At the end of January, the domestic ABS market continued to rise, with most grades experiencing fluctuations in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 26th, the average price of ABS sample products was 8850.00 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase or decrease of+7.27% in price level.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: Since January, the domestic ABS industry has had a large and stable load with small fluctuations. Recently, there has been a slight decrease in overall production, with some units of Zhejiang Petrochemical undergoing maintenance and release. The overall operating level of the industry has been reduced by about 3% to 67%, and the weekly average production has dropped to 142000 tons. The inventory position of aggregation enterprises has leveled off at around 200000 tons, and the supply on site tends to be tight and balanced. Overall, the supply-demand imbalance in the ABS market has eased in the short term, and the supply side still has sufficient support for ABS spot prices.
Cost factor: At the end of January, the upstream three material market of ABS rose and fell twice, which had a positive impact on the cost side of ABS. The acrylonitrile market has remained calm in the early stages, with average demand and pressure on local inventory, leading to continuous price reductions from major suppliers. Recently, the overall load reduction of the East China factory has led to the shutdown of a set of equipment in Silbang, temporary shutdown and maintenance of the Jieyang equipment in Jihua, and a reduction in supply from the supply side. Downstream users began to stock up on dips, and the acrylonitrile market bottomed out and consolidated.
The butadiene market is showing a significant upward trend. At present, the cost side crude oil prices are relatively high, strengthening bottom support. The supply side equipment maintenance, inventory clearance, and external linkage have formed multiple benefits. The demand side Shunding rubber has started to operate at a high level to provide sustained demand, and the imbalance between supply and demand has driven the market to strengthen. In the short term, the supplier’s mentality of supporting prices will continue, and the load of the end of line butadiene rubber plant is likely to remain high, providing support for the butadiene market. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will maintain a high volatility pattern.
The styrene market also saw a significant increase. The current resumption of work in the industry falls short of expectations, and supply side support has been strengthened. The increase in maintenance of overseas styrene plants and the increase in inquiries and actual transactions of styrene exports from China have further driven the depletion of port inventory. The situation in the Middle East is boosting crude oil prices, and the raw material pure benzene continues to rise. The fundamental improvement of styrene is significant, and it is expected that the styrene market will consolidate at a high level in the short term.
On the demand side: At the end of January, there was no significant improvement in the consumption of ABS’s main downstream electrical appliance shell industry, and the improvement in the profitability of end enterprises was limited. In the early stage, the spot price was low, and buyers engaged in buying orders at low prices. However, with the recent rise in spot prices, there has been an increase in resistance towards high priced goods. Overall, the demand side provides moderate support for the ABS market.
Future forecast
At the end of January, the domestic ABS market continued to rise. The production load of the aggregation plant remains stable with a slight decrease, and the supply balance in the field is tight, maintaining a strong overall cost side. Business analysts believe that the macro level ABS supply and demand contradiction pattern is still present, but the strong momentum of buying orders at low prices in the early stage has eased production and sales pressure. However, the recent increase has been relatively large, and it is expected that buyers’ acceptance of prices will decline, which may lead to a consolidation of ABS market in the future.

1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market stopped falling and rebounded this week (1.19-23), with a significant increase this week. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4560 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.22% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
Supply side: The atmosphere of speculation in the PVC spot market has gradually strengthened this week, and the spot market has rebounded this week driven by the futures market. The market performance has improved in terms of supply and demand, and the export volume has maintained growth. In addition, on the supply side, the PVC operating rate has slightly decreased this week, with some companies operating at rates below 50%. In addition, this is mainly based on the increase in trading volume and the improvement of market sentiment.
In terms of inventory, the market has maintained a high trading volume recently, and social inventory continues to decrease. However, considering the previously large basic inventory, the current spot supply side still maintains a relatively abundant level.
On the cost side: This week, the price of calcium carbide in the market rebounded from a low level, and the market returned to an upward trend. According to the monitoring of Business Society, the weekly increase of calcium carbide this week was 0.79%. The increase in downstream procurement volume has a certain stimulating effect, and PVC prices have rebounded.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, PVC supply and demand will remain stable. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, there is an expectation of a decrease in factory operating rates, and enterprise inventory is still in the stage of depletion. On the demand side, external demand remains strong, but there are expectations of a decline in downstream domestic production due to the approaching holiday season. In the later stage, the supply-demand game will intensify, and the price of PVC may show a volatile trend, making it difficult to have a strong trend. The market should view the current upward trend with caution.

The Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society shows that after New Year’s Day, the price of adipic acid has steadily increased. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of adipic acid was 7133 yuan/ton. On January 22, the average market price of adipic acid was 7466 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.67%.
The raw material market is boosting, and the adipic acid market is steadily rising
After the New Year’s Day, the prices of pure benzene and cyclohexanone, raw materials for adipic acid, continued to rise, driven by the stocking market of terminal nylon. Manufacturers continuously raised the ex factory price of adipic acid, and market transactions improved. The market steadily rose, with an increase of nearly 5%. As of January 22, the average price of adipic acid in the domestic market is around 7500 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton.
An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that terminal manufacturers purchase according to demand, and the sustained upward momentum of the adipic acid market in the future is insufficient, which may lead to a weak decline.

The current anhydrous hydrogen fluoride market is in a two-way tug of war between “cost driven” and “demand suppressed”. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 20th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 13033.33 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month.
On the raw material side, the prices of fluorite and sulfuric acid remained stable this week. Although the prices on the raw material side were stable, they still provided solid cost support for anhydrous hydrofluoric acid, limiting its potential for significant price drops. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 20th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3406.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18% compared to the beginning of this month (3400.00 yuan/ton).
Demand side: As the downstream refrigerant industry approaches the end of the year, production quotas have been exhausted, and overall demand is weak, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. Maintain a wait-and-see attitude and have low purchasing enthusiasm. The market price has shown weak upward momentum, and in the short term, the main focus will be on executing contract orders and maintaining weak stability. It is expected that the operation of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride will be the main focus in the later stage.
Market forecast: The price of raw material fluorite sulfuric acid is running steadily, but there is still some support. In addition, downstream demand is weak, and rigid demand is mainly purchased, resulting in weak demand side support. It is expected that the market price of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride will mainly consolidate in the later stage. More attention should be paid to changes in market supply and demand.

price trend
The price center of mainstream production areas is slowly shifting downwards. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 16th, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong region was reported at 1026 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.08% from the beginning of the month.
Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
The core contradiction in the current market is that “costs are supported, but demand lags behind”, resulting in a double squeeze on prices and profits.
1. Loose supply
The overall operating rate of the industry is not high, but due to weaker demand, the market’s spot supply is still sufficient.
2. Weak demand (core drag)
Dragging on the board industry: The downstream artificial board industry, which is the largest source of formaldehyde, continues to experience a contraction in demand due to factors such as high real estate and raw material costs, as well as intense industry competition, resulting in rigid procurement of formaldehyde. Other downstream self use is the main focus: fine chemical downstream industries such as formaldehyde and Urotropin have poor profits and mainly rely on digesting supporting formaldehyde, resulting in low demand for external purchases.
3. Poor cost transmission
The expected decrease in the import volume of raw material methanol, coupled with significant destocking at ports, has driven up methanol prices. As of January 16th, the benchmark price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2250.83 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.96% from the beginning of the month. But it is difficult to effectively transmit to the selling price of formaldehyde, and downstream acceptance is poor. In order to control inventory, factories can only sell at a discounted price.
short-term outlook
In the short term, the formaldehyde market is expected to continue the pattern of “weak stability stalemate”. The rise in costs supports downward space, but weak demand and inventory pressure from factories further suppress any potential for an increase. Whether the market can break the deadlock depends on whether the downstream sheet metal industry’s production and stocking situation has improved beyond expectations.