On November 27, the rare earth index was 336, the same as yesterday, 66.40% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 1000 (2011-12-06), and 23.99% higher than the lowest point, 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium in rare earth metals decreased by 3000 yuan / ton to 360000 yuan / ton, 2035000 yuan / ton and 650000 yuan / ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide in rare earth oxide decreased by 500 yuan / ton to 284500 yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium oxide increased by 10000 yuan / ton to 1630000 yuan / ton; the average price of praseodymium oxide was 335000 yuan / ton; the average price of neodymium oxide decreased by 500 yuan / ton to 286500 yuan / ton. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy in rare earth alloy decreased by 3000 yuan / ton to 360000 yuan / ton; the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy increased by 10000 yuan / ton to 1620000 yuan / ton.

The price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market rose, the domestic supply policy of heavy rare earth market, the export of heavy rare earth improved, and the domestic price of heavy rare earth rebounded and rose. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet has increased recently, the market trend of PR nd series products is general, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth is general in the near future, and the market price remains low. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controls the sales, but the downstream demand has not changed much in the near future, and the price trend of most rare earths is mainly stable.

The Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the notice on the total amount control indexes of rare earth mining and smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2019. The total amount control indexes of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2019 were 132000 tons and 127000 tons respectively. The total control index of tungsten concentrate (65% of tungsten trioxide) mining in China is 105000 tons, including 78150 tons of main mining index and 26850 tons of comprehensive utilization index. In addition, the national environmental protection department has made unremitting efforts in strict inspection, which has a great impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a relatively low start-up situation, and the market situation is cold, which has brought some good support to the rare earth market. Recently, Geng Shuang, spokesman of the Ministry of foreign affairs, said that China is the world’s largest country in rare earth reserves and production, and plays an important role in the global rare earth industry chain. China has been adhering to the principle of openness, coordination and sharing, promoting the development of domestic rare earth industry, and is willing to meet the legitimate needs of the development of all countries in the world with rare earth resources and products, so as to promote China’s economy and the world Economic development plays an active role. China’s rare earth production accounts for 73% of the world’s total, ranking first in the world and playing an important role in the game between big countries. Rare earth PR nd and Dy TB are mainly used in NdFeB magnetic steel. The supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, China’s domestic demand has improved, and the price of domestic rare earth market has increased.

Rare earth analysts of the business club expect that in the near future, the intensity of strict environmental protection inspection will not be reduced in China. In addition, the order of rare earth industry will be rectified in China, and the supply of rare earth industry in Jiangxi will maintain a low level. However, in the near future, the national rare earth export will get good support, and the rare earth market is expected to rise slightly.

1. Trade name: standard aluminum ingot (99.70)

2. Latest price (November 27, 2019): 13966.67 yuan / ton

3. Analysis points:

Supply side: the new capacity is relatively centralized. In November, the newly increased production capacity mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia Xinhengfeng, Chuangyuan metal, Guangxi baikuang, Guangyuan Linfeng and Yunnan Shenhuo, etc., all of which have started or are about to start the new production capacity. In terms of resumption of production, the 500000 ton production capacity shut down by Xinjiang Xinxin for some reason was resumed by power on November 15 and completed by the end of December. Guangxi Investment Group Yinhai Aluminum Co., Ltd. announced to withdraw the capacity of 200000 tons of electrolytic aluminum (336 240kA electrolytic cells) and replace it with Guangxi Huasheng electrolytic aluminum project.

Consumer end: the domestic performance is relatively flat, the aluminum export performance is poor, and the fundamentals are weak as a whole.

