I. price trend

According to the data in the business club’s bulk list, the market price of monoammonium phosphate in China fell in October. On October 1, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 2066 yuan / ton, and on October 29, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 1966 yuan / ton, down 4.84%.

According to the data in the business club’s bulk list, the market price of DAP in China was lowered in October. On October 1, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2416 yuan / ton, and on October 29, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2366 yuan / ton, down 2.07%.

II. Market analysis

Monoammonium: the domestic powdered monoammonium market was weak in October. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Anhui Province is 1850-2050 yuan / ton, and the commencement is stable. In Hubei Province, the ex factory price of 55% powdered ammonium is about 1900 yuan / ton, and that of 60% mainstream powdered ammonium is 2000-2100 yuan / ton. The market in Henan Province has maintained stable operation, and 55% of ammonium powder has been quoted at about 1850 yuan / ton, with stable start-up. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 2000-2050 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1950 yuan / ton.

Diammonium: in October, the market situation of diammonium phosphate in China was worrying, and the market demand was insufficient. At present, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Hubei Province offers 2300-2450 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Shandong Province 23050-2500 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province 2400-2500 yuan / ton, and 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Anhui Province 2400 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the demand of raw sulfur market is weak and unchanged, the high level of port inventory consumption is slow, the market is quiet, the negative mood is obvious, the atmosphere of on-site negotiation is cold, and the industry is mainly waiting for the future. The phosphorus ore market continues to be weak and stable, and the high-end quotations of local mining enterprises may be slightly reduced. The overall trading atmosphere in the field is weak, and the center of gravity in the field has a downward trend. At present, the new order volume still accounts for a small number, the enterprise inventory is high, and many mining enterprises still deal with the previous orders, and the overall inventory of mining enterprises is slowly digested. Liquid ammonia market may continue to maintain a weak position in the short term, mainly affected by the high ammonia volume in most regions after the festival. The recent market does not exclude the possibility of continuing to explore low. The demand of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is not enough to follow up. In autumn, the fertilizer industry has entered the closing stage, and the winter storage market has not yet started

.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 42nd week of 2019 (10.21-10.25), there are one rising commodity, two falling commodities and two rising and falling commodities. The main commodities that rose were yellow phosphorus (1.33%); the main commodities that fell were monoammonium phosphate (- 4.06%), diammonium phosphate (- 1.39%). This week’s average was – 0.82%.

III. future forecast

Analysts of business association ammonium phosphate think that the market of autumn phosphate fertilizer is weak, and the price encounters “cold winter”. The operating rate of Monoammonium is about 50%, the downstream takes the goods as needed, and some enterprises limit production and insure price. Demand for diammonium is light, exports are weak, and new single volume is rare. It is expected that the phosphate fertilizer market will not improve in the later period, and the weak market will continue. It is suggested to pay attention to the real-time market dynamics of phosphate chemical industry.

I. price trend

Isopropanol prices fell in September, according to commodity data monitoring. At the beginning of the month, the average price of isopropanol in China was 6916.67 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 5800 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis

Product: the domestic isopropanol market fell this month, and the atmosphere in the market was short. The price of acetone is weak, and the profit selling space of isopropanol plant by acetone method is increased, and the atmosphere in the plant is stalemate; however, the price of propylene is rising at present, and the price reduction intention of isopropanol by propylene method is not strong. Up to now, the negotiation range of isopropanol in Shandong is about 5800 yuan / ton, that in Ningbo, Zhejiang is around 5700 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu is about 5650-5800 yuan / ton, and that in Guangdong, South China is around 6050 yuan / ton. The price of isopropanol from propylene method is about 6500 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: as of October 28 from the upstream, the price of acetone fell by 11% in the month. At present, the market price of acetone is around 4450 yuan / ton. The acetone price is low this month. In the case of limited delivery, isopropanol may be sold at a low price. The price fluctuation of propylene market in this month is relatively obvious. At present, it is expected that the market is bullish, and the buyer has no intention of shipping at a low price. By the end of the month, the mainstream price of propylene in East China market is around 7300 yuan / ton. Propylene isopropanol plant cost surface pressure, high price operation.

