1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, the nickel price rose sharply this week. As of February 11, the spot nickel price was 176283.33 yuan / ton, up 1.16% from 174266.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 28.49% year-on-year.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of the business society, in the past 12 weeks, the nickel price has risen by 7, fell by 5 and leveled by 1. The recent trend of nickel price is still dominated by strong shock.

Nickel industry chain

Supply and demand: affected by the rainy season, the Philippine supply is limited, LME inventory continues to decline, and the prospect of new energy demand is optimistic. At present, the fundamental changes are still limited, the global inventory continues to decline, the domestic Spring Festival holiday has just ended, most ferronickel plants have not fully resumed production, the overall output has increased slowly, and the short-term support for nickel price is strong. The overall nickel production capacity in Russia will continue to increase slowly, and there will be no shortage of nickel in the domestic electrolytic plate market.

To sum up: the supply is tight and the inventory is low. With the resumption of work after the festival, the demand increases. It is expected that the short-term shock of nickel is still strong.

Commodity name: DMF latest price (February 10): 16600.00 yuan / ton

The price of DMF is stable and the focus of negotiation is stable. Compared with the same period last week, the price of DMF is slightly lower, and the mainstream price is about 16600 yuan / ton. At present, the manufacturer runs at a high price, and the overall market is stable. At present, there is no pressure on inventory, and the downstream follows up the purchase.

Future forecast: it is expected that the DMF market will operate smoothly in the short term.

Trade name: TDI

Latest price (February 9): 19425 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today, the average price of TDI market in East China increased by 1.97% compared with the previous working day, and the domestic TDI market continued to operate strongly. Domestic TDI units started at a low level, Gansu Yinguang and Yantai Juli units have not been restarted, Wanhua Fujian units operate unsteadily, the market spot filling is slow, overseas TDI supply is tight, the price is high, the on-site goods holders have a strong mentality of supporting the market, and the TDI market operates at a high level. At present, the quotation range in East China is about 18500-20000 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 19000-20500 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

Future forecast: in the later stage, the TDI market is relatively strong, and the specific attention is paid to the market supply and downstream follow-up.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, the spot nickel rose slightly after the year. As of the 8th, the spot price of nickel was reported at 176250 yuan / ton, up 3.8% from the previous trading day and 14.18% from the beginning of the year.

The US dollar weakened, and Lun Ni closed up 2.09% overnight; LME inventory continued to be removed, which exacerbated the concern of supply shortage. The demand for replenishment after the festival increased the transaction rate, and the nickel price may maintain the rise. In terms of supply, the price of high nickel iron rebounded, and the mainstream transaction price was 1400-1430 yuan / nickel. With the implementation of Indonesia’s high nickel matte project, the potential pressure on the supply of nickel sulfate raw materials increases. In terms of demand, the recent arrival of stainless steel is not much, and Hongwang cold rolling is mainly used for warehouse delivery. The accumulation of stainless steel social warehouse is limited, and the prospect of new energy vehicles continues to be good. In terms of inventory, explicit inventory at home and abroad almost fell to the lowest range in history. Nickel prices are expected to remain strong in the short term.

On February 7, DOP price was temporarily stable

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the DOP price was temporarily stable on February 7, and the DOP market was temporarily stable. On February 7, the DOP price was 11425 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the DOP price of 11425 yuan / ton before the festival; The cost is temporarily stable, and the DOP market is temporarily stable.

Key points of analysis

After the festival, the price of raw material isooctanol was temporarily stable, the price of phthalic anhydride was strong and temporarily stable, and the cost of DOP was temporarily stable; Downstream plastic PVC prices fluctuated and adjusted, and the demand was temporarily stable; The market just needs to purchase, and the downstream replenishment after the festival. The demand stabilizes after a short rise.

Future expectations

The cost is temporarily stable, the demand is expected to increase, the upward momentum of DOP remains, the downward pressure is weakened, and the DOP price tends to stabilize in the future.