1、 Price trend
This week, the PVC market first rose and then fell, and the futures market rebounded in the middle of the week before falling again over the weekend. The spot market has limited changes, and the mainstream spot market of SG-5 maintains a low range operation. According to the commodity analysis system, PVC fell by 0.63% this week.
Futures: The main PVC contract started at 4496 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, reached a high of 4782 yuan/ton in the middle of the week, and fell back to around 4540 yuan/ton over the weekend. The overall range fluctuated, and the long and short games were intense. The move of positions and monthly swaps continued.
Spot: Approaching the weekend, the mainstream of East China SG-5 is 4450-4520 yuan/ton; The fluctuation range of spot goods is much smaller than that of futures, and traders ship along with them. Downstream buyers buy a small amount of inventory at low prices, and their willingness to hoard a large amount of goods is not strong.
2、 Factor analysis
Supply side: The maintenance period has not yet expired, and the operating rate is still at a medium low level
This week, the maintenance of industry equipment is still ongoing, and some early maintenance equipment is gradually planned to resume production. The overall operating rate remains above 70%. The maintenance will gradually end in late August, and there is an expectation of a rebound in production in the later stage, which poses a risk of supply pressure rebounding.
Calcium carbide method: Due to the impact of corporate losses, there are many instances of proactive load reduction and maintenance, with a utilization rate of over 70%; The disturbance of power in the northwest indirectly affects the supply of calcium carbide, and the price of calcium carbide remains stable. Calcium carbide production enterprises continue to operate at a loss.
Ethylene process: Due to the transmission of international crude oil geopolitical fluctuations, the cost of ethylene raw materials fluctuates, and the US Iran situation repeatedly disturbs cost expectations. The ethylene process is also in a loss making state, and the load elasticity of the equipment changes with the pace of maintenance.
Demand side: Affected by the off-season, overall performance is sluggish
Currently at the end of the traditional off-season, downstream overall production remains low, and structural differentiation is evident. Pipe material: Due to the sluggish start of new real estate construction, the production rate remains around 30%, with insufficient orders. The product factory mainly purchases for essential needs, and the inventory of raw materials remains low. Profile: performs slightly better than pipe, with nearly 40% of production starting. Some orders come from stock renovation and old renovation projects, but the increment is limited. Export: Overseas demand is flat, coupled with trade barriers in some regions, and there is no significant increase in export orders compared to the previous period, making it difficult to form a strong driving force. Downstream consumers are generally observing and not actively replenishing inventory in large quantities. The real improvement in demand will need to be verified during the traditional peak season in September.
Inventory: Inventory is still running at a medium to high level
This week, PVC continues its trend of reducing inventory, but the effect is average. Currently, the absolute value of inventory is high, and it is difficult to fundamentally alleviate the market supply pressure. Upstream factory inventory has slightly declined; Difficulty in reducing social inventory has suppressed prices. Overall, the extent of destocking is limited, mainly relying on upstream maintenance to reduce production, rather than downstream demand increasing procurement.
Cost aspect:
Calcium carbide: The prices in the main production areas remain stable, and the power supply situation of power plants has become a variable for calcium carbide. The cost forms a bottom support for PVC, but the upward drive is insufficient. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of calcium carbide increased by 0.41% this week. As shown in the chart, calcium carbide has reached a temporary high.
3、 Future prospects

In the short term, PVC is still mainly in a range oscillation pattern, and the supply and demand fundamentals are difficult to shake. It is difficult to break out of a unilateral market in the short term. On the one hand, production enterprises continue to suffer losses, reducing production to support prices and locking in downward space. On the other hand, the combination of high inventory and weak demand pattern makes it difficult for the market to break through the upward trend. Overall, the market will continue to fluctuate in the coming week.