On October 27, the commodity price index of isopropanol and acetone was 106.37, unchanged from yesterday, 28.34% lower than 148.43 (2019-01-02), the highest point in the cycle, and 31.43% higher than 80.93, the lowest point on December 25, 2013. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-01-01 till now)

III. future forecast

According to isopropanol analysts from the chemical branch of business society, the decline of acetone will certainly depress the downstream market mentality of isopropanol. The pressure of isopropanol in propylene process is high and the cost is serious. Generally speaking, the isopropanol market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the buying is cautious. The industry pays more attention to the future news.

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, this week (10.21-25) polysilicon continued to maintain a narrow adjustment trend after the festival, not continuing the upward trend in September. At present, the market supply and demand balance, the price also returned to stability, the bottom rebound is temporarily over, although the price did not break through again, but the market is still relatively rigid. As of October 25, the average price quoted by domestic enterprises is 63000-67000 yuan / ton, and the current price is about 22% lower than that of last year. At present, the domestic single crystal is still stable, the price range of compact material is 7300-760 million yuan / ton, and the price difference of single polycrystal is still at the early level.

II. Market analysis

In the middle and late ten days, the domestic polysilicon market has maintained stable operation. After going through the slow bull market of “Jinjiu”, the polysilicon market has entered a stable period at present. As the overall market temperature has not continued, the procurement remains on the sidelines, and the recent procurement price is expected to continue to fluctuate. At present, it is mainly focused on the price changes of single and multi silicon chips at the end of the month, but from the perspective of supply and demand, the market performance is relatively balanced at present. On the one hand, the market supply is sufficient, and the overhaul rate of large factories is low, but the inventory pressure of manufacturers is not large. At present, 15 domestic polysilicon production enterprises have stopped this week, and there are two polysilicon enterprises in the overhaul period, and the overhaul is expected to continue to November. The signing rate of manufacturers is also high, mainly because most domestic enterprises are still executing the orders signed in October at the end of September, and most orders signed in November are concentrated in the next week, so the price of this week has not been greatly adjusted. Overall, the overall market supply pressure is not big. On the other hand, the market demand has returned to stability in the near future, and has not continued to expand. After entering the middle and late October, the downstream demand performance is in line with the rules. Previously, the silicon material price corresponding to the silicon chip price was relatively low, so the pressure of polysilicon chip enterprises is indeed large at present, but with the weak demand of polysilicon in the near future, the overall situation is not conducive to the price of the overall polysilicon products. The trading performance of overseas polycrystalline market is more active than that of domestic market, especially the small material market. Considering the change of exchange rate, the high price market has increased. Domestic polysilicon prices did not continue to rise, mainly because demand did not keep up.

In the future, business analysts believe that the current polysilicon market is weak and stable. In the late October, the overhaul of two enterprises will not bring much supply change to the market. In the short term, the supply is still stable. In the future, the polysilicon trend will mainly depend on the change of demand: the demand begins to shift to the single crystal market, so the single crystal market may be better than the polycrystalline market. Accordingly, monocrystal will occupy part of the demand for polycrystals, while the demand for polycrystals will decrease. However, due to the maintenance of silicon enterprises in the same period affecting part of the supply, offsetting the impact of some expected demand reduction, the market of polycrystal silicon will continue to maintain stability in the short term, mainly with narrow fluctuations.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, as of October 24, the average market price of organosilicon DMC is 17133.33 yuan / ton, down 1.91% compared with the average price on October 21.

II. Market analysis

Products: since the beginning of October, the market of organosilicon DMC has been ups and downs. After the national day, the market of organosilicon DMC suddenly fell rapidly, and the market price once fell to the bottom. At that time, the highest quotation of traders was reduced by nearly 2000 yuan / ton, and the downstream actively prepared goods and swept up goods. After reaching the bottom, the price of organosilicon DMC rose to a certain extent last week, with the maximum price of the factory’s quotation back to 1000 yuan / ton, and the average price of the comprehensive sample enterprise’s quotation back to 300 yuan / ton. Until October 24 today, the market of organosilicon DMC is still in a weak position. Many enterprises lowered their prices again, and some enterprises even returned to the lowest price of 16500 yuan / ton. At present, the main quotation of DMC is around 1

6500-18500 yuan / ton.

