The cost side is relatively strong, and the PA6 market is rising upstream

Price trend


Recently, the domestic PA6 market has strengthened, with some spot prices rising. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of February 26th, the domestic benchmark price of PA6 mixture was 14925 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+1.02% compared to the beginning of the month.


Cause analysis


In terms of raw materials:


From the above chart, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam has recently increased. Last week, the price of raw material pure benzene increased, leading to increased cost support. Driven by raw materials, the market trend of caprolactam is on the rise. Downstream replenishment is mainly based on demand, and the market transaction atmosphere is good, which provides strong support for the cost of PA6.


In terms of supply:


Recently, the load of PA6 production enterprises has been steadily increasing, with an average operating rate of over 82%. The market supply has remained relatively stable compared to the previous period, and the on-site supply of goods is relatively abundant. The inventory level is still not high, the pressure on suppliers is not significant, and there is still support for PA6 spot goods.


In terms of demand: downstream, the main downstream industries have not yet fully resumed work. The operating rate of spinning has increased to around 70%, while the weaving load has rebounded to nearly 37%, and there is still room for an increase in load in March. The demand for stocking by terminal enterprises has slightly increased, and on-site trading tends to be cautious. The demand side support for PA6 is average.


Future Market Forecast


In the week after the holiday, the PA6 market consolidation was relatively strong. The price of caprolactam has strengthened, providing sustained support for the cost side of PA6. The load of domestic polymerization plants remains stable with small fluctuations, and the inventory position remains low. Terminal enterprises need to stock up on demand. But pure benzene has started to decline, which may affect the cost side of PA6 in the future. As the load increases, the pressure on the supply side will gradually become apparent. It is expected that the PA6 market will enter a consolidation phase in the short term.