According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of March 14, 2024, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was 16220 yuan/ton, which was basically unchanged compared to March 10. Compared with February 29 (organic silicon DMC reference was 15360 yuan/ton), the price increased by 860 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.60%.

From the testing chart of organic silicon DMC product data from Business Society, it can be seen that starting from late February, the domestic organic silicon DMC market has experienced a broad upward trend, with the organic silicon DMC rising all the way into early March. As of March 10th, the overall increase in domestic organic silicon DMC after the Spring Festival exceeded 8%, and the high-end price of organic silicon DMC has also broken through the 17000 yuan/ton mark.

Entering this week, at the beginning of the week, the domestic organic silicon DMC market is generally in a trend of consolidation after rising, with a relatively calm overall performance and little price fluctuation, with stable operation as the main focus. During the week, Shandong’s large organic silicon DMC remained stable at 16100 yuan/ton. It was rumored that there was a second weak opening, with a transaction of 15800 yuan/ton orders, but a new opening returned to 16100 yuan/ton. The price of organic silicon DMC from leading companies has also remained stable, remaining strong around 17000 yuan/ton. Other factories are also stabilizing the previous market trend. During the weekend, the opening price of Shandong’s large organic silicon DMC was once again lowered to 15800 yuan/ton, driving the overall focus of the organic silicon DMC market to move downwards and widening the gap between high and low prices on the market. At present, there is a slight wait-and-see sentiment in the organic silicon DMC market. As of March 14th, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference is around 15800-17000 yuan/ton.

At present, the downstream demand for organic silicon DMC is generally shifting towards calmness, and the buying atmosphere in the early stage is gradually calming down. The downstream market is mainly focused on rigid demand procurement while digesting raw materials. The overall pressure on the supply side of organic silicon DMC is still relatively low, and the market is supported by pre orders. However, the price adjustments of major manufacturers have injected anxiety into the market, and the overall wait-and-see atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market is becoming stronger.

Prediction of the future trend of organic silicon DMC market

At present, the trading atmosphere of organic silicon DMC on the market is mild, and the mentality of chasing gains on the market is slowing down. The overall operating rate of organic silicon DMC is still high, and some operators still have expectations for the traditional peak season of the market. According to the organic silicon DMC data analyst from Business Society, in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market will mainly adjust and operate within a narrow range, and specific attention should be paid to factors such as market operating conditions and changes in production capacity.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic POM market has been stable and rising, with most spot prices rising. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 13th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 13675 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+1.30% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has slightly increased, and it can be seen from the above chart that the formaldehyde market is mainly characterized by slight fluctuations. The price of raw material methanol is relatively stable, and the cost support is still acceptable. Downstream demand is gradually recovering, and formaldehyde manufacturers are shipping normally. The market has slightly rebounded, and the support for POM is still acceptable.

In terms of supply:

Recently, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has been generally high, with an overall load rate of around 89%. However, most companies have low inventory positions and have not experienced any accumulation of inventory. There is an expected increase in POM production in the future, but overall, the impact on supply pressure is limited, and the support for POM spot on the supply side is relatively strong.

In terms of demand:

Recently, the stocking situation of downstream POM enterprises in China has been average, and most of them just need to pick up the goods. In addition, due to the high price of POM, buyers have a certain degree of resistance. Overall, the demand side entry is lagging behind, and the support for POM spot prices is limited.

Future Market Forecast

In the first half of March, the POM market remained stable with some gains. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has slightly increased at a high level, and the inventory position of enterprises is relatively low. The supply side pressure has not yet appeared, and the pricing operation of manufacturers tends to be biased towards high prices. Downstream enterprises are limited in purchasing due to high load and POM prices, resulting in delayed stock preparation follow-up. It is expected that the POM market will enter a narrow consolidation market in the future.

The price of ortho xylene temporarily stabilized in March

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of March 12th, the price of ortho xylene was 8100 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of ortho xylene on March 1st, which was 8100 yuan/ton. In March, crude oil prices stabilized strongly, naphtha prices rose, mixed xylene fluctuated and fell, and the cost of ortho xylene decreased; The price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen, resulting in weak demand for ortho xylene and a decrease in costs. The price of ortho xylene has remained weak and stable this week.

