Recent trend of urea price
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It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic urea market price rose slightly this week. The urea price rose from 2400.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 2525.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 5.21%, and a year-on-year increase of 1.00%. On September 12, the urea commodity index was 117.44, which was the same as yesterday, down 22.90% from 152.33 points (May 15, 2022), the highest point in the cycle, and up 111.22% from 55.60 points, the lowest point on August 17, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
Increased cost support, better downstream demand and increased urea supply
From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of domestic urea rose slightly this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 2680 yuan/ton this weekend, up 80 yuan/ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2490 yuan / ton this weekend, up 130 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng urea quoted 2495 yuan/ton this weekend, up 135 yuan/ton compared with last weekend;
From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream market of urea has increased slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas has decreased slightly, from 5994.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5930.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 1.07%, a year-on-year increase of 2.42%; The price of anthracite rose slightly. By the end of September 13, the price of anthracite had risen by 180-250 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of September. Upstream raw materials had risen significantly, providing sufficient support for urea prices. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea rose slightly, from 7933.33 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 8266.67 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 4.20%.
In terms of demand, agricultural demand is small and industrial demand is gradually expanding. Rubber sheet factory enterprises start at a low level, and just need to purchase; The shipment of compound fertilizer plant is good, and it has been started to improve. The price of melamine rose slightly, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was good. From the perspective of supply: environmental protection and production restriction in Shanxi Province, plant maintenance in northwest China, and urea production reduction are expected. Internationally: on September 9, the printed label landed, and a total of 2.251 million tons were received. The lowest price of the west coast is 668.15 US dollars / ton CFR, and the lowest price of the east coast is 675.25 US dollars / ton CFR.
Urea price or small increase
In mid September, the domestic urea market may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business club believe that the prices of anthracite and liquefied natural gas in the upstream of urea have increased slightly, and the cost of urea has increased. The downstream agricultural demand is general, while the industrial demand increases. The daily output of urea is expected to decline, which is stimulated by the stamp. The recent urea or narrow range shock rise is the main one.
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