New features of global upstream oil and gas resources M&A Market

In 2018, the global upstream oil and gas resources M&A market failed to continue the “warming” trend. The total amount of M&A transactions in the whole year was only 110 billion US dollars, down about 14% from 2017, the lowest value since 2004; the total amount of M&A transactions was 344, down 11% from 2017. During this period, different types of mergers and acquisitions were carried out in different regions of the world based on their own business strategies, which made the upstream oil and gas resources mergers and acquisitions market present new characteristics.

Characteristics 1: Private equity and other non-traditional upstream oil and gas industry background of the main performance of the trading, various types of international oil companies trading amount has been significantly reduced.

Private equity and other non-traditional upstream oil and gas industry background trading entities have maintained their active performance in the global oil and gas resources M&A market in recent years, with a total transaction value of more than 70 billion US dollars. Among them, North America, which has a large number of small and medium-sized oil enterprises and a perfect market-oriented trading system, is the most active region for non-traditional upstream oil and gas industry background trading subjects, such as private capital. Europe is also the region with more non-traditional upstream oil and gas industry background trading subjects such as private capital in 2018.

In terms of international oil giants, 20 mergers and acquisitions of upstream oil and gas assets took place in 2018, the highest in recent three years, but the transaction amount was only 12 billion US dollars, half of that in 2017. Among them, BP’s $10.5 billion “package” acquisition of BHP Billiton’s unconventional assets in the United States was the largest acquisition of international oil giants in that year.

For large and medium-sized international oil companies, 26 mergers and acquisitions of upstream oil and gas assets took place in 2018, the highest since 2014, but the transaction amount was only US$23 billion, far less than US$32 billion in 2017.

On the part of National Petroleum Corporation, in 2018, the transaction value of participating in upstream oil and gas assets M&A activities reached 2.7 billion US dollars, slightly higher than that of 17.7 billion US dollars in 2017, but still remained at the lowest level in nearly 10 years.

Characteristic 2: Mergers and acquisitions of oil and gas resources in the upper reaches of the Middle East and Asia-Pacific region have increased significantly, while the United States remains strong. In the Middle East, upstream M&A transactions in 2018 amounted to $3.1 billion, much higher than the $100 million in 2017; the total number of transactions was 10, the highest in nearly five years. Among them, Shell’s $1.5 billion divestiture of crude oil assets in West Gurna Oilfield and heavy oil assets in Amman Meihezna, Iraq, is the most remarkable project in the region. In the Asia-Pacific region, upstream M&A transactions in 2018 amounted to $8.7 billion, up more than 60% from 2017, a new high since 2014, but the number of transactions was only 25, down from 30 in 2017. Australian LNG-related upstream assets are the hotspot of mergers and acquisitions in the Asia-Pacific region throughout the year, with a total value of more than US$3 billion, also the highest since 2014. Among them, Santos Petroleum Company acquired Australian assets of Quadrant Energy Company, which is the largest upstream M&A activity in the Asia-Pacific region in 2018, with a background of private equity investment of $2.15 billion.

North America continues a dominant trend in the global oil and gas resources M&A market in recent years. In 2018, the total amount of transactions was about 86 billion US dollars and 218 transactions accounted for 78% and 63.4% of the global market in that year, respectively. In 2018, the largest oil and gas resources M&A transactions occurred in North America, with a total amount of more than 51 billion US dollars. Overall, North American shale oil and gas, Canadian oil sands and offshore oil and gas-related assets in the Gulf of Mexico are the focus of market attention. Among them, the total amount of mergers and acquisitions of oil and gas related assets in North America is more than $71 billion, mainly concentrated in the Permian Basin of the United States, Shale belts such as Barken, Eagleford and Montenegro Shale Belt of Canada.

Characteristic 3: The average annual evaluation of oil price in M&A transactions is lower than that in previous years. The evaluation of oil price in merger and acquisition usually refers to the long-term balance of payments price under the 10% discount rate of the project. According to Wood McKenzie’s estimates, the global oil and gas acquisition price in 2018 was $64 per barrel, which was significantly lower than the annual average of $68 per barrel in 2017. The main reason for the gloomy trend of oil price in 2018 is that the global oil and gas resources M&A market does not look forward to the rising prospects of international oil price in the future. Firstly, the total cost of shale oil barrel in the United States has been greatly reduced, which has led to a higher level of production growth at the current oil price level; secondly, global environmental governance and energy efficiency improvements have limited the expansion of crude oil demand market, which will have a restraining effect on international oil price rise in the future; thirdly, the appreciation of the US dollar is expected to restrain oil price growth from the pricing system; lastly, in recent years, it will restrain oil price growth. The expanding market scale of electric vehicles, shared travel and other industries will also have a greater negative impact on the rise of international oil prices.

Fourth, unconventional oil and gas resources such as shale oil are still hot spots in the global upstream oil and gas resources M&A market. In 2018, the amount of global unconventional oil and gas resources M&A transactions represented by North American shale oil and gas, oil sands, etc. was basically the same as in 2017, totaling about 78.6 billion US dollars, accounting for 70% of the total global oil and gas resources M&A transactions in that year. Among them, shale oil-related M&A transactions amount to more than $60 billion, the highest value in the past decade. Permian Basin is still the core area of M&A transactions in 2018, but its spillover effect in technology and management has also increased the number and amount of shale oil-related M&A activities in other shale zones. Among them, the total value of shale oil-related assets M&A transactions in Permian Basin is about 28.8 billion US dollars, accounting for half of the total scale of North America’s shale oil-related M&A transactions; the total value of Shale oil-related assets M&A transactions in Eaglford Shale Area is about 15.5 billion US dollars, which is the highest in nearly ten years; and the total value of M&A transactions in COOP/STACK and Barken Shale Area are respectively. Both $8.3 billion and $2.7 billion are higher than in 2017.

Although the global upstream oil and gas resources M&A market in 2018 presents new characteristics different from those in previous years, on the whole, it is still an indisputable business focus of the upstream sector of China’s petroleum enterprises; actively embracing the global upstream oil and gas resources M&A market, making full use of M&A activities to obtain high-quality assets, is still an important hand for China’s petroleum companies to ensure the safety of domestic oil and gas supply at this stage. Paragraph. Therefore, China’s oil companies should grasp the time window and do a good job in the research of oil and gas resources M&A, especially in the judgment of international oil price trend and the screening of potential M&A targets; on this basis, through dynamic adjustment of trading strategies, continue to optimize the asset portfolio, and comprehensively improve the development quality and efficiency of the upstream plate.