1、 Price trend
According to the data in the bulk list of business associations, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on February 10 was 11033 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on February 17 was 10633 yuan / ton, with the weekly price down 3.64%. So far, the caprolactam commodity index on February 17 is 53.48, down 0.17 points from yesterday, a new low in the cycle, 46.52% lower than the highest point of 100.00 on March 2, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2017-03-01 till now)
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2、 Market analysis
Product: up to now, the price of caprolactam liquid in Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 10000 yuan / ton, cash is delivered, the manufacturer’s capacity is 300000 tons, and the actual transaction can be discussed. The price of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid is 11600 yuan / ton, and the unit capacity is 400000 tons / year. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 11400 yuan / ton, and the capacity of the unit is 450000 tons / year, which will be delivered upon acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical Company is 11400 yuan / ton, and the capacity of the unit is 300000 tons / year, which will be delivered upon acceptance. Fujian Tianchen Yaolong caprolactam liquid price 11500 yuan / ton, contract order, unit capacity 280000 tons / year.
Industrial chain: pure benzene port inventory accumulation this week. The process of downstream resumption is slow. In addition, styrene plant reduces production and raw materials are released. At present, pure benzene is in the situation of weak supply and demand, and is still constrained by transportation. PA6 chip enterprises have a large inventory, and are now operating at a low level.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the sixth week of 2020 (2.10-2.14), there are 16 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical sector. The top three commodities rising are dichloromethane (5.00%), polyaluminium chloride (3.54%) and propane (3.38%). There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are butadiene (- 13.52%), propylene oxide (- 5.11%) and liquid ammonia (- 4.89%). This week’s average was – 0.26%.
3、 Future forecast
Caprolactam analysts of the business community believe that the current demand for caprolactam is low, and the downstream has a strong wait-and-see attitude. Affected by the epidemic, some enterprises have not yet returned to work, and logistics and transportation are blocked. The price of caprolactam was lowered under many factors. It is expected that the caprolactam market will remain weak in the later period, and the price will drop slightly.