According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, as of November 19, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol with packaging in mainstream areas was around 11466 yuan / ton, which was 67 yuan / ton lower or 0.58% lower than a week ago; compared with November 1 (the average price was 11266 yuan), the average price was increased by 267 yuan / ton, or 2.37%.

In the first ten days of this month, driven by the price increase of n-propanol plants in Shandong and Jiangsu, the domestic market of n-propanol rose slightly, with the range of 200-500 yuan / ton. Subsequently, the overall trend of the market was stable. Until the middle of this month, some dealers adjusted the quotation of n-propanol according to their own inventory range, with the adjustment range of 100-200 yuan / ton, and the market of n-propanol fell slightly. At present, the domestic n-propanol market adjustment is limited, mainly stable operation. As of November 19, the ex factory price of n-propanol (bulk water) is around 10500-11000 yuan tons, and that of n-propanol (including package) is around 11200-11800 yuan tons. In Nanjing, the ex factory price of n-propanol (bulk water) is 10300-10500 yuan per ton. According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol including packaging in mainstream areas is around 11466 yuan / ton, which is 67 yuan / ton lower or 0.58% lower than a week ago; compared with November 1 (the average price is 11266 yuan), the average price is increased by 267 yuan / ton, or 2.37%.

In terms of raw materials, in the European ethylene market on November 18, FD northwest Europe quoted 716-727 USD / T, down 1 USD / T, CIF northwest Europe quoted 708-717 USD / T, down 1 USD / T, the recent market demand is general. In the Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quoted 850-860 USD / T, CFR Southeast Asia quoted 785-795 USD / T, up 5 USD / T. It is expected that the price of ethylene in Asia will increase in the near future.

Internationally, on November 18, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, with the settlement price of main contracts rising by US $0.36 to US $42.01/barrel. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, the main contract settlement price to 44.34 US dollars / barrel, up 0.59 US dollars.

Just need to purchase propyl alcohol market stability

At present, the demand for domestic n-propanol is normal, and the downstream just needs to purchase. Therefore, the n-propanol Data Engineer of the business club believes that in the short term, the n-propanol market fluctuates in a narrow range, and the overall continuous and stable operation is the main factor. The specific market will also be closely related to the upstream and downstream industrial chain, and the changes in raw materials and demand should be paid attention to.

After a week’s adjustment, Yiwei Chemical Co., Ltd. was significantly higher than RMB 6900% in the domestic market, followed by a sharp increase of more than RMB 6900% in the domestic market, followed by a sharp increase of more than RMB 6900% in the domestic market. The current market spot supply pressure is not big, on the one hand, the port inventory is low and the domestic factory shipping pressure is not big, the sentiment of cargo holders is not reduced. On the other hand, after the sharp rise in the downstream markets such as bisphenol A in the early stage, the upstream products of the industrial chain are well supported.

Trend chart of phenol average price in national market

Trend chart of phenol commodity index in East China (factory offer)

From the upstream point of view, the price of raw material pure benzene continues to rise. It is understood that the domestic price of pure benzene is in the range of 4200-4550 yuan / ton. In terms of raw material propylene, the main transaction volume was RMB 6820-6860 / T, and the profit margin of downstream products was good.

From the downstream demand side, so far, the soaring trend of bisphenol a market has come to an end. The mainstream offers of factories are 18200-19000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream negotiations in East China and North China are also around 18500-18800 yuan / ton. At present, the supply of goods in the market is limited, the inventory is not under pressure, and the shippers make profits and actively ship goods. Although it is difficult to digest downstream after the price rise, the transaction prices of some rigid demand markets are obviously high, and the market low price is hard to find.

From the perspective of business agencies, after a short-term sharp rise, the downstream resistance increased, and the volume of trading was insufficient, and the actual situation needs to be paid attention to. Short term profitable traders will also increase the pace of shipment. It is expected that the market may maintain a stable price. The East China market will negotiate at 6900-7000 yuan / ton.

According to the statistics of the business agency, as of November 16, the price of nylon filament DTY in Jiangsu was 15466 yuan / ton, which was 434 yuan / ton higher than that in the beginning of November, with an increase of 2.80% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.62%; the price of nylon POY was 13360 yuan / ton, which was 280 yuan / ton higher than that in early November, an increase of 2.14%, and a year-on-year decrease of 11.29%; the price of nylon FDY was 16750 yuan / ton, 500 yuan / ton, or 3.08%, compared with the beginning of November It was 13.88% lower than that of the previous year.

In November, the international crude oil price soared. As of November 16, the WTI crude oil settlement price was 41.34 US dollars / barrel, 14.29% higher than the price at the beginning of November. Last week, the listing price of pure benzene was raised twice to 4000 yuan / ton, up 250 yuan / ton. The supply of cyclohexanone is relatively abundant, and the orders are flat at the beginning of the month, and the pressure of shipment is still under pressure. However, due to the strong cost support, the price of cyclohexanone has increased significantly. Caprolactam is on the rise with high cost on the one hand, and some enterprises have maintenance plan in the later stage, so the supply of goods is also tight. In the same month, Sinopec raised the listing price of caprolactam twice to 10800 yuan / ton, an increase of 700 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the month, downstream staple fiber and other enterprises mainly digested and prepared inventory. The listing price of caprolactam in the upstream rose sharply, while the downstream chase up the price of goods to support, which stimulated the price of PA6 to go up.

