1、 Price performance this week
This week, domestic liquid ammonia showed a rapid decline trend after a surge. At the beginning of the week, some regions still maintained a high price of 2900-3000 yuan/ton. With the concentrated resumption of production, the price continued to decline, and the mainstream national benchmark quotation fell to the range of 2540-2560 yuan/ton over the weekend. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the weekly decline of liquid ammonia was 9.72%.
As of September 30th, the price range in Shandong region is 2520-2580 yuan/ton, with major companies continuously lowering their quotes and the market transaction center shifting downwards; Inner Mongolia and Northwest Ningxia production areas: 2600-2700 yuan/ton, with increased external distribution of goods; Southwest region: 2620-2680 yuan/ton, following the trend of weakening nationwide. During the week, the market quickly shifted from tight supply and high prices from manufacturers in the early stage to oversupply, and downstream purchasing attitudes tended to be cautious, with a tendency to purchase as needed and a weak willingness to speculate and replenish inventory.
2、 Market analysis
Supply side: Centralized resumption of maintenance equipment, significant increase in market supply
The ammonia plant equipment that underwent early maintenance has been restarted one after another, and the overall operating rate of the industry has increased. The amount of liquid ammonia released has significantly increased, and some enterprises have started to accumulate inventory. The pressure of internal shipment has increased, and actively lowering prices to promote transactions has become the mainstream operation. The stable operation of gas head devices in Northwest and Inner Mongolia has led to the outflow of regional goods, which has had an impact on the supply of goods in the North China and Shandong markets, resulting in a contraction of regional price differences. As the National Day holiday approaches, some factories have increased their willingness to ship before the holiday, leading to a significant drop in ammonia prices due to the rise in ammonia production.
Demand side: Strong demand is the main focus, with insufficient overall follow-up efforts
Agriculture end: Downstream fertilizers (urea, compound fertilizers): Autumn fertilizer preparation is gradually starting, but the overall increase in compound fertilizer production is limited, and procurement is mainly based on essential consumption; The self-sufficiency rate of supporting ammonia in urea enterprises is high, and the increase in external liquid ammonia is limited, which does not have a strong impact on the production of commercial ammonia. According to data from Shengyi Society, downstream urea has mainly fallen from high levels this week, with a slight decrease of 0.28%.
Industrial downstream (nitric acid, caprolactam, melamine, etc.): The profits of downstream factories are average, and the equipment maintains moderate operation. Goods are purchased on demand, and there is weak willingness to actively stock up at high prices, resulting in limited order growth. Overall, there has been no unexpected outbreak on the demand side, making it difficult to digest the rapidly increasing market supply.
Cost side: Short term support exists
Cost: Coal prices fluctuate, and there is some support on the cost side of coal to ammonia synthesis. However, the pressure brought by supply increment is greater than the cost support, and the effect of cost on price bottoming is weakened. According to the commodity subsystem of Shengyi Society, the price of thermal coal has remained stable this week and is currently at a temporary high, providing some support for downstream ammonia companies.
3、 Future prospects
The core contradiction in the short-term liquid ammonia market is that the pressure of supply release is greater, which outweighs the benefits of autumn fertilizer preparation improvement. After the completion of the resumption of production, the supply will remain at a high level, and enterprises will concentrate on releasing goods before the holiday. However, downstream procurement will be cautious, and there will still be weak and fluctuating pressure on prices.
Considering the gradual increase in agricultural fertilizer demand in the north and the high coal prices, the downward space for liquid ammonia may be limited. Taking into account all factors, the post holiday period will mainly be characterized by interval fluctuations.

As of September 30th, the price of 0 # zinc was 26447 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.86% from the zinc price of 26948 yuan/ton on September 1st.
fundamentals
In September 2026, the overall domestic zinc price showed a wide range of fluctuations, including “rising, falling, and bottoming out”. At the beginning of the month, driven by macro sentiment and expectations of the “Golden September” peak season, zinc prices briefly surged. In the middle of the month, prices plummeted rapidly due to demand falsification and bullish stampede. At the end of the month, with the release of negative sentiment, downstream buying on dips to replenish inventory, and the repair of technical differences, zinc prices gradually stabilized and rebounded.
Supply side:
In September, many domestic smelters were in regular production mode, but the processing fees (TC) for imported zinc concentrates remained low, squeezing smelting profits and limiting further release of refined zinc production.
Demand side:
The expected peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” has not been fully realized. The sustained downturn in the real estate sector has dragged down the galvanizing production rate. Although the infrastructure and new energy vehicle sectors provide some support, the overall downstream willingness to receive goods is weak. The sharp drop in mid season prices is due to the falsification of demand during peak season and the weakening of macro sentiment, which has triggered bullish stampede and panic selling. At the end of the month, as absolute prices fell to a low level, downstream inventory replenishment increased and social inventory was reduced, supporting price stabilization.
comprehensive analysis
Looking ahead to October, the macro level still needs to pay attention to the overseas interest rate hike path and the implementation of domestic stable growth policies. Fundamentally speaking, the increment on the supply side is limited, and there may be marginal improvement on the demand side under policy stimulus, but the weak supply-demand pattern is difficult to quickly reverse. Technically speaking, the current 5-day moving average has turned upwards and is expected to cross the 10 day moving average, with the moving average returning to the zero axis. There is a need for short-term correction due to strong fluctuations. It is expected that zinc prices will maintain a range oscillation trend in October, with the main operating range being between 26000-27500 yuan/ton.

