1、 Price trend
According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, pure benzene rebounded slightly after falling this week. On November 25, the price of pure benzene was 6700-6950 yuan/ton (the average price was 6784 yuan/ton), and on Friday (December 2), the price of pure benzene was 6450-6600 yuan/ton (the average price was 6559 yuan/ton), down 3.32% from last week and up 3.95% from the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and review
The fundamentals of pure benzene are poor, and the supply side continues to increase due to the accumulation of stocks in ports in East China; Downstream market is generally weak, and just need to buy. The trend of superimposed crude oil is weak, and the cost support is poor. The price of pure benzene fell due to multiple negative pressures. After the fall of pure benzene, the downstream buying recovered, and prices rebounded slightly in the coming weekend. At the beginning of the week, there were about 141000 tons of pure benzene in East China Port, an increase of about 22000 tons compared with last week.
This week, the price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was reduced by 300 yuan/ton to 6500 yuan/ton (down to 6450 yuan/ton in Shandong and Hebei).
In terms of external market, the price of pure benzene in Asia fell this week. On Thursday (December 1), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was 758 US dollars/ton, down 23 US dollars/ton year-on-year, or 2.94%; The reference import price in East China was 789 US dollars/ton, down 23 US dollars/ton year on year, or 2.83%.
In terms of crude oil, concerns about the risk of global economic recession remain, and oil demand is under pressure. However, the OPEC+production reduction rumors and the news that the US crude oil inventory fell more than expected brought good news, and the oil price rebounded after falling in the week. As of December 2, Brent price this week rose by 1.94 dollars/barrel, or 2.32%, compared with last week; WTI rose by 3.7 dollars/barrel, or 4.85%.
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Downstream
3、 Future market forecast
In terms of crude oil, major oil producing countries decided to maintain the established production reduction target, and the oil price was somewhat suppressed. Under the background of the risk of global economic recession, energy demand is depressed; However, the supply side is still tight, and the short-term market will maintain a volatile pattern. We will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest OPEC+production policy, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.
The trend of crude oil is volatile, the supply side of pure benzene is sufficient, and the overall downstream demand is poor. It is expected that the short-term weakness of pure benzene will be consolidated. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external price trend, pure benzene port inventory dynamics and pure benzene and downstream device dynamics on prices.
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