This week, the spot price of melamine in China fluctuated downward, and the market center of gravity continued to shift downwards. At the beginning of this week, the benchmark price of melamine was 6337.50 yuan/ton. As of August 18th, the price has fallen to 6212.50 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 1.97% during the week.
Weakening support on the raw material side
The simultaneous decline of upstream raw material urea further dragged down market sentiment. As of August 18th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1702.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.13% from 1757.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month. The shift in the center of gravity of raw material costs has weakened the cost support of melamine, further opening up the room for enterprise price adjustments.
Supply and demand and market mentality
On the demand side, downstream board and coating industries mainly purchase on demand, with insufficient willingness to replenish in large quantities and a relatively light market trading atmosphere. The supply side industry has maintained relatively stable production, with sufficient supply of goods in the market and a more relaxed supply-demand pattern. The bearish sentiment in the market has intensified, and the enthusiasm of holders to ship has increased, resulting in continuous price concessions.
Future prospects
Overall, the short-term weak operation of raw material urea is difficult to form strong support, and there is no obvious expectation of downstream demand recovery. Coupled with the continuation of the bearish trend in the technical market, it is expected that the short-term melamine market will maintain a volatile and weak pattern, and there is still a risk of downward shift in the price center. Focus on tracking upstream urea price fluctuations, factory operation adjustments, and downstream terminal demand follow-up in the future.
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