This week (5.11-5.15), the domestic PVC market maintained a volatile trend. Futures have experienced significant fluctuations due to policy stimulus, while spot markets have maintained a weak balance between demand and supply. The weak supply-demand pattern has not changed, and the short-term market has shown bottoming characteristics.
1、 Price trend: Futures’ roller coaster ‘, spot prices remain deadlocked at low levels
This week, the main PVC futures contract experienced a severe volatility, with spot prices following suit but with limited fluctuations. As of 3:00 pm on May 15th, the main futures contract was reported at 5027 yuan/ton, with a weekly fluctuation of 4.1%; The mainstream price of spot East China Dianshi SG-5 is 4890-4980 yuan/ton, with fluctuations of less than 100 yuan within the week, showing the characteristics of “strong futures fluctuations and weak spot prices following the rise”. The spot price of East China Dianshi SG-5 fell by 1.62% in the week.
2、 Supply and demand fundamentals: Limited supply contraction, sustained low demand
Supply side: Spring maintenance significantly reduces the burden of ethylene method drag
The overall PVC production rate this week is around 70%, which has not changed much compared to last week, and the supply pressure is still relatively high. The operating rate of the ethylene method has decreased, mainly due to the high price of ethylene raw materials, which has caused losses for enterprises. The pressure can only be alleviated by reducing the operating rate. The operating rate of the carbide method remains at 70-80%. Currently, the maintenance efforts of enterprises are moderate and have little impact on the market. There are no major variables in the future supply. In terms of inventory, social inventory remains at a high level, especially during the previous holiday period when there was a certain accumulation of inventory in the market, supply only increased without decreasing, and prices of bankrupt enterprises decreased. High inventory and supply pressure are currently difficult to effectively alleviate in the context of relatively sluggish demand.
Demand side: Downstream continues to be weak, export resilience limited hedging
The demand side remains the main limiting factor in the market, with an average downstream operating rate of less than 35% this week, a significant decrease from last week, and the operating rate hitting a new low for the year. The operating rate of downstream PVC pipes and profiles is generally lower than 30%, mainly due to the sluggish real estate industry and severe shrinkage of orders.
While domestic demand is weak, export performance is unsatisfactory. Despite the cancellation of export tax rebates and the end of the export rush, external demand still shows some resilience. Especially high exports to India. In addition, overseas facilities are gradually entering the maintenance period, maintaining a high demand for PVC in China. External demand has to some extent compensated for the shortfall in domestic demand, but overall, it is difficult to reverse the overall weak demand pattern.
3、 Cost side: Low price of calcium carbide, expanding losses of ethylene method
This week, the price of calcium carbide is still hovering at a relative bottom, with a weekly increase of 2.15%. However, from the curve, the price of calcium carbide is still at a temporary bottom. The cost support has weakened. The price of ethylene raw materials remains high, and ethylene production companies continue to suffer losses. There is a strong willingness to reduce production and reduce burdens, so companies can only shrink their supply, but it will not have a significant impact on the overall market.
4、 Future prospects
Analysts believe that the short-term PVC market will maintain a pattern of range oscillation and bottoming out. On the supply side, spring maintenance continues, and there is still room for a downward adjustment in the ethylene production rate. Supply may continue to shrink, but it is difficult to shake the high inventory pattern in the market in the short term. On the demand side, the off-season continues, especially in the real estate industry, where demand remains a disadvantageous factor. Overall, under the situation of supply and demand game, the recent PVC fluctuation range may further narrow, and the weak pattern remains unchanged.

Since May 2026, the domestic EVA market has entered a turning point, with the previous price support completely collapsing and the market entering an accelerated downward trend. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of May 14th, the benchmark price of EVA was 12016 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.21% from 12950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
After entering May, the decline in EVA has significantly increased, with companies successively lowering their ex factory prices and traders increasing their volume of discounts. In the short term, the moving average system forms a typical bearish pattern, with the 10 day, 20 day, and 30 day moving averages simultaneously turning downwards, and the deviation between prices and moving averages continues to widen.
The weakening of supply and demand fundamentals is the core driving factor behind the current market downturn. From the supply side perspective, the operating rate of EVA equipment in China remains high, and the early maintenance equipment has been restarted one after another. The supply of goods in the market continues to increase, and the inventory pressure of traders is gradually emerging. Some enterprises actively reduce prices and ship goods to recover funds, exacerbating the downward pressure on market prices. On the demand side, the situation continues to be weak, with downstream industries such as photovoltaics and shoe materials receiving orders that fall short of expectations. Photovoltaic film companies mainly purchase for essential needs, with low acceptance of high priced raw materials. At the same time, the recovery of terminal demand is slow, and downstream companies mostly adopt a strategy of on-demand procurement. The market lacks large-scale replenishment support, and in the pattern of supply-demand imbalance, prices lack effective support.
