On September 6, the price of metal cobalt in the domestic non-ferrous metal spot market rose, and the average price of cobalt was 48,7500.00 yuan / ton, up 0.13% from the previous trading day.

On September 6, the price of metal cobalt in major domestic manufacturers was temporarily stabilized. The average price of cobalt ex-factory was 52,5000.00 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the previous trading day.

On September 5th, the cobalt commodity index was 175.13, which was the same as yesterday. It was 26.70% lower than the highest point of 238.91 points (2018-04-15) in the cycle, which was 150.76% higher than the lowest point of 69.84 on July 5, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

On September 6, the domestic price of cobalt rose, and the price of cobalt powder in Shanghai fell, and the actual transaction price remained stable. On September 6, the domestic cobalt price of Wuxi Stainless Steel Electronic Trading Center was 466,000-496,000 yuan/ton, and the price of cobalt was stable. On September 6, the stock was 566.75 tons, and the inventory was reduced by 4.5 tons. The supply of cobalt is at a high level, and downstream enterprises are purchasing on demand, but the market is still dominated by wait and see. The growth rate of new energy vehicles has declined, but the performance is still better than market expectations. The performance of new energy vehicles is positive for the stability of cobalt prices, but it is difficult to change the downward trend of cobalt prices. However, due to the absolute high cobalt price in the previous period, the import cost of cobalt ore is relatively high, and the space for cobalt price decline is limited.

In terms of market outlook, there is no major change in the supply and demand of cobalt. The overall supply of cobalt is oversupplied, the price of cobalt is difficult to maintain, and the domestic cobalt price is still at risk of decline. It is expected that the price of cobalt in the market will fluctuate and stabilize.

First, the price data

According to the data of the business community’s big list (top.100ppi.com), the average price of petroleum coke products of major domestic refining manufacturers in August was 1720.12 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 1937.44 yuan/ton at the end of the month, rising by 217.32 yuan/ton during the month. The monthly increase was 12.63%. In July, the refining petroleum coke market as a whole showed an upward trend.

Second, the analysis of influencing factors

The main reasons for analyzing the trend of domestic petroleum coke prices in August are as follows:

First, upstream raw materials: According to business monitoring, Brent crude oil at the beginning of the month of 77.32 US dollars / barrel, the end of the month 77.27 US dollars / barrel, the monthly increase of -0.06%; WTI crude oil at the beginning of the month 68.76 US dollars / barrel, the end of the month 70.25 US dollars / barrel, within the month The increase was 2.17%. The United States continues to impose sanctions on Iran, Iran’s crude oil exports have fallen sharply, oil market supply has increased, and Russian crude oil production has continued to increase.

Second, the downstream demand: In August, the downstream electrolytic aluminum began to dump goods in winter, making the price of prebaked anodes rise, the price of calcined coke continued to rise, and environmental protection pressure continued to increase.

Third, the market supply: August, Shandong refining and refining petroleum coke trading is good, the price of coke rose 200-300 yuan / ton, August is still the season of refining and repairing, the supply of refining petroleum coke is relatively tight, and the oil is refining In the coke market, the refining market was shipped in late August, but due to the heavy rain in Shandong, some manufacturers were unable to ship.

Third, the market outlook

The petroleum coke analyst of the business community expects that the increase in the price of refinery petroleum coke in August is mainly due to the overhaul of the coking unit and the heavy rain in Shandong, which may result in the inability of some refineries to ship, and the supply of refinery petroleum coke is tight, which is better for refining petroleum coke. . With the gradual overhaul of the coking unit in late August, the supply of petroleum coke will increase. It is expected that the price of refining petroleum coke will be stable in September, and some manufacturers will fluctuate slightly, and the price may be 1800-2000 yuan/ton.

1. Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business community, this week’s TDI price closed at 30,440 yuan / ton, a decrease of 260 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.85% compared with the beginning of the week, the price fell slightly.

2. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: The domestic TDI market fell slightly this month. Shandong Dongda Yinuowei Polyurethane Co., Ltd. reported domestic production of 30,500 yuan / ton; Shanghai Xingrong Chemical Co., Ltd. reported dow30500 yuan / ton; Nanjing Carbon Green Chemicals Co., Ltd. reported that Zhangzhou Dahua 30,500 yuan / ton; Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone Pan Asia International Trade Co., Ltd. reported BASF 30200 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: The market continued to fall slightly this week. The traditional peak season of TDI is coming, and the industry has different views. Some holders said that this year is not necessarily the same, the downstream environmental inspection is strict, each year is different. According to the previous trend, many people will stock up before the peak season, which directly leads to the peak season, and the supply and demand shutdown is such a dynamic change. It can only be said that the first two years are the peak period of TDI. At the same time, many goods dealers also said that there is no stockpile plan, TDI does not dare to pick up the goods, the current profit margin of the manufacturers is still very large, so the space for the fall will be great. At the same time, Yantai Juli and Wanhua Chemical will each have their own production capacity of 150,000 tons/year and 300,000 tons/year. The production capacity will increase and the supply gap will be improved.

Industry: Two consecutive TDI prices such a roller coaster-like market shows that there is indeed a problem in the TDI market. At present, TDI is a high-margin product in the polyurethane industry, and it has been a high price in the recent collapse to 24,500. Long-term high product prices are not conducive to sustainable development. Domestic and foreign manufacturers are researching ways to reduce or replace the use of TDI. If the price does not return to a healthy level at an early date, the follow-up situation is worrying.

III. Conclusions and prospects

According to analysis by business community data analysts: TDI continued to decline slightly in the short term, and the peak season is expected to be flat. The gold, nine, and silver markets need to be stimulated, and there will be no small growth.

First, the price trend:

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the domestic crude benzene market price increased slightly this week, and the price closed at 5,369 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.74%.

Second, the market analysis:

Product: The price of crude benzene in China is large this week. As of Friday, the mainstream price in Shandong was around 5,450 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Shanxi was around 5,300 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia was around 5,400 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: The crude benzene market fell slightly this week. The price of hydrogenated benzene in the downstream continued to retreat by about 100 yuan, but the profit declined. The crude benzene continued to rise in the late stage and the resistance was relatively high. Prices are expected to continue to fall.

Third, the trend forecast:

The crude benzene analyst of the business community believes that there has been a slight correction and it is expected to continue to call back later.

After a continuous surge, Russia’s August crude oil production growth rate has slowed significantly.

According to data released by the Russian Ministry of Energy on Sunday, in August, Russia’s crude oil production was 11.11 million barrels per day, unchanged from last month. In addition, Russia’s export crude oil output in August rose 1.9% in August, reaching 5.55 million barrels per day.

In the two months of June and July, Russian crude oil production soared, and the July production reached Russia’s new monthly high since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, second only to the fourth quarter of 2016.

On September 23, OPEC and other oil-producing countries will meet in Algeria to discuss the current situation of the crude oil market.

In addition to OPEC, Russia currently plays a pivotal role in the global crude oil market. In 2017, Russia produced the first oil in the world.

Earlier, Wall Street saw that Saudi Arabia and Russia’s cooperation in crude oil prices had an obvious impact on international oil prices:

In December 2016, Russia and Saudi Arabia reached a production reduction agreement to push up global oil prices. The effect of cooperation between the two countries was immediate. In October 2017, the price of oil increased to $60/barrel. In May 2018, the price of oil broke through $80/barrel.

For the Trump administration, although I don’t like OPEC, the OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela and Qatar are not under the control. Under the sanctions, a tweet can make OPEC is shaking, but Russia’s production capacity is uncontrollable.

Trump has been opposed to high oil prices in recent months, on the one hand to avoid increasing inflation and hurting the US economy; and the current market share of the United States is limited, capacity is experiencing bottlenecks, and crude oil exporters cannot benefit the most from high oil prices. Oil prices are cheaper for Russia and OPEC countries.

Therefore, the United States asked OPEC to increase production and lower oil prices, while increasing sanctions against Iran and Russia, curbing the expansion and export of crude oil capacity between the two countries, and opening up markets for US crude oil. US sanctions against Russia include bans on exports of goods, services or technology needed to support the exploration or production of Russian deep-water, Arctic offshore or shale projects to curb Russia’s oil production potential.