Price trend:

According to the data of business club’s block list, the ABS market is generally weak in the near future, and most brands of products have been reduced. As of May 26, the average price of general ABS mainstream offer was about 18300 yuan / ton, which was 0.41% lower than that in early April and 52.50% higher than that in the same period of last year.

Factor analysis:

In terms of raw material styrene, the styrene market has been significantly weakened recently. Upstream crude oil, pure benzene and ethylene fell. Night market styrene soft down, although domestic styrene supply has increased, but the spot terminal inventory low, spot supply tension to maintain. On the downstream side, the prices of the three major downstream companies are temporarily stable, the terminal factories just need to purchase, and the market is short of gas. In the near future, styrene cost support is weakened, and it is expected that the market will continue to be weak in the short term.

As for upstream butadiene, the domestic butadiene market has been mainly consolidated recently. Business intention to stabilize the price offer, the downstream inquiry weak, there are some low price transaction in the market, dragging the market. High price source transaction is not smooth, short-term domestic butadiene market has no obvious direction, business community butadiene analysts expect the market will continue to consolidate.

ABS cost side market fluctuates, the overall support for ABS cost side weakened. In addition, the market is dominated by the bad external market, which has a drag on the domestic spot price. The positive effect of centralized maintenance of pre production units on the supply side is gradually exhausted, and ABS, which has officially entered the off-season of consumption, is difficult to boost the demand. Downstream enterprises just need to reduce, at the same time, due to the recent downward channel, buy up do not buy down mentality, weaken trading momentum.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: ABS spot market fell recently, the current price position has fallen below the price of aquatic products at the beginning of the month. The trend of raw materials has its own ups and downs, among which styrene has a larger decline, and the overall cost side of ABS is bad. The current round of ABS decline is due to both the factors of falling styrene and the increasing resistance of off-season shipment in the industry. Superimposed on the external market is also bad led, it is expected that the recent ABS spot market may continue to be short.

This week, the spot tin market price (5.17-5.21) rose and then fell. The average price of domestic market was 198100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 195350 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly decline of 1.39%.

On May 23, the tin commodity index was 99.51, unchanged from yesterday, down 2.17% from 101.72 (2021-05-18), the highest point in the cycle, and up 132.17% from 42.86, the lowest point on December 09, 2015（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

In terms of futures, tight overseas supply this week strongly supported LME Lunxi’s price. Lunxi’s inventory continued to be low, and the market supply was tight, which supported the external metal price. Driven by the external market, Shanghai Tin’s price fluctuated at a high level this week..

In the spot market, the number of miners in Myanmar is higher, the mining speed is slower, and the import volume is lower. This week, due to the increase of export sources, domestic tin ingot inventory is low, supporting domestic prices. In terms of smelters, some manufacturers will stop production this weekend, which will continue to affect domestic production. In the case of tight supply in the future, tin ingot prices will be supported again.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 20th week of 2021 (5.17-5.21), there were five kinds of commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month, and the top three commodities were lead (3.20%), silicon metal (1.82%) and titanium concentrate (1.03%). There were 16 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and 3 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 13.6% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three products were magnesium (- 6.85%), aluminum (- 6.33%) and praseodymium neodymium alloy (- 6.30%). The average rise and fall this week was – 1.95%. Most commodities fell this week.

In the future, the business news agency believes that although the data shows that tin concentrate imports have improved to a certain extent in March, the closing of Ruili port at the end of March is bound to affect the import situation in the near future, and the tight supply at the ore end will continue. The current supply and demand of tin market is weak, and it is expected that it will continue to fluctuate in the future.

In the future, the business community believes that the low foreign inventory situation is difficult to be alleviated in a short time, the domestic tin ingot export volume is increasing, and the domestic production is limited in the near future. It is expected that the basic support of tin ingot Market in the future will be strong, and the behavior will be dominant in the shock. However, the five departments have recently interviewed domestic non-ferrous and steel and iron enterprises to maintain the price order of the bulk commodity market, so the upward space will not be too large.

Trade name: yellow phosphorus

Latest price May 24: 23000 yuan / ton

Analysis points: in late May, the price of yellow phosphorus rose rapidly. Affected by drought, lack of water and power restriction in Yunnan, the power of yellow phosphorus enterprises in some areas was less than 20%! Recently, power rationing has not been alleviated, but has become more and more serious. More yellow phosphorus plants are shut down, the shortage of spot goods is aggravating, and some manufacturers have temporarily stopped making external quotations. On the demand side, the downstream glyphosate price continued to rise, which was acceptable to the high price of yellow phosphorus, and played a certain role in boosting the price rise of yellow phosphorus. So far, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 25000 yuan / ton; The mainstream price in Sichuan is about 23000-25000 yuan / ton; The mainstream price in Guizhou is about 21000 yuan / ton.

