According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong fluctuated and increased in February. The price of isooctanol increased from 12375 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 12450 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 0.61%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 35.82% year-on-year.

On February 27th, the Isooctanol Commodity Index was 91.54, an increase of 0.09 points from yesterday, a decrease of 33.43% from the highest point in the cycle of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 160.43% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream ex factory prices of Shandong isooctanol have slightly increased this month, with average inventory levels.

Cost side: Propylene market fluctuates and rises

The propylene market rose first and then fell in February, with an overall slight increase. At the beginning of the month, the price of propylene fell to a low point, and downstream investors entered the market on dips, resulting in an increase in trading volume and a wave of increase in propylene prices. After the holiday, downstream demand fell short of expectations and some inventory was mainly consumed. Upstream goods flow is not smooth, and prices are under pressure and declining. At the end of the month, due to the increase in prices of some downstream products and propylene, profits rebounded, driving downstream active entry into the market and slightly increasing propylene prices. The upstream market has slightly increased, with good cost support, which has a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

Demand side: DOP market fluctuates and rises

After the holiday, plasticizer enterprises resumed production, demand increased, and DOP market prices fluctuated and rose. The price of DOP increased from 11780 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 11800 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 0.17%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 18.71% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly increased, and downstream customers are more enthusiastic about purchasing isooctanol.

Looking at the future market: In mid to early March, the Shandong isooctanol market may experience a slight fluctuation and rise, with consolidation being the main trend. The upstream propylene price has slightly increased, with increased cost support. The downstream DOP market has recently seen a slight increase, and downstream manufacturers are more proactive in purchasing isooctanol. Analysts from Shengyishe Isooctanol believe that in the short term, the Shandong Isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand, as well as raw materials.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA6 market has strengthened, with some spot prices rising. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of February 26th, the domestic benchmark price of PA6 mixture was 14925 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+1.02% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above chart, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam has recently increased. Last week, the price of raw material pure benzene increased, leading to increased cost support. Driven by raw materials, the market trend of caprolactam is on the rise. Downstream replenishment is mainly based on demand, and the market transaction atmosphere is good, which provides strong support for the cost of PA6.

In terms of supply:

Recently, the load of PA6 production enterprises has been steadily increasing, with an average operating rate of over 82%. The market supply has remained relatively stable compared to the previous period, and the on-site supply of goods is relatively abundant. The inventory level is still not high, the pressure on suppliers is not significant, and there is still support for PA6 spot goods.

In terms of demand: downstream, the main downstream industries have not yet fully resumed work. The operating rate of spinning has increased to around 70%, while the weaving load has rebounded to nearly 37%, and there is still room for an increase in load in March. The demand for stocking by terminal enterprises has slightly increased, and on-site trading tends to be cautious. The demand side support for PA6 is average.

Future Market Forecast

In the week after the holiday, the PA6 market consolidation was relatively strong. The price of caprolactam has strengthened, providing sustained support for the cost side of PA6. The load of domestic polymerization plants remains stable with small fluctuations, and the inventory position remains low. Terminal enterprises need to stock up on demand. But pure benzene has started to decline, which may affect the cost side of PA6 in the future. As the load increases, the pressure on the supply side will gradually become apparent. It is expected that the PA6 market will enter a consolidation phase in the short term.

Cobalt prices fluctuate and fall after the holiday

According to the cobalt market analysis system of Business Society, on February 20th, the cobalt price was 216800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32% compared to February 1st’s cobalt price of 217500 yuan/ton; Compared to February 9th, the cobalt price of 217200 yuan/ton decreased by 0.18%. The resumption of work and production after the holiday is not satisfactory, and the demand for cobalt in the market is weak. The price of cobalt continues to decline after the holiday, and the price of cobalt fluctuates and falls.

The resumption of work and production is not satisfactory, and the demand for cobalt in the market remains weak

After the festival, the downstream resumed work, and the logistics has not yet fully recovered. Some enterprises plan to resume production after Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival). Currently, most of them stop production for maintenance. Downstream stocking before the holiday, inventory still exists, downstream customer restocking is limited after the holiday, and actual transactions in the spot market are scarce.

The traditional off-season for new energy vehicles has not seen a recovery in high economic development after the holiday season. The production of battery factories and upstream raw material manufacturers has increased, and there is still uncertainty in cobalt demand. Consumer electronics remain weak, and corporate procurement enthusiasm is insufficient. The demand for cobalt in the market is cold.

Overview and Outlook

Business Society data analyst Bai Jiaxin believes that the resumption of work and production after the holiday is not good, and the demand for cobalt in the market is still cold, while the supply in the cobalt market is sufficient. Overall, the oversupply and weak demand in the cobalt market are expected to lead to a weak consolidation of cobalt prices in the future.

