I. Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic cobalt price rose first and then stabilized in September, and then the market cobalt price tended to stabilize. As of September 29, the price of cobalt was 302666.66 yuan/ton, up 13.64% from the average price of 266333.34 yuan/ton on September 1, and down 0.55% from the price of cobalt on September 24. Recently, the international cobalt price has remained stable, while the domestic cobalt price has weakened.

II. Market Analysis

1. International Cobalt Price Rise Slows down

MB cobalt price stabilization

As can be seen from the table, MB cobalt price rose in September, but the increase was relatively small, and the cobalt price tended to stabilize at the end of September. The international cobalt price is stable, while the domestic cobalt price has weakened. As of September 27, MB standard grade cobalt quoted 17.6-18.1 US dollars per pound, alloy grade cobalt quoted 18-18.5 US dollars per pound; international cobalt price has stabilized, domestic cobalt price has weakened, and overall domestic cobalt market has tended to stabilize.

Cobalt Price Rising in LME Market

As can be seen from the chart, the price of cobalt in LME market has gradually stabilized after the surge of cobalt price in September. The stability of international cobalt price has weakened the domestic cobalt price advantage, and the domestic cobalt market remains stable.

Sales of new energy vehicles fell 16% year-on-year in August.

According to the data released by the China Automobile Association, in August 2019, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China completed 87,000 vehicles and 85,000 vehicles respectively, down 12.1% and 15.8% respectively from the same period last year. From January to August, 799,000 new energy vehicles and 793,000 new energy vehicles were produced and sold, up 31.6% and 32.0% respectively from the same period last year. In August, the production and sales of new energy automobiles fell sharply year on year, and the new energy automobile market showed a slump. Although the sluggish performance of the new energy automobile market is considered to be a temporary phenomenon and the future new energy automobile market is still expected, the decline in the production and sales of new energy automobiles has seriously affected the demand of the cobalt market, and the demand of the cobalt market is expected to decline sharply.  Overall, the new energy automobile industry has slipped under the support of the cobalt market.

Mobile phone sales continue to decline

According to the data of CITIC, in August 2019, the total shipment of domestic mobile phone market was 308.775 million units, down 5.3% from the same period last year; in January-August 2019, the total shipment of domestic mobile phone market was 251 million units, down 5.5% from the same period last year. Domestic mobile phone sales fell sharply, and demand for cobalt declined significantly. Although the sales of 5G mobile phones have made little progress, in August the sales of 5G mobile phones were only 219,000, and the sales of 5G mobile phones were only 291,000. The rapid development of 5G mobile phones has not yet come. It is anticipated that the trend of 5G switching will indeed come in 2020. The demand for cobalt in the mobile phone market in 2019 is not obvious.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst for business associations, believes that the steady rise of international cobalt price in September has a certain promoting effect on domestic cobalt price, and that domestic cobalt price has a certain driving force, but with the stabilization of international cobalt price, the driving force of cobalt market is weakening; in terms of demand, the sharp decline in sales of new energy vehicles and mobile phones has brought about demand for cobalt market. A little haze, cobalt market demand is weak, cobalt prices are weak. In the future market, cobalt supply is expected to decline in the global cobalt market, cobalt mining enterprise cost constraints, the era of low-cost cobalt is far away, cobalt prices may be weakened; cobalt market demand performance is not good in the near future, but cobalt market demand is still bullish in the future, German new energy automobile sales rose substantially, and the global development of new energy automobile market is promoted. The market of new energy automobiles is bound to grow again and substantially after sales. 5G mobile phones are performing normally at this stage. However, with the 5G infrastructure in place, there will be a wave of change in 2020, and the long-term demand for cobalt will rise. Generally speaking, the cobalt market has limited upward momentum and insufficient downward pressure. The probability of cobalt market rising and falling sharply in the near future is relatively small. Cobalt price is mainly stable by shocks. In the long run, cobalt market still has upward momentum, cobalt price has some room to rise, and cobalt price may rise slowly in the long run.

Price Trend

Aniline prices continued to rise this week, with Shandong currently trading at 7,600 yuan/ton and Nanjing at 7,800 yuan/ton, up 3.14% from last Friday, according to a large list of business associations.

II. Analytical Review

Raw Material: This week, the price of raw material pure benzene is 5600-5900 yuan/ton, down from last week. This week, the tender price of aniline raw material is about 200 yuan/ton lower than before. Last week, the Saudi Arabian incident led to a surge in crude oil and pure benzene, benefiting the domestic market and pure benzene. The impact of this week’s events has subsided. Although the inventory of Zhouzhuangdong Port declined slightly, some factories were parked near the lower reaches of the Eleventh century, and environmental protection requirements caused certain restrictions on transportation. The demand for pure benzene was reduced, and the price of hydrobenzene in Shandong Province began to decline.

Products: Last week, due to the unstable parking of Shanxi Tianji plant, reduced shipments, downstream enterprises turned to Shandong and other places to purchase, aniline inventory declined, this week aniline enterprise supply is still on the tight side. In addition, although the tender price of raw material pure benzene fell this week, the tender price of nitric acid increased by a large margin, and the cost support was strong, which was good to support the price rise of aniline.

III. Future Market Expectations

Raw Material: Likong: The recent blue sky defense battle has a strong influence, transportation constraints hinder the good market of pure benzene. Advantages: Port stocks in East China are declining and imports of pure benzene are on the low side.