Yellow phosphorus analysts of business news agency believe that power rationing leads to supply contraction, and the price of yellow phosphorus is expected to continue to rise in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of May 21, the reference price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 17200 yuan / ton, compared with the reference price of 18066 yuan / ton on May 14, the average price decreased by 866 yuan / ton, down 4.61% on the seventh day; Compared with May 1 (reference price 18100 yuan / ton), the average price decreased by 900 yuan / ton, or 4.79%.

High end price of domestic propylene glycol market dropped sharply by 4.61% in seven days

This week, the overall domestic propylene glycol market showed a downward trend. At the beginning of the week, the market transaction atmosphere was general, the price of raw material cyclopropane declined in terms of cost, and the support for propylene glycol weakened. On the 18th, the offer price of propylene glycol factory was slightly reduced by about 200 yuan / ton, and then the overall market performance was poor, the demand of downstream industry was poor, the domestic atmosphere was general, and the impact of shipping schedule and downward trend on export was also weakened. On the 20th, some high-end offer factories and some dealers of propylene glycol in Shandong lowered the ex factory price of propylene glycol by 600-1000 yuan / ton. Towards the weekend, the propylene glycol market maintained a narrow and stable operation. So far, the reference price of propylene glycol in Shandong is around 16700-17500 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu is around 17000-17400 yuan / ton. The average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol is 17200 yuan / ton, which is 866 yuan / ton lower than that on May 14 (18066 yuan / ton), a decrease of 4.61% on the seventh day.

Upstream, this week, the upstream raw material propylene oxide market overall weak downward, the market wait-and-see mood is heavy, the current overall operating rate is still high, downstream new orders generally, follow-up on demand. As of May 21, the reference price of propylene oxide was 18133 yuan / ton, down 4.06% compared with 18900 yuan / ton on May 1

Fundamentals are weak, propylene glycol may continue to decline in the future

At present, on the whole, the fundamental operation of propylene glycol market is weak, the downstream demand is poor, and the overall domestic trading atmosphere is general. Therefore, business community propylene glycol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market is weak, and the market price may have the risk of going down again.

Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic POM market was active in the third week of May, with the spot prices of various brands rising at a high level. As of May 21, the average offer price of the POM injection molding sample enterprises in the business community was about 15900 yuan / ton, up 5.76% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

POM upstream formaldehyde, the recent domestic formaldehyde market is weak, Shandong formaldehyde market fell. The atmosphere of floor trading is relatively cold, the transaction situation is general, and the spot price shows a slight downward trend. The price of raw material methanol mainly fluctuated and fell, while the support for formaldehyde cost side weakened. The raw material market of the downstream sheet yard continues to be at a high level. Due to the increase of various costs, the start-up of the sheet yard is gradually tightening, and the demand for formaldehyde is limited. Business community formaldehyde analysts expect that the recent Shandong formaldehyde prices or below the main drop.

After the upstream price rose, it fell back, and the support of POM cost side was weakened. At present, the domestic POM spot price range is still at a high level. The reference price of Tianye Chemical M90 is about 15700 yuan / ton, which is for negotiation. Yuntianhua M90 ex factory reference price quoted 16900 yuan / ton, firm offer negotiation. The POM unit of Shenhua Ningshan coal works normally. The reference price of mc90 is about 15100 yuan / ton, with cash withdrawal. Compared with the previous period, there were considerable increases. On the supply side, the performance of short-term market supply continued the compact pattern. Recently, Gung mine completed the equipment maintenance work, but the recovery of industry operation rate was limited. The supply contraction brought by last month’s enterprise burden reduction is still affecting the market. On the floor, the traders are reluctant to sell, and they are willing to offer high prices. In addition, the previous rise in formaldehyde, domestic POM by multiple positive blessing and high. The downstream follow-up situation is relatively slow, and the terminal factory’s stock operation tends to just need to replenish the warehouse and take as needed. With the cooling of trading, POM began to stagnate in the second half of the week.

Future forecast

Analysts from business news agency said: in the third week of May, the trend of domestic POM market was sideways after rising. The upstream formaldehyde and methanol have dropped, the cost support of POM has been weakened, the tight supply pattern has not been improved, and the supply side is good for the market. Under the pressure of high cost, the profit of downstream enterprises is compressed, which conflicts with the high price of goods, and the orders are generally small. The high level of spot affected the consumption of POM, which entered the supply and demand game market and leveled in the second half of the week. POM market is expected to continue to run in a narrow range in the near future.