The next week the narrow greater probability weak acid

since October 2016, the domestic price of acrylic acid from 7000 yuan / ton rose to 12000 yuan / ton, or 71%, is not difficult to find, acrylic products or larger, domestic enterprises have good acrylic products, acrylic acid in 2016 occurred in the market of major accidents (BASF explosion led to its parking capacity 320 thousand tons of acrylic acid Jiangsu Sanmu Logistics Co. Ltd. in unloading propane pipeline leak found, then the fire, resulting in 160 thousand tons of acrylic acid and butyl Jiangsu Sunwood device), double parking accident superimposed power, leading to global acrylic supply, also led to domestic enterprises to open a giant part of price surge model, which also contributed to the domestic part of the company’s fourth quarter 2016 the performance.

It is reported that in January 12th, Zhejiang satellite Petrochemical performance forecast released announcement, expected 2016 net profit of 2.5-3.5 billion yuan, according to this calculation, the company performance in the fourth quarter range of 1.5-2.5 billion yuan, the company’s 4 quarter increase performance improvement, even if the November 2016 Zhejiang satellite Petrochemical Acrylic device does not affect the performance of the company parking half, but increased. That satellite petrochemical production and operation stability, the growth momentum continued into 2017.

In addition, as another Wanhua chemical acrylic leader, since last year, petrochemical plant to resume production after the acrylic prices hit a new high this year, the industry chain profitability continued to improve. The operating rate of domestic acrylic acid industry and inventory is low, when the price of acrylic acid Wanhua chemical raised to 7100 yuan / ton, since 2017, the domestic market continued upward acrylic, is now increasingly stable, does not exclude the interference of upstream factors, by the end of the 12 day acrylic ex factory price of 10900 yuan / ton, this week (from January 5th to 12 because of the role of lead), propylene acrylate prices fell slightly.

The market decline in the expansion of propylene

From January 5th to 12, propylene market decline, the decline in the expansion. Downstream polypropylene prices continued to decline, leading to propylene demand initiative in general. Propylene refinery inventory pressure continues to rise, gradually reduced the price of propylene. But with propylene propylene refinery prices continued to decline, very price will increase; crude oil and major downstream prices have gradually stabilized, the market mentality is good support, propylene prices have gradually stabilized. As of January 12th, Shandong propylene mainstream price 7550-7600 yuan / ton, down 3.5%. the Spring Festival approaching, propylene market is expected to steady trend, the market is difficult to have a significant change before the Spring Festival, is expected to pressure or propylene refinery stocks decline.

Fierce competition

China’s current real effective acid production capacity of about 2 million 200 thousand tons, the actual demand of 1 million 800 thousand tons, the actual effective capacity utilization rate reached 82%. of China’s Acrylic has experienced more than 2 years in the doldrums, many small and medium-sized parking capacity, once the long-term parking, enterprises will withdraw from the market of acrylic acid, to further improve the industry concentration, in the downstream consumption growth keep the 6-7% case, we expect the industry in 2017 will further improve the structure of supply and demand. Only Shanghai Huayi acrylic acid plant will be put into operation in half a month after the beginning of January, according to market sources, Shanghai Huayi acrylic acid and butyl device to enter the commissioning phase, but the recent rumors, Huayi encountered problems in the feeding process, most market participants believe that Huayi year after the restart of the greater probability of material. The author thinks that the HC chemical network, Shanghai Huayi acrylic acid and butyl device is put into operation after the 2017 China’s capacity will be improved and butyl acrylate.

SAP super absorbent resin acrylic acid as a high-end downstream products, used in baby diapers, personal hygiene, food packaging materials, water retaining agent, water blocking cable and other fields, is the main application field of personal hygiene, accounting for more than 92%., with the second child policy brought about by the aging of the baby boomers and adult diapers the demand for high-end downstream products demand will increase year by year, driving the market to become the domestic and foreign enterprises upstream acrylic “xiangbobo”, the future of these companies has a huge incremental space, is expected to give each big company future performance and provide great flexibility.

In summary, the Spring Festival holiday, due to upstream propylene market access to the disadvantaged situation, the domestic acrylic market seems to be flat, is expected next week to narrow the greater probability weak acid.