At the beginning of the month, nylon manufacturers took a small action and took a wait-and-see price. However, the price of raw materials has increased significantly. Recently, nylon manufacturers have warned again that due to the rising cost, nylon has the expectation of increasing the price, and customers with demand will place orders as soon as possible to lock in profits. On the one hand, businesses stimulate marketing; on the other hand, raw materials do rise sharply. With the consumption of inventory, the price increase is imminent.

According to the analysts of the business agency, in the first ten days of November, crude oil rose sharply, and all links of nylon industry chain increased to varying degrees, and the production cost center of nylon manufacturers shifted upward. However, the order support is general, and the pricing is relatively conservative. Some manufacturers’ price increase dates are delayed, with the price increases ranging from 200 to 500 yuan / ton. It is not likely that manufacturers will continue to raise their prices in the peak season. It is expected that prices will remain stable in the near future.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic PP market rose steadily in the second week of November, and it was operating positively. Spot prices of various brands have increased. As of November 13, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8316.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.05% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

PP upstream propylene market remained stable in the first half of October and plummeted by more than 10% in the second half of October. Since November 1, there has been a correction in prices. Last week, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price dropped slightly, then recovered and stabilized, with 6868.27 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; 6843.73 yuan / ton on Tuesday; and 6891.91 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a weekly increase of 0.34% and a weekly amplitude of 0.70%. On the whole, the current turnover of propylene market is between 6750 yuan / ton and 7200 yuan / ton, the inventory of manufacturers is controllable, and the shipment situation is still relatively ideal. The crude oil price is fair, and the downstream market is more favorable, which can achieve certain support. Moreover, the propylene price has a large decline in the early stage, and has a certain rise last week. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price may start to stabilize in the near future.

The current high level consolidation of propylene has certain support for the cost side of PP. Business agency monitoring data show that last week PP (drawing) market performance is more stable. The downstream demand is fair, and there is also support for the spot price. In terms of inventory, at the end of the superposition of early November, petrochemicals inventory had a large accumulation beyond expectations, and the two oil inventories increased rapidly. Driven by the rise of futures last week, the market transaction atmosphere turned warm and the inventory returned to the low level smoothly. As some brands are still tight spot, there is support in the market. In the near future, PP may continue the trend of positive consolidation.

According to the monitoring data of domestic fiber traders (z833.30t) as of November, the price of domestic fiber manufacturers was about 33.33 yuan. The average price was up 60.0% from the beginning of the week. Last week, the market of fiber and drawing materials was synchronous, showing a stable trend of consolidation. Due to the large price increase in the early stage, the current downstream mentality tends to be cautious. However, the contradiction between supply and demand of polyolefins has not been revealed due to the consumption peak of the double 11 Shopping Festival. In addition, PP futures rose a lot, PP (fiber) is expected to continue to rise in the near future.

PP melt blown material market recent finishing mainly, domestic PP melt blown material market spot price is still reduced. According to the quotation data received by some enterprises, at present, the products of various quality grades of meltblown materials at home and abroad have been reduced slightly. The reference quotation of y1500 of Maoming Petrochemical Company is 10900 yuan / ton, and that of ExxonMobil 1500 melt index is about 11700 yuan / ton. At present, the domestic epidemic situation is generally stable, and the demand has increased slightly in the near future. The trend of the second outbreak of overseas epidemic is obvious, many countries announced to close the city again, the non-woven fabric in the application of medical protection is sought after again, the demand is expected to rise, and the production capacity of China is expected. However, the profits of domestic meltblown cloth and material manufacturing market are seriously diluted, and it is expected that the decline of melt blown materials will be narrowed due to the influence of expanding demand in the near future.

Future forecast

PP business agency analysts believe: in the second week of November, the domestic PP spot market is generally stable. The upstream propylene market stopped falling and turned warm, and the price callback supported the PP cost side. PP (drawing) is not in danger of accumulation, and the price is stable. PP (fiber) market shock finishing, PP (melt blown) decline has a slowing trend. Recently, the consumption of Shopping Festival stimulated the domestic market, and PP futures rose sharply, which led to the spot price adjustment together. Downstream factory stock purchase just need to operate, wait-and-see atmosphere gradually rises, trading volume is not seen. PP spot is expected to continue to strengthen in the near future.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business agency, the market of potassium sulfate in Hebei is stable this week, and the output of Mannheim potassium sulfate is about 2550 yuan / ton for 50% powder and 2650 yuan / ton for 50% granules and 52% water soluble powder. From the start-up of potassium sulfate plant, the operating rate of Mannheim potassium sulfate plant continued to be high, basically maintained at the level of about 70-80%. Because the production capacity of resource-based potassium sulfate plants is relatively limited, and most of them have been sold in advance, the next four quarters mainly focus on the early order shipment and tobacco fertilizer supply. From the traditional market, after the end of autumn and before the start of winter, most of the potassium sulfate plants are in the state of increasing inventory in the off-season. However, this year, under the condition that the manufacturers continue to flexibly receive orders, the inventory in large factories is at a low level, so the price of potassium sulfate also has the conditions for a small increase.

3、 Future forecast

Potassium sulphate analyst of business club thinks: at present, the price of potassium chloride has been at a relatively high level, and potassium sulfate began to callback after a period of trial. Under the support of cost, it is expected that the price of potassium sulfate will rise slightly on the basis of stable consumption in the future.