consolidate. Bromine supply is slowly recovering in the near future, and downstream buyers are mostly purchasing on demand, with a wait-and-see attitude towards bromine. The overall supply-demand game predicts that bromine will continue to operate weakly in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to data from Shengyishe Spot News, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 8580 yuan/ton on April 15th and 8283 yuan/ton on April 21st, a decrease of 3.46%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 11700 yuan/ton on April 15th and 11350 yuan/ton on April 21st, a decrease of 2.99%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on April 15th was 10412 yuan/ton, and on April 21st it was 10232 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.73%.
The peak season for spring plowing of plastic film in mid to late April has basically ended, and the operating rate of agricultural film factories has fallen, with weak support for basic needs. Downstream industries such as packaging, injection molding, and pipe materials generally have light orders: downstream factories have no intention of replenishing inventory, and traders sell goods at low prices to recoup funds, directly driving prices to accelerate downward.
Maintenance support is weakening: on the one hand, the market has already anticipated the expected restart of the equipment in May, and the current positive effect of maintenance is weakening; On the other hand, the continuous accumulation of inventory in enterprises indicates that the reduction in supply cannot keep up with the speed of demand decline, and the contradiction between supply and demand continues to expand, putting pressure on prices.
In recent times, the situation in the Middle East has been volatile, with oil prices showing sharp fluctuations, unstable cost support, and insufficient market sentiment.
In the short term, it is expected that polyethylene will continue to fluctuate weakly and be prone to decline but difficult to rise.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, lithium carbonate has recently opened an upward channel. As of April 21, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s battery grade lithium carbonate is 170000 yuan/ton, up 13.33% month on month and 143% year-on-year. This round of price increases is not driven by a single factor, but by the contraction expectations caused by multiple disturbances on the supply side, and the positive support formed by the continuous recovery of the demand side. The resonance between the two is an inevitable result, and the industry’s supply and demand pattern is gradually evolving towards a tighter direction, providing a solid foundation for price increases.
Supply side: Multiple potential risks overlap, continuously strengthening market expectations of supply contraction
Zimbabwe: The export ban that lasted for nearly two months has led to a delay in supply. Although several domestic companies have obtained 6-month export quota approvals issued by the country since mid April, the resumption of exports is not achieved overnight. Companies still need to complete a series of export procedures, and the backlog of lithium concentrate cannot be shipped at once. The market expects that the large-scale arrival of lithium concentrate at the port will be delayed until after July. In this context, market concerns about the tight supply of lithium mines in May and June continue to rise, and the act of reserving lithium mines in advance further exacerbates the short-term circulation tension, leading to a decrease in port lithium concentrate inventory and lower processing fees for spodumene lithium extraction.
Australia: Recently, one of the only two refineries in Victoria, Australia, caught fire. Although it did not directly affect diesel production, concerns about the shortage of diesel supply in Australia continue to escalate in the context of unstable global energy supply chains. Diesel, as a key energy source in lithium mining and transportation, its supply shortage may directly affect local lithium mining production and operation. Although there is currently no clear news of lithium mining project adjustment and operation, this potential supply contraction expectation has continued to strengthen. The subsequent passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the progress of replenishing Australian diesel inventories will become key variables affecting overseas lithium mining supply.
Domestically, the structural contraction of lithium ore supply has further amplified the tense situation on the supply side. As the core production area of lithium mica ore in China, Yichun, Jiangxi Province, has a profound impact on domestic supply due to changes in production capacity. At present, several lithium mica mines in Yichun area are in a state of shutdown, and four more mines are expected to enter the stage of shutdown and license renewal in May. In the second half of the year, there may be seven more mines facing shutdown, and the follow-up production cycle after the shutdown will last for more than a year. This structural contraction is due to the increase in environmental compliance requirements and the pressure of cost inversion. With lithium being identified as a strategic independent mineral, local mines need to complete the certification approval for the main mineral. Coupled with the significant increase in tailings processing costs, the survival pressure on small and medium-sized mines has intensified, further tightening the domestic supply of lithium mines and becoming an important factor supporting the price of lithium carbonate.
Demand side: Continuous recovery

The pattern of “dual wheel drive” between power batteries and energy storage batteries is becoming increasingly clear, and demand resilience continues to be highlighted. In the field of power batteries, despite a year-on-year decline in domestic sales of new energy vehicles in the first quarter, the significant increase in single vehicle charge has driven the production of power cells to maintain high-speed growth. The year-on-year increase in power cell production in the first quarter was nearly 40%, reflecting the inherent resilience of power battery demand. At the same time, the energy storage industry has experienced explosive growth, with the production of energy storage cells increasing by over 90% year-on-year in the first quarter, and the winning capacity scale increasing by 168% year-on-year. The proportion of energy storage cell production continues to increase, becoming an important increment in lithium demand growth. On this basis, institutions are optimistic about the future battery production schedule, with a month on month growth trend in April and May. The continued upward revision of demand expectations further strengthens the upward momentum of lithium carbonate prices.
Overall, the current upward trend in lithium carbonate prices is the result of the resonance between the contraction expectations caused by multiple disturbances on the supply side and the sustained recovery on the demand side. In the short term, the uncertainty on the supply side will continue, and the trends of domestic mines in Jiangxi, the export progress of lithium concentrate from Zimbabwe overseas, and the energy supply situation in Australia will continue to affect price trends; On the demand side, it is expected to remain strong, and the dual demand support of power batteries and energy storage batteries will further strengthen the price bottom support. However, it should be noted that the current fluctuation range of lithium carbonate prices has converged, and the future price trend still needs to focus on the progress of mining resumption in Jiangxi, the degree of demand fulfillment, as well as the potential impact of global macro environment and supply chain changes. Overall, the tight supply-demand balance pattern in the lithium carbonate market is expected to continue in the second quarter, and prices are likely to remain high.