According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fluctuated and rose this week (11.24-11.28), with an average market price of 293810 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 300610 yuan/ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 2.31%.
This week, the trend of tin prices first rose and then fell. From the beginning of the week to the middle of the week, prices continued to rise due to expectations of possible tightening of supply and support from low inventory conditions. Especially on Thursday, tin prices rose sharply, with the price of the main contract for Shanghai tin breaking through the important threshold of 300000 yuan/ton at one point. On Friday, futures prices continued to rise, but the high prices in the spot market suppressed purchasing demand, resulting in poor trading and a divergence between spot and futures prices.
On the raw material side, the resumption process of tin ore production in Myanmar is relatively slow, resulting in an unsatisfactory improvement in domestic raw material supply. In this situation, the consistently low processing fees have limited the production enthusiasm of refineries. At the same time, there have been some unstable factors in Indonesia’s exports, which have kept the explicit inventory of refined tin at a low level worldwide.
On the supply side, the overall production situation of tin ingot smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi has stabilized at a high level this week. Production in Yunnan has recovered significantly, while in Jiangxi it has been slightly weak. The tight supply of raw materials is a common constraint on the release of production capacity in both regions.
On the demand side, although traditional sectors such as consumer electronics and tinplate have shown slightly weak consumption performance, the long-term demand expectations brought by emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers provide support for tin prices, and the operating rate of tin solder enterprises shows a slight rebound trend.
comprehensive analysis
At present, the tight supply of raw materials in the mining sector has not changed, while tin prices have risen sharply, which has brought a certain degree of impact to the spot market. Some downstream and terminal enterprises are concerned that tin prices will continue to rise, so they carried out a small amount of replenishment operations yesterday and made purchases to meet rigid demand. However, other downstream and terminal enterprises still choose to adopt a wait-and-see attitude in the face of the current price level. Overall, it is expected that tin prices will continue to fluctuate at high levels in the future.
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