The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the acrylic acid market is consolidating

The market price of acrylic acid has fluctuated within a small range recently, showing a slight upward trend. This may be due to the intensification of the game between supply and demand, the slowdown of downstream procurement pace, and the contraction of market trading volume. As of April 9th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 7833.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.52% compared to the beginning of this month (7566.67 yuan/ton).
Weak supply-demand balance:
Supply side: The operating rate of domestic acrylic acid factories remains stable, and some enterprises adjust their loads due to cost pressures, but there is no significant oversupply overall.
Demand side: Downstream industries such as coatings, adhesives, and water treatment have weak demand, dragged down by slow macroeconomic recovery and weak demand in some end industries (such as real estate and infrastructure). Enterprises mainly purchase on demand, lacking the motivation to stockpile goods.
Price trend of propylene: As the core raw material of acrylic acid, propylene prices have been fluctuating downward recently. As of April 9th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6723.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.33% compared to the beginning of this month (6745.75 yuan/ton).
The impact on acrylic acid: The cost of propylene accounts for 60% -70% of the total cost of acrylic acid, and the decline in propylene prices directly weakens the cost support of acrylic acid, theoretically opening up downward space for acrylic acid prices. However, currently the acrylic acid market is experiencing a weak balance between supply and demand, and prices have not kept pace with the decline, resulting in a slight recovery in corporate profit margins.
In summary, the current acrylic acid market is in a bi-directional squeezing stage of “cost weakening+flat demand”, with short-term or sustained price fluctuations. It is necessary to closely monitor the trend of raw material propylene and the marginal changes in downstream demand to prevent periodic market fluctuations caused by supply-demand imbalance.

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Supply pressure remains, adipic acid market declines

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in early April, the domestic adipic acid market fell and weakened. On April 1st, the average price of adipic acid in the domestic market was 7766 yuan/ton. On April 8th, the average price of adipic acid in the domestic market was 7700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86% in price.
Supply pressure remains weak and the adipic acid market is declining
Since April, the market for pure benzene and cyclohexanone raw materials for adipic acid has weakened, resulting in poor demand in the terminal industry. The supply pressure in the adipic acid market has doubled, and shipping prices have remained weak and stable. Market transactions have been flat, and sales have been average. The average market price of adipic acid has fallen to 7600-7700 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of about 50 yuan/ton.
An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in mid April, the raw material market may see an improvement, supply pressure will ease, and the domestic adipic acid market may experience a rebound.

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The butadiene market first rose and then fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 31 to April 7, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 11000 yuan/ton to 10833.33 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 1.52% during the period. This cycle, the domestic butadiene market showed a trend of first rising and then falling within the week, with an overall downward trend. As the holiday approaches, some downstream stocks will replenish their positions after falling. At the beginning of the week, market transactions were relatively concentrated. With some auction sources selling at a premium, the market trend has significantly shifted upwards. Although the supply side prices remained firm, the high end offers and transactions in the later part of the week were somewhat deadlocked. At the same time, the news of the US tariffs affected the futures market, causing downstream buyers to be cautious. After short-term fluctuations in the market, prices significantly declined on Thursday afternoon. As of April 7th, the delivery price in Shandong region is 10900 yuan/ton.
Cost wise: International crude oil futures plummeted on April 4th. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $61.99 per barrel, a decrease of $4.96 or 7.4%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $65.58 per barrel, a decrease of $4.56 or 6.5%. Affected by US tariff policies, oil prices have plummeted for two consecutive trading days, with WTI experiencing a cumulative drop of nearly $10. Investors are concerned about the risk of economic recession caused by the escalation of global trade conflicts. According to crude oil analysts from Shengyi Society, based on the subsequent impact of current US tariff policies, crude oil may enter a new cycle in the long term. The supply-demand balance may be disrupted and enter the process of rebalancing again. In the short term, given that countries are attempting to negotiate lower tariffs or impose retaliatory tariffs, tariffs may change and oil prices may fluctuate significantly in the short term.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 11200 yuan/ton, with an increase of 100 yuan/ton this week.
Demand side: The styrene butadiene rubber market has been operating weakly during this cycle. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of April 3rd, the styrene butadiene rubber market in the northwest region has slightly declined by around 100 yuan/ton. Currently, downstream inquiries are cautious, and market transactions are flat. The mainstream price of Jihua 1502 is 13900 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: This weekend, crude oil prices will significantly decline, and the spot market will be dragged down and prices will follow suit. There are many negative factors on the cost side. In terms of supply, there have been few maintenance visits to butadiene enterprises recently, and the subsequent arrival situation at the port is good. The market expects a good supply of butadiene, but the supply side is relatively empty. The downstream synthetic rubber futures market on the demand side has weakened, and the overall operating rate has decreased, resulting in overall demand leaning towards rigid demand. Overall, the supply and demand performance of the butadiene market is bearish, and it is expected to be mainly stable, moderate, and weak in the short term.

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The demand for aniline is generally stable, and the price of aniline is temporarily stable

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aniline market has remained low recently, and the market atmosphere is quiet. The spot price of aniline in East China is 8000-8100 yuan/ton, and the acceptance price is 8080 yuan/ton. It is reported that the raw material pure benzene has rebounded and stopped falling, and cost support is gradually increasing. The downstream demand for aniline remains rigid, while the demand side support is average. If the price of pure benzene continues to rise in the future, it is expected that the possibility of aniline pushing up will increase.

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Domestic maleic anhydride market is weak

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market was weakly consolidated on March 31. As of March 31, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 6790 yuan/ton, which was stable compared to the previous trading day.
Supply side: Currently, the increase in spot supply in the maleic anhydride market is limited, and downstream unsaturated resin manufacturers of maleic anhydride are mainly operating steadily. The unsaturated resin market is mainly stable, and the procurement of maleic anhydride is limited. On the 31st, the auction price fell, and the price of maleic anhydride factory also fell. As of March 31st, the factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6700 yuan/ton, and the factory price of liquid anhydride is around 6400 yuan/ton.
Upstream: On the 31st, the n-butane market remained stable, and as of March 27th, the price in Shandong was around 5300-5350 yuan/ton.
Downstream: Currently, unsaturated resin companies are mainly operating steadily, but due to the impact of rising raw material prices and subsequent declines, the unsaturated resin market remains stable, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.
The analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride products believes that the recent replenishment of downstream resin demand for maleic anhydride has ended, and new order signings are limited; At present, the prices of the main factories producing maleic anhydride have fallen, and it is expected that the maleic anhydride market will mainly consolidate weakly in the near future.

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