I. Price Trend Chart of Sodium Pyrosulfite in China

According to the monitoring of business associations, this week the domestic price of sodium pyrosulfite moved steadily forward at the bottom. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 1816.67/ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 1816.67 yuan/ton, with a rise or fall of 0.

II. Market Analysis

Product: The overall market performance of domestic pyrosulfite market this week is general. The market price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite this week is in the range of 1700-1950 yuan/ton. Most of the prices are concentrated in the vicinity of 1800 yuan/ton. At present, domestic sodium pyrosulfite inventory is sufficient, raw material costs continue to be weak adjustment, the downstream trade main body wait-and-see attitude is strong, resulting in a continuing slump in terminal demand, the market as a whole trading light, enterprises have completed the old order-based. (The above prices refer to the foreign quotations of the mainstream domestic enterprises, some of which are not reported for the time being. The prices are for reference only. They have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact the manufacturers for consultation.

Industry chain: This week, domestic soda price has been steadily moving forward, sulfur price has fallen 4.81%, processing cost has been low, market wait-and-see attitude is strong, and sodium pyrosulfite price has warmed up and pressured.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that raw material costs continue to be low, terminal demand continues to be depressed, the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite warms and pressures in the short term.

On September 5, the rare earth index was 379 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 62.10% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 39.85% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of Neodymium in rare earth metals increased by 5,000 yuan/ton from 411,500 yuan/ton, Dysprosium by 25,000 yuan/ton to 2325,000 yuan/ton, and praseodymium by 695,000 yuan/ton. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxides in rare earth oxides increased by 3000 yuan/ton to 325,500 yuan/ton, dysprosium oxide by 15,000 yuan/ton to 192,000 yuan/ton, praseodymium oxide by 385,000 yuan/ton and neodymium oxide by 3,000 yuan/ton to 325,000 yuan/ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys increased by 5,000 yuan/ton to 411,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of dysprosium-iron alloys increased by 15,000 yuan/ton to 1925,000 yuan/ton.

Recently, the price of light rare earth in the rare earth market keeps rising, the price of heavy rare earth market has risen, the domestic rare earth market trading market is general, the price of dysprosium-terbium metals and oxides has risen, the inquiry list of praseodymium oxide in the field has increased recently, and the price of light rare earth oxides has maintained an upward trend. At that time, the light rare earth merchants in the field had a reluctant mood to sell. Looking forward to the future market, the recent on-site trading situation is general. The supply of rare earth is normal in China. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazards of some products, which make the environmental protection supervision stricter. Under strict environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a general market of rare earth oxides. Especially some mainstream rare earth oxides are in normal supply. The price trend of rare earth market has risen. Recently, large enterprise groups in the field are reluctant to sell. The market of rare earth oxides is general and the turnover has not changed much.

Recently, the national environmental protection department has made great efforts to investigate the rare earth industry, which has a great impact on the rare earth industry. The starting situation of the rare earth industry is relatively low, and the market is cold. In addition, the recent rectification of the rare earth industry in Jiangxi Province, a major province of rare earth production, has brought some favorable support to the rare earth market. Recently, the Development and Reform Commission and the relevant departments have stepped up effective measures to regulate the industry, innovate and improve the relevant management mechanism, accelerate the construction of a rational industrial structure, advanced scientific and technological level, effective protection of resources, orderly production and operation of the industry development pattern, and give full play to the special price of rare earth as a strategic resource. Meanwhile, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and people in the domestic market are waiting for the good news of the policy and national reserves.

Rare earth analysts of business associations expect that the domestic environmental stringency will not decrease in the near future, coupled with the domestic reorganization of the order of the rare earth industry, Jiangxi rare earth industry reorganization, supply may be reduced, but the demand for rare earth downstream in the near future has been supported, and it is expected that some prices in the rare earth market will continue to rise.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic acetic acid market rose sharply in August, with a 20.9% increase in the month. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 3350-3400/ton; in Shandong, 3500-3600 yuan/ton; in Hebei, 3550 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi, 3150 yuan/ton; and in Jiangsu, 3500-3600 yuan/ton. / Tons or so; Zhejiang region offers 3650-3750 yuan/ton; South China region delivers about 3650-3700 yuan/ton.