In September 2026, the domestic butadiene market first rose and then fell, with a wide range of fluctuations, with a monthly amplitude of 11.25%. The market price fluctuated from 13333.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 13466.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1%.
In September 2026, the domestic butadiene market showed an overall trend of first suppressing and then rising, with a fluctuating upward trend, and the price center of gravity rose overall during the month. At the beginning of the month, the market continued the weak trend at the end of the month, with prices briefly running at a low level. With the concentrated release of multiple positive factors in the middle and late of the month, the market rebounded from the bottom and the increase continued to expand. The core driving force behind this month’s market fluctuations is the phased adjustment of the supply and demand pattern, combined with fluctuations in raw material costs, concentrated installation maintenance, and seasonal recovery of downstream demand. At the same time, changes in market sentiment and trading mentality further amplify the market fluctuations, and overall break away from the previously weak operating pattern.
Cost aspect: In September, the upstream raw material market for butadiene showed a trend of first weak and then strong, which provided temporary support for the butadiene market and became an important auxiliary factor for market fluctuations. At the beginning of the month, international crude oil and naphtha prices slightly fell, and the overall cost support for chemical raw materials weakened. While compressing the profit margin of the butadiene industry, it also dragged down market bullish sentiment, which was an important incentive for the low market prices at the beginning of the month. After entering the middle of the month, the international crude oil market fluctuated and rose, and the price of naphtha rebounded in parallel. The upstream raw material cost center steadily shifted upward, providing a solid cost support for the butadiene market, effectively boosting the willingness of on-site traders and production enterprises to raise prices, and helping the market price rebound and rise. At the end of the month, raw material prices tend to stabilize, and there is no significant fluctuation in the cost side. The market situation then enters a high-level consolidation state, and the driving effect of the cost side on the market tends to be flat. Overall, the cost trend this month is highly synchronized with the butadiene market, with periodic cost fluctuations dominating the short-term market rhythm. As of September 28th, the settlement price of the November WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $92.60 per barrel, and the settlement price of the December Brent crude oil futures contract was $97.83 per barrel.
Supply side:
The supply side of the butadiene market in September showed a phased characteristic of loose at the beginning of the month, contraction in the middle of the month, and recovery at the end of the month, which was the core factor driving the rise and fall of the entire month’s market. At the beginning of the month, the overall operation of domestic butadiene production facilities was stable, and the industry operating rate remained high. There was sufficient supply of spot goods on the market, and traders had high inventory pressure. The market showed a pattern of oversupply, and companies generally offered discounts to stimulate transactions, resulting in sustained weak price fluctuations at the beginning of the month. The market supply pattern in the middle of the month has undergone a significant change, with multiple main production and cracking units in China entering a period of maintenance and load reduction. Some regional units have temporarily stopped work for maintenance, resulting in a significant decline in the overall operating rate of the industry. The circulation of spot resources in the market continues to tighten, and the tight supply situation has become prominent, forming strong and favorable support, and driving prices to rise rapidly. At the end of the month, the maintenance equipment has gradually resumed production and restarted, and the industry’s operating rate has slightly rebounded. The market supply of goods has gradually increased, and the tense situation has been eased. The favorable situation on the supply side has subsided, resulting in a slowdown in market growth and entering a high-level game stage.

Demand side:
The downstream demand in September showed a seasonal rebound and phased release, providing core demand support for the upward trend of the market. Butadiene is mainly used for downstream synthetic rubber ABS、 At the beginning of the month, industries such as rubber and plastic maintained stable production, while terminal tire and plastic product companies mainly focused on restocking for essential needs. The demand for centralized stocking has not yet started, and market demand follow-up is weak, making it difficult to drive price increases. Coupled with high price resistance, the overall performance of the demand side is flat. With the gradual manifestation of the traditional peak season effect in the middle of the month, downstream industries have steadily rebounded in production, and terminal enterprises have concentrated their pre holiday stocking demand. The activity of essential procurement has greatly increased, and the tight supply of goods in the market continues to be digested. The supply-demand mismatch pattern has further intensified, strongly driving the rebound of butadiene prices. At the end of the month, the downstream stocking pace gradually slowed down. After the concentrated replenishment in the early stage, the inventory of downstream enterprises was replenished, and their acceptance of high priced sources of butadiene decreased. Purchasing tended to be cautious, and they mostly adhered to the mentality of taking goods according to demand. The market transaction pace slowed down, and the marginal support from the demand side weakened, and the market situation stabilized and consolidated accordingly.
Market forecast:
From the perspective of comprehensive costs, supply and demand, and market sentiment, the domestic butadiene market is likely to maintain a high volatility, stable to strong operating pattern in the short term, with limited unilateral upward and downward momentum in the market. On the supply side, the increase in the resumption of production of maintenance equipment in the early stage is relatively limited, and the overall short-term market spot supply is still tight, which forms a bottom support for prices; The overall stability of crude oil and naphtha prices on the cost side, with no significant downward risk, continues to support the market trend. From the demand side, there is still some room for downstream pre holiday stocking demand to continue, and the support of terminal rigid demand has not completely subsided. There are still positive factors on the short-term demand side. But at the same time, we need to be vigilant about potential risks in the future. As the equipment continues to resume work, market supply will gradually increase, and downstream stocking demand may gradually decline. The follow-up efforts for essential needs will weaken, and the market supply and demand pattern may change again at that time. There is a possibility of periodic market correction and consolidation. Overall, the future market needs to focus on tracking fluctuations in upstream raw material prices, changes in domestic plant operation, and follow-up on downstream terminal demand.

