On January 23, the first International Symposium on “Crossing the Oil Age” was held in Beijing. The preliminary report on the implementation of total petroleum consumption control plan and policy research (hereinafter referred to as “the report”) issued at the symposium pointed out that, with the promotion of clean energy, low carbon, safe, efficient transformation and high-quality economic development, China’s total petroleum consumption could reach a peak of 720 million yuan in 2025. Tons.

This will help to achieve the goal of global temperature control of less than 2 degrees Celsius by 2050.

The meeting was sponsored by China EV 100 and China Petroleum Consumption Total Control Program and Policy Research Group (hereinafter referred to as the Oil Control Research Project). The meeting focused on the oil control path, situation analysis of peak oil consumption in China, and the real cost of oil.

China has become the world’s second largest oil consumer and the largest oil importer. Domestic oil consumption and imports are growing steadily.

According to the data of “Development Report of Oil and Gas Industry at Home and Abroad in 2017″ (hereinafter referred to as “Report”) issued by the Economic and Technological Research Institute of China Petroleum Group, China’s apparent crude oil consumption in 2017 is 610 million tons. ​

The report points out that China’s total petroleum consumption control work focuses on the transportation and petrochemical industries. In 2017, China’s transportation oil accounted for more than half of its oil consumption, and petrochemical oil accounted for more than 15%.

The report predicts that transportation oil consumption will peak between 2023 and 2025. We should actively promote the optimization of transportation structure, accelerate the popularization of new energy vehicles, and formulate a timetable and road map for the exit of traditional fuel vehicles.

Chen Qingtai, former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that the development of electric vehicles will reduce the demand for oil in the transportation industry. The coordinated development of the automobile revolution and the energy revolution will also greatly improve the energy structure.

“Making the top-level design and timetable of the scientifically proven development strategy of electric vehicles is to lead China’s economy across the”bullnose”of the oil era. Chen Qingtai said.

The report points out that under the circumstances of low self-sufficiency and huge supply gap of some petrochemical products, the capacity scale of the chemical industry should be reasonably controlled and the regeneration of resources should be encouraged.

The most typical way to promote resource regeneration is to recycle plastic products. The report shows that 0.85 tons of plastic raw materials can be obtained for every ton of waste plastics recovered, which is equivalent to saving 1 ton of oil.

Oil consumption is expected to peak in 2030, according to the 2007 edition of World and China Energy Outlook 2050 released by the Institute of Economic and Technological Research of China Petroleum Group. According to the forecast, the proportion of non-fossil energy in China will be about 35% in 2050, which will change from the situation of “one coal is dominant” to that of coal, oil and gas and non-fossil energy.

According to BP Energy Outlook, by 2040, oil, natural gas, coal and non-fossil energy will each account for one fourth of the world’s energy resources.

Fu Chengyu, chairman of the core group of the Oil Control Research Project and former chairman of Sinopec, said that since the Paris Accord set the goal of net zero greenhouse gas emissions in the second half of this century, many countries have accelerated the transformation from fossil energy to low carbon energy.

In view of the transformation of energy system to clean energy, Zhang Yuqing, former deputy director of the State Energy Administration, said, “The direction of energy development at the Nineteenth National Congress is to build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient modern energy system. However, as fuel and chemical raw materials in important transportation fields, petroleum will be difficult to replace in the future for a long time.

Zhang Yuqing said that the current global energy resources layout and pattern have undergone profound changes. In order to ensure China’s energy security, it is necessary to intensify domestic oil exploration and development efforts, strive to maintain oil production at 200 million tons, accelerate the capacity of natural gas industry to increase reserves, increase production and emergency reserves, and promote the coordinated development of natural gas and new energy.

“More importantly, we should make efficient use of oil from the demand side, accelerate the popularization and application of natural gas in the field of transportation, and slow down the growth of oil consumption demand.” Zhang Yuqing said.

On January 23, the Asian acetone market closed at a stable price of $498-501 per ton, CFR China.

The U.S. Gulf acetone market closed at a stable price of $738-762 per ton on January 23, FOB U.S. Gulf.

