Price Trend

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether market rose first and then declined. The average price of domestic dimethyl ether (Henan) market was 3176.67 yuan/ton on August 9, and 3040 yuan/ton on August 16. Within a week, the price of dimethyl ether (Henan) fell by 4.3%, 33.98% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Dimethyl ether (Henan) market prices fell this week. As of August 16, Yutai in Hebei and Lankao Huitong in Henan were stopped for overhaul, and Xinyuan dimethyl ether plant in Yima in Henan was out of order. No quotation was made for the time being. The ex-factory price of Shengxin dimethyl ether in Qinyang, Henan is 3070 yuan/ton, that of Henan Xinlian Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd. is 3010 yuan/ton, that of Hebei Jichun Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3200 yuan/ton, that of Shengdeyuan, Dezhou, Shandong is 3050 yuan/ton, and that of Yuhuang, Shandong is 3050 yuan/ton. It’s 3080 yuan? The ex-factory price of dimethyl ether in Shanxi Orchid Science and Technology Venture Co., Ltd. is 3040 yuan per ton.

Industry chain: Domestic methanol market performance is different this week, the mainland market is slightly stronger than the port market. This week, the overall performance of the mainland market is still acceptable, continuing the strong trend last week. Prices in the main production areas of Northwest China rose at the beginning of the week. The trading atmosphere was good. Most enterprises stopped selling, which to some extent boosted the mainland market. The liquefied petroleum gas market fell first and then rose this week. Affected by typhoon weather at the beginning of the week, there was rainfall in Shandong, which affected the production and loading and unloading of manufacturers. In addition, the transportation of high-speed dangerous chemicals was limited, the trading atmosphere was cold and the price trend was weak. Later by the international crude oil boom to bring good market, prices generally increased, trading atmosphere improved significantly, smooth shipment. This week, the dimethyl ether industry started work at 32.3%, the weekly start slightly declined by 0.2%. At present, the market demand for dimethyl ether is shrinking, prices continue to be depressed, downstream purchases are mostly on demand, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is general. Although methanol has risen this week, bringing some support to the market, but the contradiction between supply and demand of liquefied gas still exists, the trend is general, dimethyl ether is currently low profit, price weakening.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are six kinds of commodities rising in the energy sector in the commodity price rise-fall list in the 32nd week of 2019 (8.12-8.16). Among them, there are one commodity with an increase of more than 5%, which accounts for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The first three commodities with a rise are coke (6.29%), gasoline (2.26%) and methanol (1.92%). There are nine kinds of commodities that have declined annually. The first three products are dimethyl ether (-4.60%), liquefied natural gas (-3.53%) and power coal (-1.20%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.14%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Dimethyl ether business analysts believe that the current market is still in the off-season demand, downstream more consumption of pre-inventory, market enthusiasm is general, but as August is about to pass, market demand has improved, the traditional “gold nine silver ten” is coming, the market is expected to decline first and then rise.

On August 15, the PX commodity index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 15th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation. Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started one line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant went into operation. Other units operated steadily temporarily due to the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. The closing price of p-xylene in Asia rose by 10 US dollars/ton on August 14. The closing price is 784-786 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 803-805 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The rise of foreign prices has a positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable for the time being.

On August 14, the price of WTI crude oil futures fell to 55.23 U.S. dollars per barrel, a decline of 1.87 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil futures fell to 59.48 U.S. dollars per barrel, a decline of 1.82 U.S. dollars. Crude oil prices declined, which had a negative impact on downstream petrochemical products and temporarily stabilized the price trend of xylene market. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA price trend slightly increased on the 15th day. The average price of East China is raised near 5300-5400 yuan/ton. As of the 14th day, domestic PTA start-up rate is about 91%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 86%, downstream production and marketing rate has little change, but PTA market price trend is rising, and PX market price is expected to rise later. Or will the shock be maintained.

