On May 8th, the market price of methyl ethyl carbonate remained stable, with electronic grade market prices ranging from 8300 to 8400 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday.

There is an upward trend in the production of methyl ethyl carbonate in May, and some factories on site have expressed plans to start production; The 100000 ton diethyl carbonate (Phase I) project has been officially put into operation. Driven by the overall supply side of the methyl ethyl carbonate market, the supply has increased and the capacity utilization rate has slightly improved. However, from the demand side, downstream users also need to replenish after the holiday, so the magnitude of the change will not be too large. In early May, demand was in a weak trend.

Overall, the domestic market for methyl ethyl carbonate has remained stable in recent times, and attention will be paid to the recovery of factory operations and the expected boost in downstream demand. With the further recovery of the supply side, the supply and demand situation in the methyl ethyl carbonate market remains abundant in the short term. Analysts from Business Society predict that the weak and narrow range consolidation of the methyl ethyl carbonate market will follow.

In terms of imports:

In the first quarter of 2024, China’s cumulative import of diethylene glycol reached 110200 tons, a decrease of 7400 tons or 6.29% compared to the same period last year. The import volume in January was 43100 tons, the import volume in February was 28400 tons, and the import volume in March was 38700 tons.

The top three main import directions are Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Oman, with Saudi Arabia accounting for 69658 tons, accounting for 63.2%, Kuwait accounting for 18796 tons, accounting for 17.1%, and Oman accounting for 9122 tons, accounting for 8.3%.

The top three import destinations are Jiangsu Province, Zhejiang Province, and Shanghai City. Among them, Jiangsu Province is the mainstream province for domestic diethylene glycol trade, and has a large downstream UPP production capacity, with an import volume of 41500 tons, accounting for 37.7%, ranking first; The second place is Zhejiang Province, with an import volume of 3.47 tons, accounting for 31.5%. Shanghai ranks third with an import volume of 8500 tons, accounting for about 8%.

In terms of exports:

In the first quarter of 2024, the cumulative export volume of diethylene glycol in China was 8900 tons, a decrease of 8200 tons or 47.9% compared to the same period last year. The export volume in January was 2400 tons, the export volume in February was 14000 tons, and the export volume in March was 5000 tons. Due to the high operating load of domestic diethylene glycol units in March, the production increased significantly, resulting in a significant increase in export growth.

The main export directions are Brazil, South Korea, and Japan. Brazil ranks first with 1206 tons, accounting for 13.4%, South Korea ranks second with 1062 tons, accounting for 11.8%, and Japan ranks third with 707 tons, accounting for 8%.

The main shipping areas are Shandong Province and Henan Province, with 2088 tons and 2047 tons respectively, accounting for 23% and 22% respectively. Next is Jiangsu Province, with an export volume of 1710 tons, accounting for 19%. The shipment volume from other regions is relatively low, less than 1000 tons.

The price of acetic anhydride rose first and then fell in April

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 30th, the price of acetic anhydride was 5625.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.51% compared to the price of acetic anhydride on April 1st, which was 5787.50 yuan/ton.

In April, the acetic anhydride market first rose and then fell, with upstream acetic acid prices rising and then falling. The cost advantage of acetic anhydride is limited; Acetic anhydride enterprises have stable production, sufficient market supply, weak downstream demand, and follow up on demand when entering the market. Acetic anhydride manufacturers have no pressure on inventory, and the price of acetic anhydride fluctuates with the upstream market.

The acetic acid market rose first and then fell in April

According to the analysis system of the acetic acid market of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the price of acetic acid was 3250 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.84% compared to the price of acetic acid on April 1st, which was 3250 yuan/ton. In the first half of the year, the acetic acid market was relatively strong and prices continued to rise, mainly due to the shutdown and concentrated load reduction of some domestic acetic acid plants, resulting in a significant decrease in the utilization rate of on-site production capacity. At the same time, downstream replenishment was active, and the market trading atmosphere was good. Under the situation of supply shortage, the price of acetic acid continued to rise; In the latter half of the year, with the resumption of on-site acetic acid plant maintenance, the utilization rate of production capacity has increased, the market supply has increased, and downstream follow-up has weakened. Pre holiday stocking is average, and the market trading atmosphere is weak. In order to promote the continuous reduction of acetic acid prices for shipment, actual transactions on the site are limited, and the acetic acid market is weak and downward, which has a negative impact on acetic anhydride.

Future prospects

According to the acetic acid analyst from Business Society, in terms of raw materials, the price of acetic acid has fallen, and the cost support for acetic anhydride has weakened; In terms of supply, the acetic anhydride market has sufficient supply of goods, and manufacturers have a clear shipping sentiment; Downstream demand is poor, and businesses have limited entry into the market for purchasing. In the future, the cost of acetic anhydride will remain stable, with limited supplier support. The market for acetic anhydride will remain stable for the time being, and specific attention will be paid to changes in upstream prices.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market for refined and hydrogenated naphtha in April first rose and then fell, with an overall slight decline. As of April 30th, the mainstream ex factory price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha in China was 8376.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21% from 8394.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month. The market for locally refined straight run naphtha first rose and then fell, with an overall slight upward trend. As of April 30th, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined straight run naphtha was 8349.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.78% from 8284.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month.

