Market Overview: This week, due to the combination of supply variables and the difficulty of improving the shortage situation in the short term, multiple factors such as manufacturers’ intention to raise prices and push up prices have worked together to continue the upward trend in the acrylonitrile market. As of the weekend, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup in East China ports is around 11000-11200 yuan/ton, and the negotiation for short distance delivery in Shandong market is around 10900-11100 yuan/ton.
Supply shortage: In the fourth quarter of 2024, major factories in East China gradually reduced their equipment load, and the region remained in a state of shortage. Due to an unexpected shutdown, a unit in Shandong Lihua Yi has maintained 50% operation, and there is a full shutdown maintenance plan in February, which has further exacerbated the already tight supply situation. Coupled with the delay in the production of the new Zhenhai Refining and Chemical plant, the company’s inventory remains low, and currently mainly relies on contract supply, with a continuous shortage of spot resources, and the shortage situation is difficult to improve in the short term.
Increased demand: This week, the downstream ABS production capacity utilization rate of acrylonitrile was 70.50%, slightly lower than last week. However, in 2025, the country announced the continued implementation of the old for new subsidy activity for automotive and household appliances, stimulating the production willingness of ABS market manufacturers. As the Spring Festival approaches, manufacturers have a high enthusiasm for stocking up, and demand has slightly increased.
Market forecast: Currently, the market supply increment is still limited in the short term, with main factories maintaining contract supply as the mainstay, and spot resources remaining scarce. However, with the recent rapid rise in prices, downstream users have also shown resistance. As the Spring Festival approaches, some small and medium-sized downstream factories also have plans to shut down and take a holiday. It is expected that the atmosphere for inquiries will decrease next week, and the market’s potential for further growth may be limited.
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