According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate has been fluctuating at a historical low price recently. As of June 10th, the benchmark price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate was 60066 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.77% from 78800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and a decrease of 44.15% from 107600 yuan/ton in the same period last year; The benchmark price for domestic industrial grade lithium carbonate trading companies is 58266 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38% from 94000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and a decrease of 43.43% from 103000 yuan/ton in the same period last year.
Supply side incremental stability
From the perspective of spodumene: There has been no reduction in production in overseas mines, and many mines have achieved cost optimization. Newly launched mines in China are still in the stage of increasing production, and it is expected that the production of spodumene will continue to grow.
From the perspective of mica: mica prices continue to decline, and domestic lithium mica production capacity is steadily released, coupled with the concentration of imported mineral sources arriving in Hong Kong. It is expected that the supply of mica will also continue to grow.
From the perspective of salt lakes, domestic salt lakes maintain seasonal high production, while overseas projects experience a ramp up in production and a steady increase in import volume.
There has been an increase in demand for exports
The bilateral easing of tariffs between China and the United States has led to a rebound in market sentiment, with exporters voluntarily reducing their inventory. Overall, the performance has been better than expected, providing support for lithium carbonate prices. The energy storage market is improving, and according to the prediction of the Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance (CNESA), the cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage in China will grow rapidly from 2024 to 2030. In an ideal scenario, the cumulative installed capacity will reach 313.9GW by 2030, with an average annual compound growth rate of 37.1%; In a conservative scenario, the cumulative installed capacity by 2030 will be 221.2 GW, with an average annual compound growth rate of 30.4%.
The data analyst of Business Society’s lithium carbonate believes that although there is some support on the demand side of lithium carbonate, there is an increase on the supply side, and the overall surplus situation has not changed. It is expected that the short-term price will continue to fluctuate, and specific market changes still need to be monitored.
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