The price of mixed xylene raw materials fluctuates and falls

According to the mixed xylene commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of March 12th, the quoted price of mixed xylene was 7380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54% from the price of mixed xylene on March 1st, which was 7420 yuan/ton. In March, crude oil prices stabilized strongly, while naphtha prices fluctuated and rose. The cost of mixed xylene supported the increase in port mixed xylene inventories, resulting in poor demand growth for mixed xylene. The price of mixed xylene fluctuated and fell, while the cost of adjacent benzene supported the decrease.

Downstream prices of phthalic anhydride fluctuate and fall

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products by Business Society, as of March 12th, the quoted price for phthalic anhydride was 7587.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.30% from the price of 7625 yuan/ton on March 1st. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a recent operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is poor. In addition, the supply of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has slightly declined, which has affected the price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride.

Future prospects

According to analysts from Business Society, in terms of raw materials, the price of mixed xylene has fallen, the cost of ortho xylene has decreased, downstream phthalic anhydride manufacturers have poor sales, the phthalic anhydride market has declined, and the demand for ortho xylene is poor. Overall, as costs decrease and demand weakens, the pressure on ortho benzene prices to decline is increasing. It is expected that ortho benzene prices will fluctuate slightly in the future.

Product name: Hydrochloric acid

Latest price (March 11th): 100 yuan/ton

On March 11th, the domestic market price of hydrochloric acid increased significantly, with a price increase of 5 yuan/ton compared to March 10th, an increase of 5.26%, and a year-on-year decrease of 43.18%. The upstream liquid chlorine market has recently seen a significant increase, with increased cost support. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market is fluctuating and rising, and downstream purchasing willingness is good. Duo Zhong Li is good, but the price of hydrochloric acid has surged.

The domestic hydrochloric acid market prices may fluctuate and rise in the future, with an average market price of around 110 yuan/ton.

The domestic fluorite price trend has remained stable this week, with an average price of 3350 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, which is the same as the price of 3350 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and an increase of 13.56% year-on-year.

Supply side: Enterprises gradually resume work, fluorite market temporarily stable

The game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises has slightly increased. On the one hand, upstream mining is tight, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. On the other hand, in terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and some mines are conducting safety hazard inspections. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has restricted their operation. On the other hand, enterprises are gradually resuming work during the Spring Festival holiday, and the supply of fluorite has increased. The price trend of fluorite is temporarily stable.

On the demand side: stable market for hydrofluoric acid, rising refrigerant prices

The domestic price trend of hydrofluoric acid has remained stable this week, with mainstream prices of 9800-10200 yuan/ton negotiated in various regions. The hydrofluoric acid market has remained stable this week, with some units still in shutdown. There has been little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid, and manufacturers have fewer orders for hydrofluoric acid. The low price of hydrofluoric acid is bearish for the domestic fluorite market, and some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers purchase on demand. The domestic fluorite market is temporarily stable.

The market for some downstream refrigerant products has risen, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has not changed much. Refrigerant R22 manufacturers have raised their factory prices due to quota issues, and distributors have been more active in purchasing. The price trend of R22 has increased, with the mainstream of negotiations ranging from 25000 to 27000 yuan/ton. The quota cycle in the refrigerant market has begun, and it is difficult for enterprises to change their reluctance to sell. The quota for R134a in China is relatively tight, and some manufacturers have raised their factory prices. Currently, the market quotation for R134a refrigerant is mostly in the range of 31000-33000 yuan/ton. The overall transaction in the refrigerant industry is still good, but the production in the refrigerant industry remains sluggish, and the price trend of fluorite is temporarily stable.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material in modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as national defense and nuclear industry, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the driving force of demand in new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market has remained stable.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. In addition, the trend of refrigerant product prices has increased, and demand has improved. However, as fluorite enterprises continue to resume work and production, the supply has increased. In addition, the hydrofluoric acid market has not improved, and Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society, believes that there is still resistance to the price increase of fluorite in the future.