The market price of epichlorohydrin has risen this week. According to the monitoring and analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 21st, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 11300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.88% compared to early August.
Price influencing factors:
Raw material side: This week, the price of raw material propylene has fallen slightly, while the price of glycerol remains high and firm. Overall, the cost side is still under high pressure, and coupled with the decrease in spot supply inventory, the price of epichlorohydrin continues to rise. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 21st, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6548.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.79% compared to the beginning of this month (6433.25 yuan/ton).
Demand side: The downstream epoxy resin market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, with a focus on small orders for essential needs. At present, the capacity utilization rate of the epoxy resin market is about 50%, and the supply is relatively loose. Some downstream enterprises have tentatively raised prices, but due to weak terminal demand and a cold trading atmosphere, there are very few actual orders. Overall, the demand side has limited support for the epoxy chloropropane market.
Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the prices of glycerol and propylene on the cost side are consolidating at a high level, and spot inventory in the market is decreasing. Epoxy chloropropane manufacturers are optimistic and have a positive upward trend. It is expected that the epoxy chloropropane market will operate steadily and strongly in the near future, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in raw material prices and market supply and demand.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the hydrogen peroxide market has experienced an upward trend and fluctuated upwards since August 4th. On August 4th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 690 yuan/ton, and on August 20th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 700 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.45%.
Positive news leads to a rise in the hydrogen peroxide market
Since August 4th, there has been an increase in terminal demand in the printing and papermaking industries. Some manufacturers of hydrogen peroxide have stopped for maintenance, easing supply pressure and leading to a rise in hydrogen peroxide prices. As of August 20th, the average price in the domestic market has risen to around 700 yuan/ton. Market transactions have improved, and the market is heating up.
The hydrogen peroxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that at the end of August, the demand for terminal printing and papermaking industry will support the tight supply of hydrogen peroxide, and the future market trend is expected to r

ise.

According to the price data from Shengyi Society, as of August 19th, the average selling price of PET is 6000 yuan/ton, indicating an increase in price. Crude oil fell over the weekend, but rebounded slightly on Monday. Geopolitical risks (the US Russia meeting did not reach an agreement) pushed Brent crude oil up 0.06% to $66.63 per barrel, but limited transmission to polyester costs. However, as costs rose in the afternoon and the market atmosphere improved, traders pushed prices higher and PET market prices rose accordingly.
The bottle tablet industry will be in a period of concentrated production capacity from the second half of 2023, with relatively loose supply expectations. However, since July, there has been a concentrated production reduction in the bottle chip industry. In August, the main polyester bottle chip factories continued to maintain a production reduction of 20% or more, which started in July. This has eased inventory pressure, and some specifications are tight, providing some support for prices.
Downstream demand has shown a flat performance, affected by the continuous decline in raw materials and the depreciation of inventory in the early stage. The atmosphere for new weaving orders has not improved significantly, and buyers are still holding a wait-and-see attitude. Downstream demand is mostly for essential purchases, which has limited driving effect on the price of polyester bottle chips.
Business Society believes that the short-term price range is between 5900-6050 yuan/ton. If crude oil rebounds and PTA production rate further decreases, it may test 6100 yuan/ton; If demand remains weak or exports are hindered, or if the support level of 5850 yuan/ton is lowered.