From a technical perspective and market signals, the current EVA market has entered a phase of low levels. Since May, the positions of the 10 day, 20 day, and 30 day cycles have all shown as “low”, with continuous oversold signals. The negative deviation of prices from the moving average has reached a temporary high, and there is a possibility of technical repair in the short term. However, in the medium to long term, the 60 day, 90 day, and annual line positions are still in the mid to high range, indicating that the current price is still in a relatively reasonable historical range and has not yet entered an absolute undervaluation level. Coupled with the lack of significant improvement in supply and demand fundamentals, the rebound momentum is expected to be relatively limited.
From early April to mid May 2026, the overall EVA spread showed a trend of first rising and then falling, and then continuing to turn negative and weaken. At the beginning of April, the average spread rapidly climbed from about 600 to a peak of about 730, and then continued to decline, approaching zero in mid April. Starting from the second half of April, the moving average officially turned negative and fluctuated downwards, falling to about -200 by mid May, with a slight rebound during this period and no change in the downward trend. Overall, the market price was relatively strong in the early stage, and the support gradually weakened. In the later stage, the price was lower than the benchmark level, and the market as a whole turned from strong to weak.
Looking ahead, there may be a slight oversold rebound in the short-term EVA market, but the rebound height may be relatively limited. On the one hand, after the current rapid decline in prices, some low-priced sources may attract downstream essential purchases, and traders may also engage in temporary price hikes, driving prices to slightly recover; On the other hand, supply side pressure still exists, downstream demand has not shown substantial recovery, and market confidence is difficult to quickly recover.
Overall, the current EVA market is still in a pattern of weak supply and demand and bearish sentiment. A short-term rebound is difficult to change the overall downward trend. The market needs to focus on the marginal changes in supply and demand fundamentals and the impact of the macro environment on downstream demand, and be alert to the risk of further price declines.

According to the Business Society Spot News, in the first half of May, the industrial grade dimethyl carbonate (DMC) market showed a sustained downward trend and low-level oscillation pattern. As of May 13th, the average price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 3833 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.54% from the beginning of the month. The overall market is running weakly, with significant pressure on fundamentals, and the technical side has entered the stage of oversold and bottoming out.
Fundamental analysis
Supply side: Device restart, high inventory
After the holiday, work resumed and multiple sets of equipment were restarted. The industry’s operating rate rebounded to over 66%, and the circulation of spot goods increased, resulting in an overall loose supply.
Enterprises have accumulated inventory and have a strong desire to reduce inventory, resulting in widespread discounts on shipments.
Demand side: Strong demand as the main factor, cautious procurement
Electrolyte: Terminal new energy orders are flat, and electrolyte factories purchase on demand and significantly lower prices, resulting in a decrease in procurement volume compared to the previous period.
Polycarbonate (PC): The industry has high production capacity, low profits, and insufficient operating rates, resulting in continued weak demand for DMC.
Traditional demand (coatings, adhesives): urgent need for replenishment, heavy mentality of price suppression, and mainly low-priced source transactions.
Export: Closing of previous orders, insufficient follow-up of new orders, and weakened export contribution.
Cost aspect: Weak raw materials and insufficient support
Epoxy propane (PO):
Cost support failure: When PO prices rise, DMC does not follow suit, indicating that weak demand makes it difficult for companies to transmit cost pressure and can only passively offer discounts for shipments.
Cost Downward Release Space: The significant drop in PO in the later stage further compressed the cost bottom line of DMC, providing space for further price declines, while also causing high cost devices to lose their upward momentum.
Methanol:
The significant decline in methanol prices has directly lowered the production cost of coal to DMC, causing low-priced sources to impact the market and intensifying the price war.
The decrease in DMC is smaller than that of methanol, indicating that the cost advantage brought by the decline in methanol has not been converted into corporate profits, but has been entirely given to downstream customers.
Market forecast:
Short term low-level bottoming is the main trend, and technical rebound is expected.
The current market fundamentals are still weak, with loose supply and difficulty in concentrating and increasing demand, making it difficult for the market to form a trend driven surge; However, the downward momentum in technology has weakened, prices are at a low level throughout the entire cycle, and coupled with spot prices approaching the industry’s production cost line, high cost equipment is expected to reduce production and limit production, and bottom support is gradually emerging. It is expected that in the second half of May, industrial grade dimethyl carbonate will mainly bottom out with low-level fluctuations. There is a technical opportunity for a slight rebound at this stage, but the rebound strength is limited. The upper part is suppressed by the moving average and trading sentiment, and it is difficult to have a significant upward trend.

According to data from Shengyishe Spot News, in early May, the hydrogen peroxide market experienced a sharp decline, with demand improving and the market steadily heating up. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1223 yuan/ton. On May 12th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 916 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25%.
Reasons for the decline in the hydrogen peroxide market
Supply side: After the May Day holiday, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers resumed production, with a national operating rate of nearly 80%. Pre maintenance (centralized completion, increased external sales of supporting equipment (epoxy propane/caprolactam), gradually relaxed supply, and increased supply pressure in the south.
