1、 Market dynamics
This week, the domestic acrylic acid market has shown a “weak stable consolidation and narrow range oscillation” operating characteristic under the continuous game of slight increase in supply and cautious downstream procurement. As of December 10th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6066.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27% compared to the beginning of this month (6083.33 yuan/ton).
The current ‘weak stability’ pattern is the result of a temporary balance of multiple forces such as supply, demand, and cost.
1. Supply side:
According to market information, the supply of acrylic acid in the market has indeed increased. However, it is worth noting that the current market operating rate may not be at a high level. Holders of goods generally adopt a flexible offer strategy of “following the market”, and their willingness to lower prices in the bottom price area is not strong, which has formed a certain support for the market.
2. Demand side:
Downstream demand is the core constraint factor in the current market. The average performance of orders in the terminal field (such as coatings, adhesives, SAP resins, etc.) has led downstream factories and traders to adopt a cautious and wait-and-see attitude towards the future market. The procurement behavior is strictly based on urgent needs and small orders, lacking the enthusiasm for bulk stocking, and generally having a mentality of price suppression. This “on-demand procurement and bargain hunting” model has resulted in a lack of motivation for price increases and a stagnant market.
3. Cost side:
The price of the main raw material propylene remained relatively stable in early December. As of December 10th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6220.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.65% compared to the beginning of this month (6180.75 yuan/ton). High costs have made manufacturers strongly willing to raise prices, but in the case of weak demand, cost support is difficult to smoothly transmit downstream, resulting in continuous compression of profit margins.
2、 Short term outlook:
Overall, the acrylic acid market does not have the conditions to break the deadlock in the short term. The market is expected to continue consolidating within the current low range. The price fluctuation range is limited and lacks clear directional guidance. The core contradiction of the market is still the game of “high cost, weak demand”.
3、 Long term trend:
It is worth noting that in the long run, the acrylic acid industry is undergoing structural changes. The massive increase in production capacity will lead to loose supply, and the core of industry competition is shifting from “scale competition” to “technology premium”. Top enterprises with the production capacity of high-end specialty products (such as high-purity electronic grade and medical grade acrylic acid) and cost advantages in the integrated industrial chain will gain stronger competitiveness.

According to data analysis from Shengyi Society, as of December 9th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6223.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.69% compared to the beginning of this month (6180.75 yuan/ton). Although prices have risen, the core downstream demand remains weak, resulting in a lack of momentum for price increases.
Supply side:
The overall operating rate of the industry remains at around 74%. Some PDH devices are expected to restart, and there is a possibility of increased supply.
Demand side:
Polypropylene: As the largest consumer sector of propylene, the PP industry is experiencing deep production losses and proactive reduction of burdens. As of the second week of December, the industry’s production profit remained in the deep loss range of around -300 yuan/ton. As a result, its operating load rate has dropped to a low of 40% -42%. As of December 9th, the benchmark price for PP (wire drawing) in Shengyi Society was 6330.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.52% compared to the beginning of this month (6363.33 yuan/ton).
Epoxy propane (PO): Although the industry’s profit has slightly recovered from the loss line, maintaining a rigid procurement strategy for raw material propylene makes it difficult to form a sustained demand for replenishment. As of December 9th, the benchmark price of epoxy propane in Shengyi Society was 8166.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.94% compared to the beginning of this month (7933.33 yuan/ton).
Acrylic acid: The industry’s production and profits are relatively stable, providing fundamental support for the demand for acrylic acid. However, due to its limited total demand and growth space, it is unable to offset the gap of declining demand for PP powder. As of December 9th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6066.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27% compared to the beginning of this month (6083.33 yuan/ton).
Acrylonitrile (AN): The industry is in an unsustainable state of “high production and high losses”. Behind the current operating rate of around 81% is a cash flow loss of over -500 yuan/ton. Its high load operation is mainly due to market share and cash flow considerations, but it has become a significant potential risk point in downstream demand, and there is a possibility of centralized maintenance due to intensified losses in the future. As of December 9th, the benchmark price of acrylonitrile in Shengyi Society was 7833.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.84% compared to the beginning of this month (7900.00 yuan/ton).
Cost aspect:
International oil prices are trending towards volatility, and the pressure of medium to long-term oversupply still exists, resulting in insufficient cost support for propylene. The relatively firm price of propane has led to continuous losses in the PDH (propane dehydrogenation) process route, but has not yet triggered large-scale maintenance and production reduction.
In summary, the current core logic of the propylene market is a rebalancing driven by demand contraction. The widespread losses and low profits in downstream industries have formed a negative transmission of raw material demand by reducing operating rates. Until there is no significant recovery in terminal consumption and downstream product inventory is effectively depleted, it is expected that propylene prices will maintain a low volatility pattern, and its rebound space will continue to be strictly constrained by demand. The focus of observing market trends is on the profit recovery process of the PP powder industry and whether industries such as acrylonitrile will experience supply contraction due to cash flow pressure.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) on December 1st was 6905 yuan/ton, and the average price on December 5th was 6845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.87%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9000 yuan/ton on December 1st and 8500 yuan/ton on December 5th, a decrease of 1.11%. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 7387 yuan/ton on December 1st and 7312 yuan/ton on December 5th, a decrease of 1.02%.
Recently, polyethylene remains weak and difficult to change. Polyethylene supply continues to increase, inventory remains high, and there are not many planned maintenance units in December. The demand performance is flat, with many companies purchasing on demand and low enthusiasm for receiving goods. They adopt a wait-and-see and cautious attitude, and the overall downstream operating rate has declined. The demand for greenhouse film is gradually decreasing, the improvement in demand for plastic film is limited, and the packaging film industry is in the off-season. There is currently no positive news to stimulate, the fundamentals are weak, and market confidence is insufficient. It is expected that polyethylene will remain weak and difficult to change.

