Recently, the propylene glycol market in Shandong region has entered a new stage of the game of “strong support weakening and weak demand highlighting”. The market price center of gravity has loosened, and market sentiment has shifted from cautious observation to bearish sentiment. Production enterprises have actively adjusted prices, and the market center of gravity has shifted downwards.
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 18th, the average production price of propylene glycol in Shandong Province was 6050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.36% from early December and at a historical low. The trading atmosphere was light, and there was room for negotiation in actual orders.
Supply side: shifting from “structural tightness” to “expected looseness”
The market supply pattern is undergoing a dynamic transformation. At the end of November, several parking facilities in Shandong, including Lihua Yi and Tongling, were restarted one after another, bringing actual supply increases. Coupled with the expected release of new production capacity in Fujian and other regions, the market mentality was continuously suppressed, resulting in a weakening of the willingness of holders to raise prices.
Demand side: Weak domestic demand and weak support
Downstream industries are facing dual pressures of capital recovery and shrinking orders at the end of the year, unable to provide upward momentum for the propylene glycol market.
Unsaturated resin (UPR): As the largest consumer sector of propylene glycol (accounting for over 50%), its industry performance can be described as sluggish. In the first half of December, the capacity utilization rate of the unsaturated resin industry was only 35%, which was at a low level. Insufficient orders in the fields of terminal construction, composite materials, etc. have resulted in resin factories only maintaining a minimum level of essential procurement of raw material propylene glycol, making it difficult to form effective driving forces.
Polyether polyols: Another major downstream sector has also shown lackluster performance, with a capacity utilization rate of about 58% and poor follow-up on new orders. The consumption of propylene glycol is stable but lacks growth points.
On the cost side of raw materials: the support of epoxy propane (PO) is wavering
The price trend of raw material propylene oxide (PO) is the key factor affecting the cost of propylene glycol. In the first half of December, the PO market ended its previous period of sustained strength. Although the shutdown of facilities in Shandong once provided emotional support, the sluggish downstream demand for polyether hindered the rise of PO prices, leading to a stalemate or even weak consolidation. This has substantially loosened the production cost support for propylene glycol, providing space for manufacturers to lower their quotes, and shifting the cost driven logic from “strong support” to “neutral bearish”.
Market outlook: weak consolidation, bottoming out and oscillation
In the second half of December, market dominance will be fully in the hands of the demand side. Cost pressure fluctuates, making it difficult to form an effective boost. Under the expectation of loose supply, the bearish sentiment in the market has intensified. In the absence of positive stimuli, the market is likely to maintain a low level of operation, and it is expected that the market will gradually explore new price bottoms through a combination of bearish and volatile trends. The stabilization and rebound of the market may need to wait until January 2026 to observe the downstream stocking pace and supply side equipment situation before the Spring Festival.

On December 17th, the diethylene glycol market closed slightly higher, with spot prices in East China closing at 3020 yuan/ton,+5 yuan/ton; South China closed at 3245 yuan/ton, temporarily stable.
fundamental analysis
Supply: During this period (December 16-22), Zhangjiagang is expected to receive 20830 tons of ships, including one domestically produced ship, and there will be a significant increase in both the number of single ships and the number of ships during the period, leading to a noticeable increase in inventory pressure. As of December 16th, Fubao’s inventory is 8500 tons, and Changjiang International releases its inventory every Monday.
Demand: There has been no improvement in terminal demand, with an average of 36% of unsaturated resin factories operating domestically, a decrease of 1% from last week, putting pressure on traders to ship. On December 16th, the total shipment of ethylene glycol from Zhangjiagang’s two storage areas was 1302 tons, an increase of 44 tons compared to the previous day.
Cost: Market concerns about long-term oversupply have only increased, coupled with positive signals from the Russia Ukraine peace talks, international oil prices have fallen to their lowest level since early February 2021, and cost support has weakened.
Market expectation: International crude oil is running weakly, the market is returning to a downward trend to build a bottom, domestic imports are taking turns to replenish the supply side, the demand side is seeking stability, the market lacks adjustment opportunities, the mentality of industry players continues to be weak, and the emotional level is compounded by negative fundamental structure, making it difficult for diethylene glycol to break free from the bottom.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 16, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 5650 yuan/ton. Compared with December 11 (reference price of n-butanol is 5783 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 133 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.31%.
