1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of baking soda has been mainly stable in the near future. From the beginning of the week to the end of the week, the average price in the domestic market is 1616.67 yuan / ton. On April 22, the commodity index of baking soda was 107.30, flat with yesterday, down 11.82% from 121.68 (2020-10-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 21.56% from 88.27, the lowest point on December 22, 2020（ Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to September 1, 2020

2、 Market analysis

According to the news agency, the price of sodium bicarbonate is stable for the time being, and the shipment in the downstream market is acceptable. At present, the price of sodium bicarbonate in Henan is about 1550-1700 yuan, which is the mainstream quotation in the market. The downstream demand is acceptable. It is expected that the price will be slightly consolidated in the near future. The price of baking soda in Hebei is about 1550-1650 yuan / ton, which is the mainstream price in the market, and the downstream demand is acceptable.

In terms of raw materials: according to the monitoring data of the business community, soda ash in East China has been running steadily and dynamically, and the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1700-1850 yuan / ton. The main market price of light soda is about 1750-1850 yuan / ton. The main market price of light soda is about 1650-1750 yuan / ton. Overall, the short-term soda price consolidation operation.

Demand side: downstream medicine, textile and food mainly purchase sodium bicarbonate on demand, and the price of sodium bicarbonate has been consolidated recently. Analysts of business news agency believe that: in the near future, the overall situation of raw material soda ash is stable with small movements, mainly with narrow fluctuation. The price of downstream glass market rises or drives the demand for soda ash, but there is still a price game between glass market and soda ash, and the short-term situation of soda ash is still consolidation. On the whole, the price of baking soda may still maintain a small consolidation trend in the short term, and the specific situation depends on the downstream market demand.

Recently, the domestic market of cyclohexanone rose slightly. Cost positive boost continued, downstream procurement cautious. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, as of April 22, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone market was 10420 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 8.92% and a year-on-year increase of 88.77%.

Region, price

East China 10500-10700 yuan / ton, cash delivery

South China 11000 yuan / ton, cash delivery

Shandong Province 10200-10300 yuan / ton, cash delivery

In terms of raw materials, Sinopec increased the price of pure benzene by 300 yuan / ton, and implemented 7300 yuan / ton, which was implemented by all its refineries. The price is effective from April 21. Downstream, Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam price this week rose 200 to 13900 yuan / ton (liquid premium products were accepted in June).

The price of pure benzene continues to rise with strong cost support, but the supply of cyclohexanone increases. Cyclohexanone analysts of business community expect that the domestic cyclohexanone market will be mainly on the wait-and-see side in the short term.

Recently, the price of domestic refined oil has risen strongly, and the price of the oil in mid April has increased by a large margin. According to the data of business society, the price of 92 gas of No.21 is 7414.8 yuan / ton, and the price of the oil in mid April is up 6.47%; 0 × diesel oil price is 5800 yuan / ton, and the price of diesel oil rises 4.17% in mid April. The international crude oil price has boosted. In addition, the in-situ equipment maintenance increases, supply is tight, and the price of finished oil has risen strongly.

International oil: Yemen Husser armed forces claimed to attack Saudi oil refining facilities, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East was tense again; The International Energy Agency (IEA) took the lead and published monthly report, adding a fire to the oil market. On the 14th, IEA raised its global oil demand forecast in 2021. The view is that there are signs that the global economic recovery is faster than previously expected, especially strong demand in the United States and China; The EIA released the U; In addition, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also raised global oil demand expectations, and it is expected that oil demand will increase by 5.95 million barrels / day in 2021, up 70000 barrels / day from last month. The increase in demand has provided support for OPEC’s increase in production. Even if OPEC + gradually increases production by more than 2 million B / D in the next three months, oil inventories are expected to decline. International crude oil was supported by various favorable factors. Crude oil rose significantly in mid April. As of 20, the settlement price of main contracts in WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was $62.67/barrel, and that of Brent crude oil futures market was $66.57/barrel.

Good supply and demand of refined oil: since April, after the maintenance of the atmospheric and vacuum unit in Kolida, the first unit overhaul of HSBC Petrochemical has not started, and the main refinery is the shutdown and maintenance of the whole plant of Dagang Petrochemical. The refinery operating rate has declined, and the supply side is in a tight trend. In terms of gasoline demand, the domestic temperature is suitable, and the radius of people’s travel has increased. In addition, the May 1st holiday is approaching, and there is a certain demand for stock and stock in the market. In terms of diesel oil, the demand for diesel oil in engineering infrastructure, logistics and transportation industries continued to pick up, and the demand for diesel oil terminals was strongly supported. Positive demand superimposed, domestic oil prices rose.

