According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA spot market has shown a slight increase since May. As of May 9th, the average market price in East China was 4750 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.63% from the beginning of the month. During the May Day holiday, international oil prices fell sharply, and the PTA market opened slightly lower after the holiday. Subsequently, international oil prices rebounded, and the cost performance remained firm. In addition, two sets of equipment were repaired one after another, and domestic supply decreased, which helped push PTA prices higher.
The international crude oil market saw a significant decline during the May Day holiday, mainly due to OPEC+increasing production beyond expectations, which negatively impacted international oil prices. After May Day, with the increasing oil restrictions imposed by the United States on a certain country, as well as the impact of the Israeli Palestinian conflict and the intention of China and the United States to negotiate, international oil prices have risen. As of May 8th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $59.91 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $62.84 per barrel.
From a personal perspective, there has been an increase in PTA maintenance since May, and the PTA industry’s operating rate has decreased to around 72%, the lowest level of the year.
Downstream polyester production and sales continued to increase before the holiday, leading to a significant improvement in industry inventory. The polyester load remained at 90%, which is the highest level in the same period in the past five years. In addition, there are signs of easing in the trade dispute, with a rebound in commodity sentiment, an improvement in demand sentiment, and a slight issuance of terminal orders.
Business analysts believe that OPEC+’s accelerated production increase and demand outlook are poor, and the pressure on the crude oil market still exists. In addition, some of its PTA maintenance facilities have restarted, resulting in a slight increase in domestic supply. However, there is an opportunity for the geopolitical situation to ease, and the macro trends both domestically and internationally are positive. The downstream polyester load has exceeded expectations, and there is an improvement in terminal orders to support sentiment. Therefore, in the short term, PTA prices are mainly subject to strong fluctuations.
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