1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide

(Figure: p-value curve of lithium hydroxide product)

2、 Market analysis

As of February 1, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 57333.33 yuan / ton, up 0.58% compared with last Monday (January 25) and 10.26% compared with January 1, according to the data of business club’s block list. Recently, the domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide Market has been running strongly. The price of lithium carbonate in the upstream has been rising continuously. In addition, the downstream stock has been prepared before the festival, the inquiry has increased, and the demand has increased. The industry has no intention to lower down, and the focus of market negotiation has moved up. At present, the quotation of Shanghai Yulun industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 58000 yuan / ton; Zigong tongfarong industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 53000 yuan / ton; Shanghai oujin industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 61000 yuan / ton, and the specific transaction price is discussed separately.

According to the price monitoring of upstream lithium carbonate, the overall market price of lithium carbonate in East China rose rapidly in January 2021, and the price increase rate increased significantly until the end of the month. As of January 31, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 68200 yuan / ton, 36.4% higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 50000 yuan / ton on January 1). On January 31, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 72400 yuan / ton, up 32.6% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (54600 yuan / ton in East China on January 1).

According to the price monitoring of business community, in the list of rise and fall of commodity prices in January 2021, there were 55 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, among which 28 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 30.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities increased were bisphenol A (39.00%), lithium carbonate (36.40%) and DMF (25.96%). There were 31 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 14 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 15.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products with a decrease were hydrochloric acid (- 32.17%), chloroform (- 31.51%) and sulfuric acid (- 25.43%). The average rise and fall this month was 1.85%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the lithium hydroxide analysts of business news agency, the recent rise in the price of upstream lithium carbonate has boosted the mentality of the industry to a certain extent. In addition, the demand side has increased. It is expected that the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide Market will be strong in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

As of January 29, the average 180CST price of domestic fuel oil was 4057.50 yuan / ton (including tax), up 1.25% from the beginning of the week, according to the data of business news agency.

On January 29, the fuel oil commodity index was 82.18, unchanged from yesterday, down 29.10% from 115.91 (October 17, 2018), the highest point in the cycle, and up 78.34% from 46.08, the lowest point on August 15, 2016. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Domestic marine oil raw materials support the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of January 29, the self provided low sulfur quotation of fuel oil 180CST in Zhoushan area was 4100 yuan / ton; the self provided low sulfur quotation of fuel oil 120cst was 4200 yuan / ton; the self provided low sulfur quotation of fuel oil 180CST in Shanghai area was 4050 yuan / ton; and the self provided low sulfur quotation of fuel oil 120cst was 4150 yuan / ton.

International crude oil prices rose this week, supporting fuel oil prices. With the decline of US crude oil inventory, the weakening of US dollar and the severe global epidemic trend, the market is more concerned about the delay of vaccination and new travel restrictions, which may depress demand. This week, WTI crude oil prices rose by 0.13% and Brent crude oil prices fell by 0.56%.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory has decreased and its support for fuel oil has increased. It is understood that Singapore’s enterprise development board (ESG): in the week ending January 27, Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.208 million barrels to a five week low of 20.791 million barrels. The weighted average price of shale oil in Fukuang was 2739 yuan / ton, up 81 yuan / ton from the previous round.

Future forecast: business community energy analysts believe that in the near future, the downstream demand of fuel oil 180CST market is light, and the terminal purchase is mainly on demand. Overall, it is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market may be stable in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of business news agency, the trend of sulfur price in East China continued to rise this week. The average price of sulfur production at the weekend was 1070 yuan / ton, up 2.88% compared with 11040 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 112.58% compared with the same period last year.

This week, the domestic sulfur price went up as a whole. During the week, the inventory of refineries in various regions in China remained low. Downstream factories and traders purchased on demand, the demand was stable, the seller’s shipment was not under pressure, and the quotation of domestic refineries went up. Sinopec Jinling Petrochemical’s solid sulfur price in East China increased by 50 yuan / ton, while other enterprises’ sulfur prices were temporarily stable; Sinopec’s solid sulfur price in Shandong increased by 20 yuan / ton; Sinopec’s solid sulfur price in North China increased by 20 yuan / ton, and the liquid sulfur price in the target market. As of the 29th, the regional price of sulfur in China is as follows:

29 Jan 2005

Sulfur (particle) 1100-1280 yuan / ton in East China

890-940 yuan / ton of sulfur (particle) in North China

Sulfur (particle) 1040-1070 yuan / ton in Shandong Province

The downstream phosphate fertilizer market is good, monoammonium and diammonium are stable and upward, the manufacturers have no pressure to ship, the downstream inquiry enthusiasm is high, and the future market trend is upward. In terms of sulfuric acid, affected by public health incidents, the situation of manufacturers’ delivery is general. At present, they mainly digest the inventory, and the price is partial to sorting operation. As the holiday is approaching, the possibility of downstream stock preparation before the festival is not ruled out. It is expected that the sulfuric acid market will rise slightly in the later period.

