As of December 27, 2016 week, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced the fund positions, WTI long 357096 hand positions, short positions 71857 hands, the net more than 265239 hand positions, compared to November increased significantly, with OPEC production agreement, the funds for the optimistic outlook of crude oil.

However, analysts for crude oil rebound height is not so optimistic.

Huang Liqiang pointed out that the production of frozen OPEC made it possible to realize the global rebalancing of crude oil, but subject to the U.S. shale oil potential supply increases, then the equilibrium time may be later than expected, so in 2017 the trend of crude oil price shocks tend to focus on the whole, between 50-60 dollars / barrel.

“The trend is still on the rise, but due to the production of good has been part of the cash, and oil prices will bring shale oil production and return oil producers hedging, so prices rise is limited, limited space to continue upward.” Sui Xiaoying said.

“Although the incremental demand may be dropped significantly compared with 2016 in 2017, but the release of supply in a vacuum period short, rebalancing process may be accelerated, expected prices is still rangebound trend in the overall price level in 2017, WTI central move, shock interval is 45-65 dollars / barrel.” Jin Xiao said.

He further said that the oil market will cause prices to accelerate the rebalancing of the supply of more risk sensitive, supply risk is concentrated in Libya and venezuela. Although Libya is in production, but the domestic political instability still exist. In addition, the stability of the Venezuelan economy collapse of its oil output can also pose a risk. If any one of them the risk of the outbreak, then WTI prices could up to 70 U.S. dollars / barrel. In view of the OPEC production has been settled, the hot market speculation may turn to OPEC production and their degree of U.S. crude oil production changes.

domestic lithium carbonate price fluctuations in a narrow range this week. The weekend of industrial grade lithium carbonate price 121600 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week rose 0.08%; battery grade lithium carbonate price 131500 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week rose 0.13%; industrial grade lithium hydroxide price 156500 yuan / ton, up 0.10% compared with the beginning of the week.

market analysis

The domestic lithium carbonate price this week, a narrow range of fluctuation. Brine lithium carbonate, lithium industry and Qinghai CITIC Guoan to a small amount of production, prices steady, LandTek lithium industry the last batch of goods have to be delivered at the dealer, non cash outflow, although the factory price has increased, but the dealer maintained the original price. The ore of lithium carbonate, the market supply increase than before, more than 99.5% of industrial grade lithium carbonate demand, high-end price reduction, the actual turnover is low. As of this week, East China battery grade lithium carbonate mainstream price stabilized at 125000-130000 yuan / ton, the price of low-end 125000 yuan / ton, the market turnover is low; industrial grade lithium carbonate were the mainstream discussion at 115000-120000 yuan / ton, the market turnover is low.

Downstream of the new energy market situation

In December 29th, the Ministry of finance, Ministry of science and technology, development and Reform Commission four ministries issued “notice” on the adjustment of the application of new energy vehicles subsidy policy, clear notice will adjust the application of subsidy policy. The 2017-2018 amount of subsidies in 2016 will be based on the 40% year decline of 20%, down 2019-2020. January 1, 2017 started the implementation.

Market forecast

The subsidy policy is now four ministries have jointly signed, is expected to be released, the current main manufacturers orders are discharged to the end of the year, the spot supply, small and medium-sized factory has a few stock distribution mall still take the goods, is expected next week or lithium carbonate price will rebound slightly.

This month 55% powder ammonium market continued good momentum at the beginning of the week, the market price of 2054 yuan / ton, the weekend price of 1990 yuan / ton, down 3.14% year-on-year, down 5.37%.

quotations analysis

At present, domestic products: ammonium market high, small price changes, the price of 1950-2000 yuan / ton, low operating rate, about 40% or so, the limited supply of the market, to take pre orders, take the goods market, stock volume, downstream procurement initiative, part of the order price increase.

The industrial chain, the upstream raw material price of phosphate rock is relatively stable, the freight rose to varying degrees; sulfur price set out in a high price, strong devaluation, such as an increase of demand and operation trader are gradually picked up, the current price is 900 yuan, with a narrow range of fluctuation; ammonia is subject to the domestic and foreign market the improvement of its operating rate decline, environmental inspection and other reasons the price rose after the strong, the current Hubei ammonia storage acceptance price of 2700 yuan in the vicinity, forming a strong support to a compound fertilizer ammonium; downstream market rebound, increase of demand for ammonium, trading can be a.

Industry: inspection efforts to enhance environmental protection, production equipment operating rate low, inventory status, and transportation, a large number of enterprises are still unable to digest the short-term orders, for a large quantity, no sales pressure. The export market, the international market demand is generally late, temporary price stability, Chinese 55% grains FOB price 250-255 USD / ton.

Market forecast

A high cost of raw materials, ammonium support enhancement, and affected by the construction, and lower transport prices upward, and near the end of the year, traffic is blocked, the car and the train freight increases due to the high prices of downstream resistance to rejection, winter storage enthusiasm is poor, buying and selling of the two sides are still in a stalemate, is expected before the maintenance of stability the main.

[comment] Gade chemical network chemical industry at present, the domestic upstream raw material price trend in December acetic anhydride acetic acid rose, as of the end of the ex factory price of 3008.75 yuan / ton, up 7.91%, the upstream raw material market prices as a result of acetic acid methanol prices pull.

Acetic anhydride market price trend in Central China in December 30th, the market holding goods businesses reported 4900-5000 yuan / ton, the stock market is stable, prices temporarily stabilized acetic anhydride. Acetic anhydride market prices stable in East China, the venue to discuss the mainstream in 4800-4900 yuan / ton, the acetic anhydride stable supply, the temporary price stability. Acetic anhydride market prices stable in North China, the venue to discuss the mainstream 4800-4900 yuan / ton, the cash supply is stable, the recent floor prices stable acetic anhydride. The operation of acetic anhydride plant in Jilin Petrochemical Carbide factory, the factory price of 5300 yuan / ton, can go off. The Wang Long group operating capacity of 160 thousand tons of acetic anhydride stable device, output 200 tons, the factory price of 5000 yuan / ton, go off normal. The operation of the Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng acetic anhydride unit stable, output 100 tons, the factory price of 5400 yuan / ton.

The price of raw materials of methanol and acetic acid and acetic anhydride with recent prices, adequate market supply, the spot slightly loose, is expected in January will be slightly down or acetic anhydride market price, the price in 4500-4700 yuan / ton fluctuations.

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Chemical industry rebounded sharply, PP can return to the high point?

Abstract: at present, the domestic petrochemical PP device to maintain normal production, drawing ratio remained at 27%-30%. The demand side, just need to stabilize the market, the woven industry operating rate remained at around 65%, industry co operating rate of 64%, the operating rate of BOPP industry to maintain a good, but look at the PP upstream, midstream and downstream from the overall, from the current point of view is from the low to pick up the. See details []

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