In 2016 the traditional demand continues to shrink the domestic methanol or high fluctuated

production capacity in 2017, plans to add 5 million 100 thousand tons of methanol production capacity, the growth rate was 6.92%, in 2017 the domestic methanol production capacity is expected to be 78 million 780 thousand tons, 3 million tons of methanol production capacity but which are supporting the downstream device, the actual net amount invested only 2 million 100 thousand tons, so that the overall domestic methanol in 2017 to maintain a low growth rate about supply.

The cost of domestic coal, affected the supply side reforms continued to rise, Shaanxi 5500 kcal coal pit from 165 rose to the highest 485 yuan / ton, methanol cost corresponding to 1213 rose to 2013 yuan / ton, the cost rose as high as 66%, so the current northwest region of coal methanol profits are still in the range of 0-500 shock although, methanol prices rose, but the production profit has not improved significantly, and the high cost of methanol gas head profit is lower, so in 2017 the cost of coal supply side reforms in 2017 will continue, but the government does not want to see higher prices, it is expected that in 2017 Kengkou coal still maintain the current rate of about the level of expected cost basically 2017 coal methanol shocks in the vicinity of 2000, count 400 of the freight, the price of methanol in East China the cost of support in the vicinity of 2400.

The stock of domestic supply, 2016 due to upstream profits and no significant improvement in the overall equipment operation rate is still in the range of 50%-70% shock, if removed long-term parking (of which 4 million tons of methanol gas, head) device to enhance the rate of 5.5%, the overall capacity utilization rate is higher than in previous years the level, which is mainly affected by the olefin demand release in recent years, but 2017 did not increase demand and profit of methanol production of olefins, also no obvious improvement, it is expected that the stock is expected to increase supply, supply growth in 2017 mainly from the whole new capacity.

The import side, because of the domestic supply and demand pattern changes, the growth rate of imports of methanol in 2016 rose 62%, the highest monthly volume of imports reached 926 thousand tons, far higher than the level of previous years, although the overall methanol dependency of less than 20%, but for the East China market of methanol supply, most of the imports, so in 2017 will focus on concerned about the import effect on methanol disk. The 2017 outer new capacity is not much new capacity plan is 3 million 790 thousand tons, and concentrated in the second half of the year, investment is the main origin of the United States and Iran, the highest peak in 2018, concentrated in the United States, so that overall imports in 2017 will remain high, but there will be a substantial increase in may.

The demand side, continued to shrink in 2016 the traditional demand, especially the two ether atrophy is very powerful, the proportion dropped to 31%, the olefin demand accounted for a substantial increase to 45%, in addition to methanol fuel (including methanol gasoline) accounted for 16% of 2017, olefin demand continues to rise, only 400 thousand tons of Changzhou, Jiangsu Sheng Fu Tak rainbow 1 million 200 thousand tons at the end of 2016, although the 2017 launch, and the Saline Lake in Qinghai, Gansu Huating coal and GF total 1 million 400 thousand tons of MTO release, but are supporting the corresponding device with the addition of methanol, methanol fuel oil prices rebound, the demand rate probably rose steadily, thus, the overall demand growth in 2017, olefin demand is not net growth the other hand, the slow growth, so the overall demand will be weakened, also need to pay more attention to the profits of olefin plant of methanol production, the linkage of the two 2017 will be significantly stronger than in previous years.