1、 The market price of lithium fluorophosphate has slightly increased this Saturday. As of August 20th, the benchmark price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (battery grade) from Shengyi Society was 111000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.26% compared to the beginning of this month (107500.00 yuan/ton).
2、 On the raw material side, lithium carbonate (battery grade) maintains a high level of fluctuation, which still provides cost support for lithium hexafluorophosphate. However, the recent narrow range of price fluctuations has limited cost support for lithium hexafluorophosphate. As of August 20th, the benchmark price of Business Society’s lithium carbonate (battery grade) was 149000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.93% compared to the beginning of this month (142000.00 yuan/ton).
3、 Demand side: The downstream production of lithium hexafluorophosphate is strong, and the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” stocking has been launched. Power battery and energy storage dual wheel drive. In August, the total production of lithium batteries in the domestic market is expected to reach 304 GWh, a month on month increase of 7.4%, of which the production of energy storage cells accounts for 41.1%. Downstream battery companies’ production schedules continue to rise, providing solid bottom support for the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate.
4、 Market forecast: The price of lithium carbonate on the raw material side is expected to remain strong. The seasonal peak season on the demand side is approaching. Overall, lithium hexafluorophosphate is currently in a volatile upward channel under a tight equilibrium pattern. It is expected that there will be sufficient short-term upward momentum but limited space. In the medium and long term, it is necessary to focus on the actual matching between the release of new production capacity and downstream demand.

1、 Price trend
As of August 19th, the reference average price of 85% industrial thermal phosphoric acid market in China is 8625 yuan/ton, which is 0.58% lower than the reference average price of 8675 yuan/ton on August 11th.
2、 Market analysis
market conditions
In mid August, the market price of phosphoric acid experienced a narrow decline. The prices of raw materials yellow phosphorus and sulfur have weakened, and cost support has weakened. Phosphoric acid has followed the downward trend of the raw material market. The operating rate of enterprises is stable, and currently the supply and demand of the phosphoric acid market are stable. Downstream purchases are made according to demand, and the market trading atmosphere is not good. Demand needs to be improved. As of August 19th, the market price of 85% industrial thermal phosphoric acid in China is around 8200-9500 yuan/ton, and the market price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China is around 8100-9000 yuan/ton.
In terms of cost
In mid August, the market prices of raw materials yellow phosphorus and sulfur showed a downward trend. At present, the trading of yellow phosphorus market is weak, and the focus of market transactions has shifted downwards. It is expected to experience narrow fluctuations in the short term. The sulfur market has shown weak performance, with a wait-and-see attitude and a cautious attitude towards downstream markets.
3、 Future forecast
The phosphoric acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent trend of the phosphoric acid market is mainly downward. Due to insufficient cost support and limited market demand, transactions in the phosphoric acid market are average. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market price will be weak and fluctuate.

This week, the spot price of melamine in China fluctuated downward, and the market center of gravity continued to shift downwards. At the beginning of this week, the benchmark price of melamine was 6337.50 yuan/ton. As of August 18th, the price has fallen to 6212.50 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 1.97% during the week.
Weakening support on the raw material side
The simultaneous decline of upstream raw material urea further dragged down market sentiment. As of August 18th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1702.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.13% from 1757.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month. The shift in the center of gravity of raw material costs has weakened the cost support of melamine, further opening up the room for enterprise price adjustments.
Supply and demand and market mentality
On the demand side, downstream board and coating industries mainly purchase on demand, with insufficient willingness to replenish in large quantities and a relatively light market trading atmosphere. The supply side industry has maintained relatively stable production, with sufficient supply of goods in the market and a more relaxed supply-demand pattern. The bearish sentiment in the market has intensified, and the enthusiasm of holders to ship has increased, resulting in continuous price concessions.
Future prospects
Overall, the short-term weak operation of raw material urea is difficult to form strong support, and there is no obvious expectation of downstream demand recovery. Coupled with the continuation of the bearish trend in the technical market, it is expected that the short-term melamine market will maintain a volatile and weak pattern, and there is still a risk of downward shift in the price center. Focus on tracking upstream urea price fluctuations, factory operation adjustments, and downstream terminal demand follow-up in the future.