According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, after the holiday, the domestic BDO price fell from 8504 yuan/ton to 8470 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.39% during the period, a month on month increase of 0.05%, and a year-on-year increase of 6.55%. The device experiences narrow fluctuations, resulting in a slight reduction in the supply of goods. The overall downstream demand has increased, and the supply and demand pressure is controllable. However, due to insufficient follow-up on terminal demand and poor transmission of cost pressure, some downstream industries have experienced fluctuations and declines. They have mostly digested raw material inventory or followed up on essential contracts, resulting in light spot purchases and bargaining.
On the supply side, the supply of BDO goods has slightly decreased, and the positive support from the supply side still exists. The positive impact of BDO supply has weakened.
On the cost side, in terms of calcium carbide, due to the low price of calcium carbide in the early stage, the number of shutdown devices continues to increase, and the market supply weakens, resulting in a bottoming out rebound in calcium carbide prices. After the holiday, with the recovery of transportation capacity, production enterprises’ shipments improved, downstream waiting for unloading consumption was significant, and procurement was active. In terms of methanol, many facilities have entered a maintenance and shutdown cycle, coupled with the continuous low inventory of manufacturers, resulting in a tight market supply pattern. At the same time, the concentrated release of downstream post holiday replenishment demand has driven up prices in mainland China. The market for raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol is improving, and the cost of BDO is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, downstream industries such as PTMEG and PBT have seen an increase in production, while PBAT and PU slurry loads have declined. Other downstream loads have remained relatively stable, and downstream demand has increased significantly. There is a certain supply gap in the BDO industry. The impact of BDO demand is mixed.
In the future, the strong operation of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol will increase the cost pressure of BDO; Partial device restarts, resulting in increased supply; The production of PTMEG and PBT has increased, leading to an increase in demand. Overall, BDO analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the domestic BDO market will mainly focus on consolidation.

On April 30, 2026, the price of organic silicon DMC was adjusted to 14700 yuan/ton. On April 1, the price of organic silicon DMC was adjusted to 14000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 700 yuan/ton, or 5%.
1、 Price market description
From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in April, the price of organic silicon DMC in Shandong Province, China, rose in a stepped manner, from 14000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 14700 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a cumulative increase of 5% in a single month. There was no pullback or decline throughout the month, indicating a strong market trend.
The first stage (4.1-4.4) was the first round of price increases in the market, with prices jumping from 14000 yuan/ton to 14300 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.14%. This was mainly influenced by the consensus of industry conferences to raise prices, with top manufacturers in Shandong closing down and raising prices, and spot auction prices rising first.
In the second stage (4.7-4.22), the market situation platform sorted and combined with a second price increase, and the price remained stable at 14500 yuan/ton for about two weeks. This is the stage when the market digests the previous price increase and supply-demand game. Downstream demand gradually replenishes inventory, supporting prices to maintain high levels.
In the third stage (4.25-4:30), the market situation surged towards the end of the month, reaching a peak of 14700 yuan/ton. As the May Day holiday approaches, downstream pre holiday stocking demand is concentrated and released, coupled with the unchanged tight supply pattern in the industry, prices have once again risen to 14700 yuan/ton.
2、 Analysis of Factors Influencing Market Trends
Supply side: Industry self-discipline to reduce production+supply contraction
The domestic organic silicon industry will implement a production restriction strategy from the end of 2025. By 2026, the industry’s operating rate will remain at around 6 to 7 floors, and some enterprises will only have a load of 50% -60%. Coupled with some equipment maintenance, effective supply will continue to shrink, and large factories have a strong willingness to raise prices.
Demand side: resonance between essential needs and pre holiday stocking
The demand for downstream photovoltaic adhesives, new energy vehicles, electronics and other fields is stable, and the export market is performing well; At the end of April, as the holiday approached and downstream inventory was depleted, the demand for pre holiday replenishment was released in stages, further supporting price increases.
Cost side: Dual support of raw materials and policies
The upstream metal silicon market raw materials are operating steadily, and the bottom support of organic silicon DMC costs is clear.
3、 Future forecast
Forecast prospects based on supply and demand and cost aspects
From the supply side, the current pattern of production reduction and equipment maintenance in the industry will continue in the short term, and the willingness of large factories to raise prices is still strong. The situation of tight spot circulation will continue. On the cost side, the raw material market has shown stable performance, and macro policy support still exists, giving the market a certain bottoming out in terms of costs. In the short term, the overall price of organic silicon DMC will continue to operate at a high and strong level. In the future, attention still needs to be paid to the supply changes after the maintenance of upstream devices, the sustainability of downstream demand, and the impact of external geopolitical situations on raw material prices.

