According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency, the polyacrylamide commodity index on February 28 was 94.09, which was the same as yesterday, down 15.62% from the highest point of 111.51 (2021-11-03) in the cycle, and up 13.51% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)
Commodity market: According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s domestic market in February 2023 was mainly stable and slightly downward: on the 1st of this month, the main market price was about 15542.86 yuan/ton, and on the 28th, the main market price was about 15442.86 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 0.64%. At present, the polyacrylamide manufacturers have sufficient inventory, the downstream demand is general, the market is not strong, and the order situation is not ideal. The cost of raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid, propylene, rose first and then fell, resulting in the cost support from strong to weak. The downstream demand contradicted the high-priced supply of goods, and the follow-up was slow. The mainstream market of both products rose sharply and then declined slightly this month. Due to the high inventory of polyacrylamide manufacturers, the low production of new orders, and the remaining inventory before the year, the price change of raw materials has little impact on it; Affected by the continued weakness of its downstream demand, the market price of polyacrylamide fluctuated slightly this month.
Raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of the Business News Agency, the market price of acrylonitrile rose sharply in February and then continued to decline slightly, and finally rose by 4.35% this month. The bulk water price of acrylonitrile market was 10062.5 yuan/ton on February 1, and 10500 yuan/ton was quoted on the 28th. Among them, the highest price of the stage was 10800 yuan/ton on February 7, the lowest price was 10062.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the maximum amplitude was 7.33%. The acrylonitrile raw material propylene market generally rose first and then slightly decreased; The stable production and commencement of the downstream have a strong need for support for acrylonitrile, but the downstream has a slight resistance to high-priced sources of goods. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will consolidate in a narrow range in the short term.
Acrylic acid as raw material: According to the data of the Business Agency, the acrylic acid market rose first and then fell slightly in February, with a monthly increase of 4.55%. Among them, the average price in East China on February 1 was 7700 yuan/ton, and the average price on February 28 was 8050 yuan/ton; The highest price of the stage is 8200 yuan/ton from the 13th to the 19th, and the lowest price is 7700 yuan/ton from the 1st, with a maximum amplitude of 6.49%. At present, the price of raw material propylene is weak, the cost support is general, the market is wait-and-see operation, the downstream demand is gradually warming, and under the support of the supply and demand side, the acrylic acid market is expected to be stable in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to the guidance of market news.
Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the data of the Business News Agency, the domestic liquefied natural gas (LNG) fell first and then rose in February: from 6060 yuan/ton on February 1 to 6082 yuan/ton on February 28, with a monthly decrease of 0.13%; Among them, the highest price of the stage is 6090 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the lowest price of the stage is 5724 yuan/ton on the 10th or so, with the monthly maximum amplitude of 6.01%. As the weather warms, demand decreases, market support weakens, and the market is temporarily negative, it is expected that the domestic LNG price will continue to decline in the short term.
Aftermarket forecast: the price of main raw materials will mainly decline slightly, and the production of polyacrylamide will be normal and the inventory will be sufficient. The demand for downstream demand orders will continue to be weak. It is expected that the support will continue to be unfavorable in the short term, and the polyacrylamide market will continue to be weak.