According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province has fallen, with an average market price of 16750 yuan/ton as of now, and an average price of 17450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 4.01%.
This month’s market analysis
The domestic magnesium price shows an inverted V-shaped trend of “first rising and then falling, rising and falling”. At the beginning of April, the cash price including tax of 99.90% magnesium ingots in Shaanxi Province was consolidating around 17400-17500 yuan/ton. Since then, bullish sentiment has surged, and manufacturers’ reluctance to sell has become prominent. Coupled with rising speculative demand, magnesium prices have shown a step up trend, reaching a stage high of 17550 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Entering mid to late April, the fear of high sentiment drove a slowdown in terminal procurement, and manufacturers’ panic shipments led to a continuous decline in market prices. Supported by the pre May Day stocking sentiment at the end of the month, prices slightly rebounded.
Supply and demand side
The supply side was the core factor that put pressure on magnesium prices in April. Production data shows that in March, the original magnesium production increased by about 25100 tons year-on-year, and the magnesium alloy production increased by about 22900 tons year-on-year, with a supply growth rate significantly exceeding expectations. Entering April, driven by early profits, the operating rate of smelters in major production areas continues to rise, and the pace of resuming production in Xinjiang and other places accelerates. The operating rate of primary magnesium smelters nationwide may once again reach a historical high. As a result, the inventory on the manufacturer’s end continues to accumulate, mainly relying on long-term contract orders for delivery. Some factories with high inventory pressure are willing to lower prices to ship. The rapid expansion of the supply side has significantly suppressed the upward trend of magnesium prices.
On the demand side, there is a dual dilemma of weak and stable domestic demand and external demand pressure. In terms of domestic demand, although emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and humanoid robots have brought incremental expectations, it is difficult to fully offset the weakness of traditional demand in the short term – downstream purchases are mainly for essential needs, and order follow-up is slow. Most downstream industries expect magnesium prices to continue to weaken, and their willingness to take orders is low. At the same time, the customs continue to tighten their supervision on the export of magnesium products, and the export of magnesium containing substances requires quality inspection reports to prove that they do not belong to the category of dual-use items. The export risks of foreign trade traders have significantly increased, and the pace of document submission has slowed down. Although the weak support on the export side is not enough to shake the overall supply and demand pattern, it further exacerbates the bearish sentiment in the market.
Future forecast
It is expected that magnesium prices will continue to maintain a weak and stable consolidation pattern in May, with an expected operating range of 16400-17000 yuan/ton.

On April 27th, the price of isooctanol was 8933.33 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 3.60% compared to 9233.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month. The cumulative increase from 6700 yuan/ton at the beginning of March still reached 36.32%, and it is in the warning range of over inflation within one year. In April, the isooctanol market showed an overall pattern of “high volatility, first strong and then weak”. At the beginning of the month, it continued to rise strongly to the peak of the year in March, and then gradually retreated due to the impact of cost decline and supply-demand stalemate. The price fluctuated around the range of 9000-9500 yuan/ton throughout the month, and remained at the high level of the year as a whole. The core was dominated by the linkage between crude oil and propylene and changes in the supply and demand pattern. At the same time, starting from mid April, the average price of Shengyi Society moved downward, and the isooctanol market showed a clear downward trend.
Cost side: crude oil+propylene linkage, support first strong and then weak
4.1-4.7: The futures price of propylene is running at a high level. On April 7th, the main closing price of propylene reached 9447 yuan/ton. Coupled with the support of geopolitical factors in the previous crude oil price, the strong cost support of isooctanol pushed the price higher. With the implementation of the US Iran ceasefire agreement, crude oil prices plummeted and propylene prices simultaneously retreated. On April 27th, the main closing price of propylene dropped to 8360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.51% from April 7th. The cost support for isooctanol weakened, and prices were under pressure and retreated. In addition, the propylene to isooctanol ratio index remained high, further increasing the downward pressure on isooctanol.
Isooctanol supply and demand are both weak
In April, isooctanol enterprises continued to operate at a high level, and the operating load of isooctanol enterprises decreased. At the end of the month, the operating rate dropped to about 80%, and the supply of isooctanol decreased. Downstream procurement is mainly based on essential needs. In April, the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises decreased, and the operating load of DOP decreased from 66% in March to 55% in April, resulting in a decrease in operating capacity. The demand for isooctanol by plasticizers decreased, and the upward momentum of isooctanol weakened. The supply and demand of isooctanol are both weak.
