I. Trend analysis

As shown in the chart above, the copper market price on August 14 was 46648.33 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous trading day, down 3.14% from the beginning of the year and down 4.35% from the same period last year, according to the data of business associations.

II. Market Analysis

Recent copper price shocks are mainly narrow. Basically, on the supply side, copper supply continues to be tight. Jianeng’s Zambian company closed two copper mines. If miners do not invest more capital, there will be a shortfall of 1 million tons in 2024 and about 4 million tons in 2028. On the demand side, downstream start-up data show that household appliances orders are weakening. From January to June, the cumulative value of investment in power grid capital construction was 164.4 billion yuan, a cumulative decrease of 19.3% over the same period of last year.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

In summary, the copper analysts of the non-ferrous branch of the business association believe that the short-term copper prices or shocks are strong, supported by the import ban on scrap copper in the case of weak supply and demand.

On August 13, the fluorite commodity index was 108.55, down 0.44 points from yesterday, down 14.86% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 120.59% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite price trend slightly declined, the average domestic fluorite price was 3093.75 yuan/ton on the 13th day, the recent domestic fluorite plant started normally, the mine and flotation plant started normally, the supply of fluorite in the field was sufficient, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream was lower recently. For the fluorite market purchasing on demand, the price of fluorite market went along. The situation is declining. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is normal, terminal downstream receipt is poor, resulting in a decline in market prices. As of the 13th day, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2800-3100 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiations in Fujian was 2900-3300 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2900-3200 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2900-3300 yuan/ton, and the price trend of fluorite dropped.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite maintained a low trend. As of the 13th day, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 11 430 yuan/ton. The decline of the market price of hydrofluoric acid has a negative impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plants is general, the demand for fluorite has weakened, and the price of fluorite has slightly decreased. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, the production enterprise device is stable, but the pressure of goods is too high, inventory expansion appears to a certain extent, the enterprise aims to make profits to deliver goods. The downstream weakness continues, the peak season of refrigerants has passed, and demand has only decreased but not increased. The price of domestic large enterprises has maintained the level of 17,000-18,000 yuan/ton. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. However, the price of on-site transactions does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. At the end of the peak season, the demand downstream of the terminal decreases but does not increase. The price affected by the fluorite market is slightly lower.

Overall, the downstream industry is slightly lower, coupled with sufficient supply of fluorite market, the downstream refrigerant industry demand is not good, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the price of fluorite market may be slightly lower.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations, the PC market in China showed a good overall trend in early August. As of August 12, the average price quoted by domestic producers and traders for Bayer 2805 was about 18833.33 yuan/ton, almost unchanged from the beginning of the week.

II. Cause Analysis

PC upstream bisphenol A market in early August continued last month’s light trend, unable to rise prices down. On-site purchasing intentions are weak and trading is difficult. Downstream factories are just in need of purchasing, and the operators have a wait-and-see mentality and are not willing to operate. It is expected that the domestic bisphenol A market will be weaker in the near future, which will not support the domestic PC cost. At present, the domestic PC is in the peak period of maintenance, and is affected by typhoon, which affects the start-up rate of the factory. The typhoon also temporarily closed the port, greatly delaying the arrival of imported goods. Affected by this, domestic supply is tighter, pushing up spot PC prices, and some brands have risen. Although the mindset of the traders is still more cautious and demand has not improved, in the short run, the willingness of the factories and traders to reserve their bid. In the second week of August, the domestic PC spot price shocks and calls back.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business PC analysts believe that recent domestic PC upstream bisphenol A continued last month’s weakness, prices continued to fall, dragging PC cost. The operating rate of domestic PC production units and the arrival rate of imported cargo shipping are affected by typhoon, and the shortage of cargo sources has boosted the spot price of PC. The improvement of downstream demand is limited, and the operation of stock purchase is cautious. Businessmen are willing to bid actively. It is expected that there will still be a buoyant atmosphere in the near future. PC may adjust the shock upward. It is suggested that close attention be paid to the arrival of major ports.

According to Bloomberg on August 8, a Saudi official said that as oil prices fell to a seven-month low, Saudi Arabia had called other oil producers to discuss possible countermeasures.

