According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid has shown a continuous upward trend recently. As of December 17th, the average price of formic acid was 2950 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.31% compared to the same period last month at 2775 yuan/ton, and an increase of 3.51% compared to the beginning of the month at 2850 yuan/ton. It has been rising continuously for three months since September.

Since May, the price of formic acid has been continuously falling. In order to stabilize the price, China’s largest formic acid production enterprise has chosen to reduce production and offer lower prices. Some of the equipment has been shut down, and the supply in the field has sharply decreased, resulting in an increase in formic acid prices.

On the raw material side, the domestic methanol market was mainly on the rise during the week. Changes in Middle Eastern facilities may lead to a decrease in import volume, depletion of port inventory, shutdown of the Southwest natural gas to methanol plant, planned maintenance of the Zhongyuan Dahua 50 plant, and a decrease in supply from mainland China, resulting in an increase in methanol prices.

The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there is still positive support for the raw material methanol, coupled with a decrease in on-site supply, and formic acid prices are strongly supported. It is expected that there will be strong fluctuations in the short term, and specific market information still needs to be monitored.

At the beginning of the week, the inventory level at the port was not high, only 6000 tons, and spot goods were still in a tight supply situation, with a stable supply and price sentiment. However, due to the sluggish buying enthusiasm at the end of the week and poor shipment, there was a concession operation. Subsequently, the market center of gravity weakened in the middle of the week, and the inverted range of the market widened, resulting in a slightly quiet trading atmosphere. According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic phenol market price was 8017.5 yuan/ton on December 6th and 7930 yuan/ton on December 13th, with a slight decrease of 1.1% during the week.

Sinopec Huadong phenol is listed at a price of 7800-8000 yuan/ton. Sinopec North China phenol is listed at a price range of 8000-8050 yuan/ton. As of the 9th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:

Region/ Quotation on the 13th/ Zhou’s ups and downs

East China region/ 7800./ -170

Shandong region/ 8000./ 0

Surrounding areas of Yanshan Mountain/ 8000./ -50

South China region/ 7900./ -150

As of now, the cargo statistics in East China are 26000 tons, reaching 9000 tons, and the inventory at Jiangyin Port is at a low level of 17000 tons. Follow up on the shipping dynamics.

Faced with high price resistance in demand, terminal enterprises mainly focus on purchasing essential goods, which has been constrained by the previous round of price increases. The downstream bisphenol A spot market rose to 9300-9400 yuan/ton due to the impact of raw material price adjustments.

During the shutdown of the Yangzhou Shiyou phenol ketone plant, the shipment of goods has been suspended. We will continue to monitor the replenishment of ship cargo in the near future, and there will be no significant increase in port storage in the short term. The pressure on the supply side is not high, and the space for supply concessions has narrowed. Business Society expects that the short-term market fluctuations will not be significant, mostly around 50-100 yuan/ton.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 11733 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 11700/ton, a decrease of 0.28% in price.

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers’ quotations fell this week, with the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranging from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton. The market is mostly wait-and-see, with weak transactions and a lack of favorable price support.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in applications such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially for gold charcoal, which receives a lot of inquiries from the African market; The shipment of fruit shell charcoal is smooth. The imported carbide material market is temporarily stable, and the industry can pay more attention to it.

Prediction: The activated carbon market is experiencing slow sales, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

Product Name: Pure Benzene

Latest price: On December 12th, the average market price was 7586.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.07% compared to the previous trading day.

Analysis: On December 12th, the domestic pure benzene market prices were relatively strong and consolidated, and the trading atmosphere on the exchange was still acceptable. Shandong’s local refining enterprises have controllable inventory, with stability as the main focus. Some enterprises have slightly increased their prices, and the on-site shipment situation is average. International crude oil futures rose, and the overseas price of pure benzene was relatively strong, which boosted confidence in the domestic pure benzene market. It is expected that the pure benzene market will strengthen and consolidate in the short term, and actual transactions will be subject to negotiation.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on December 11th, the reference price for the domestic silicon metal # 441 market was 11990 yuan/ton. Compared with December 1st (silicon metal # 441 market price of 12070 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66%.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in December, the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 showed an overall weak downward trend. On the first few days of the month, the overall weakness and consolidation of the silicon metal spot market resulted in a general atmosphere within the market. On the 9th and 10th, the spot market for metallic silicon in most parts of China experienced a cooling trend and fell, including the market prices of metallic silicon 553 # (oxygen supply), 553 # (non oxygen supply), 441 #, 421 #, 3303 #, 99 #, and other foreign silicon. The extent of the price reduction varied depending on the region and brand. Among them, the metal silicon 441 # in Huangpu Port area will be reduced by 150 yuan/ton, the metal silicon 441 # in Tianjin Port area will be reduced by 100 yuan/ton, and the metal silicon 441 # in Shanghai area will be reduced by 150 yuan/ton. As of December 11th, the domestic market price reference for metallic silicon 441 # is around 11500-12350 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material silica: Recently, the upstream raw material silica market for metallic silicon has been operating steadily. The reference factory price for high-grade silica ore in Inner Mongolia is around 360-390 yuan/ton, and the reference factory price for low-grade silica ore is around 260-280 yuan/ton. The reference factory price for high-grade silica in Hubei region is 420-450 yuan/ton, while in Guangxi region it is 370-380 yuan/ton. The stable silica market provides support and stability for the market of metallic silicon.

In terms of raw material silicon coal: Recently, the silicon coal market in some regions of China has experienced a narrow downward trend, which has slightly loosened the cost support for metallic silicon. The market price of silicon coal (middling coal) in Xinjiang is stable, and the price reference is around 1150-1170 yuan/ton. The market price of Ningxia silicon coal (granular coal) has been lowered, with a reference price of 1510-1530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia silicon coal market is temporarily stable, with a reference price of around 1260-1270 yuan/ton.

In terms of downstream organic silicon DMC: Currently, the overall market for metal silicon downstream organic silicon DMC is stable and operating, with reference prices around 12500-13500 yuan/ton in the organic silicon DMC market.

In terms of production and supply: According to incomplete statistics, China’s metal silicon production in November was about 405000 tons, a decrease of 65000 tons compared to the previous month, a decrease of about 13.9%. The cumulative reference for metal silicon production from January to November 2024 is 4.567 million tons, an increase of 1.115 million tons year-on-year, with a growth rate of about 32.3%. Entering December, the expected production of metallic silicon is expected to decrease, and the operating rate of the silicon industry in Sichuan Yunnan region is expected to continue to decline. It is expected that Sichuan region will enter a period of weak operating and production in December. The leading enterprises in Xinjiang have reduced production twice in early December, and the decline in production directly affects the supply of silicon metal. Currently, the overall supply in the market has slightly decreased.

On the demand side: Currently, the trading atmosphere in the silicon metal market is relatively weak, and downstream users have a strong wait-and-see attitude, mainly purchasing on demand, with fewer new orders being transacted.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the metal silicon market is gradually entering the off-season for the whole year, and the on-site operating rate of metal silicon is gradually dropping to the lowest level for the whole year. Currently, the overall supply and demand of the metal silicon market are weak. The metal silicon data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly experience narrow adjustments, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be monitored.