4. Future forecast:

The start of heating season will affect the production of electrolytic aluminum to a certain extent. At present, the aluminum ingot Market is relatively stable, and it is expected to run mainly in the first line of 14000 shocks in the near future.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, on November 26, the average ex factory price of domestic grade 52 chlorinated paraffin was 5066 yuan / ton, and the price per day fell by 2.56%. Up to now, the commodity index of chlorinated paraffin on November 26 is 75.43, down 1.99 points from yesterday, down 31.07% from the highest point of 109.43 (2013-12-03), and up 18.14% from the lowest point of 63.85 on September 26, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-06-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: at present, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4600-5500 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4500-5500 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 5200 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Central China is 4800-5500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 5000-5500 yuan / ton 。 The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 4800-5500 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is about 5000-5500 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the US China trade consultation has released positive signals, with international crude oil rising slightly, and the aftermarket is mainly volatile. The market price of liquid wax is stable and the manufacturer has a strong wait-and-see attitude. The liquid chlorine market is difficult to rise, the purchasing power of downstream is weak, the prices of some manufacturers are lowered, and most prices are stable.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 46th week of 2019 (11.18-11.22), there are 19 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are isopropanol (9.31%), acetone (6.28%) and acrylic acid (3.24%). There are 26 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products falling are caustic soda (- 11.61%), epichlorohydrin (- 8.58%) and sulfur (- 5.42%). This week’s average was – 0.38%.

III. future forecast

Analysts of chlorinated paraffin from business association believe that at present, the domestic chlorinated paraffin market is weak, and there is no good support. The price of raw materials is low. Most downstream enterprises need to purchase, and some enterprises adjust slightly. The overall market is not optimistic. It is expected that the market of chlorinated paraffin will rise difficultly in the later period, and the weak consolidation will continue.

I. price trend

The TDI commodity index on November 25 was 61.38, down 1.23 points from yesterday, 75.25% from 248.02 (2016-10-19), and 2.01% higher than 60.17, the lowest point on February 22, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: according to the statistics of the business agency, the trend of TDI price in East China market was reduced narrowly on the 25th, and the average price of TDI in East China market was 11600 yuan / ton, down 1.97%. TDI market in East China is weak, the atmosphere in the market remains light, the operation is sluggish, the supply side information is not clear temporarily, all parties pay attention to the factory information, the overall offer of the industry is stable and wait-and-see, a single negotiation, negotiation of shipment is the main thing. At present, the quotation of domestic goods with bills is 11100-11200 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with bills is 11300-11500 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: on the previous trading day, the listing price of toluene of Sinopec’s enterprises was flat today. The listing price of Shandong refining enterprises was raised today, about 5700 yuan / ton. The quotation of traders in East China was stable, about 5750 yuan / ton. In terms of nitric acid, the price trend in East China is stable at present, and the weak quotation of manufacturers tends to be stable. Nitric acid market demand is still weak, the market is weak and stable, and weak consolidation is expected in the later stage.

Industry: last week, the domestic TDI market was weak and volatile. There was a lot of bad news from the suppliers. They continued to be willing to ship. Some factories abandoned the price and guaranteed the quantity. The overall market mentality was frustrated. They continued to report a low profit and delivered the goods. The focus of the delivery and investment moved down slightly. The downstream psychology was still strong. Only a small amount of follow-up was needed. The overall mentality of the operators was pessimistic. It is expected that the domestic TDI market will be weak and volatile this week. They will pay attention to the information from the suppliers 。

III. price forecast

TDI analysts of business club think that TDI market is waiting to be sorted out, the supply side information is not clear for the moment, and the downstream follow-up is still sluggish. It is expected that this week TDI market is weak to be sorted out, and pay attention to the factory information side guidance.

I. price trend of sodium pyrosulfite in China

According to the monitoring of the business association, the domestic price of sodium pyrosulfite continued to move forward this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 1783.33 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 1788.33 yuan / ton, up or down 0.

II. Market analysis

Product: the market of sodium pyrosulfite is still depressed this week. The market price range of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite is 1700-1900 yuan / ton, and most of the prices are around 1800 yuan / ton. The production of enterprises is stable, and the inventory is relatively sufficient. Enterprises mainly complete orders from old customers, and the increase of new orders is limited. (the above prices refer to the foreign quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, some of which are temporarily excluded from the scope. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation).

Industry chain: the upstream soda ash price continued to run at the bottom, the sulfur price fell again by 5.42% this week, the processing raw material cost continued to be weak, the overall procurement of downstream trade subjects was cautious, and the market price of sodium metabisulfite was under pressure.

III. future forecast

Analysts of the business club believe that raw material cost continues to be weak, the main body of trade purchases cautiously, and the market demand continues to be weak. In the short term, the overall price of pyrosulfite will continue to move forward at the bottom.