This week, the market for n-butanol in Shandong has fallen from a high level and is currently operating
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that as we enter this week (12.13-12.16), the overall n-butanol market in Shandong, China, shows a weak downward trend. During the week, some n-butanol factories in Shandong have successively lowered their n-butanol shipment prices, with a reduction of about 100-200 yuan/ton. As of December 16th, the reference price for n-butanol in the domestic Shandong region is around 5450-5800 yuan/ton.
Analysis of Market Factors
In terms of demand: As we enter this week, there are signs of gradually weakening downstream demand for n-butanol. Downstream users are mainly digesting early raw materials, and their purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. New order transactions are cautious, and inquiries are mostly maintained at the low end, resulting in loose support on the overall demand side.
On the supply side: Currently, the transmission of n-butanol supply is average, and the on-site inquiry atmosphere is relatively weak. Some factories still have reserved orders, and the overall supply pressure is still controllable. However, the market support for n-butanol has weakened compared to the previous period.
Future forecast
At present, the performance of Shandong n-butanol market is light, with a low trading focus on the market. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the market situation of Shandong n-butanol will be weak and stable, and specific changes in supply and demand need to be closely monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market fluctuated slightly from December 1 to December 15, 2025. On December 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 5330 yuan/ton, and on December 15th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.5%. The domestic toluene market has fluctuated and fallen in this cycle. There is not much change in the supply side, and the overall supply is relatively stable. The demand side still needs to replenish inventory according to demand, and the demand for oil and chemical industries is stable. The aromatic hydrocarbon market has recently weakened, and the spot market has been under pressure with a narrow range of downward fluctuations. Last weekend, spot prices in Shandong region experienced a slight fluctuation and fell, and the market atmosphere was relatively weak.
Cost wise: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 12th, the settlement price of the January WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $57.44 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February is $61.12 per barrel. The crude oil price market first fell and then rose in this cycle. At the beginning of this cycle, the regional situation eased slightly, and coupled with the weakening of US demand, the US tariff issue dragged down global economic and demand expectations, resulting in a low international oil price market. In the later stage, OPEC+oil producing countries postponed production increases, and the geopolitical peace agreement was unlikely to be reached. Geopolitical factors led to an upward trend in crude oil prices.
Supply side:
Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of December 12th, East China Company quoted 5250 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5150-5200 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5300-5400 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5250 yuan/ton.
Demand side:
On December 15th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price of 7200 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units are operating stably and sales are normal. As of December 12th, the closing prices of the para xylene market in Asia were 805-807 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 830-832 US dollars/ton CFR China.
Market forecast: The overall pressure on the supply side of the toluene market is controllable, but there was a slight fluctuation and decline in spot prices in Shandong over the weekend. Coupled with the lack of substantial bullish factors in the intraday market, the trading atmosphere in the market tends to be cautious. Overall, the prices of toluene and xylene are likely to be under pressure in the short term, but their downward potential is expected to be limited by the support of costs.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market experienced slight fluctuations and a downward trend in December. As of December 14th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4639 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.35% from the beginning of the month.
The recent supply side risks of crude oil have not been eliminated, and concerns about reduced crude oil supply due to geopolitical tensions still support oil prices. However, there has been no improvement in crude oil demand, and overall, international oil prices are mainly experiencing weak fluctuations in the short term. As of December 11th, the settlement price of the January WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $57.60 per barrel, and the settlement price of the February Brent crude oil futures contract was $61.28 per barrel. After a short shutdown, some PX units were restarted and the oil adjustment atmosphere cooled down, but the subsequent increase in PX unit maintenance has reduced the expected start-up, providing strong bottom support.
In terms of its own supply, PTA currently has no plans to adjust its new facilities. Some of the facilities that were shut down in November have not yet been restarted, such as the 2.2 million ton plant in Yisheng Ningbo that was shut down on November 20th; Dushan Energy’s 2.5 million ton facility will shut down on November 5th; The Zhuhai BP 1.1 million ton plant will be shut down on November 6th. The supply remains stable, and the overall industry operating rate is around 73%.
The downstream polyester factory equipment has not changed much, maintaining a high operating rate of around 86%. Since December, the trading atmosphere in the polyester filament market has been quite quiet, with factory inventory continuing to grow and shipping intentions increasing. The enthusiasm of terminal weaving enterprises for raw material procurement has decreased, and there has been no concentrated large-scale replenishment.
Business analysts believe that as Christmas approaches, a seasonal rebound in demand may provide support for oil prices. Downstream polyester factories may be scheduled for early holidays, and there is an expectation of a decline in weaving start-up rates in the future. At present, the expectation of accumulated inventory is still high, and it is expected that PTA prices will show a fluctuating downward trend.