Future prospects
On the cost side, crude oil prices are unlikely to rebound significantly due to the impact of the US Iran ceasefire, propylene prices are likely to remain volatile, and the cost support for isooctanol continues to weaken; On the supply and demand side, the production of isooctanol and plasticizer enterprises has both decreased, and the supply and demand are weak, making it difficult to support price increases. Overall, with cost reduction and weak supply and demand, it is expected that the price of isooctanol will fluctuate slightly in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from April 20th to 24th, the domestic aggregated MDI market prices fell weakly, with an average price of 19600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 19066 yuan/ton on April 24th, a decrease of 2.72% during the week and a year-on-year increase of 27.54%. During the week, major factories experienced a tight supply of goods, but the export market remained strong. Downstream demand has entered the market, with a majority of small transactions, and traders are lowering prices to sell their goods.
Supply side: On April 20th, some MDI units of BASF Shanghai were shut down for maintenance, with a duration of about 1-2 weeks. The MDI plant in Jinhu, South Korea (200000 tons/year) has a routine maintenance plan starting from early April, with a duration of about one month.
On the cost side: During the week, the price of pure benzene fluctuated upwards, downstream entered the market at a low price, pure benzene production was low, and maintenance was further intensified. Prices decreased, buying gas increased, and demand increased. The factory has raised prices, and demand has been suppressed. Recently, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain, and the pure benzene market is expected to operate strongly in the short term.
Demand side: Downstream demand is weak, with fewer inquiries and pressure from intermediaries on their shipments, resulting in price reductions.
Future forecast: The current aggregated MDI market is under downward pressure, but rigid support on the cost side still exists. It is expected that the aggregated MDI market will experience a narrow range of fluctuations in the short term.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has declined this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price was 55200 yuan/ton. On April 23rd, the average market price was 41400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25% and an increase of 25.45% compared to the same period last year. On April 22, the Business Society Bromine Index was 179.30, a decrease of 6.66 points from yesterday, a decrease of 27.21% from the highest point of 246.32 points during the cycle (2026-04-07), and an increase of 204.31% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
This week, the price quotation of bromine in Shandong region is relatively chaotic, but overall it is running weakly. The price of bromine in the Shandong market has fallen, with reference prices for manufacturers ranging from 35000 to 42000 yuan/ton. The quotes from manufacturers have also declined, creating a strong bearish atmosphere. The operating rate of the supply industry is steadily increasing, and spot inventory is slowly being replenished. In terms of demand: The downstream industry has average demand and continues to require essential procurement. Downstream enterprises have average purchasing enthusiasm and generally wait for prices to stabilize before making purchases.
In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have been overall consolidating this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 5950 yuan/ton, and on April 22, the average market price was 6000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.84% and a year-on-year increase of 179.81%. Downstream demand is still acceptable.
Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain weak in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to consolidate. Bromine supply is slowly recovering in the near future, and downstream buyers are mostly purchasing on demand, with a wait-and-see attitude towards bromine. The overall supply-demand game predicts that bromine will continue to operate weakly in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to data from Shengyishe Spot News, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 8580 yuan/ton on April 15th and 8283 yuan/ton on April 21st, a decrease of 3.46%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 11700 yuan/ton on April 15th and 11350 yuan/ton on April 21st, a decrease of 2.99%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on April 15th was 10412 yuan/ton, and on April 21st it was 10232 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.73%.
The peak season for spring plowing of plastic film in mid to late April has basically ended, and the operating rate of agricultural film factories has fallen, with weak support for basic needs. Downstream industries such as packaging, injection molding, and pipe materials generally have light orders: downstream factories have no intention of replenishing inventory, and traders sell goods at low prices to recoup funds, directly driving prices to accelerate downward.
Maintenance support is weakening: on the one hand, the market has already anticipated the expected restart of the equipment in May, and the current positive effect of maintenance is weakening; On the other hand, the continuous accumulation of inventory in enterprises indicates that the reduction in supply cannot keep up with the speed of demand decline, and the contradiction between supply and demand continues to expand, putting pressure on prices.
In recent times, the situation in the Middle East has been volatile, with oil prices showing sharp fluctuations, unstable cost support, and insufficient market sentiment.
In the short term, it is expected that polyethylene will continue to fluctuate weakly and be prone to decline but difficult to rise.