According to the latest customs data, the cumulative export of all kinds of chemical fertilizers increased significantly from January to February, with the growth rates of urea and compound fertilizers reaching about 400% and 900% respectively. Most notable is potassium sulfate. The same growth rate of 1700% in January has shocked the chin, and the data in February reached an astonishing 7000%. Exports from January to February have far exceeded the total volume of 2018.

Comments: Since this year, no export tariffs have been imposed on chemical fertilizers. Among them, export tariffs on potassium fertilizers have cancelled the quantitative pricing policy, which is more affected by the benefits. Relevant data show that the mainstream factory price of potassium sulfate in China has a higher price advantage than that in overseas markets. Authorities predict that China’s potassium sulphate exports will exceed 150,000 tons in the first quarter, and by this estimate, the same-rate growth in March will be more than 300 times incredible. Despite the seemingly low absolute quantity, the estimated annual export volume of about 600,000 tons is considerable for the apparent consumption of about 4 million tons of potassium sulfate worldwide.

Among A-share companies, Guannong (600251) holds 20.3% of the investment in Xinjiang Lop Nur Potassium Salt, which has an annual production line of 1.2 million tons of potassium sulfate. The total production capacity of potassium sulfate reaches 160 tons, making it the largest and most advanced potassium sulfate fertilizer base in the world. The company’s main profit growth came from China Investment Potassium. CITIC Guoan (000839) and Sirte (002538) also have certain potassium sulfate production capacity.

The State Council’s Security Committee recently issued an urgent notice calling for a comprehensive investigation and remediation of potential safety hazards of dangerous chemicals. The explosion accident of Jiangsu Xiangshui Tianjiayi Chemical Co., Ltd. has once again sounded an alarm for the whole chemical market, especially for the production of dangerous chemicals.

The methanol market has always been the focus of dangerous chemicals inspection. “As far as methanol is concerned, the production enterprises in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia have been affected to some extent. More than 10 methanol production enterprises in Shanxi are facing upstream and downstream safety checks, and the supply of methanol will shrink significantly in the short term.” Yu Qiansen, an analyst at Zhaojin Futures, said that by analogy to Hebei, Shandong and other regions, a large number of coking enterprises are facing a new round of inspection and rectification, and production may continue to shrink on the basis of spring maintenance.

For the eastern market, the impact of this safety inspection on methanol supply is obviously greater. “If transport is coupled with more inspection efforts, the eastern region will face a situation of methanol shortage in supply and demand. In addition, the safety inspection will affect a small number of small and medium-sized methanol users, mainly methanol to olefins, MTBE, formaldehyde in Jiangsu and Shandong. Most enterprises are large-scale security clearance enterprises, only some formaldehyde and other downstream will be affected. In Qiansen’s view, there have been many major accidents in the methanol market. In this inspection, the transportation of methanol will face more stringent restrictions than before.

In the view of Wang Pu, an analyst at Jin Lianchuang, the main impact on the methanol market is supply, demand and warehousing. “At present, the upper and middle reaches have less impact, because the upper reaches are mostly large devices and most of them comply with the regulations; in the lower reaches, Yancheng area is mostly downstream enterprises such as pesticides and pharmaceuticals, and in the vicinity are Shuyang and Linyi formaldehyde enterprises. This event may have an impact on formaldehyde demand, and Lianyungang area may not be affected much. From the warehousing point of view, more likely to affect warehousing enterprises such as incomplete procedures, short-term or faster delivery speed. Wang Pu said.

Futures Daily reporter learned that not only the security inspection “hurricane”, but also the recent “battle for environmental protection” continued to increase the code. Coking coal and coke enterprises limited production, but also affected the methanol market.

It is understood that 30% of methanol enterprises in China still use coke oven gas to produce methanol, most of which are concentrated in Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong and Jiangsu areas. Limited output of coke and Coke will result in insufficient output of coke oven tail gas. Except Shanxi, methanol consumption is large in the above-mentioned areas. The sharp reduction of supply will lead to the shortage of methanol supply.

“Current coal production restrictions are beneficial to methanol as a whole. Because of the reduction of coal supply, the cost of methanol is rising.” Wang Pu said that 70% of methanol in China is coal-based methanol. The rise of coal cost will be transmitted to the downstream market through the rise of methanol price, especially to the northwest methanol market in Lido. In the later period, the price gap between East and west of methanol market may narrow.

At present, the main factors affecting the methanol market are spring inspection in the Mainland, high inventory in ports and import shrinkage in April. “For the methanol industry chain, if security is upgraded, transportation from northwest to East will be severely restricted. Under the influence of the start-up of Jiutai methanol-to-olefin plant and the delayed maintenance of Yan’an energy methanol-to-olefin plant, the quantity of methanol that can be exported in Northwest China has decreased, combined with the closure of arbitrage between the two places, or the shortage of methanol supply in eastern China, resulting in a rapid decline in inventory. Yu said.

