According to the Business Society Spot News, in the first half of May, the industrial grade dimethyl carbonate (DMC) market showed a sustained downward trend and low-level oscillation pattern. As of May 13th, the average price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 3833 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.54% from the beginning of the month. The overall market is running weakly, with significant pressure on fundamentals, and the technical side has entered the stage of oversold and bottoming out.
Fundamental analysis
Supply side: Device restart, high inventory
After the holiday, work resumed and multiple sets of equipment were restarted. The industry’s operating rate rebounded to over 66%, and the circulation of spot goods increased, resulting in an overall loose supply.
Enterprises have accumulated inventory and have a strong desire to reduce inventory, resulting in widespread discounts on shipments.
Demand side: Strong demand as the main factor, cautious procurement
Electrolyte: Terminal new energy orders are flat, and electrolyte factories purchase on demand and significantly lower prices, resulting in a decrease in procurement volume compared to the previous period.
Polycarbonate (PC): The industry has high production capacity, low profits, and insufficient operating rates, resulting in continued weak demand for DMC.
Traditional demand (coatings, adhesives): urgent need for replenishment, heavy mentality of price suppression, and mainly low-priced source transactions.
Export: Closing of previous orders, insufficient follow-up of new orders, and weakened export contribution.
Cost aspect: Weak raw materials and insufficient support
Epoxy propane (PO):
Cost support failure: When PO prices rise, DMC does not follow suit, indicating that weak demand makes it difficult for companies to transmit cost pressure and can only passively offer discounts for shipments.
Cost Downward Release Space: The significant drop in PO in the later stage further compressed the cost bottom line of DMC, providing space for further price declines, while also causing high cost devices to lose their upward momentum.
Methanol:
The significant decline in methanol prices has directly lowered the production cost of coal to DMC, causing low-priced sources to impact the market and intensifying the price war.
The decrease in DMC is smaller than that of methanol, indicating that the cost advantage brought by the decline in methanol has not been converted into corporate profits, but has been entirely given to downstream customers.
Market forecast:
Short term low-level bottoming is the main trend, and technical rebound is expected.
The current market fundamentals are still weak, with loose supply and difficulty in concentrating and increasing demand, making it difficult for the market to form a trend driven surge; However, the downward momentum in technology has weakened, prices are at a low level throughout the entire cycle, and coupled with spot prices approaching the industry’s production cost line, high cost equipment is expected to reduce production and limit production, and bottom support is gradually emerging. It is expected that in the second half of May, industrial grade dimethyl carbonate will mainly bottom out with low-level fluctuations. There is a technical opportunity for a slight rebound at this stage, but the rebound strength is limited. The upper part is suppressed by the moving average and trading sentiment, and it is difficult to have a significant upward trend.

According to data from Shengyishe Spot News, in early May, the hydrogen peroxide market experienced a sharp decline, with demand improving and the market steadily heating up. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1223 yuan/ton. On May 12th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 916 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25%.
Reasons for the decline in the hydrogen peroxide market
Supply side: After the May Day holiday, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers resumed production, with a national operating rate of nearly 80%. Pre maintenance (centralized completion, increased external sales of supporting equipment (epoxy propane/caprolactam), gradually relaxed supply, and increased supply pressure in the south.
Demand side: The downstream peak season is gradually coming to an end, and the terminal’s ability to accept high priced hydrogen peroxide is average, putting pressure on profits. Some manufacturers have reduced production and made on-demand purchases, resulting in a decline in procurement volume. New energy manufacturers are adopting a wait-and-see approach at a high level, resulting in a decrease in orders. Demand is weakening, buying up instead of buying down, and market transactions are sluggish.
Cost side: Loose raw materials, weakened support, falling prices of liquid chlorine and hydrogen, lower production costs, and increased willingness of enterprises to offer discounts.
Technical Prediction of Business Society’s Hydrogen Peroxide Spot Analysis: From the price trend chart of Business Society’s hydrogen peroxide, it can be seen that key indicators: in early May, the 10 day moving average of hydrogen peroxide crossed the 20 day moving average, and the spot market of hydrogen peroxide plummeted in early May, with prices continuously falling. The probability of a price drop for hydrogen peroxide in the latter half of the year is relatively high.
Auxiliary indicators: In early May, the price of hydrogen peroxide was at a low level on the 10th, 20th, and 30th, indicating that there is still room for upward trend in the hydrogen peroxide market in the long run.
In summary, in late May, the domestic hydrogen peroxide fundamentals were in a long short game, with supply pressure still present and terminal demand flat. From a technical perspective, it can be seen that the hydrogen peroxide market was at a low level in early May, and the overall market fluctuated widely in late May, with a high probability of an increase. The expected price is between 750 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton.

