Price Trend
According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic acetic acid market rose sharply in August, with a 20.9% increase in the month. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 3350-3400/ton; in Shandong, 3500-3600 yuan/ton; in Hebei, 3550 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi, 3150 yuan/ton; and in Jiangsu, 3500-3600 yuan/ton. / Tons or so; Zhejiang region offers 3650-3750 yuan/ton; South China region delivers about 3650-3700 yuan/ton.
| PVA 0599 (PVA BF05) |
II. Cause Analysis
Products: In August, the domestic acetic acid market was affected by the supply shortage caused by enterprise maintenance, and continued to rise in the month as a whole, reaching the highest value in the year. In the month as a whole, construction started at about 60%, and the total output of the enterprise was less than 600,000 tons. At the beginning of the month, the domestic acetic acid market continued to be weak in July, with poor downstream demand, poor enterprise shipment and delivery at reduced prices. In the middle of the month, concentrated maintenance of acetic acid production enterprises led to continuous tight market supply. Among them, 10 days of plant overhaul of 500,000 tons per year in Jiantao, 10 days of plant overhaul of 500,000 tons per year in Hualuheng, 4 days of plant overhaul of 500,000 tons per year in Bohua, Tianjin and 35,000 tons per year in Bohua. 10,000 tons/year plant load reduction parking for more than one month, Shaanxi extended 300,000 tons/year plant parking for about 12 days, Henan Longyu 500,000 tons/year plant restart delayed until early September, a 1 million tons/year plant in Nanjing fell to 30%, the industry spot demand is difficult, the overall inventory is low, acetic acid prices continue to rise; near the end of the month, overhaul enterprises have successively increased. Restoration, the industry supply is expected to improve, the market gradually stabilized, but the downstream industry has not improved, poor purchasing, Thorpe 1.2 million tons per year device shutdown led to increased wait-and-see mood in the industry.
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Industry chain: In the upstream, the domestic methanol market is rising first and then restraining, with high inventories, poor downstream demand and short-term oscillating operation, currently around 2050 yuan/ton; domestic acetate and vinyl acetate industries are affected by high cost support, and continue to rise in the near future, but downstream terminal demand is general and strong resistance to its high price. Strong, at present mostly hold a wait-and-see attitude; PTA market in China started to work at a high level within a month, which is good for acetic acid price support. At present, the overhaul plan of large factories has been introduced, and the demand for acetic acid has slowed down.
International: In August, the supply and demand of acetic acid Market in North America are relatively balanced, and the price of acetic acid has been running steadily within a month, currently about 360 US dollars per ton; Affected by the tight supply of acetic acid in China, the price of acetic acid in Asia has continued to rise, currently 460-505 US dollars per ton; the overall performance of the European acetic acid market is stable, and the market turnover is flat, with the current quotation of 650 Euros./ About a ton.
3. Future Market Forecast
According to the analyst of acetic acid of business association, the maintenance enterprises of acetic acid market have been completed one after another. Henan Longyu, Anhui Huayi and Jiangsu Soap are about to restart. September is in the traditional peak season. Most downstream and traders have the intention to stock up. However, due to the influence of National Day, the downstream construction situation is unknown, and the logistics transportation is limited. More vegetable. It is expected that the domestic acetic acid market will run steadily, moderately and weakly in a short period of time. It is also necessary to pay attention to the start-up of enterprises.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |