Price data:

According to the monitoring data of business associations’list, the domestic bromine market continued to decline in June, and the industry started to work normally as a whole. At the beginning of the month, the average bromine price was about 35,000 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, it fell to about 34,000 yuan/ton, with a drop of 2.86% in the month, up by 20.97% compared with the same period last year.

II. Cause Analysis

Products: In June, the domestic bromine market was well supplied, the productivity of seawater bromine enterprises reached its peak, and some bromine enterprises had a certain stock accumulation. However, the downstream market gradually entered the off-season, the demand for bromine was weak, and the industry as a whole gradually showed a situation of oversupply. For some start-up enterprises, such as Dongyue Fine Chemical Company, Shandong Haihua Company, Shandong Haiwang Chemical Company, Tianjin Changlu Haijing Company, etc. At present, the mainstream quotation of enterprises is about 33500-34000 yuan/ton, and some of the real orders are on the low side.

Industry Chain: The upstream industry of bromide in June rose and fell differently: the sulfur market rose first and then stabilized in a month, with an increase of 4.18%, and the current quotation of 996 yuan/ton; the caustic soda market shocked and adjusted within a month, with a slight increase of 1.06%, and the current quotation of 712 yuan/ton; the soda market dropped by 9.01% in a month, and the current quotation of 1783 yuan/ton; The acid price fluctuated upwards, up 4.88% in the month, and the current quotation is about 215 yuan/ton. At present, the downstream bromine flame retardant industry is in the off-season, the overall demand is not good, the bromine price support is insufficient, pharmaceutical and agricultural intermediates and other industries can be purchased.

3. Future Market Forecast

Bromine industry analysts of business associations believe that the production of domestic bromine market enterprises is in the peak season. Recently, the environmental protection group inspected the Bohai Rim, which has a certain impact on bromine production. However, downstream users just need to be weak, and the market as a whole is in a relatively balanced state in a short time. It is expected that bromine prices will remain stable for a long time in the future. Online vision will continue to show a downward trend.

According to the survey data of business associations, the average market price in East China is about 1716.67 yuan per ton. The light soda commodity index on July 1 was 88.03, down 3.42 points from yesterday, down 25.31% from 117.86 points in the cycle (2017-11-21), and up 39.40% from 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

Domestic soda market is mainly stable, and enterprises are on the sidelines. At present, the mainstream factory price of light alkali in China is 1450-1700 yuan/ton, and the terminal price of heavy alkali is 1750-1900 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price can be further discussed. The domestic soda ash market has a narrow fluctuation and is relatively stable as a whole. Lightweight alkali market continues to decline, manufacturers shipment situation is general.

Soda analysts in business associations believe that the recent start-up load of soda manufacturers continues to rise, and the supply of goods is sufficient. Soda soda manufacturers have a high inventory. Downstream demand is sluggish, more cautious wait-and-see market-oriented. The market is short of good news. It is expected that the domestic soda market will operate steadily in a multi-dimensional way in the short term, with the focus of attention mainly on wait-and-see. The downstream market demand will also be seen in detail.

Global Data said that driven by Asia and the Middle East, global polypropylene production is expected to increase by 34% from 88.57 million tons per year in 2019 to 118.6 million tons per year in 2023.

According to the company’s report Global Prospects for Polypropylene Industry 2023 – Prospects for Capacity and Capital Expenditure, there are about 108 polypropylene plants planned and announced for production in the next four years, mainly in Asia and the Middle East.

Asia’s polypropylene production capacity is expected to increase from 51.61 million tons per year in 2019 to 65.33 million tons per year in 2023, with an average annual growth of 5.9%. In 2023, China’s production capacity in the region will increase by about 11.63 million tons per year. The main new capacity will come from Wuhan Polypropylene Plant No. 2 of Sinopec Wuhan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and will reach 1.1 million tons per year by 2023.

Dayan and Kharade, oil and gas analyst at GlobalData, said: “As urbanization progresses and income levels continue to rise, demand for polypropylene, mainly from packaging, is boosting large-scale capacity growth in China and India. These two countries are expected to account for 40% of global capacity growth in the outlook period.

GlobalData identified the Middle East as the second highest area for PP production growth, with an average annual growth rate of 11.8% from 9.22 million tons per year in 2019 to 14.8 million tons per year in 2023. The main new capacity will come from an announced plant, Jam Polypropylene’s Assaluyeh Polypropylene Plant 2, which will reach 550,000 tons per year by 2023.

By 2023, Russia will increase production capacity by about 2.53 million tons per year in all countries.

Africa will be the fourth highest region, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.15 million tons by 2023, up from 1.49 million tons in 2019. By 2023, Egypt’s contribution to Africa will reach about 1.33 million tons, ranking first in Africa. The main additional capacity will come from the Ain Sokhna polypropylene plant of Taril Petrochemical Company, which will reach 880,000 tons per year by 2023.

North American polypropylene production is expected to grow at an annual rate of 5%, from 8.97 million tons per year in 2019 to 1.95 million tons per year in 2023. By 2023, the United States is expected to be the fastest-growing country in the region, with an additional capacity of 1.15 million tons per year.

On June 26, the “China Plastic Industry Congress 2019″ sponsored by Dalian Commodity Exchange was held in Hangzhou. The theme of the Congress is “Innovating Industry Services and Promoting the Combination of Industry and Finance”. As a promising chemical product in the market this year, the related situation of styrene is noticeable. At the meeting, Li Guodong, deputy manager of Organic Chemistry Department of East China Branch of Sinopec Chemical Sales Co., Ltd., shared the current market situation of styrene.

Adrian Li

From 2014 to 2018, domestic styrene production increased from 6.95 million tons to 9.21 million tons, an increase of 32.5%. In terms of apparent consumption, domestic apparent consumption was 8.42 million tons in 2014, and increased by 2.6 million tons to 1.12 million tons in 2018, an increase of 30.9%. The growth of production capacity and consumption is basically the same. The starting rate has increased year by year, from 67.48% in 2014 to 88.06% in 2018.

According to enterprises, Petrochemical accounts for 25% of the production capacity of styrene, petroleum accounts for 14%, private enterprises account for 29%, and other state-owned enterprises account for 16%. Regionally, the largest proportion of styrene production capacity is 43% in East China, 23% in North China, 14% in South China and 12% in Northeast China.

On the import side, the import volume of styrene declined year by year, and the import dependence decreased to 26% in 2018. Specifically, between 2014 and 2017, Korea’s supply of goods accounted for 32% to 38% of the total domestic imports. Since June 23, 2018, anti-dumping duties on imported styrene originating in Korea, Taiwan and the United States have been imposed, with tariffs ranging from 3.8% to 55.7%. Affected by this, in 2018, South Korea’s share of goods fell to 12%, while the United States’share of goods fell to 4.6%.

From the downstream consumption situation, the main downstream industries are EPS, PS, ABS. The total number of customers is only 70, and the production capacity is mainly concentrated in the top five enterprises in the industry. The start-up rate of downstream industries is not high except ABS, 41%-71%.

In terms of price trend, Li Guodong Introductory, looking at the Jiangsu Styrene Market in the past five years, the price range in 2014 is 6400-12100 yuan/ton, 6600-11200 yuan/ton in 2015, 7700-10900 yuan/ton in 2016, 8180-12000 yuan/ton in 2017 and 7750-14000 yuan/ton in 2018. CFR China and domestic styrene price trends are consistent, styrene and the main raw material pure phenyl benzol are highly synchronized.

“In recent years, the styrene industry has maintained a good profit margin. In 2018, the styrene industry maintained a high profit throughout the year, especially in May-June, the profit remained in 2000-4000 yuan/ton. Li Guodong said that there are two main reasons for the high profits in 2018. The first is the shrinkage of both import and domestic sources, the tight domestic spot, the misjudgment of anti-dumping and the external operating environment in the industry, and the low inventory operation in East China’s main port for a long time. Secondly, in terms of main raw materials, pure benzene operates at a low level all year round, and ethylene has been falling all the way.

From 2016 to 2019, the inventory data of the main ports of styrene in East China are much lower than that of the same period in previous years in the first and third quarters of 2018. According to Zhuo Chuang’s statistics, on June 6, inventory in East China’s main port fell to 206,000 tons and commodity inventory to 123,000 tons, which meant that the market’s available spot volume was almost exhausted. Inventories rebounded sharply in the fourth quarter of 2018. On March 18, 2019, stocks reached an all-time high of 350,500 tons.

“In the next five years, the styrene market will change from the seller’s market to the buyer’s market, and the era of industry-wide profitability will come to an end.” Li Guodong said that with the start-up of Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 1.2 million tons by the end of 2019 and the start-up of Zhonghai Shell, Sinochem Quanzhou and Gulei Petrochemical Plant in 2020, the domestic supply and demand pattern will change dramatically and the import volume will decrease dramatically. After 2020, the pattern of styrene trade in Northeast Asia will change fundamentally.

According to the monitoring of business associations, on June 26, the price of hydrogen peroxide continued to fall sharply. The average domestic price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide was 1200 yuan/ton, which was 6.14% lower than that at the beginning of the week.

At the end of June, the demand of the hydrogen peroxide terminal caprolactam, paper making and cotton textile industry is not enough. The market for hydrogen peroxide has fallen. Among them, Hebei Zhengyuan 1000 yuan per ton, the price fell 100 yuan per ton. Shandong Haineng quoted 1120 yuan/ton, the price fell 60 yuan/ton, Luxi quoted 940 yuan/ton, and the price fell 40 yuan/ton. Anhui mainstream quotation 1100 yuan / ton, the price fell 50 yuan / ton.

Business society hydrogen peroxide analysts believe that July is still in the off-season of hydrogen peroxide consumption, hydrogen peroxide Market in the future increased pressure.