In early May, the domestic ABS market experienced a rise followed by a decline, with some grades experiencing a decrease in spot prices. According to data from Shengyishe Spot News, as of May 11th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.06% from the beginning of the month.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: As we enter May, the domestic ABS industry still maintains a relatively concentrated pattern of maintenance, and overall it continues to decline. The overall operating level of the industry has dropped to around 57%, a further decrease of 3% from the end of last month. The current weekly average production is less than 130000 tons, and the position of finished product inventory has been adjusted back to within 200000 tons. The pre holiday shipment situation of the aggregation plant is good, and there is still an expectation of contraction in production changes in the short term. Overall, the ABS supply side’s support for spot prices in early May is still acceptable.
Cost factor: Since May, there have been frequent reports of preliminary peace agreements between the United States and Iran in the Middle East, with high-level officials from both sides releasing positive signals. The market predicts that the Middle East conflict is likely to ease, and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is expected to resume, gradually narrowing the supply gap. After the holiday, the international crude oil market experienced a severe sell-off, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures both falling sharply, hitting a two-week low. Affected by it, the upstream three materials of ABS, which belong to the petrochemical chain, are all compressed.. Domestic consumption continues to decrease, with insufficient spot buying and sluggish transactions. However, the shortage of overseas supply of acrylonitrile continues, with high external prices and support for exports. In addition, the strong trend of raw material propylene prices has led to a slight increase in acrylonitrile prices driven by costs.
In early May, the domestic butadiene market experienced a weak downward trend, with an overall trading atmosphere that was quiet. The market showed a pattern of weakened cost support, relatively abundant supply, and sluggish terminal demand. There is a strong bearish sentiment in the market, with supplier quotes continuing to loosen and downstream purchases cautiously lowering prices. Market transactions are mainly based on small orders for essential needs. Due to the weak transaction volume of the bidding goods, the overall downward pressure on the market is obvious, and the short-term market is in a weak adjustment channel.
The styrene market continues to decline. From the perspective of raw materials, pure benzene has fluctuated and fallen recently. Although there are not many imported sources and the domestic supply and demand pattern of pure benzene tends to be strong, it is difficult to offset the guidance brought by the heavy decline in crude oil. However, the consumption of styrene lacks effective driving force, and the market lacks upward momentum. However, there have been frequent inspections and load reductions on the styrene supply side before and after the holiday, which is expected to limit the decline of the styrene market in the future.
In terms of demand: As we enter May, there has been limited change in the operating conditions of downstream ABS enterprises, with average consumption in the main terminal electrical housing industry and no improvement in the profitability of terminal enterprises. The atmosphere inside the venue is buying up, not buying down. At the same time, there is pre holiday inventory that needs to be digested, and the operation of replenishing inventory and building warehouses has significantly decreased. However, there is a tendency for merchants to lower their profit margins, while midstream traders snatch up after the decline in crude oil prices. The buyer camp has a high resistance to high priced goods, which in turn creates a drag on the price center within the range. Overall, the demand side has poor support for the ABS market.
Future forecast
In early May, the domestic ABS market rose and then turned downwards. The production load of the aggregation plant continues to slightly decrease, and the on-site supply remains sufficient. Cost three materials are weakly organized. The current ABS market is shrouded in a bearish shadow of cost decline and weak demand. At present, the focus of spot prices is loose, and on-site trading is relatively quiet.

ccording to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from May 6th to 9th, the domestic aggregated MDI market prices fell weakly, with an average price of 19866 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 19033 yuan/ton on May 9th, a decrease of 1.19% during the week and a year-on-year increase of 22.14%. During the week, the supply of goods from major factories remained tight, but due to the impact of the May Day holiday, downstream demand was light and transactions were low. In addition, the raw material pure benzene market has fallen, and the polymer MDI market has been under pressure and lowered due to the dual bearish trend.
Supply side: On April 20th, some MDI units of BASF Shanghai were shut down for maintenance, with a duration of about 1-2 weeks. The MDI units with production capacities of 130000 tons/year and 70000 tons/year in Tosa, Japan, are scheduled to start shutdown and maintenance at the end of April, with an expected duration of about 40 days.
Cost aspect: Geopolitical tensions have eased, oil prices are under pressure, and pure benzene has been dragged down by oil prices, resulting in a decrease in prices. In the short term, although there has been negative feedback in some downstream areas, the supply and demand pattern of pure benzene is still tight, port inventories continue to decline, and prices still have support.
Demand side: Downstream demand is weak, with fewer inquiries and pressure from intermediaries on their shipments, resulting in price reductions.
Future forecast: The current trend of the aggregated MDI market is weak, and the market is gradually recovering after the holiday, especially with strong demand in overseas markets. It is expected that the aggregated MDI market will consolidate and operate after a decline in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, after the holiday, the domestic BDO price fell from 8504 yuan/ton to 8470 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.39% during the period, a month on month increase of 0.05%, and a year-on-year increase of 6.55%. The device experiences narrow fluctuations, resulting in a slight reduction in the supply of goods. The overall downstream demand has increased, and the supply and demand pressure is controllable. However, due to insufficient follow-up on terminal demand and poor transmission of cost pressure, some downstream industries have experienced fluctuations and declines. They have mostly digested raw material inventory or followed up on essential contracts, resulting in light spot purchases and bargaining.
On the supply side, the supply of BDO goods has slightly decreased, and the positive support from the supply side still exists. The positive impact of BDO supply has weakened.
On the cost side, in terms of calcium carbide, due to the low price of calcium carbide in the early stage, the number of shutdown devices continues to increase, and the market supply weakens, resulting in a bottoming out rebound in calcium carbide prices. After the holiday, with the recovery of transportation capacity, production enterprises’ shipments improved, downstream waiting for unloading consumption was significant, and procurement was active. In terms of methanol, many facilities have entered a maintenance and shutdown cycle, coupled with the continuous low inventory of manufacturers, resulting in a tight market supply pattern. At the same time, the concentrated release of downstream post holiday replenishment demand has driven up prices in mainland China. The market for raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol is improving, and the cost of BDO is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, downstream industries such as PTMEG and PBT have seen an increase in production, while PBAT and PU slurry loads have declined. Other downstream loads have remained relatively stable, and downstream demand has increased significantly. There is a certain supply gap in the BDO industry. The impact of BDO demand is mixed.
In the future, the strong operation of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol will increase the cost pressure of BDO; Partial device restarts, resulting in increased supply; The production of PTMEG and PBT has increased, leading to an increase in demand. Overall, BDO analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the domestic BDO market will mainly focus on consolidation.