In addition, it is noteworthy that the spring overhaul in the main inland production areas is imminent, and some devices have begun to be overhauled, resulting in a reduction in supply. The safety inspection upgrade will magnify the maintenance effect.

In his view, methanol prices have been relatively low, crude oil continues to be strong, cost support for the entire energy-based industrial chain has formed, methanol is expected to take this opportunity to form a new round of growth.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries announced this week that it would cancel its planned April meeting and postpone its decision to June on whether to stick to the 1.2 million barrel/day reduction plan.

Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said in a report released Wednesday that the decision to wait for the conventionally scheduled meeting further highlighted Saudi Arabia’s determination to continue with planned production cuts and ignore American noise.

Croft wrote that Khalidal-Falih, Saudi oil minister, recently said that the rebalancing target of supply and demand was far from being achieved, suggesting that production would continue to be cut for the rest of the year. Croft recently shared her views on the oil market in Barron’s Energy Roundtable.

Companies in OPEC oil-producing countries and Russia, the leading non-OPEC oil-producing country, may not be happy about limiting production, but political benefits may benefit in the short term in terms of profits. Croft said that considering Russian President Vladimir Putin was the ultimate decision maker, Putin continued to believe that cooperation with OPEC could not only increase revenue, but also enhance its global status, so Putin would ultimately choose to maintain this arrangement and maintain the leading position.

The fragile output of Venezuela, a member of OPEC, and the risks facing Iranian production also favour oil prices.

Demand may grow rapidly as oil inventories decrease. Michael Tran, commodity strategist at Canadian Capital Markets, wrote in a report released Wednesday that domestic aviation fuel demand in the United States is growing at the fastest pace in decades. Tran said the analysis showed that the elasticity of aircraft fuel demand to fuel prices was small, because it had promised to fly flights without being affected by lower passenger rates. New aircraft sales and delivery, as well as infrastructure improvements in the Asia-Pacific region, will also increase aviation fuel demand.

Martijn Rats, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, said in a report released Tuesday that insufficient supply in the third quarter suggested Brent crude could rise to $75 a barrel. He estimates a supply gap of 500,000 barrels per day in the second quarter, followed by a 60% rise to 800,000 barrels per day in the third quarter. At the same time, oil demand has been robust, Rats said. The International Energy Agency predicted in January that global oil demand would grow by 1.5 million barrels a day this year. Rats expects an increase of 1.3 million barrels a day, down from previous years, but in contrast to fears of a sharp slowdown in growth at the end of last year.

He said CERAWeek, a large oil and gas conference in Houston in mid-March, changed his view. Rats said the impact of some upside risks may be greater than previously expected. Rats said the most worrying slowdown in oil demand seemed less severe. According to his price target, Brent crude oil may rise another 10%.

Since March, copper prices have shown an interval fluctuation trend. The main supporting factors are tight supply expectations, and the main suppressing factors are inventory accumulation and insufficient demand highlights. Macroscopically, China’s economy is still under downward pressure, but with the implementation of the tax and fee reduction policy, it should not be overly pessimistic in the long run. In the short run, we still need to pay attention to the impact of the March Fed interest rate meeting and the UK’s delisting on financial markets. On the supply and demand side, TC continues to decline, suggesting that copper concentrate supply is tight, demand side performance is relatively stable, and the impact on copper price is neutral. Generally speaking, the impact of supply and demand on copper price is slightly more neutral, but we need to pay attention to the impact of macro factors.

Accumulation of macro-uncertainties

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the annual growth rate of industrial added value in the first two months or more dropped by 0.4 percentage points compared with December 2018, but the annual growth rate of national fixed assets investment and national real estate development investment both rebounded. Thus, downward pressure still exists in the economy. In this context, Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council proposed to reduce VAT on April 1 and social security premium rate on May 1 to reduce the burden on enterprises. In the short run, the price of long-term contracts will be under pressure, but in the long run, it will help to improve the profits of enterprises and promote consumption. China and the United States may reach a trade agreement in mid-early April, which is expected to be more optimistic, but we still need to be vigilant about the variables.

In the international situation, the Federal Reserve held a meeting on March 20 to keep the target of the federal funds rate unchanged. Therefore, the impact on copper price is relatively small. In addition, with the approaching date of March 29, the situation of Britain’s exit from Europe is facing greater uncertainty, and we need to be alert to the risk that the pound will weaken and the dollar will strengthen passively.

