I. price trend
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, since last Friday (10.11), the domestic methanol market has been surging and falling back. As of October 15, the average price of the domestic methanol market is 2352 yuan / ton. The price is 12.11% higher than that of the same period last month, and 28.92% lower than that of the same period last year.
II. Market analysis
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Products: the methanol inventory in Northwest China is not high, and the price is firm; the methanol market in Bohai Rim region is generally traded, and the market is mainly on the sidelines; the methanol delivery in Huaihai region is not good, and the methanol market price in some regions has a significant decline; the methanol market in Central China is slightly traded, and the mentality of traders is weak; the downward trend of futures has significantly depressed the spot price of the port. The demand for downstream olefins is stable. Although the inventory of methanol manufacturers in Northwest China is not high and the price remains firm and consolidated, at the current high price level, the downstream users in consumption areas such as Shandong mainly consume raw material inventory, and the willingness to receive goods is not high. Under the pressure of weak overall transaction, the prices of some manufacturers around Bohai Sea and Huaihai sea are reversed. On the port side, the futures went down, the port spot fluctuated with the market, and the operator’s mentality was negative, and the transaction was not good.
Industry chain: formaldehyde: the domestic formaldehyde market is on the lookout for consolidation. The weak market of raw methanol is dominated by consolidation, and the cost support continues to weaken. There is no obvious negative effect on the formaldehyde Market for the time being. The offer of formaldehyde industry is temporarily stable. At present, the transaction atmosphere in most regions is mainly light, and it is difficult to boost the delivery. In the short term, the domestic formaldehyde market may be stable, medium and small weak.
Influence of formaldehyde on methanol: according to the trend comparison chart of methanol and formaldehyde in the business association, the price change trend of methanol and formaldehyde is basically the same from September 15 to October 6, and the price change range of formaldehyde is the same as that of methanol in the whole community. As an important downstream of methanol, the price of formaldehyde has shown a downward trend since Oct. 7. The downward trend of methanol is slightly behind that of formaldehyde, but the overall trend remains the same. It is expected that the price of methanol will also decline.
Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market continues to be weak. Under the sentiment of buying up and not buying down, downstream users mostly just need to receive goods, and spot market transactions are weak. In this context, some enterprises mainly engaged in spot sales still have the expectation of increasing inventory, the contradiction between supply and demand continues to be sharp, the low-level competition of suppliers is fierce, and the atmosphere of short market is strong. Tianjin Bohua Yongli reduced the negative, while Jiangsu Thorpe stopped unexpectedly for a short time, which had no significant impact on the market. It is expected that the domestic acetic acid market will continue to be weak in the short term.
Influence of acetic acid on methanol: according to the trend comparison chart of methanol and acetic acid in the business association, the price change trend and range of the two are basically the same. The acetic acid market is light, and the methanol market will also be affected by the negative under the condition of low downstream demand.
Dimethyl ether: the market price of dimethyl ether is generally stable, the high price manufacturers call back, the market demand is not large, and the market trading atmosphere is relatively light. The average price of DME in North China is 3580 yuan / ton, which is 17 yuan / ton lower than that in the previous working day. The overall price of the regions along the Yangtze River and southwest China has increased by about 30 yuan / ton, while that of Hebei has declined, while that of other regions is mainly stable.
Influence of dimethyl ether on methanol: according to the trend comparison chart of methanol and dimethyl ether, the price change trend and range of them are basically the same. The domestic market price of DME is stable as a whole, and the price of some high-priced manufacturers in Hebei Province has dropped. The industry has a strong wait-and-see attitude, but there are many manufacturers who have been operating steadily and secretly, and some of them have made profits. In the near future, some of the parking manufacturers have not yet started, and their production capacity will gradually increase. In addition, the methanol cost support is insufficient, the methanol market will decline, and the market demand for dimethyl ether is not high. It is expected that the domestic market price of DME may fall in the short term.
III. future forecast
From the perspective of the business community: in the later stage, the downstream delivery is poor, and the demand side support is weak, but at the same time, the low inventory support price in the upstream main production area is strong, with some support. The methanol analysts of the business community expect that the domestic methanol market will be stagnant in the short term, and some areas will have a downward pressure. In the later stage, we still need to pay attention to downstream mentality, safety supervision, operation of olefin unit, port inventory, freight level and futures trend.