Sulfur analysts of business news agency believe that the inventory of domestic refineries remains low, the downstream demand is stable, and the manufacturers’ shipment is smooth. The price of external offer is high, the cargo right of port is concentrated, the offer of cargo holder is rising, the operators in the yard are mainly cautious and wait-and-see, the holiday is approaching, and the downstream may carry out replenishment operation. It is expected that the sulfur market will be reorganized and operated in the later stage.

According to the monitoring of business society, the price index of domestic rare earth market continued to rise, the price of domestic PR nd rare earth continued to rise, the market price of terbium rose to a 10-year high, the price of dysprosium rose to a 5-year high, and the price of domestic rare earth market rose step by step. According to the rare earth plate index of business society, the rare earth index was 470 points on January 27, which was 1000 points higher than the highest point in the cycle (2011-12-06) ）Down 53.00%, up 73.43% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

From the rare earth index chart, it can be clearly seen that the domestic rare earth prices continue to rise, and the rare earth market has frequent changes recently, and the market prices continue to rise. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the domestic prices of praseodymium neodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy, neodymium oxide, neodymium metal, praseodymium oxide and praseodymium metal continue to rise. As of January 28, the domestic price of praseodymium neodymium oxide in rare earth is 455500 yuan / ton; the price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 567500 yuan / ton; the price of neodymium oxide is 570500 yuan / ton; the price of neodymium metal is 697500 yuan / ton; the price of praseodymium oxide The price of praseodymium is 630000 yuan / ton, and the domestic market price of light rare earth continues to rise.

Recently, the demand for permanent magnets has increased significantly. The main rare earth materials of high-performance NdFeB are light rare earth praseodymium oxide, neodymium oxide, heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, which are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy-saving frequency conversion air conditioning, traditional vehicles and other fields. According to the data released by China Automobile Association, China’s auto sales will reach 25.311 million in 2020. Among them, the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 1.367 million, breaking the historical record. Downstream demand rose, and domestic light rare earth market prices continued to rise. Recently, the domestic heavy rare earth market price of terbium series has reached a 10-year high, while the dysprosium series market price has continued to rise.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the domestic price of dysprosium series continued to rise, with the price of dysprosium oxide reaching 2.28 million yuan / ton as of the 28th; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.26 million yuan / ton, and the domestic price of terbium series rose sharply, with the domestic price of Terbium oxide reaching 8.825 million yuan / ton and the price of metal terbium reaching 11.025 million yuan / ton on the 28th, and the price of terbium series rose to the highest level in 10 years. Domestic rare earth purchase and storage plan is a good support for domestic heavy rare earth prices. In the purchase and storage plan, medium and heavy rare earth accounts for a large proportion of annual output, which is expected to have a greater impact on the supply and demand and prices of medium and heavy rare earth. In addition, Myanmar’s customs closure still has a tight impact on domestic import and supply of medium and heavy rare earth. During the “14th five year plan”, domestic rare earth supply may still be limited by the total mining quota It is expected that the supply side high-pressure policies such as cracking down on black and environmental protection will continue, and the increase of overseas supply will be relatively limited in the next three to five years. It is expected that the global supply of rare earth, especially the supply of heavy rare earth, will continue to shrink, the supply and demand will be unbalanced, and the market price of heavy rare earth will continue to rise.

On January 15, 2021, the Ministry of industry and information technology openly solicited opinions on the rare earth management regulations (Draft), releasing the signal of standardizing the rare earth industry management and promoting the high-quality development of the industry. There are 29 pieces in the draft, which clarify the division of responsibilities of rare earth management, the approval system of rare earth mining and smelting separation investment projects, and the total amount index management system. It also emphasizes strengthening the management of the whole industry chain of rare earth, strengthening supervision and management. The state has made corresponding adjustments to the development of rare earth industry. The rare earth industry is developing towards high quality, and the policies are favorable to support the development of rare earth industry The local market price rose sharply.

The recent overseas economic recovery, especially the recovery of advanced manufacturing industry, is expected to drive further growth in demand. The domestic demand for new energy has increased significantly. In addition, the domestic rare earth supply is still tight, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the rare earth market is sharp. Business community analysts expect that the market price of rare earth will continue to rise in the future.

1、 Trend analysis

According to nickel price monitoring of business society, nickel price fell slightly on the 27th, with spot nickel price of 135950 yuan / ton, down 1.79% from 138433.33 yuan / ton on the previous trading day, up 6.1% from the beginning of the year, and up 23.63% from the same period last year. Shanghai nickel mainly opened at 134950 yuan. After the opening, the price fell under pressure and closed at 133710 yuan, down 0.22%. LME3 closed at US $18080, down 0.06%.

As the epidemic raged, the demand was worried, and the nickel price fell overnight. London Metal Exchange (LME) 26 Lun nickel inventory reported 248688 metric tons, 156 metric tons less than the previous day’s inventory. Domestic nickel mines on the supply side are still tight, and the consumption of nickel sulfate is improved due to the sharp increase in the consumption growth of new energy vehicles, but the real battery consumption still needs some time. The construction of ferronickel in Indonesia is on schedule, and there will be an increase in supply in the future. Near the Spring Festival, the maintenance of stainless steel plants is a drag on nickel consumption, and the demand for goods preparation and collection in the downstream is gradually weakening before the festival, so the nickel market may be limited in further upward space.