This week, the acrylic acid market maintained stable operation amidst the game of cost support and weak demand, and market sentiment tended to be cautious and optimistic. As of February 10th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6116.67 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.
The current ‘stable’ state is a typical result of weak supply-demand balance, mainly reflected in two aspects:
On the cost side: Due to the strong price of the main raw material propylene, the production cost of acrylic acid remains high. If the selling price further drops, manufacturers will face losses, so they are determined to stabilize prices and set clear “floor prices” for the market. On February 10th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6437.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.52% compared to the beginning of this month (6404.33 yuan/ton).
On the demand side: Despite cost support, the recovery of demand in the end market is slow. Downstream enterprises generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude, only engaging in essential procurement without large-scale hoarding actions. This weak demand is like a ‘ceiling’, suppressing price increases.
Future prospects:
This fragile balance is expected to be broken by the end of the first quarter to the beginning of the second quarter of 2026. The future market direction depends on the game of several key variables:
The traditional peak season of “Golden Three and Silver Four” after January is crucial. If the recovery of the real estate and consumer goods markets drives downstream demand to rebound beyond expectations, prices are expected to break through upwards.
2. The maintenance equipment in the early stage of the second quarter will resume production, and the output of newly added capacity will be more fully released. At that time, the supply pressure will significantly increase, which may suppress prices.
The trend of international energy prices will directly reshape the cost line of acrylic acid. If there is a trend change in crude oil prices, it will disrupt the current cost balance.
In summary, the acrylic acid market showed initial signs of stabilization or even partial recovery in early February, but the foundation is not yet solid. For market participants, short-term operations should remain flexible and should not have excessive expectations for unilateral market trends. Strictly controlling inventory is still the best strategy. Medium – to long-term preparation requires being prepared for potential trend trends in the second quarter and closely monitoring the actual evolution of the key variables mentioned above.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, domestic formic acid has shown a stable but rising trend recently. As of February 9th, the benchmark price of 85% formic acid in Shengyi Society was 2440 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.83% compared to the same period last week (February 2nd) at 2350 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of 6.09%, and a year-on-year decrease of 17.29%.
Supply side: Maintenance and capacity load dominate, supported by inventory formation
The supply side is one of the core driving factors for the volatility of the formic acid market in this period. On the one hand, the maintenance of the equipment has led to a phased contraction in supply. The maintenance of a 100000 ton production capacity equipment in a factory in Liaocheng lasted through the first ten days, directly affecting the regional supply of goods; On the other hand, most manufacturers’ equipment is not operating at full capacity, coupled with some manufacturers’ periodic production cuts, resulting in a sustained tight supply of goods in the market, providing basic support for price increases. In addition, the impact of inventory factors is particularly crucial. At the end of January, manufacturers offered discounts on sales to take on a large number of orders, which led to a low median level of market inventory in the first half of the year, further highlighting the tight supply situation and becoming an important driving force for price increases. The reasonable buffering of industry inventory in the early stage also avoided the supply gap caused by maintenance, which led to significant price fluctuations.
On the demand side: domestic demand is weak, and export consolidation is forming a supplement
The demand side presents a differentiated pattern of “domestic weakness and export support”. In terms of the domestic market, the approaching Spring Festival holiday is the core influencing factor, and downstream industries such as rubber, medicine, leather, and pesticides are gradually entering the stage of stocking up. Purchasing attitudes tend to be cautious, with rigid demand as the main focus and weak stocking willingness, which has limited driving effect on formic acid prices; In terms of export markets, the arrival of the port consolidation period before the new year has become an important highlight on the demand side. The export shipment volume has increased compared to the previous period, effectively digesting some domestic sources of goods and providing certain support for prices.
The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that, based on the current market pattern and the trends of supply and demand, it is expected that the domestic formic acid market will mainly operate at a stable price before the Spring Festival, with limited price fluctuations. Specific changes in supply and demand still need to be monitored.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium in China was 3846 yuan/ton on February 1st, and 3843 yuan/ton on February 6th. This week, the market price of ammonium phosphate fell by 0.09%.
2、 Market analysis
This week, the market for ammonium phosphate fluctuated slightly and fell. The price of raw material sulfur has decreased, and the cost support has weakened. Downstream demand for replenishment is urgent, and pre holiday demand is slightly light. As of February 6th, the market price of 55 powder ammonium in Hubei region is around 3840-3900 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 3900-3950 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan region it is around 3750-3850 yuan/ton.