On January 22, the PX commodity index was 68.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 32.81% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 51.04% from the low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant has been running steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant has started 50% of its operation. Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant has been restarted. Other plants have been running steadily for the time being. The domestic market supply of p-xylene has increased, and the market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia rose to about 80%. On January 22, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 7 US dollars per ton. The closing price was US$106 5-1067 per ton FOB in Korea and US$108 4-1086 per ton CFR in China. More than 50% of domestic imports were needed. The decline of foreign prices had a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, and the domestic market price maintained 8,600 yuan per ton.

On January 22, the price of WTI crude oil in March fell to 52.57 U.S. dollars per barrel, or 1.23 U.S. dollars. The price of Brent crude oil in March fell to 61.50 U.S. dollars per barrel, or 1.24 U.S. dollars. The price of crude oil slightly declined. The price support for downstream petrochemical products was limited, and the price trend of p-xylene Market was temporarily stable. Recent textile industry market is general, PTA price has risen sharply recently. The average price of offer in East China is raised near 6600-6800 yuan/ton. As of 22 days, domestic PTA start-up rate is about 81.5% and polyester industry start-up rate is about 80%. In addition, the market price of PTA has risen sharply. It is expected that the market price of PX will maintain 8600 yuan/ton in the later period.

“After the price cut in 2018, lithium products will remain at a low price for some time, or return to a high point around 2025.” Li, chairman of Lubon Industry Co., Ltd., said at the Asian Battery Metal Seminar held on January 17.

With the release of new capacity, domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate prices fell all the way in 2018, offering only 77,000-82,000 yuan/ton in December, a drop of 53.3%. The price of lithium hydroxide fell slightly, but the December offer also fell 23.19% from the beginning of the year.

According to the statistics of Shanghai Nonferrous Metal Network (SMM), the new capacity of lithium hydroxide in China in 2018 totals about 355,000 tons, of which Ganfeng lithium industry and Ruifu lithium industry in Shandong have achieved mass production. Domestic lithium hydroxide production in 2018 is expected to be about 57,000 tons, an increase of 78.1% over last year.

According to the prediction of China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association Lithium Branch, driven by power batteries, the global demand for lithium carbonate will increase from 265,000 tons in 2017 to 400,000 tons in 2020. However, considering that capacity growth is faster than demand growth, the global supply and demand structure of lithium products is reversing. It is estimated that by 2021, China will increase lithium production capacity by about 206,500 tons and the world will increase lithium production capacity by about 409,500 tons, but the global demand for new lithium products is only about 200,000 tons in the same period.

Huatai Securities believes that in 2019, the trend of lithium supply and demand pattern from balance to excess is difficult to reverse, and lithium prices have gradually approached industry costs.

“But excess is a short-term phenomenon, and lithium is scarce in the long run.” Liu Nanping said that historical data show that the price cycle of lithium products is about 10 years. With the rapid growth of demand and supply, this cycle may be shortened. It is expected that the price of lithium products will return to high prices around 2025. By then, the global demand for lithium carbonate may exceed one million tons.

Another industry insider, who did not want to be named, was more optimistic, arguing that the growth in demand for power batteries brought about by electrification in the transport sector would push lithium prices up rapidly in 2023.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology predicts that by 2020, China’s sales of new energy vehicles will reach 2 million, with more than 5 million vehicles in possession. According to the target of the medium and long-term development plan of the automobile industry, the annual sales of new energy vehicles in China will reach 7 million by 2025.

According to Haitong Securities’recent research report, global sales of new energy passenger vehicles are expected to reach 3.429 million by 2020, and the corresponding demand for lithium carbonate will reach 139.8 million tons.

Some industry analysts predict that the downstream demand for lithium carbonate will continue to grow at an average annual rate of 16% over the next five years. With the extensive application of high nickel batteries, the demand for lithium hydroxide will also increase rapidly. It is estimated that the composite growth rate of global demand for lithium hydroxide in battery field will reach 78% from 2018 to 2020.

According to Standard & Poor’s, lithium demand for electric passenger cars will increase by about ten times by 2025.

At present, it has been proved that the global lithium reserves are about 16 million tons and the resources are about 53 million tons. Mainly distributed in Chile, Argentina, Australia and other countries, of which China reserves about 3.2 million tons, resources about 7 million tons.