II. Cause Analysis

Products: In August, the domestic acetic acid market was affected by the supply shortage caused by enterprise maintenance, and continued to rise in the month as a whole, reaching the highest value in the year. In the month as a whole, construction started at about 60%, and the total output of the enterprise was less than 600,000 tons. At the beginning of the month, the domestic acetic acid market continued to be weak in July, with poor downstream demand, poor enterprise shipment and delivery at reduced prices. In the middle of the month, concentrated maintenance of acetic acid production enterprises led to continuous tight market supply. Among them, 10 days of plant overhaul of 500,000 tons per year in Jiantao, 10 days of plant overhaul of 500,000 tons per year in Hualuheng, 4 days of plant overhaul of 500,000 tons per year in Bohua, Tianjin and 35,000 tons per year in Bohua. 10,000 tons/year plant load reduction parking for more than one month, Shaanxi extended 300,000 tons/year plant parking for about 12 days, Henan Longyu 500,000 tons/year plant restart delayed until early September, a 1 million tons/year plant in Nanjing fell to 30%, the industry spot demand is difficult, the overall inventory is low, acetic acid prices continue to rise; near the end of the month, overhaul enterprises have successively increased. Restoration, the industry supply is expected to improve, the market gradually stabilized, but the downstream industry has not improved, poor purchasing, Thorpe 1.2 million tons per year device shutdown led to increased wait-and-see mood in the industry.

Industry chain: In the upstream, the domestic methanol market is rising first and then restraining, with high inventories, poor downstream demand and short-term oscillating operation, currently around 2050 yuan/ton; domestic acetate and vinyl acetate industries are affected by high cost support, and continue to rise in the near future, but downstream terminal demand is general and strong resistance to its high price. Strong, at present mostly hold a wait-and-see attitude; PTA market in China started to work at a high level within a month, which is good for acetic acid price support. At present, the overhaul plan of large factories has been introduced, and the demand for acetic acid has slowed down.

International: In August, the supply and demand of acetic acid Market in North America are relatively balanced, and the price of acetic acid has been running steadily within a month, currently about 360 US dollars per ton; Affected by the tight supply of acetic acid in China, the price of acetic acid in Asia has continued to rise, currently 460-505 US dollars per ton; the overall performance of the European acetic acid market is stable, and the market turnover is flat, with the current quotation of 650 Euros./ About a ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

According to the analyst of acetic acid of business association, the maintenance enterprises of acetic acid market have been completed one after another. Henan Longyu, Anhui Huayi and Jiangsu Soap are about to restart. September is in the traditional peak season. Most downstream and traders have the intention to stock up. However, due to the influence of National Day, the downstream construction situation is unknown, and the logistics transportation is limited. More vegetable. It is expected that the domestic acetic acid market will run steadily, moderately and weakly in a short period of time. It is also necessary to pay attention to the start-up of enterprises.

On September 3, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 104.39, which was the same as yesterday. It was 11.85% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 34.92% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Domestic ammonium nitrate market price was temporarily stable on the 3rd day, domestic ammonium nitrate plant operation was stable, is in the downstream demand off-season, ammonium nitrate factory shipment market is general, downstream on-demand procurement, combined with environmental protection control, the downstream domestic civil explosion industry shut down more, domestic ammonium nitrate factory start-up is limited, on-site prices remain low. Bit level. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of negotiations in Shaanxi was 2000-2100 yuan/ton, the mainstream in Shandong was 1900-2000 yuan/ton, and the price in Hebei was 1850-1950 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection, some downstream factories were forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate was at a low level, and the market price of ammonium nitrate went away. The situation is temporarily stable.

Recently, the price of nitric acid in the domestic market has been weak and shocked. The price quoted by the mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu is 1600 yuan/ton, and the quotation is stable. Anhui mainstream manufacturers quoted 1600 yuan per ton, the quotation maintained a low level. Shandong manufacturers quote 1600 yuan/ton, the price is stable. Nitric acid shipment situation is still poor, the low price trend of nitric acid has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate remains low; the domestic liquid ammonia Market in the upstream is slightly lower, the market turnover is still acceptable, the market price of liquid ammonia is 3200 yuan/ton, and the production of liquid ammonia is affected by the lower cost in the upstream. Most of the manufacturers’inventory pressure has increased compared with the previous period. Some plants have been restarted and local ammonia supply has increased in the region. Especially in Shanxi and North China, most of the manufacturers have sufficient supply of ammonia. The price quoted by the manufacturers in North China is maintained in the range of 2900-3300 yuan/ton. The price quoted by the manufacturers in Northwest China is in the range of 2500-2600 yuan/ton. The price of liquid ammonia is low. The downstream ammonium nitrate Market has a negative impact. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has increased. However, the price trend of liquid ammonia market is temporarily stable, and the market of ammonium nitrate is shaking at a low level due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market prices remain volatile, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to remain low in the later period.

1. Nickel Spot Trend

On September 2, nickel prices soared again. According to the monitoring of nickel prices of business associations, the spot price of nickel on September 2 was 141366.67 yuan/ton, which surged 9.05% from 129633.33 yuan/ton on the previous trading day; the opening price of Shanghai nickel rose nearly 6% to 136960 yuan/ton, a new high since the re-listing of nickel; and the three-month period of LME nickel rose sharply, once reaching 8.14%, the biggest increase in 10 years.