Product: In April, the overall market for refined naphtha showed an inverted V-shaped trend. Currently, the mainstream price of refined hydrogenated naphtha is around 8400 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is around 8300 yuan/ton. In the first half of April, the rise in international crude oil supported the naphtha market, while the related gasoline market showed positive performance. In addition, some local refining enterprises are currently mainly shut down for maintenance and self use, and the pressure on refineries is limited, resulting in high support; In the second half of the month, the international crude oil market fell from a high level, increasing the wait-and-see sentiment of domestic naphtha. Terminal trading of ground refining naphtha is limited, and market trading is still concentrated in the gap of ground refining restructuring.

Upstream: The crude oil market in April was volatile, and the instability of the current situation in the Middle East still has a certain positive impact on oil prices. This will keep oil prices at high levels, and the resistance to a significant decline in the future is still significant. In addition, the current demand side has also shown some positive expectations, and the peak driving season in North America will stimulate gasoline demand. The decline in US crude oil and finished oil inventories has also provided support for oil prices.

Downstream: The toluene market rose and fell in April. The international crude oil price fluctuates at a high level, and the cost of toluene continues to support; Downstream demand for disproportionation and blending is lower than expected, with weak support for toluene demand; The high level of port inventory has a bearish impact on the toluene market. In April, domestic PX production declined and the market remained stable. In mid to early April, some devices were shut down for maintenance, and PX production decreased from 8.4% to around 6.9%; In mid to late April, some maintenance equipment restarted, and the domestic PX production slightly increased to around 7.1%.

Energy analysts from Business Society believe that the international crude oil market has fallen from a high level, increasing the wait-and-see sentiment for domestic naphtha; At present, the terminal trading of ground refining naphtha is limited, and market trading is still concentrated in the gap of ground refining restructuring; In terms of gasoline, it is difficult to increase the operating rate of refineries in the short term. With the arrival of the May Day holiday, there will be an increase in residents’ travel. In addition, with the rising temperature, there will be an increase in fuel consumption, ensuring the demand for gasoline. There is also room for a slight increase in gasoline prices; The demand for diesel has not changed much, and the travel of hazardous chemical vehicles during holidays is limited. In addition, the bearish mentality of traders has increased, and the willingness to ship is strong. It is expected that the short-term diesel market will mainly fluctuate and decline. Overall, it is expected that the post holiday refined naphtha market will mainly consolidate.

DBP prices of plasticizers weakened and consolidated in April

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 29th, the DBP price was 9337.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.27% compared to the DBP price of 9362.50 yuan/ton on April 1st. The decline of DBP in April slowed down compared to February and March, and DBP prices in April were weak and consolidated.

The raw material n-butanol fluctuates and falls, the price of isooctanol fluctuates and falls, and the cost of DBP decreases; The decline in downstream spring maintenance work compared to the same period last year, the demand support for plasticizer DBP still exists, and the support for DBP price increases is limited.

The price of n-butanol fluctuated and fell in April

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 29th, the price of n-butanol was 7833.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuation decrease of 0.63% compared to the price of n-butanol on April 1st, which was 7950 yuan/ton. The overall production capacity utilization rate in the n-butanol field has slightly decreased, and the overall supply pressure in the n-butanol market has been alleviated. The supply side provides support to the n-butanol market. The downstream demand for n-butanol is mainly for rigid procurement, and downstream users are stocking up before the May holiday. The overall inquiry atmosphere on site has improved, and there is still support from the demand side. The price of n-butanol fluctuates and consolidates, with weak support for DBP costs.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell in April

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 29th, the price of isooctanol was 9700 yuan/ton, a fluctuation decrease of 3.58% compared to the price of 10060 yuan/ton on April 1st. In April, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell. In April, the price of isooctanol did not continue the downward trend in March. The price of isooctanol remained low and consolidated, while the price of raw material propylene fluctuated and consolidated. Cost support was insufficient, and the downward pressure on isooctanol increased. The upward momentum weakened; Downstream customers have average purchasing enthusiasm, with limited support from isooctanol.

Downstream enterprises have less than expected maintenance

In April, downstream enterprises began spring maintenance one after another, with an increase in enterprise maintenance. This year, the demand for plastic products in the market has been sluggish, and the order situation is lower than expected, resulting in limited growth in demand for plasticizers. There is still downward pressure on the demand side of plasticizers in the future. In April, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises decreased month on month, but the maintenance of enterprises did not meet expectations, and the capacity utilization rate of enterprises increased year-on-year. The maintenance is mainly concentrated in mid April, and in the latter half of the year, the maintenance enterprises gradually recover, with a slow increase in production and strong demand for plasticizers.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that in terms of cost: n-butanol fluctuates and falls, isooctanol prices fluctuate and fall, DBP raw material costs decrease, and DBP downward pressure increases; On the supply side, plasticizer DBP manufacturers are operating steadily, and there is an oversupply of DBP; In terms of demand, downstream manufacturers will undergo spring maintenance, but the decrease in operating load is less than expected, and the demand for plasticizers is still supported. In the future, cost reduction will support demand; Expected weak and stable DBP prices in the future.