I. Trend analysis

As shown in the chart above, the copper market price on August 14 was 46648.33 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous trading day, down 3.14% from the beginning of the year and down 4.35% from the same period last year, according to the data of business associations.

II. Market Analysis

Recent copper price shocks are mainly narrow. Basically, on the supply side, copper supply continues to be tight. Jianeng’s Zambian company closed two copper mines. If miners do not invest more capital, there will be a shortfall of 1 million tons in 2024 and about 4 million tons in 2028. On the demand side, downstream start-up data show that household appliances orders are weakening. From January to June, the cumulative value of investment in power grid capital construction was 164.4 billion yuan, a cumulative decrease of 19.3% over the same period of last year.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

In summary, the copper analysts of the non-ferrous branch of the business association believe that the short-term copper prices or shocks are strong, supported by the import ban on scrap copper in the case of weak supply and demand.

On August 13, the fluorite commodity index was 108.55, down 0.44 points from yesterday, down 14.86% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 120.59% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite price trend slightly declined, the average domestic fluorite price was 3093.75 yuan/ton on the 13th day, the recent domestic fluorite plant started normally, the mine and flotation plant started normally, the supply of fluorite in the field was sufficient, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream was lower recently. For the fluorite market purchasing on demand, the price of fluorite market went along. The situation is declining. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is normal, terminal downstream receipt is poor, resulting in a decline in market prices. As of the 13th day, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2800-3100 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiations in Fujian was 2900-3300 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2900-3200 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2900-3300 yuan/ton, and the price trend of fluorite dropped.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite maintained a low trend. As of the 13th day, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 11 430 yuan/ton. The decline of the market price of hydrofluoric acid has a negative impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plants is general, the demand for fluorite has weakened, and the price of fluorite has slightly decreased. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, the production enterprise device is stable, but the pressure of goods is too high, inventory expansion appears to a certain extent, the enterprise aims to make profits to deliver goods. The downstream weakness continues, the peak season of refrigerants has passed, and demand has only decreased but not increased. The price of domestic large enterprises has maintained the level of 17,000-18,000 yuan/ton. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. However, the price of on-site transactions does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. At the end of the peak season, the demand downstream of the terminal decreases but does not increase. The price affected by the fluorite market is slightly lower.

Overall, the downstream industry is slightly lower, coupled with sufficient supply of fluorite market, the downstream refrigerant industry demand is not good, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the price of fluorite market may be slightly lower.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations, the PC market in China showed a good overall trend in early August. As of August 12, the average price quoted by domestic producers and traders for Bayer 2805 was about 18833.33 yuan/ton, almost unchanged from the beginning of the week.

II. Cause Analysis

PC upstream bisphenol A market in early August continued last month’s light trend, unable to rise prices down. On-site purchasing intentions are weak and trading is difficult. Downstream factories are just in need of purchasing, and the operators have a wait-and-see mentality and are not willing to operate. It is expected that the domestic bisphenol A market will be weaker in the near future, which will not support the domestic PC cost. At present, the domestic PC is in the peak period of maintenance, and is affected by typhoon, which affects the start-up rate of the factory. The typhoon also temporarily closed the port, greatly delaying the arrival of imported goods. Affected by this, domestic supply is tighter, pushing up spot PC prices, and some brands have risen. Although the mindset of the traders is still more cautious and demand has not improved, in the short run, the willingness of the factories and traders to reserve their bid. In the second week of August, the domestic PC spot price shocks and calls back.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business PC analysts believe that recent domestic PC upstream bisphenol A continued last month’s weakness, prices continued to fall, dragging PC cost. The operating rate of domestic PC production units and the arrival rate of imported cargo shipping are affected by typhoon, and the shortage of cargo sources has boosted the spot price of PC. The improvement of downstream demand is limited, and the operation of stock purchase is cautious. Businessmen are willing to bid actively. It is expected that there will still be a buoyant atmosphere in the near future. PC may adjust the shock upward. It is suggested that close attention be paid to the arrival of major ports.