In mid August, the overall ABS market continued to trend weakly, with some grades experiencing a decline in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 18th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10220 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -0.90% compared to early August.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: Since August, the domestic ABS industry has seen an increase in load before leveling off. Recently, the device dynamics have been limited, and the overall industry load level has remained at 71% of the first ten days, with the supply side continuing to be loose. The average weekly output remains stable at around 140000 tons, while the inventory level of aggregation enterprises at 220000 tons is also at a high level, and the on-site supply remains abundant. Overall, the long-term loose supply pattern in the ABS market remains unchanged, and the high inventory levels in the industry are temporarily controllable. However, some companies may experience an increase in load in the future. Overall, the supply side has weak support for ABS spot prices.
Cost factor: In mid August, the overall ABS upstream three material market experienced two declines and one oscillation, which had a slightly negative impact on the cost side support of ABS. Although the capacity utilization rate of the acrylonitrile industry in the interval has decreased, the overall supply is still abundant, and Jilin Chemical has launched new production capacity. In terms of cost support, it is not as strong as the insufficient purchasing power of spot goods, and at the same time, there is significant pressure on local inventory. Under the game of supply, demand, and cost, the short-term market amplitude is relatively narrow and the weakness continues.
The domestic butadiene market fluctuated and consolidated in mid August. Last weekend, boosted by the rise in downstream markets and combined with the maintenance of Fushun Petrochemical facilities, the atmosphere in the spot market began to improve. However, the recent arrival of goods at the port is relatively abundant, and the supply side is favorable with discounts. The downstream rubber market has shown signs of recovery, providing some support to the market, but overall maintaining essential procurement. Overall, there is limited positive news for the butadiene market in terms of supply and demand, and it is expected that the market will mainly fluctuate within a certain range in the future.
Styrene has recently entered a downward trend again. The supply of raw material pure benzene has tightened, and Sinopec’s refineries in East and South China have increased their prices. But there is insufficient market follow-up, and the overall trading atmosphere is somewhat stagnant. Recently, styrene production has restarted in both South and North China, with an increase in output from newly added facilities in Shandong, resulting in an overall increase in production. The main downstream three S projects are operating at a low level this year, with weak demand. The fundamental driving force of the current styrene market is limited, and it is expected that the styrene market will remain weak in the short term.
On the demand side: In the medium to long term, the downstream factories of ABS have had average loads. The current market is in the traditional off-season range, and terminal enterprises maintain a strong demand for supplementary orders. In mid August, the production schedule of the electrical casing industry further decreased, and consumption shrank. Without significant changes on a macro level, the cautious atmosphere in the external market remains unchanged, and the flow rate of goods is slow. Domestic inventory levels remain high and sideways, with continued loose supply and ample room for on-site turnover. Overall, there has been no improvement in the demand side’s support for the ABS market.
Future forecast
In mid August, the domestic ABS market was weak and consolidated. Upstream three materials fell and fluctuated, ABS polymerization plant production load remained flat, and the demand side was at a low season level. Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the long-term drag on spot prices of ABS due to supply and demand contradictions makes it difficult for the market momentum to improve. It is expected that the ABS market will maintain a weak and stable consolidation trend in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price center of polyester filament has been partially raised. As of August 15th, the POY (150D/48F) quotation of mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is between 6600-6900 yuan/ton, the DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) quotation of polyester is between 7800-8050 yuan/ton, and the FDY (150D/96F) quotation of polyester is between 7000-7200 yuan/ton.
In terms of cost, on August 15th, international crude oil futures rose by 1.77% (WTI $63.96/barrel, Brent $66.84/barrel), and PX (p-xylene) prices rose synchronously to $833.67/ton. Costs were transmitted to PTA (polyester raw materials), and PTA futures settlement prices rose by 0.6% to 4708 yuan/ton, boosting confidence with the rebound of crude oil. PTA processing fees have been expanded to over 200 yuan/ton, while FDY’s cash flow losses still reach -487 yuan/ton. Manufacturers have raised prices to restore profit margins.
In terms of supply and demand, polyester factories maintain a high operating rate of over 90%, but leading enterprises regulate the market through centralized production cuts (such as FDY capacity utilization being lower than the industry average), coupled with limited new capacity added in August, temporarily easing supply pressure. Terminal textile orders have not yet substantially rebounded, with weaving enterprises holding 36.8 days of raw fabric inventory, and procurement mainly focused on essential needs. In mid to late August, the traditional off-season comes to an end, and the strength of demand recovery needs to be observed in the launch of “Golden September and Silver October” orders. The psychology of buying up rather than buying down dominates, and manufacturers create expectations of price increases by continuously raising prices, forcing downstream customers to passively purchase goods.
Business Society believes that the market is in a game of weak reality and strong expectations, and is expected to operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend. The volatility of crude oil is expected to narrow (Brent $66.59/barrel), and the impact on the cost side is expected to weaken; If the downstream “Golden September and Silver October” stocking is launched, polyester prices may slightly rise, but in the short term, the upward space is limited.