POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
In the short-term good news, aluminum ingot stocks high fundamentals, the Shanghai aluminum continued callback. With the new production in January and the resumption of production news one after another, superimposed seasonal off-season consumption, aluminum stocks may continue to accumulate, aluminum prices will decline further.
Some of the production capacity has been put into operation conditions
According to the current price of alumina 2900 yuan / ton, the weighted average cost of electrolytic aluminum industry in 14000-15000 yuan / ton. According to Aladdin’s research, with the continuous replacement of indicators, 2.79 million tons of construction-in-production capacity will be put into operation in 2017, and it is estimated that in the first quarter of 2018, China will start production of 1.402 million tons of electrolytic aluminum. The new production capacity will mainly focus on Inner Mongolia and Guangxi. As the index replacement has been completed, and the market does not appear new to capacity-building policies, electrolytic aluminum cost has become the key factor restricting the enthusiasm of enterprises.
Electrolytic aluminum costs or continue to decline
Specific analysis, since January, the cost of alumina has fallen below 3,000 yuan / ton mark, the shortage of natural gas in Shanxi alleviate the shortage of natural gas in the region due to the resumption of production of alumina enterprises, alumina supply will continue to increase, Taking into account the price continued to fall or trigger upstream support plate, alumina is expected to hover around 2,900 yuan / ton.
At present, the anode carbon block oscillates at a high level, but the demand is shrinking and the market turnover is subdued. It is understood that Weiqiao prebaked anode purchase price in January is still negotiable, Weiqiao proposed a drop of 150 yuan / ton, carbon enterprises have not yet accepted. Therefore, in general, the cost of electrolytic aluminum may not be a limiting factor in the capacity of electrolytic aluminum.
Domestic aluminum ingot inventories are still at record highs
January 4, according to statistics, China’s 12 areas of aluminum ingot inventories increased 25,800 to 1,697,600 tons, the increase in inventories is mainly reflected in the Wuxi area. According to statistics, the inventories of seven domestic aluminum ingots totaled 1.774 million tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last Thursday. Domestic aluminum ingot social stock was 1.757 million tons, an increase of 10 thousand tons. With the first quarter of new production capacity and production gradually put into operation as well as the northern rain and snow led to the arrival of blocked aluminum ingot, aluminum ingot inventories continued to record highs in the first quarter is difficult to alleviate the pressure on the stock.
POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
Short-term domestic market as a whole gloom than the trading atmosphere, and LME base metals boosted by the weak dollar strengthened overall. Operationally, it is proposed to wait for the news of the dollar to be gradually digested, and find the opportunity to be short when the market returns to the fundamentals. It is recommended to focus on Shanghai aluminum 15000-15300 yuan / tonne pressure bit. Risks point is the policy to cut production, electrolytic aluminum losses led to increased concentration led to reduced aluminum production, cross-market capital flows into the market substantially.
National Development and Reform Commission recently released data show that in November, the chemical industry added value increased by 2.8%, the growth rate down 2.8 percentage points year on year. Among the major chemical products, the output of ethylene increased by 6.7% over the same period of last year; the output of primary form of plastic, synthetic rubber and synthetic fiber increased by 2%, 16.2% and 4.5% respectively; the output of caustic soda dropped 0.8% and that of soda ash increased 7% %, Of which nitrogen fertilizer increased 3.4%, phosphate fertilizer and potassium fertilizer decreased 4.6% and 1.4% respectively; pesticide production decreased 5.2%; rubber tire casing increased 3.5%; calcium carbide output decreased 5.6%.
From January to November, the added value of the chemical industry increased by 3.7% from the same period of last year, with the growth rate down 4.4 ppt YoY. Among the main products, ethylene production was 16.58 million tons, an increase of 1.9%. The primary form of plastic output 78.18 million tons, an increase of 4.9%; synthetic rubber production 536 tons, an increase of 3.8%; synthetic fiber output of 41.33 million tons, an increase of 2.9%. The output of caustic soda was 30.91 million tons, an increase of 2.5%. The output of soda ash was 24.45 million tons, an increase of 5.2%. Fertilizer output was 57.51 million tons, down 4%. Among them, nitrogen fertilizer production dropped 7.3%, while phosphate and potassium fertilizers increased 0.8% and 3.7% respectively. Pesticide production dropped 5.3%. Rubber tire production 86,956,600 tires, an increase of 6.3%. Calcium carbide output 22.7 million tons, down 0.4%.
Among the key chemical products monitored, the prices of some products went up from the previous month. In November, the average price of caustic soda (caustic soda) was 4550 yuan / ton, down 0.2% over the previous month and up 35.8% over the same period of last year; soda ash was 2540 yuan / ton, up 8.1% from the previous month and up 42.7% over the same period of last year. Urea 1750 yuan / ton, down 1.7% from the previous month, up 25%; domestic DAP 2700 yuan / ton, up 8% from the previous month, up 1.5%. Calcium carbide 3070 yuan / ton, down 4.1% from the previous month, up 17.6%.
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POLYVINYL ALCOHOL FIBER |
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Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak said in a speech on Friday (December 22) that Russia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will smoothly and smoothly withdraw from the production reduction agreement and may implement another type of limited production Measures to ensure that the oil market will not be re-oversupplied after the production cut-off expires.
Novak said: “Everyone in the market wants to see a return to equilibrium.”
OPEC and Russia and other non-OPEC oil producing countries have extended the production cut agreement to the end of 2018, but investors are worried that crude oil output will be bounded after the cut-off agreement expires. Therefore, it is the focus of attention whether an order of exit agreement can be reached.
On the other hand, since the beginning of this year, Russia and Saudi Arabia have significantly enhanced the bilateral relations between the two countries and King Salman of Saudi Arabia has also conducted a large-scale political and commercial visit to Moscow. Crude oil has always been the focus of business between the two countries, as crude oil exports are an important source of revenue for both countries.
On Thursday, King Salman of Saudi Arabia and Russian President Putin held a conference call during which both parties agreed to continue to strengthen cooperation to jointly stabilize the global oil and gas market.
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