1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market fell from a high level this week (12.1-5), and prices fluctuated downward. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4400 yuan/ton, with a drop of 1.23% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
This week, PVC did not continue its previous upward trend, and prices continued to decline during the week. During the week, most manufacturers provided stable quotes, with some mainly lowering their prices by within a hundred yuan. The fundamental performance of supply and demand is weak, with obvious supply pressure. Although the operating rate of manufacturers has not increased, social inventory is still in the process of rising. In terms of demand, external demand is weak, and exports are affected by the external environment, resulting in increased export pressure. The domestic market maintains a stable demand for essential goods. Overall, demand is weak. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4450-4480 yuan/ton.
In terms of upstream calcium carbide, the calcium carbide market rebounded this week, with a growth rate of 3.8% according to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society. The rise in calcium carbide prices has driven downstream PVC prices to rebound at the beginning of the week, but from mid week to the weekend, the market was affected by supply and demand pressures, and prices did not continue to rise.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the PVC spot market is expected to continue to perform poorly in the short term. Looking at next week, the pressure on the supply side may ease, and equipment such as Jinlu and Yibin Tianyuan have maintenance plans. However, considering the high social inventory, there will not be much change in the supply in the near future. From the demand side, the enthusiasm for external procurement is not high, the demand performance is average, and the market demand is mainly driven by urgent needs. Overall, PVC prices may stop falling next week and turn into volatility, and a real rebound market may not occur.

This week, the sulfur market is in a pattern of “external strength and internal stability, easy to rise but difficult to fall”, with mixed long and short factors in the market, but the support force is significantly stronger.
The price level shows structural differentiation. On December 4th, the benchmark price of sulfur in Shengyi Society was 3924.33 yuan/ton, a slight correction of only 0.75% compared to yesterday’s (3897.33 yuan/ton), indicating a slight fluctuation in short-term market sentiment.
Spot market performance:
The prices of the main refineries remain stable, and the bidding base price of Dalian refineries has even been slightly raised. Especially in the Shandong region, the price of liquid sulfur has significantly increased by 20-80 yuan/ton, which clearly indicates that the regional spot supply is not loose, and even tight. The transaction price of around 4100 yuan/ton along the Yangtze River has also remained stable at a high level.
The core contradiction of the market lies in “strong expectations” and “weak reality”
On the one hand, the strength of the international market is currently the most core driving factor. The inquiry price of CFR 530-535 USD/ton in India and Indonesia has formed a huge price difference with the existing import price of CFR 490-492 USD/ton in China. This indicates that the cost of importing sulfur into China will face enormous upward pressure in the future, creating a solid “cost floor” for domestic market prices.
On the other hand, the domestic spot market is showing a situation of “light trading volume”. Sellers are generally reluctant to sell and have a weak willingness to ship due to the expectation of bullish external market and limited arrival at the port; However, the buyer’s acceptance of the current high price is limited, making it difficult to reach a transaction through inquiries, resulting in a decrease in market trading activity.
Supply side:
The number of arrivals is limited, and although the total inventory of ports nationwide has slightly increased, the inventory of key Yangtze River consumer ports continues to decline, indicating that the spot goods in the core region are slowly being consumed.
Demand side:
Despite lacking explosive power, it is still slowly exerting force, providing a stable foundation for essential needs. This pattern of “limited supply while demand still exists” makes the market not have the conditions for a sharp decline.
Conclusions and Prospects
In summary, the current light trading in the market is a brief game between buyers and sellers at high prices, rather than a signal of a weakening trend. Against the backdrop of tight international sulfur supply and demand and skyrocketing prices, the cost support in the domestic market is extremely strong. Combined with the insufficient domestic spot resources and sellers’ reluctance to sell, it is reasonable to judge that the sulfur market is prone to rise but difficult to fall.
In the short term, the sulfur market may continue to fluctuate and consolidate at a high level, waiting for new drivers to break the deadlock. Once international high priced resources are traded and gradually transmitted domestically, or if downstream domestic demand is concentrated and released at some point, prices are likely to regain upward momentum. It is necessary to closely monitor the bidding and transaction results of Dalian Refinery, the sustainability of the price increase of liquid sulfur in Shandong, and the actual transaction prices of international buying, all of which will become key indicators affecting the next direction of the market.