Operation of the unit: Dongyue, Shandong Province: annual capacity of the unit is 250000 tons, and the manufacturer’s unit is currently open, shut down, and there is an annual maintenance plan for the unit before and after October 25, which is expected to last for half a month; Jiangxi spark: annual capacity of the unit is 400000 tons, and the unit is currently in full load operation; Luxi Chemical: annual capacity of the organic silicon unit is 80000 tons, and the unit operation is stable at present; Inner Mongolia hengyecheng: annual capacity of the unit is 24 10000 tons, 80% of the plant is under construction; Zhejiang Xin’an: the total capacity is 340000 tons, and the plant is currently operating at full load; Tangshan Sanyou: the annual capacity of single enterprise is 200000 tons, and two sets are fully open at present, and there is maintenance plan for next Tuesday; Shandong Jinling: the annual capacity of single enterprise is 150000 tons, and the plant is running smoothly at present; Zhejiang Zhongtian: the annual capacity of single enterprise is 120000 tons, and the plant is running smoothly at present; Hubei Province Xingfa: with an annual output of 180000 tons, 70% of the plant is currently under construction. It is estimated that the plant will be shut down from the end of October to the beginning of November. At that time, it is estimated that the shutdown time will vary from 10 to 15 days. The newly added 120000 tons / year silicone monomer plant is expected to be put into operation from November to December.

III. future forecast

Business analysts believe that: in the short term, the market of organosilicon DMC will still have a small shock and go higher.

Recently, the price of heavy rare earth in China has continued to decline. The price trend of some rare earth products is as follows:

In recent years, the market price of heavy rare earth in China has continued to decline. As of the 23rd, the price of dysprosium oxide was 164500 yuan / ton, down 11.8% in October; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 164500 yuan / ton, down 11.8%; the market price of light rare earth also fell correspondingly, with the price of neodymium oxide being 304500 yuan / ton, down 4.69% in October; the price of praseodymium neodymium alloy being 382500 yuan / ton, down 6.13%; and the price of praseodymium neodymium alloy being 382500 yuan / ton. Oxide prices fell to 302500 yuan / ton, down 4.72% in October. In recent years, the price of heavy rare earth in China has been falling continuously, while the price of light rare earth market has been declining slightly. In recent years, the gateway trade in Myanmar is normal, and the supply of heavy rare earth market in China has increased. Affected by the low price selling of some manufacturers, the price of heavy rare earth market has been falling continuously.

On October 22, the rare earth index was 351, down 6 points from yesterday, 64.90% from the highest point in the cycle, 1000 (2011-12-06), and 29.52% higher than the lowest point, 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

In recent years, the price of rare earth in the market has been falling continuously, and the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market has declined by a large margin. With the reopening of the gateway in Myanmar, the supply of domestic heavy rare earth market has increased, and some on-site merchants have sold off, and the price of domestic heavy rare earth continues to decline. In addition, in the near future, the demand for permanent magnet is still not improving, the market trend of PR nd series products is declining, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth is not good in the near future, and the market price is low. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict environmental protection inspection, the manufacturers reasonably controlled the sales, but in the near future, the downstream demand entered the off-season, some enterprises sold at low prices, and the market price of light rare earth was correspondingly lower.

In the near future, the national environmental protection department has made unremitting efforts to inspect the rare earth industry. Jiangxi Province has strengthened the supervision of the rare earth industry, which has a great impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a relatively low start-up situation, and the market situation is cold, which has brought some good support to the rare earth market. Recently, the supervision group of the State Council went to Jiangxi Province to supervise rare earth enterprises. This supervision focused on the major deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, highlighted the key and difficult issues in the field of economic operation and reform and development, focused on the strong blocking points and pain points reflected by the people and market subjects, and promoted the implementation of various work. In addition, the national development and Reform Commission and the relevant departments have taken effective measures to rectify and standardize the industry, innovated and improved the relevant management mechanism, accelerated the construction of an industry development pattern with reasonable industrial structure, advanced scientific and technological level, effective resource protection and orderly production and operation, effectively utilized the special value of rare earth as a strategic resource, and the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk. , people in the domestic arena are waiting for the specific good news of the policy and the national reserve.

Rare earth analysts of the business club expect that in the near future, the intensity of strict environmental protection inspection in China will not be reduced. In addition, the order of rare earth industry will be rectified in China, and the supply of rare earth industry in Jiangxi will be maintained at a low level. However, the downstream demand for rare earth will not improve in the near future, and the import of heavy rare earth will increase. It is expected that some prices in rare earth market will continue to decline.