2. Historical Trend of Spot Nickel

According to the data of business associations, nickel rose by nearly 10% in a single day today, with a price of 1413,366.67 yuan per ton, breaking a new high of 130,000 yuan, surging 57% from the beginning of the year, hitting a five-year high since September 2014. The ban on mining in Indonesia in 2014 caused nickel prices to rise by nearly 50% in the six months at that time.

Nickel Price Rising in Indonesia’s Mining Boots

Bambang Gatot Ariyono, head of coal and minerals at Indonesia’s Ministry of Mining, said Monday that Indonesia would stop exporting nickel ore from January 1, 2020 because Indonesia had to process more mineral resources at home. Ariyono told reporters that the implementation of this regulation was two years ahead of the original plan and only applied to nickel ores. After the news spread, spot nickel soared by nearly 10%, and futures nickel closed directly.

3. Indonesia’s nickel imports account for more than 1/3 of the total

China expects to import about 70.6 million tons of nickel ore in 2019, of which 26 million tons are from Indonesia, accounting for 36.8% of the total, accounting for more than one third. If Indonesian nickel mines stop exporting nickel ores on January 1, 2020, the supply of nickel ores will be affected by more than one third.

The largest nickel mine in the Philippines will stop mining in October when nickel resources are depleted

Due to the depletion of resources, LANGUYAN, the highest-grade nickel mine in the Philippines, will stop mining in October. At present, the delivery capacity of the mine is about 600,000 mt/month, with an average nickel grade of more than 1.5%. In addition, another mine near the mine, ANC, is also facing the pressure of exhaustion of resources. Although it has not been officially closed down, there are no high-grade minerals, mainly middle-grade tailings. Because of the earlier development time, the exhaustion pressure of high-grade ore in Tawi Ta mining area is indeed higher. The annual shipment capacity of LANGUYAN nickel mine is 7.2 million tons per year, accounting for 16.74% of the total import volume of the Philippines, which is 41.87 million tons per year.

4. Downstream Stainless Steel Follows Up by a Big margin

As of September 2, the daily average price of 304/2B stainless steel plate 1.0*1219*2438 (tolerance 0.91) was 14171.43 yuan/ton (including tax), up 2.48% from 13828.57 yuan/ton (including tax) of the previous trading day, up 8.65% from the lowest level since June 19 this year. Stainless steel production continued to increase in August, which supported nickel prices.

Nickel Price Rising High Nickel Ternary Lithium Batteries Still Have Advantages

With the prohibition of nickel ore export and the rise of nickel price, the price rise of nickel-related products and derivatives will eventually affect the development of the industrial chain. Increasing nickel price will drive up the price of nickel sulfate. Recently, the price of cobalt sulfate has been rising all the way, from 27500 yuan/ton on August 29 to 28400 yuan/ton. As one of the raw materials of high nickel lithium-ion batteries, nickel sulfate increases the proportion of nickel in the batteries and reduces the proportion of cobalt, so as to achieve the goal of long-term service. At present, the ternary cost growth after nickel price conversion is still acceptable to the downstream manufacturers, and the trend of high nickelization is also very clear. As a new demand for nickel, it is still strong.

Two factors may weaken the strong momentum of nickel prices

With Indonesia’s ban on nickel exports, nickel prices may exceed expectations in the fourth quarter, but there are two factors that may weaken the strong momentum of nickel prices: first, China has stockpiled a large amount of nickel, and second, the Philippines may increase exports as Indonesia stops selling.

The effect of ore ban on domestic stainless steel raw materials is relatively limited.

For the domestic stainless steel industry chain, the relative tightness of raw materials is phased. With the release of Indonesia’s new production capacity of ferronickel, the export of ferronickel will replace the export of nickel ore. This effect will be evident in the second half of next year. In the medium and long term, the impact of ban on domestic stainless steel raw materials is relatively limited.

Indonesian mining boots landing bullish mood or ease

To sum up, Liu Meimei, nickel analyst of the business association, believes that the news of Indonesia’s ban on mining had a wave of hype as early as early as July, which caused the price of nickel to soar by nearly 40% this year. Until recently, the news of Indonesia’s ban on mining hit hard, and the price of nickel soared by nearly 20%. But with the boots landing, the hype may ease. Recalling the historical data of nickel price, it was also banned in Indonesia in 2014. China imported more than 1/3 of Indonesian nickel ore in the whole year. At that time, the price of nickel soared to 150,000/ton. According to this level, there is still room for nearly 10,000 nickel prices to rise. However, the ban on nickel mining in Indonesia does not exclude the possibility that the Philippines may increase its nickel export volume and to some extent reduce the impact of Indonesia’s ban on nickel mining. Overall, the Philippines is facing the depletion of nickel resources. The largest nickel mine will be closed in October, while September and October will be the traditional peak season. Although macro-uncertainties may reduce demand, overall, the supply of nickel price is tight in the medium and long term, but it is still optimistic. Now the nickel price is hot, there is room to increase by 150,000 yuan, then or higher. The next wave of high points or the closing time of nickel mines in the Philippines in October.