By the middle of April, the average starting load of atmospheric and vacuum unit of domestic main refineries is about 75%. The resumption of main refineries and maintenance refineries coexist in April-May, and the supply side may not change much.

Chenling, an analyst with refined oil at the business agency, believes that the closing price of international crude oil has not changed much. At present, the domestic crude oil change rate is at a positive low level, the demand for steam and diesel oil continues to be good, and there is a certain support in the market fundamentals. It is expected that the price of finished oil will still rise slightly in the later period.

According to the data monitored by the business society, as of April 20, the average price of domestic power grade lithium iron phosphate was 50000.00 yuan / ton, increased by 5.26% compared with the same period last month, increased by 4.17% compared with the beginning of April, and the overall increase in April reached 2000 yuan / ton.

Increasing installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate

From 2015 to 2019, the production and sales scale of new energy vehicles in China will increase from more than 300000 to more than 1.2 million. In 2021, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate power battery in China will reach 41.8gwh, and the share of lithium iron phosphate in the power battery market will be between 40% and 50%. The sales volume of hot new energy vehicles will continue to increase. From 2021 to 2023, it will maintain a steady growth, and the heat will not be reduced, according to Cui Weifang, Secretary General of the passenger Federation According to Dongshu statistics, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles from July to September all hit a record high in the same period, and lithium iron phosphate is favored by more and more new energy vehicle enterprises.

Product specifications and quotation (ten thousand yuan / ton) date

Lithium iron phosphate ﹣ power ﹣ 4.8-5.2 ﹣ April 20

Lithium iron phosphate ﹣ energy storage ﹣ 4.2-4.6 ﹣ April 20

Lithium carbonate ﹣ industrial grade ﹣ 8.1-8.5 April 20

Lithium carbonate battery grade 8.8-9.2 April 20

Advantages of LiFePO4 battery

At a higher temperature, the ternary cathode materials begin to release oxygen and heat, which seriously affects the safety of the battery. The heat release temperature and degree of LiFePO4 are significantly better than those of ternary materials. With the maturity of research and development technology, LiFePO4 battery has the advantages of low cost, high safety and price compared with ternary materials. The heat of new energy vehicles continues to rise, The market share of LiFePO4 battery is expected to increase again as the industry competition intensifies and leading enterprises speed up production expansion.

The lithium carbonate in the upstream is rising steadily

From the second half of 2020 to March 2021, the market price of lithium carbonate continued to heat up. In April, the market price of lithium carbonate was slightly stable, slightly upward, with relatively small fluctuation. Most enterprises quoted basically the same price as the previous period, and the situation of short supply has been significantly improved. Lithium carbonate index: April 19 The lithium acetate commodity index was 221.66, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.28% from 405.10 (2018-01-07), the highest point in the cycle, and up 124.94% from 98.54, the lowest point on October 16, 2014. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

Business community LiFePO4 analysts believe that: in the short term, the price of LiFePO4 will maintain a stable trend and the supply and demand will be balanced. (to get more information about goods and to grasp the price of commodities, welcome to subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community, the market is the opportunity).

Trade name: SBR 1502

Latest price (April 19): 14066 yuan / ton

Analysis points: according to the monitoring of business society, the domestic SBR price was 14066 yuan / ton on the 19th, down 1.00% from the previous day. Since April, styrene prices have rebounded slightly and butadiene prices have fallen sharply, and cost side has mainly affected the vacancy. According to the monitoring of business society, as of April 19, styrene price was 9283 yuan / ton, up 5.89% compared with the beginning of the month; butadiene price was 6696 yuan / T, down 9.69% from the beginning of the month. The increase of downstream stock is not obvious, inquiry is not positive, and the price of Tianjiao is lower, which leads to the decrease of the ex factory price and market price of SBR. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of April 19, the factory price of Jihua butylene 1502, a Northeast Sales Company of CNPC, was reported at 14000 yuan / ton.

Post market forecast: at present, the cost and demand of SBR are weak, and the low level of Tianjiao, it is expected that the SBR will continue to decline slightly in the later period.