Macro: in December 2016, the business community of commodity supply and demand index (BCI) were 0.49, rose to 5.39%, reflecting the monthly manufacturing economy last month was the expansion of the state economy, rising trend evident.

Market forecast

Due to the low for good support, the current high prices to have a negative impact on refinery shipments to. As prices continue to rise, downstream businesses will inevitably breed resentment. Civil gas and other related market rally has good convergence, low for propane was also gradually consumed in the short term, if no new positive, expected upward pressure on domestic propane market will gradually increase, the latter will gradually stabilize. Continue to focus on specific market dynamics.

This week weekend propane price is 4357 yuan / ton, the market down, down 3.41%.

Analysis of influencing factors

Products: due to the low price for good support, at present no negative impact on refinery shipments. But as prices continue to rise, downstream businesses will inevitably breed resentment. Civil gas and other related market rally has good convergence, low for propane was also gradually consumed.

The industrial chain: from the demand point of view, relying on the advantage of the pressure of the propane as everyone knows in winter is so popular, on the one hand, propane resources in northeast region of strong absorptive capacity, without considering the impact factors of inlet, domestic propane free sales; on the other hand, especially along the South market and Southern China area in the region less, many manufacturers follow the civil actively adjust, local high prices, more beneficial to the positive trend of the propane market.

Industry: imported, Saudi Aramco announced in January CP, the crude oil market optimistic expectations and winter in the northern hemisphere needs good support shamei CP ushered in the boom. Propane is 435 dollars / ton, compared with last month rose 55 U.S. dollars / ton; butane 495 dollars / ton, compared with last month rose 75 U.S. dollars / ton. About the goods or propane landed cost of 3570 yuan / ton, 4050 yuan / ton butane.

Industrial chain: crude oil, the international energy agency believes that global excess supply situation is eased, and crude oil futures rebounded, the dollar fell also supported oil market atmosphere. But the U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased, the international price of oil is limited. As of Friday (January 20th) the New York Mercantile Exchange in February WTI crude oil contract closing price of 52.42 U.S. dollars / barrel, up 1.05 U.S. dollars / barrel; London Intercontinental Exchange, March Brent crude contract closing price of 55.49 U.S. dollars / barrel, up $1.33 / barrel; propylene market scope, market transport restrictions such as holidays, the factory will offer steady, discuss turnover decreased significantly, buying part of on-demand procurement; near the end of the year, the downstream market of butyl stocking positive market sentiment improved.

Market forecast:

The current domestic n-butanol factory equipment operating rate is normal, the market atmosphere of peace, before and after the Spring Festival holiday mainstream manufacturers orders sales have been ahead of schedule, inventory slightly nervous, even a tight supply situation; the east port of supply side stability. Next week is the Spring Festival approaching, n-butanol market will continue the consolidation operation, price fluctuation co..

This week domestic n-butanol market consolidation operation, mainstream manufacturers offer a slight increase; as of Friday (January 20th), the domestic butanol ex factory price of 6120 yuan / ton, rose 1.07% this week to three months for a cycle or 5.34%.

Market analysis:

Macro: in December 2016, the business community of commodity supply and demand index (BCI) were 0.49, rose to 5.39%, reflecting the monthly manufacturing economy last month was the expansion of the state economy, rising trend evident.

Product: this week butanol narrow market consolidation, the overall offer slightly raised 100 yuan / ton. To discuss the Shandong mainstream market week 6100-6200 yuan / ton; Jiangsu and n-butanol mainstream market offer 6300-6400 yuan / ton.

Bring a strong margin of safety synthetic rubber prices for natural rubber.

Affected by rising crude oil prices led to oil products and the change of production process, the main raw material of synthetic rubber butadiene synthetic rubber prices rose sharply driven by the rapid rise in prices. Synthetic rubber and natural rubber has a certain role in the field of downstream tire replacement. Due to the relatively low cost of synthetic rubber, the history of synthetic rubber prices basically under the price of natural rubber. This round of rapid synthetic rubber rose sharply appeared upside down will greatly enhance the natural rubber prices uncertainty, improve the natural rubber safety margin upward.

The association of natural rubber producing countries (ANRPC) said on Friday, due to the flood affected Thailand tapping activities in the first quarter of 2017, the global natural rubber production is likely to decline, the first quarter of the natural rubber production is expected to 0.8% yoy to 2 million 440 thousand tons. The association said in a statement, the 2017 members of the ANRPC annual output is expected to rise by 4% to 11 million 200 thousand tons, the previous three years yields were low. Members of the association of rubber production accounted for 92% of the world’s total output.

Thailand flood for the specific yield to wait until after the show stop cutting, for short-term supply to wait until after the Spring Festival in order to prove or disprove. The flood is more from the promotion of market supply and demand tightening expected point boost natural rubber prices. Rita futures, HuJiao 1705 contract on short-term pressure of 22000 yuan / ton, in the 19600 yuan / ton -22000 yuan / ton range trading.