As of April 30, 2026, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 7666 yuan/ton, a decrease of 900 yuan or 10.51% from April 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 8566 yuan/ton).
1、 Price Trend Review
In April, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong showed a trend of first rising and then falling. At the beginning of the month, the price of n-butanol quickly rose, reaching a high point of 8933 yuan/ton for the month. However, due to insufficient support, the high price was short-lived, and the center of gravity of n-butanol gradually declined, falling to a low point at the end of the month. As of April 30th, the reference price for n-butanol market in Shandong region is around 7600-7800 yuan/ton.
2、 Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
The trend of n-butanol prices rising and falling in April is essentially a direct reflection of the rapid shift from tight balance to loose supply and demand pattern. The following is a phased breakdown of the impact of supply and demand:
Early April (1-8): Tight supply+rigid demand support, price surge
Supply side: At the beginning of the month, the supply side of n-butanol showed a phase of contraction, with low market inventory, multiple domestic units undergoing maintenance or operating at low loads, low industry operating rates, and limited market spot circulation. Due to the support of export orders from some mainstream factories, the domestic sales source has further decreased, and the factory inventory is at a low level, indicating a strong willingness to raise prices.
On the demand side: the market is expected to stock up during peak seasons, downstream stocks will be replenished at low prices, and the market will increase volume in response to temporary demand. Downstream industries such as coatings, adhesives, and acrylic esters are expected to experience the “Silver Four” peak season, coupled with low prices at the beginning of the month. Downstream enterprises are concentrated in buying inventory at low prices, resulting in active market inquiries and transactions.
Mid to late April (9-30): The supply-demand contradiction becomes apparent
Supply side: The n-butanol maintenance unit has resumed production, and the overall supply pressure in the market has rebounded. The devices that underwent early maintenance have been restarted one after another, and the industry’s operating rate has rapidly rebounded. The market supply of goods has increased, and the tight supply pattern in the early stage has begun to ease. Some new devices are expected to be put into operation, and the market is increasingly concerned about the increase in supply in the later stage.
Demand side: Short term demand ends, downstream procurement pace slows down. After a brief increase in downstream demand for “gold, silver, and four” materials, the demand for raw materials in industries such as plasticizers and coatings slowed down, and large-scale inventory replenishment behavior decreased. In addition, with price increases, downstream resistance to high priced raw materials began to emerge.
Future forecast
Supply and demand direction analysis
In April, the overall n-butanol market in Shandong Province rose first and then fell. The trend of the market is essentially a manifestation of the supply recovery speed far exceeding the demand recovery speed. Downstream demand lacks incremental growth overall, and it is difficult for essential procurement to digest new supply. The market has entered a downward channel of “strong supply and weak demand”.
Entering May, it is expected that the market will experience a range adjustment, and whether the demand side can steadily release it still needs to be monitored.

In April, the overall performance of the domestic acetone market showed a clear trend of “first suppression and then rebound”, with price trends divided into three stages: high-level decline, continuous downward exploration, and bottoming out rebound. The core driving logic gradually shifted from the dual suppression of weak costs and weak demand in the early stage to a coordinated force pattern of supply contraction, cost recovery, and demand improvement. Market sentiment also gradually shifted from cautious observation before the holiday to stabilization and improvement.
Downward phase (mid to high): Triple bearish pressure, prices continue to decline
-Loose cost support: The international crude oil price correction has driven a significant decline in upstream pure benzene prices. As the core raw material for acetone production, the decline in pure benzene prices has directly weakened the cost support for phenol ketone production, and production enterprises have insufficient ability to support prices, becoming the core incentive for price decline. At the same time, the operating rate of the phenol ketone industry remains high, and the supply is relatively abundant, further exacerbating the pressure on the cost side.
-Continued weak demand: The overall production of downstream industries is insufficient, with sluggish demand in the main downstream MMA and bisphenol A industries, and poor transmission of demand in the end market. The MMA industry has been dragged down by demand from the terminal coatings and plastics industries, resulting in a decline in operating rates and a reduction in procurement volume; Although the bisphenol A industry maintains a certain operating rate, the recovery of the terminal real estate and home appliance industries is weak, and the inventory of finished products in enterprises is high. The willingness to purchase acetone is not strong, and the market presents a situation of “price but no market”. The demand side cannot form effective support.
-Market mentality cautious: Prior to the May Day Labor Day holiday, there was a strong wait-and-see atmosphere among businesses, and traders mainly focused on shipping to avoid the risk of price drops after the holiday. There was a large bargaining space for actual orders, and overall market trading was weak; Downstream enterprises adopt a strategy of “purchasing as needed and taking as needed”, unwilling to replenish inventory in bulk, further dragging down market prices.
（2） Rebound stage (late stage): Triple positive synergy, price bottoming out and rebounding
-Supply side contraction: Multiple sets of phenol ketone units are undergoing centralized maintenance or load reduction, resulting in a decrease in the total supply of acetone in China and a 2.5 percentage point decrease in the operating rate of the phenol ketone industry; At the same time, there is insufficient supply of imported goods, and the import volume in April has significantly decreased compared to March. Port inventory continues to deplete, and spot circulation is tight. The supply-demand pattern is gradually improving, laying a solid foundation for price rebound.
-Cost side rebound: International crude oil prices have rebounded slightly, driving domestic pure benzene prices to stabilize and gradually rebound. The supporting role of phenol ketone production costs has become more prominent, and production enterprises have increased their willingness to raise prices, leading to a linked rise in market quotations.
-Marginal improvement in demand: The downstream bisphenol A and MMA industries have entered a rigid replenishment cycle, with a slight release of terminal procurement demand; At the same time, traders and production enterprises joined forces to raise prices, and market sentiment gradually improved. Some downstream enterprises were concerned about the continued rise in prices and began to replenish inventory in small quantities, further boosting price recovery.
From the perspective of Business Society, the acetone market is expected to experience strong fluctuations in the short term (early May), with continued supply and maintenance, supported costs, and downstream demand for replenishment; Price attention should be focused on breaking through the range of 7800-8000 yuan/ton, and if demand is insufficient, it should return to 7200-7500 yuan/ton for consolidation. Long term attention should be paid to equipment maintenance, pure benzene trends, and terminal demand.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province has fallen, with an average market price of 16750 yuan/ton as of now, and an average price of 17450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 4.01%.
This month’s market analysis
The domestic magnesium price shows an inverted V-shaped trend of “first rising and then falling, rising and falling”. At the beginning of April, the cash price including tax of 99.90% magnesium ingots in Shaanxi Province was consolidating around 17400-17500 yuan/ton. Since then, bullish sentiment has surged, and manufacturers’ reluctance to sell has become prominent. Coupled with rising speculative demand, magnesium prices have shown a step up trend, reaching a stage high of 17550 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Entering mid to late April, the fear of high sentiment drove a slowdown in terminal procurement, and manufacturers’ panic shipments led to a continuous decline in market prices. Supported by the pre May Day stocking sentiment at the end of the month, prices slightly rebounded.
Supply and demand side
The supply side was the core factor that put pressure on magnesium prices in April. Production data shows that in March, the original magnesium production increased by about 25100 tons year-on-year, and the magnesium alloy production increased by about 22900 tons year-on-year, with a supply growth rate significantly exceeding expectations. Entering April, driven by early profits, the operating rate of smelters in major production areas continues to rise, and the pace of resuming production in Xinjiang and other places accelerates. The operating rate of primary magnesium smelters nationwide may once again reach a historical high. As a result, the inventory on the manufacturer’s end continues to accumulate, mainly relying on long-term contract orders for delivery. Some factories with high inventory pressure are willing to lower prices to ship. The rapid expansion of the supply side has significantly suppressed the upward trend of magnesium prices.
On the demand side, there is a dual dilemma of weak and stable domestic demand and external demand pressure. In terms of domestic demand, although emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and humanoid robots have brought incremental expectations, it is difficult to fully offset the weakness of traditional demand in the short term – downstream purchases are mainly for essential needs, and order follow-up is slow. Most downstream industries expect magnesium prices to continue to weaken, and their willingness to take orders is low. At the same time, the customs continue to tighten their supervision on the export of magnesium products, and the export of magnesium containing substances requires quality inspection reports to prove that they do not belong to the category of dual-use items. The export risks of foreign trade traders have significantly increased, and the pace of document submission has slowed down. Although the weak support on the export side is not enough to shake the overall supply and demand pattern, it further exacerbates the bearish sentiment in the market.
Future forecast
It is expected that magnesium prices will continue to maintain a weak and stable consolidation pattern in May, with an expected operating range of 16400-17000 yuan/ton.