In September 2026, the domestic industrial grade propylene glycol market experienced a severe fluctuation of “sharp rise and fall”. In the first half of September, driven by the strong rise of raw material epoxy propane, the price of propylene glycol quickly rose. In the second half of the month, the market quickly fell back with the decline of epoxy propane. As of September 28th, the average production price of propylene glycol in Shandong Province was 9600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.69% from mid month and an increase of 1.77% from the beginning of the month.
Core driving factors
Cost side: Epoxy propane “inverted V” market transmission, supporting the shift from strong to strong
Epoxy propane (PO) is the most essential cost source of propylene glycol. In September, the epoxy propane market experienced a typical “inverted V” trend: at the beginning of the month, it rose steadily under the dual drive of strong cost side price increases and tight supply, but after mid month, the epoxy propane price quickly fell back. The sudden loosening of the cost side directly led to the loss of the most important price support for propylene glycol, causing a rapid decline in the market in the second half of the month.
Supply side: Centralized resumption of maintenance equipment and realization of incremental expectations
The logic of “spot tightness” that supported prices in the early stage reversed in the second half of the month, and the total supply remained loose compared to the first half.
On the demand side: Jinjiu fails, with urgent needs as the main focus
The weekly operating rate of downstream UPR (unsaturated resin) is only about 33%, with a slight increase compared to the previous period, but the absolute operating rate is at a low level; The polyether sector has a stable but slightly loose offer, with manufacturers secretly lowering prices to promote orders, and downstream demand for immediate use and procurement; Antifreeze is still in the off-season; The expectation of stocking up before National Day and Mid Autumn Festival has not been fulfilled, and both traders and downstream are “waiting for a drop to stock up”. Export orders are also temporarily suspended and waiting for a price reduction; The consumption of terminal building materials and coatings is weak, and the acceptance of high priced sources is poor.
Market forecast: Weak pressure, center of gravity may shift slightly downwards
Overall, the short-term propylene glycol market is facing multiple pressures. On the cost side, epoxy propane has entered a downward channel after experiencing a surge, and the center of gravity is expected to continue to slightly shift downwards in October, further weakening cost support. On the supply side, the September maintenance equipment has basically resumed production, and coupled with the expectation of concentrated release of new production capacity in the fourth quarter, the pressure of supply increment will continue to exist. On the demand side, downstream stocking efforts are limited before and after the National Day holiday, and the peak season characteristics are likely to continue to be weaker than expected, with rigid procurement remaining the main tone. It is expected that the price center of propylene glycol will further shift downwards in early October, but the potential for a deep decline is limited by the bottom line support of raw material costs.

This week (9.17-9.24), the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi region fell, with an average market price of 15900 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 15800 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.63%.
The following analysis is based on fundamentals:
From fundamental data, prices stabilized horizontally from September 17th to 20th, but fell continuously for three days starting from September 21st. The market frequently indicates a “low level”, reflecting weak downstream demand and insufficient purchasing willingness, resulting in a pattern of oversupply and pressure on spot prices. As of the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, the price has stabilized at 15800 yuan/ton, with a slight slowdown in the downward trend.
Supply and demand side
The marginal reduction in supply side production has weakened, and the cost inversion has supported the bottom. Some magnesium factories in the main production area of Fugu have started to reduce production, and the reduction in production has significantly narrowed compared to the previous week, with a marginal decline in supply contraction. But most magnesium factories are in a state of severe cost inversion, with factories controlling the pace of shipments and scarce low-priced sources. The raw materials of blue charcoal and 75 silicon iron continue to be weak, and cost support continues to weaken.
The demand side urgently needs support, but the peak season falls short. Downstream magnesium alloy die-casting enterprises mainly consume their own inventory, and maintain sporadic replenishment of inventory as needed. The characteristics of the “Golden September” peak season have not yet emerged. In terms of exports, due to the slower than expected recovery of overseas demand and high sea freight rates, the follow-up of foreign trade orders is slow, which has limited impact on domestic prices. The long-term replacement logic of aluminum alloy addition and magnesium alloy lightweighting is still in place, but the short-term increment is insufficient.
integrated forecasting
The current magnesium market lacks favorable support in terms of fundamentals, and the technical aspect is in a bearish dominant stage. It is expected that magnesium prices will remain weakly volatile in the short term, and close attention should be paid to the support strength of the 15800 yuan/ton mark and the recovery of downstream demand.