This week (3.15-19) liquid ammonia market rose sharply, according to the business community monitoring, liquid ammonia weekly decline of 4.59%. As of March 19, the monthly growth rate was 6.15%. The mainstream price in Shandong is 3400-3500 yuan / ton.
This week, the domestic price of liquid ammonia rose sharply, mainly due to the tight supply. On the one hand, the two sessions ended, the environmental protection warning was lifted, the export volume of ammonia in northern China increased, the manufacturers discharged the warehouse, and the inventory pressure was significantly reduced. Moreover, Henan, Hubei, Chongqing and Northeast China have all been overhauled, and the supply of liquid ammonia is more tight due to the reduction of liquid ammonia output. According to the statistics of business news agency, big factories in Shandong have increased their quotations four times in five trading days a week, with an increase of 250 yuan / ton. In addition, the demand side is better than the earlier stage. In the peak season of spring ploughing, the amount of replenishment in the downstream is increased, the performance of urea in the downstream is better, and the output of liquid ammonia is limited, which aggravates the shortage of ammonia.
After the year, the market gradually warmed up, the long-distance transportation recovered rapidly, and the liquid ammonia market ushered in the delivery period. As the inventory of liquid ammonia of most manufacturers has declined, it has also cleared the way for the price rise. After the festival, the demand for urea, phosphate fertilizer and other downstream products has picked up, and the purchase has increased. The price of liquid ammonia in Shandong and Hebei has also picked up significantly.
In terms of urea, urea rose by 2.25% this week. At the same time of tight supply, India’s urea bidding announcement led to the rise of urea price, and foreign trade led to domestic trade procurement. The market is optimistic about the Indian bid price and domestic market expectation as a whole. It is estimated that at present, the upstream factories have exhausted the pressure in the early stage, and there is no pressure to receive orders for the time being. There are export-oriented factories that limit the order receiving, and control the pressure of port gathering and shipment within a certain range. Domestic prices are expected to remain high in the short term.
As far as the downstream compound fertilizer is concerned, it is generally consolidated at a high point. According to the monitoring of the business society, monoammonium phosphate rose by 3.09% in March, but this week’s rise and fall were all zero. The market has obviously entered a stagflation period, and spring ploughing and fertilizer preparation has come to an end. The agricultural demand continues to weaken. It is expected that with the price of liquid ammonia continues to rise, the downstream profit will be squeezed, which will also affect the downstream demand, and the price of compound fertilizer may increase in the later stage It’s up.
In the future, the business community believes that the current shortage of liquid ammonia is difficult to solve in a short time, and the maintenance of some manufacturers’ devices may last for nearly a month, and the market supply will continue to be good in the short term. It does not rule out the possibility that the price of liquid ammonia will continue to rise next week, but with the contraction of downstream procurement, the price rise of liquid ammonia will also be limited.
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