Near the Oct 1st

, downstream enterprises have reduced their demand for aniline due to environmental protection.

It is expected that in the near future, aniline will mainly increase in consumption and run steadily.

On September 26, the fluorite commodity index was 100.97, unchanged from yesterday, down 20.80% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 105.18% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, domestic fluorite prices fluctuated at a low level. The average domestic fluorite price was 2877.79 yuan/ton as of the 26th day. Recently, domestic fluorite plants started to operate normally, mines and flotation plants started to operate normally, fluorite supply was sufficient, and hydrofluoric acid prices in the downstream maintained a low level in the near future. For fluorite market, purchasing on demand, fluorite went on the spot. The goods are in poor condition and the fluorite market price is stable for the time being. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is sufficient, terminal downstream demand is not improving, resulting in weak market prices. As of the 26th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2700-2900 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiations in Fujian was 2700-2900 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2700-2900 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2700-3000 yuan/ton. Fluorite price trend remained low.

The price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream fluorite market has been slightly lower. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10,100 yuan/ton as of 26 days. The decline of the market price of hydrofluoric acid has a negative impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, and the demand for fluorite has weakened, and the price of fluorite has declined. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, refrigerant R22 market continues to be weak, manufacturers reduce the start-up load, market supply capacity has decreased, inventory pressure has been buffered. On the demand side, downstream air-conditioning manufacturers’overhaul showed no increase in demand, and the price of domestic large enterprises fell to 1250-14000 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of R134a is declining. At present, the market of R134a has entered the off-season. The downstream demand is relatively weak. The start-up rate of many R134a manufacturers remains low. However, on-site transaction prices continue to decline, merchants purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream terminal demand only declined but not increased, and the price affected by the fluorite market is at a low level.

Generally speaking, the market of downstream refrigerant industry is declining, and the supply of fluorite market is abundant, and the demand of downstream refrigerant industry is not good. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may maintain a low trend.

Price Trend

According to the data monitoring of business associations, as of September 22, the phosphate ore market has been running smoothly as a whole. Enterprises in several mainstream areas monitored by comprehensive business associations have quoted prices for 30% of domestic grade phosphate ores at an average price of 330-430 yuan per ton.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the phosphorus ore market has not fluctuated and continues to operate steadily. At present, the phosphorus ore market transaction is stable. Enterprises supply old customers’orders sporadically. The atmosphere of new orders transaction is slightly light. Some mining enterprises plan to stop production and reduce production. In the near future, the market digests inventory mainly to reduce production and maintain stable quotation. At present, the quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore of Fuquan Huifa Mining Co., Ltd. in Guizhou is 370 yuan/ton (including tax), the quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore of Guanglong Mining Co., Ltd. in Kaiyang, Guizhou is 350 yuan/ton (including tax), and the quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore of Fanshan Phosphate Mine Co., Ltd. in Hebei Province is 530 yuan. / Tons (including taxes), 28% phosphorus ore from Liushugou, Hubei, quoted 420 yuan per ton.

Industry Chain: The market of yellow phosphorus is stable for the time being, the stock is near the end before National Day, and the downstream supply is mainly sporadic. The net phosphorus turnover refers to 18500-20000 yuan per ton. Phosphoric acid market is supported by raw material cost, with upward intention, but the downstream is cautious to wait and see, with limited acceptance of high price.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business society data analysts believe that: in the short term, it is expected that the phosphate ore market will continue to operate steadily.

Price data

According to the data of business associations, the market price of sulphur in East China declined slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of granular sulphur was 596.67 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, the average price of granular sulphur was 580.00 yuan/ton. The average price of granular sulphur dropped 16.67 yuan/ton. Within the week, it fell by 2.79%, 55.42% compared with the same period last year. The light soda commodity index on September 20 was 89.23, which was the same as yesterday. It was 24.29% lower than the cyclical peak of 117.86 points (2017-11-21), and 41.30% higher than the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic sulphur market continued to be weak, and refineries in different regions continued to decline according to their own shipments. As of the 20th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in Shandong area of Sinopec is around 580 yuan/ton, while that of liquid sulfur is 490-570 yuan/ton; that of solid sulfur in North China is 480-530 yuan/ton, that of liquid sulfur is 450-490 yuan/ton, and that of solid sulfur is stable; that of solid sulfur in East China is 620-700 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 550-670 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from last week’s price.

Industry chain: The price trend of downstream sulfuric acid Shandong market slightly declined this week, with a weekend quotation of 216.67 yuan/ton, which was 2.98% lower than 223.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 57.10% lower than the same period last year. This week, the price of the main sulphuric acid producers in Shandong fell slightly, the inventory of the producers was small, the downstream demand was small, the downstream acid market was weak, and the market price is still expected to decline.

Industry: At present, the domestic sulphur market demand is low, the stock consumption in Hong Kong is slow, there is no information guidance for the internal and external market, and the enthusiasm of terminal purchasing is weak. In the absence of information guidance in the market and the weak intention of the buyer, the market atmosphere is strong, the negotiation atmosphere is cold, and the hollowness of the business is obvious.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business sulfur analysts believe that the current sulfur market lacks information support, the enthusiasm of on-site negotiations is weak, the mindset of the operators is mainly impasse, and the short-term sulfur market is expected to continue weak consolidation.