On March 12, the PX Commodity Index was 72.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 29.69% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 58.07% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant has been running steadily. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant has started 50% of its operation. Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant has started a line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant has been overhauled. Other units have been running steadily for the time being. The domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal. The market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On March 12, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia rose by $1/ton. The closing price was $1100-1102/ton FOB in Korea and $1119-1121/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of domestic imports are needed. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on domestic market price of p-xylene, and the price of p-xylene in the market fluctuates.

On March 12, the price of WTI crude oil in April rose to $56.87 per barrel, an increase of $0.08. Brent crude oil in May rose to $66.67 per barrel, an increase of $0.09. The price of crude oil rose slightly, which had little effect on the price of downstream petrochemical products, while the price of paraxylene was stable. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA prices declined on the 13th. The average price of East China bid was raised near 6600-6700 yuan/ton. As of the 13th day, domestic PTA start-up rate was about 84%, polyester industry start-up rate was about 80%, downstream production and sales rate increased, but PTA market prices were lower, and it is expected that the price of PX market will remain volatile in the later period.

Urea rose in March, and if it did, take a large factory in Shandong Province as an example. On February 22, the quotation was once as low as 1820 yuan/ton, and on March 10, it started to rise. The quotation lasted from 1910 to 1930 yuan/ton. Large orders and outsourcing can start to talk about 20 to 40 yuan/ton. It can be said that the price of urea is really rising, rising is skewed!

On March 7, the ex-factory quotation of a large factory in Hebei rose to 1920 yuan/ton, but the previous afternoon the factory was still signing orders at a level far below that price. When the quotation of a factory in Shaanxi Province rose to 1823 yuan/ton on March 7, the quantity of new orders was also very small, but at present, the quotation has reached 1893 yuan/ton, the contrast is obvious.

It can be seen that the urea price increase is true, but the porcelain is not so solid, that is, there is a certain gap between the quotation and the actual transaction. Let’s take a closer look at the reasons for this price increase.

First, the delayed release of agricultural demand is slightly concentrated. Our long-awaited agricultural demand, which was delayed by the snowy and rainy weather in February, was finally released. This is the biggest driving force behind the price increase. It is known that Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu and Anhui all have a part of the end-sweeping agricultural demand for agricultural distributors to replenish, so the urea ex-factory quotation in the main producing areas increased by 60-90 yuan/ton.

Secondly, the demand of industrial plywood enterprises, power enterprises, especially compound fertilizer enterprises is only slightly restrained by the environmental pressure of the two sessions, and there is no obvious shortcoming. For example, as of March 8, the average operating rate of compound mast plants in China has decreased by only one percentage point per week.

Thirdly, the expected production restriction of urea enterprises in Shandong, Shanxi and other places is not obvious, but it is over-exaggerated again, which can not be said, that is, the production restriction plus the delay of the resumption time of gas head urea enterprises, and then the delayed agricultural demand, has brought about the sharp rise in urea prices. Looking carefully, the daily output of two large urea enterprises in Shandong Province has decreased slightly. A small urea enterprise has stopped production and maintenance for half a month since March 1, and the urea enterprises in Lianghe River are basically full. However, in order to adapt to the situation of differentiated urea promoted by the landlords in Northeast China, they also appropriately open more differentiated urea. Naturally, the price of ordinary urea goes up, which is also conducive to the price of differentiated urea going up. During the period of the game, the price of natural gas may rise. The preliminary news is that the result of the game between gas suppliers and gas-head urea enterprises may rise, but the increase may not be too large. Of course, during the game, the time for gas-head urea enterprises to resume production has been delayed again and again. The gas companies in Inner Mongolia and Mongolia opened one after another from 9 to 12 March, and the gas companies in Ningxia and Xinjiang are in full swing. Head urea enterprises may not resume production until the end of March. Taking advantage of daily urea production as expected in our earlier period and not increased to a controllable level, this price increase of urea is feasible and can be sustained slightly.

Then, let’s see why the price increase is skewed when it goes up.

Previously, we also anticipated that the urea price increase is just in need. First, the low price in the early period awaits to be issued, and the difference between land sales and export price increases. But it is not a long-term solution. It is true that the urea gap is not so large. In the long run, the supply will increase significantly sooner or later, and the downstream will soon be restless, fearing that it will become the last one to take over the market. After a slightly larger increase, this kind of worry will arise. It is more obvious that the factory price of most urea enterprises is 150-200 yuan/ton higher than the cost. It can be seen that the price increase is not a skewed increase, but a probable result after the price increase.

Finally, we should continue to operate cautiously. When urea prices rise, don’t be too aggressive. When urea prices fall, don’t wait to hit the bottom price all the time. Timely entry is the best policy.

According to data released by the European Commission on 8 July, from July 25, 2018 to early March, 2019, the EU imported 7.9 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas from the United States, a substantial increase of 181% over the same period last year.

Since 2019, LNG from the United States has accounted for 12.6% of all imports of LNG from the European Union, making the United States the third largest source of LNG from the European Union, the European Commission said.

The European Commission said that if market conditions permit and prices are reasonable, the EU is also ready to continue to expand imports and build a number of liquefied natural gas infrastructure for this purpose. The two sides will also hold the first EU-US Energy Commission High Level Forum in Brussels on May 2.

On July 25, 2018, the European Union and the United States agreed to negotiate to reduce trade barriers, ease trade frictions and suspend new tariffs. U.S. President Trump held talks with visiting European Commission President Juncker at the White House on bilateral economic and trade issues, and held a joint press conference after the talks. The two sides expressed their intention to strengthen strategic cooperation in the field of energy. One of the specific measures is to import more liquefied natural gas from the United States by the European Union.

Russian “Bulletin” website on March 5, the United States Congress announced at the end of February “on the security of the United States from Kremlin aggression” (DASKA), the bill is a supplement to the “Punishment Against the United States Enemy Act” (CAATSA) issued in 2017.

According to the new law, the United States can impose sanctions on legal persons involved in new crude oil exploitation projects in Russia. The direct target of sanctions mentioned in the field of natural gas is the LNG projects implemented by Russia abroad.

However, the United States Industrial Safety Agency (BIS) issued an executive decree in 2014, stipulating that condensate gas is also included in the concept of “crude oil”, so related areas are also included in the sanctions.

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on March 8, China exported 657,000 tons of coal in February, an increase of 189,000 tons, an increase of 40.4%, and an increase of 55,000 tons, an increase of 9.1%.

Coal exports in February amounted to $97.7 million, an increase of 61.8% over the previous year, and a decrease of 11.5% over the previous year. Based on this, the unit export price is estimated to be 148.7 US dollars per ton, down by 34.7 US dollars per ton annually and up by 19.6 US dollars per ton year on year.

From January to February 2019, China exported 1.259 million tons of coal, an increase of 68.1% over the same period last year; the cumulative export amount was US$208.1 million, an increase of 77.0% over the same period last year.