According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PET bottle chip market price fluctuated weakly this week. As of December 6th, its average market price was 6120 yuan per ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton or 0.48% from the average price at the beginning of the month.

In terms of cost, the International Energy Agency (IEA) pointed out this week that the market supply situation is slightly unstable, and the demand outlook is not very clear. On the eve of the OPEC meeting, the market is generally adopting a wait-and-see attitude, leading to a fluctuating downward trend in international oil prices, which has a negative impact on the cost side. Nevertheless, the quotations from polyester bottle chip factories remain firm, and the actual negotiation focus in the market remains stable. Subsequently, the market remained optimistic about the expectation of OPEC+delaying production increases, providing support for the market and leading to a rebound in international crude oil prices. However, due to the unexpected increase in US refined oil inventories, international oil prices were under pressure and some of the gains were reversed, leading to a decrease in polyester raw material prices and a cost negative impact on the polyester bottle chip market, resulting in a decline in its market focus.

In terms of demand, downstream and end users still hold a wait-and-see attitude, and their enthusiasm for participating in the market is not high, mainly to meet low-level rigid demand, with limited actual trading volume. Therefore, the PET market as a whole lacks sufficient momentum.

Overall, the weak cost continues, and downstream procurement is cautious. There is currently no positive market support, and the industry’s profit recovery is difficult. It is expected that the polyester vibrating plate market will fluctuate within a certain range next week. The price operating space in the East China market is between 6050-6200 yuan/ton, and it is still necessary to pay close attention to the trends of the crude oil and PTA markets,

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China remained stable this week. As of December 5th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11583.33 yuan/ton, which was the same as the beginning of this week.

Raw material side: The price of raw material fluorite has risen this week. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, domestic fluorite prices have risen this week. As of December 5th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society fluorite was 3678.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.10% compared to the beginning of this month (3675.00 yuan/ton).

Demand side: Maintain stability in the downstream refrigerant market. Some factories have offered price increases. Affected by quota management and maintenance plans, most units in the refrigerant industry entered a shutdown state in December, and the operating load gradually decreased, resulting in a continued cold atmosphere towards raw material procurement.

Market forecast: The raw material market prices will rise, and downstream demand based procurement will be the main focus. We will adopt a cautious and wait-and-see attitude towards high priced raw material procurement. It is expected that the price of hydrofluoric acid will remain stable in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aniline market fluctuated in November, with a slight overall increase. On November 1st, the market price of aniline was 9100 yuan/ton, and on November 29th, the price was 9337 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.61% during the month and a decrease of 24.39% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

The aniline market in November was dominated by supply and demand, with prices fluctuating within a range. In the first half of the month, the on-site equipment came to a halt, which boosted the news and pushed up the upstream market, resulting in an increase in aniline prices. In the middle of the month, parking facilities resumed operation, and the demand for gas in the venue weakened, leading to a stagnant market and consolidation. At the end of the month, the market ushered in a new round of maintenance equipment restart, and the price of aniline fell sharply. Subsequently, the price of raw materials rose, and downstream companies entered the market at a low price, resulting in improved purchasing power. After the price of aniline fell, it rebounded,

Pure benzene: In November, the pure benzene market rose in a climbing manner. The overall supply of pure benzene in November was loose, and there was a lot of pressure on imported goods. Downstream traders entered the market at a low price. There was a wave of rise in the second half of the month, but the momentum for further increase was insufficient. At the end of the month, the market turned from rising to falling. On November 1st, the average price of pure benzene was 7109 yuan/ton, and on November 29th, the average price of pure benzene was 7362 yuan/ton, with a 3.09% increase during the period.

3、 Future expectations

The current favorable support for the aniline market is insufficient, and the raw material pure benzene is showing a weak trend. At the same time, downstream demand is sluggish, and the mentality of industry players is not good. It is expected that the aniline market will operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of industrial grade 85% formic acid in China rose in early December. As of December 2, the average price of 85% formic acid in China was 2925 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.41% from the same period last month at 2775 yuan/ton.

Raw material side: The main futures of raw material methanol have risen, and spot prices at ports have increased accordingly. The trading atmosphere in the mainland market is good, and local production has declined. In addition, factory inventories have remained at a low level, which is supported by favorable raw material inventory, and the price center has shifted upward.

Supply side: Some of the facilities of the largest domestic formic acid manufacturer have been shut down for maintenance, resulting in tight supply. Overall production has remained at a relatively low level, and the amount of spot goods on site has decreased, providing favorable support for the supply side.

Demand side: Many downstream manufacturers of formic acid have a strong demand for purchasing, and the demand side has limited support for formic acid prices.

The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that due to the reduction in supply and the strong operation of raw materials, the formic acid market will operate steadily, but will not have a significant increase due to demand constraints. Specific attention still needs to be paid to the trend of raw materials and downstream markets.

In November 2024, the domestic adhesive short fiber market will maintain stable operation. During the month, the upstream main raw material dissolution slurry market remained stable, while the auxiliary material liquid alkali market rose and then fell back. The sulfuric acid market continued to rise in price, and the cost side trend was upward; In terms of supply, various manufacturers of adhesive short fibers are operating at high loads, with high on-site supply. However, the overall inventory level in the market is low, and some models are in short supply, with good support from the supply side; The peak demand season has ended, but the demand in the terminal market has not improved. The downstream yarn market has insufficient orders, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement is not good. Therefore, we are holding onto the demand for essential goods. Overall, the price center of the upstream raw material market has slightly shifted upward, with cost support remaining. Some of the on-site sources of goods are tight, and the supply side provides some upward momentum for the market. However, downstream demand has not shown significant improvement, and under the interweaving of on-site news, the price of the adhesive short fiber market continues to remain stable.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 29th, the domestic ex factory price of 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber was 13820 yuan/ton, which was the same as the beginning of the month and increased by 7.13% compared to the beginning of the year.

In terms of cost: the market price of the main raw material dissolution slurry is running steadily, the market price of the auxiliary material liquid alkali is declining narrowly, the market price of sulfuric acid is steadily rising, the cost center of gravity is shifting upward, and the average production cost of adhesive short fibers is increasing.

Supply demand: During the month, most of the adhesive short fiber manufacturers’ equipment has been operating stably, and the industry supply is still at a high level. In November, the operating rate of the adhesive short fiber industry was around 84.62%, but the overall inventory level on site is still low, and there is currently no inventory pressure. The downstream cotton yarn market has an average speed of shipment and prices are stagnant and consolidating. The demand in the terminal market is unlikely to improve, and yarn mills often sign orders to maintain normal machine operation, with insufficient support from the demand side.

Market forecast:

The adhesive short fiber market has a high production rate and tight delivery, and there is still demand for the dissolution slurry market. Therefore, the upstream main raw material dissolution slurry market may have strong prices, and the inventory level in the field may continue to be low; Downstream cotton yarn enterprises tend to purchase according to demand, and as we enter the end of the year, downstream yarn factories have low stocking enthusiasm, and there is a possibility of a decrease in demand for adhesive short fibers. Both positive and negative factors coexist. Business analysts predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market price will decline narrowly next month, with a decline of around 100-300 yuan/ton.