Increased expectations of tight supply

The TC of copper concentrate continued to decline after the Spring Festival due to frequent interference at the mine end and the introduction of domestic smelting capacity. In February, the crude refining cost of copper smelters fell to $79.5 per ton, which has fallen below the $80.8 per ton long copper concentrate list in 2019. The average TC price of copper concentrate imported last week was US$72.5 per ton, continuing the trend of decline, reflecting the tight supply situation at the end of the mine, which has strong support for copper prices. According to the supply of refined copper, the output of refined copper in China was 1.34 million tons in the first two months of 2019, and the cumulative growth rate fell to 6.3% year on year. At the same time, the second quarter will usher in the peak of domestic smelters’overhaul, mainly Xiangguang Copper and Jinlong Copper. It is expected that the output of refined copper will be seriously affected and the futures price will be boosted to a certain extent.

At present, the market is concerned about inventory accumulation. Due to the centralized delivery of LME copper, LME copper stocks increased by about 747,000 tons on Thursday and Friday, while domestic stocks continued to climb. As of March 19, the number of warehouses in the previous period had exceeded the same period in 2018, reaching about 175,500 tons, and social stocks were also increasing. Thus, although the medium and long-term supply is expected to be tight, the short-term inventory is relatively abundant to provide security for supply. Later, if the inflection point of inventory appears, the pressure on copper prices will also be weakened.

Relatively stable demand

Last week, copper rod market orders were general and end cable customers purchased on demand; copper pipe enterprises had stable production and stable increase in market orders, but small-scale production and processing enterprises were still not optimistic; copper strip market orders were stable and better, but under the downward pressure of the economy, confidence in the future was insufficient; copper rod market start-up rate was stable, and the order situation was general.

According to SMM survey, the average start-up rate of copper enterprises in February was 48.75%, which was 19.2 percentage points lower than the previous year, down 1.69 percentage points. It is estimated that the average start-up rate of copper materials in March is 77.38%. In the first two months of 2019, China’s copper output was 2.11 million tons, with a cumulative growth rate of 14.6% year on year; in the first two months, China’s air-conditioning output was 27.885 million units, still at a relatively high level, with a cumulative increase of 6.2% year on year; due to the peak production season, air-conditioning output is expected to rebound significantly in March. Overall, demand is relatively flat, and the impact on copper price is neutral.

In summary, there is a conflict between tight supply expectation and rapid inventory growth and insufficient demand highlights in the current market. Later, the tight supply situation at the end of the mine will gradually transfer to the middle and lower reaches, and the peak of smelter overhaul will be approaching. The production of refined copper will be affected or the supply side will be strongly supported. On the demand side, the market’s pessimistic expectations are basically reflected on the market. With the support of domestic fiscal policy, we should not be too pessimistic. Therefore, it is suggested to be cautious and optimistic about copper prices. The main force of Shanghai copper is temporarily concerned about the pressure at the 50,000 yuan/ton integer level above, so it is not advisable to catch up with the increase.

In this year, pollution control has become a hot spot again. The report calls for the continuous promotion of pollution prevention and control, and consolidation and expansion of the achievements of the Blue Sky Defense War. It is required that this year’s emissions of sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides should be reduced by 3%. Continuous efforts should be made to tackle air pollution in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and its surrounding areas, the Yangtze River Delta and the Fenwei Plain, and to strengthen the control of industrial, coal-fired and motor vehicle pollution sources. To strengthen the prevention and control of water and soil pollution, this year’s chemical oxygen demand and ammonia nitrogen emissions will decrease by 2%.

Since the pilot project in Hebei Province at the end of 2015, the environmental storm has lasted for more than three years, with great efforts and wide scope. In 2017, it has achieved full coverage of 31 provinces in the country; in 2018, more than 200 inspection teams were dispatched to carry out pull-net inspection, especially for the “scattered and dirty” enterprises that are not in place, the obsolete coal-fired boilers, the illegal production of non-pollution treatment facilities, excessive emissions and other issues found together and handed over publicly. In 2019, Li Ganjie, Minister of Ecological Environment, said that it would take four years for China to complete the second round of central ecological environment protection supervision and “look back”.

With the increasing pressure of environmental protection, the impact on compound fertilizer is also growing. As we all know, the pollution of compound fertilizer is mainly wastewater, dust, air pollution, and so on. Some enterprises that use phosphate ore as raw material also have the problem of stacking and disposal of phosphogypsum. The dechlorination process also involves hydrochloric acid. Beginning in 2016, with the increasing frequency of environmental protection inspection, the phenomenon of production restriction and parking of compound fertilizer plants has increased. For those devices that fail to meet the standards, they are required to rectify and upgrade environmental protection equipment. For those devices that are polluted heavily, they are required to relocate and enter industrial parks on the edges of Taihu Lake and Yangtze River Basin. According to incomplete statistics, in 2018, the capacity of the main enterprises with abnormal production and parking for more than three months has exceeded 3 million tons.

Compound fertilizer has a large production capacity, but its effective utilization rate is low. With the advancement of environmental protection, it is conducive to quickening the withdrawal of backward production capacity, accelerating the process of industry shuffling, and thus promoting the healthy development of the compound fertilizer industry.