The official, who declined to be named, said Saudi Arabia would not tolerate any further decline in oil prices and was considering all options, but he did not say what specific measures were being discussed.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, has cut its oil production beyond what OPEC has agreed with its allies outside the organization.

Oil has been involved in the collapse of global markets caused by international trade tensions, which has raised concerns that it will evolve into a currency war. The worsening economic situation prompted interest rate cuts in New Zealand, India and Thailand this week, amid fears that the economy might fall into recession.

West Texas Intermediate futures rebounded Thursday in Saudi Arabia after falling 4.7% Wednesday. At 1:07 p.m. Singapore time, US benchmark crude oil prices rose 3.2% to $52.72 a barrel.

Helima Croft, chief commodity strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said the meeting planned to take place in Abu Dhabi within a week starting September 9 would be crucial for OPEC + leaders, especially Saudi and Russian energy ministers, because they needed to After the sharp fall in oil prices, relevant signals were sent on production issues.

“It’s been a tough week for oil producers,” Croft said. I don’t think they are complacent about this initiative. I can imagine that Secretary-General Barkindo was having a very intense conversation when he was on the phone with Harid Falkh and Alexander Nowak.

Last week (July 29 – August 2) domestic demand continued to decline, urea market prices continued to fall. On August 5, China’s urea wholesale price index (CNPI) was 1957.31 points, down 13.12 points annually, or 0.67%. It rose 24.31 points, or 1.26% year-on-year, or 94.06 points, or 5.05% in the bi-base period.

On August 5, China’s urea retail price index (CNRI) was 2076.22 points, down 15.09 points, or 0.72%, up 22.80 points, or 1.11%, from a year earlier, and up 171.26 points, or 8.99%, in the bi-base period.

On August 5, China’s Urea Export Price Index (CNEI) was 1864.62 points, up 1.13 points annually, or 0.06%; 13.87 points, or 0.75%; and 5.62 points, or 0.30%, in the bi-base period.

Supply situation

Last week, some domestic urea overhaul enterprises stopped, and the start-up rate decreased. The overall start-up rate of domestic urea enterprises dropped to about 70%, among which the start-up rate of coal enterprises fell to about 69%, and that of gas enterprises rose to about 74%. In terms of raw materials, the domestic coal market was stable and prices were stable last week, while natural gas market prices rose last week.

Demand situation

In agriculture, domestic demand for agriculture has declined. On the industrial side, the new fertilizer sheet of domestic compound fertilizer enterprises in autumn has basically ended, the pressure of environmental protection is still sustained, the construction of compound fertilizer and rubber sheet plants remains low, and the demand for urea is weak. Internationally, there is no obvious demand support in the international market after the labeling.

international market

Last week, when India’s bidding period ended, the international market was well supplied and prices fell. Among them, the black sea small particle urea FOB price has dropped 8 US dollars/ton compared with the low and high-end prices, which is 255-257 US dollars/ton; the Baltic small particle urea FOB low-end price has fallen 5 US dollars/ton, the high-end price has fallen 1 US dollars/ton, which is 260-265 US dollars/ton; the Middle East small particle urea FOB price has remained stable, which is 275 US dollars/ton.- US$280 per ton; China’s FOB price of small granular urea has fallen by US$6 per ton from the low-end price and US$4 per ton from the high-end price to US$275-278 per ton.

Domestic situation

Last week, urea prices in various regions of the country fell mainly on a weekly basis. Among them, the prices of Hebei, Jiangsu, Anhui, Fujian, Shandong, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Sichuan, Shaanxi, Gansu and Xinjiang fell by 3.3-50 yuan/ton, while those of Hebei and Yunnan rose by 3.1 yuan/ton and 29 yuan/ton respectively, while those of the rest of the region remained stable.

Future Market Forecast

At present, domestic agricultural fertilizer has entered the end stage, demand has been reduced; in industry, environmental protection has maintained a high pressure, fertilizer demand has basically released in autumn, compound fertilizer enterprises are mainly on the lookout, the start-up rate is difficult to rise, and the overall demand is weak. On the export side, the international market is oversupply, prices are falling, and domestic supply opportunities are small. In summary, it is expected that urea prices will keep a downward trend in the near future, and attention should be paid to the autumn fertilizer market sales.