As of December 27, 2016 week, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced the fund positions

As of December 27, 2016 week, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced the fund positions, WTI long 357096 hand positions, short positions 71857 hands, the net more than 265239 hand positions, compared to November increased significantly, with OPEC production agreement, the funds for the optimistic outlook of crude oil.

However, analysts for crude oil rebound height is not so optimistic.

Huang Liqiang pointed out that the production of frozen OPEC made it possible to realize the global rebalancing of crude oil, but subject to the U.S. shale oil potential supply increases, then the equilibrium time may be later than expected, so in 2017 the trend of crude oil price shocks tend to focus on the whole, between 50-60 dollars / barrel.

“The trend is still on the rise, but due to the production of good has been part of the cash, and oil prices will bring shale oil production and return oil producers hedging, so prices rise is limited, limited space to continue upward.” Sui Xiaoying said.

“Although the incremental demand may be dropped significantly compared with 2016 in 2017, but the release of supply in a vacuum period short, rebalancing process may be accelerated, expected prices is still rangebound trend in the overall price level in 2017, WTI central move, shock interval is 45-65 dollars / barrel.” Jin Xiao said.

He further said that the oil market will cause prices to accelerate the rebalancing of the supply of more risk sensitive, supply risk is concentrated in Libya and venezuela. Although Libya is in production, but the domestic political instability still exist. In addition, the stability of the Venezuelan economy collapse of its oil output can also pose a risk. If any one of them the risk of the outbreak, then WTI prices could up to 70 U.S. dollars / barrel. In view of the OPEC production has been settled, the hot market speculation may turn to OPEC production and their degree of U.S. crude oil production changes.