In terms of raw material sulfur. The sulfur market has fallen this week. Downstream procurement is mainly cautious, and the market transaction atmosphere is sluggish. As of February 6th, the reference price for sulfur in Shandong region is around 3983 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the market for ammonium phosphate has recently undergone a narrow adjustment. At present, pending orders are the main focus, with costs still at a high level and average downstream demand. It is expected that the short-term market for ammonium phosphate will stabilize and operate steadily.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) on February 2 was 7025 yuan/ton, and on February 5, the average price was 6918 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.52%. The average price of LDPE (2426H) on February 2nd was 9066 yuan/ton, and on February 5th it was 8916 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.65%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on February 2nd was 7450 yuan/ton, and on February 5th it was 7392 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77%.
Recently, various varieties of polyethylene have shown an overall trend of oscillation and weakness.
Cost side: Crude oil rebounded slightly on February 3rd and 4th, but it did not change the market’s expectation of a weakening cost side, resulting in limited support for the cost side.
Supply side: The restart of facilities such as Sinochem and Maoming, coupled with the commissioning of Yulong LDPE/EVA facilities, has further increased market supply. There is an expectation of an increase in supply side, which has suppressed prices.
On the demand side: As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream factories are gradually shutting down, and terminal demand has entered a seasonal off-season, with light trading and difficulty in supporting sustained price increases.
In the short term, the polyethylene market will continue to be dominated by a weak supply-demand pattern, and prices are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly.

Isobutyraldehyde prices fluctuate and rise
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 5th, the domestic price of isobutyraldehyde was 6333.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 9.83% compared to the January 1st price of 5766.67 yuan/ton; The price of isobutyraldehyde has significantly increased from 5750 yuan/ton on January 20th, with a growth rate of 10.14%. The price of propylene fluctuated and rose. In January, the equipment production of isobutyraldehyde enterprises increased to about 85%. Starting from the end of the month, the production of isobutyraldehyde manufacturers slightly decreased, inventory was low, and isobutyraldehyde supply was tight, resulting in a sharp rise in isobutyraldehyde prices.
The price of raw material propylene fluctuates and rises
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 5th, the price of propylene was 6437.67 yuan/ton, a decrease followed by an increase of 0.26% compared to the price of 6421 yuan/ton on January 27th; The price of propylene has significantly increased by 12.59% from 5717.67 yuan/ton on January 1st. There are many maintenance tasks for the propylene plant, and the supply of propylene is temporarily tight, resulting in fluctuating propylene prices. Cost support, the increase in cost of isobutyraldehyde provides significant support.
Isobutyraldehyde manufacturers start production at a high level and fall back
The overall operating rate of isobutyraldehyde manufacturers is high, and in February, the operating rate of isobutyraldehyde manufacturers slightly decreased to around 83%. The production of isobutyraldehyde has decreased, and the support for the rise of isobutyraldehyde has increased.
Increased demand for isobutyraldehyde
The price of neopentyl glycol rose in February. On February 5th, Yantai Wanhua quoted 7650-7800 yuan/ton, which was a fluctuating increase compared to the quoted 7250-7400 yuan/ton on January 20th. The price of neopentyl glycol has risen, coupled with stocking up before the Spring Festival, the demand for isobutyraldehyde has increased in the short term, and the price of isobutyraldehyde has fluctuated and risen.
Market Overview and Forecast
The analyst of the isobutyraldehyde industry at Shengyi Society believes that in terms of cost, the price of raw material propylene has risen significantly, and the support for the increase in isobutyraldehyde costs has increased; In terms of supply and demand, the production of isobutyraldehyde has slightly decreased, the supply of isobutyraldehyde has tightened, and the upward momentum of isobutyraldehyde has increased; In terms of demand, the price of neopentyl glycol has increased, coupled with stocking before the Spring Festival, which has led to an increase in demand for isobutyraldehyde and increased support for its rise. In the future, with the significant increase in costs and the tightening of supply and demand for isobutyraldehyde, the support for isobutyraldehyde’s rise is increasing, and it is expected that isobutyraldehyde prices will fluctuate and rise in the future.