After holiday price consolidation of plasticizer DOP

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 19th, the price of DOP was 11820 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.08% compared to the price of 11810 yuan/ton on February 9th before the holiday; Compared to February 1st, the price of 11780 yuan/ton fluctuated and increased by 0.34%. The price of raw material isooctanol has increased, the cost of plasticizer DOP has increased, and the price of DOP has stabilized strongly; During the Spring Festival, the production of plasticizer enterprises decreased, and some enterprises stopped, with a production rate of less than 30%. After the holiday, plasticizer enterprises resumed production, and the supply of plasticizer DOP increased.

After the holiday, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and increased

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of February 19th, the quotation for isooctanol was 12450 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 0.81% compared to the quotation for isooctanol on February 9th before the holiday, which was 12350 yuan/ton; Compared to February 1st at the beginning of the month, the price of 12375 yuan/ton increased by 0.61%. During the Spring Festival, the operating load of isooctanol enterprises decreased, but there was some recovery after the holiday. In addition, downstream customers restocked, and the demand for isooctanol slowly rebounded. During the Spring Festival, the price of isooctanol remained high, and after the holiday, the price of isooctanol slightly increased.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that during the Spring Festival, plasticizer manufacturers have seen a decrease in production, but after the holiday, plasticizer production has resumed, and the supply of plasticizers has increased. In addition, the price of isooctanol has risen, leading to an increase in the cost of plasticizer DOP. In the future, as the cost of plasticizers increases and the supply increases, there is still limited support from the rise in DOP and downward pressure. It is expected that DOP prices will remain weak and consolidate in the future.

Review of polyacrylamide market trends in 2023

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China in 2023 was 15442.86 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 13220.00 yuan/ton at the end of the year, with an annual decline of 14.39%. The highest point of the year occurred on January 11th at 15642.86 yuan/ton, and the lowest point of the year occurred on December 8th at 1322.00 yuan/ton, with a maximum amplitude of 15.49%. The polyacrylamide market will experience a high decline in 2023.

According to the K-bar chart data of the polyacrylamide market in Business Society in 2023, the polyaluminum chloride market experienced more declines and less gains, with one month of upward movement and eleven months of downward movement. The highest increase was in January, up 0.65%, and the highest decrease was in April, down 3.37%.

In 2023, the polyacrylamide market continued to decline, and due to the overall impact of the economic situation, downstream demand remained weak and the industry’s prosperity was not high; Domestic manufacturers in the main production areas have normal production and abundant stock; The overall market for polyacrylamide raw materials has fallen, with limited supply and demand support, and manufacturers continue to lower prices.

Prediction of polyacrylamide market in 2024

Cost side:

Raw material acrylonitrile: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the acrylonitrile market will fluctuate widely in 2023. At the beginning of the year, the price was 9600 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year, the price was 9812 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.21% compared to the beginning of the year; The high point of the year was 10800 yuan/ton, and the low point was 7800 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 38.46%.

As of the end of 2023, the total production capacity of acrylonitrile in China reached 4.399 million tons/year, and the annual utilization rate of acrylonitrile industry capacity was 73.11%. According to statistics, there are still three sets of new production capacity plans totaling 920000 tons/year planned to be put into operation in China in 2024, with most of the production time in the second half of 2024. The increase in supply will put pressure on the acrylonitrile market in 2024.

Raw Material Acrylic Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average quoted price of acrylic acid in the East China region was 6800 yuan/ton on January 1, 2023, and the average price of acrylic acid on December 31 was 6187.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.01% in the year’s market. The lowest price point of the year was 5825.00 yuan/ton on November 3rd, and the highest price point of the year was 8200.00 yuan/ton on February 13th, with a maximum amplitude of 40.77%. In 2023, with the completion of the construction of the 180000 ton acrylic acid plant for Zhejiang Satellite, China’s acrylic acid production capacity expanded to 4.08 million tons, with a slight increase in production compared to 2022. Wanhua Chemical and Shandong Sanyue have plans to put new acrylic acid plants into operation in 2024, and the overall acrylic acid production capacity is expected to increase in 2024.

Supply side: China is the world’s largest producer of polyacrylamide, and in recent years, the scale of China’s polyacrylamide industry has continued to grow. In 2022, the production of polyacrylamide in China was 1.3623 million tons, with a demand of 1.1653 million tons. Polyacrylamide in China is mainly a mid to low-end product, while high-end products still need to be imported.

Demand side: From the application scenarios of polyacrylamide, the petroleum extraction industry is the main downstream of polyacrylamide. About 42% of the total production of polyacrylamide in China is used for petroleum extraction, 31% for water treatment, 13% for the papermaking industry, and other industries such as coal washing and metallurgy account for 14%. As of 2023, the number of urban sewage treatment plants in China has exceeded 2000, with a daily processing capacity of 170 million cubic meters. At the same time, more and more rural areas are starting to build sewage treatment facilities, further promoting the development of the industry.

Market forecast: Currently, there is not much difference between supply and demand in China’s polyacrylamide market. In 2024, the polyacrylamide market in China will still be greatly affected by upstream and downstream market trends, and it is expected that the polyacrylamide market will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range.