Demand side: The downstream peak season is gradually coming to an end, and the terminal’s ability to accept high priced hydrogen peroxide is average, putting pressure on profits. Some manufacturers have reduced production and made on-demand purchases, resulting in a decline in procurement volume. New energy manufacturers are adopting a wait-and-see approach at a high level, resulting in a decrease in orders. Demand is weakening, buying up instead of buying down, and market transactions are sluggish.
Cost side: Loose raw materials, weakened support, falling prices of liquid chlorine and hydrogen, lower production costs, and increased willingness of enterprises to offer discounts.
Technical Prediction of Business Society’s Hydrogen Peroxide Spot Analysis: From the price trend chart of Business Society’s hydrogen peroxide, it can be seen that key indicators: in early May, the 10 day moving average of hydrogen peroxide crossed the 20 day moving average, and the spot market of hydrogen peroxide plummeted in early May, with prices continuously falling. The probability of a price drop for hydrogen peroxide in the latter half of the year is relatively high.
Auxiliary indicators: In early May, the price of hydrogen peroxide was at a low level on the 10th, 20th, and 30th, indicating that there is still room for upward trend in the hydrogen peroxide market in the long run.
In summary, in late May, the domestic hydrogen peroxide fundamentals were in a long short game, with supply pressure still present and terminal demand flat. From a technical perspective, it can be seen that the hydrogen peroxide market was at a low level in early May, and the overall market fluctuated widely in late May, with a high probability of an increase. The expected price is between 750 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton.

In early May, the domestic ABS market experienced a rise followed by a decline, with some grades experiencing a decrease in spot prices. According to data from Shengyishe Spot News, as of May 11th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.06% from the beginning of the month.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: As we enter May, the domestic ABS industry still maintains a relatively concentrated pattern of maintenance, and overall it continues to decline. The overall operating level of the industry has dropped to around 57%, a further decrease of 3% from the end of last month. The current weekly average production is less than 130000 tons, and the position of finished product inventory has been adjusted back to within 200000 tons. The pre holiday shipment situation of the aggregation plant is good, and there is still an expectation of contraction in production changes in the short term. Overall, the ABS supply side’s support for spot prices in early May is still acceptable.
Cost factor: Since May, there have been frequent reports of preliminary peace agreements between the United States and Iran in the Middle East, with high-level officials from both sides releasing positive signals. The market predicts that the Middle East conflict is likely to ease, and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is expected to resume, gradually narrowing the supply gap. After the holiday, the international crude oil market experienced a severe sell-off, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures both falling sharply, hitting a two-week low. Affected by it, the upstream three materials of ABS, which belong to the petrochemical chain, are all compressed.. Domestic consumption continues to decrease, with insufficient spot buying and sluggish transactions. However, the shortage of overseas supply of acrylonitrile continues, with high external prices and support for exports. In addition, the strong trend of raw material propylene prices has led to a slight increase in acrylonitrile prices driven by costs.
In early May, the domestic butadiene market experienced a weak downward trend, with an overall trading atmosphere that was quiet. The market showed a pattern of weakened cost support, relatively abundant supply, and sluggish terminal demand. There is a strong bearish sentiment in the market, with supplier quotes continuing to loosen and downstream purchases cautiously lowering prices. Market transactions are mainly based on small orders for essential needs. Due to the weak transaction volume of the bidding goods, the overall downward pressure on the market is obvious, and the short-term market is in a weak adjustment channel.
The styrene market continues to decline. From the perspective of raw materials, pure benzene has fluctuated and fallen recently. Although there are not many imported sources and the domestic supply and demand pattern of pure benzene tends to be strong, it is difficult to offset the guidance brought by the heavy decline in crude oil. However, the consumption of styrene lacks effective driving force, and the market lacks upward momentum. However, there have been frequent inspections and load reductions on the styrene supply side before and after the holiday, which is expected to limit the decline of the styrene market in the future.
In terms of demand: As we enter May, there has been limited change in the operating conditions of downstream ABS enterprises, with average consumption in the main terminal electrical housing industry and no improvement in the profitability of terminal enterprises. The atmosphere inside the venue is buying up, not buying down. At the same time, there is pre holiday inventory that needs to be digested, and the operation of replenishing inventory and building warehouses has significantly decreased. However, there is a tendency for merchants to lower their profit margins, while midstream traders snatch up after the decline in crude oil prices. The buyer camp has a high resistance to high priced goods, which in turn creates a drag on the price center within the range. Overall, the demand side has poor support for the ABS market.
Future forecast
In early May, the domestic ABS market rose and then turned downwards. The production load of the aggregation plant continues to slightly decrease, and the on-site supply remains sufficient. Cost three materials are weakly organized. The current ABS market is shrouded in a bearish shadow of cost decline and weak demand. At present, the focus of spot prices is loose, and on-site trading is relatively quiet.