The price of phthalic anhydride has risen significantly
As of July 20th, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries was 8666.67 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 12.07% compared to the price of 7733.33 yuan/ton on July 6th, and a significant increase of 10.40% compared to the price of 7850 yuan/ton on July 10th. In mid July, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East resurfaced, causing a sharp rise in crude oil prices, which was transmitted downstream. Industrial naphthalene prices rose sharply, neighboring benzene prices rose sharply, cost support increased, and phthalic anhydride prices rose sharply.
Phthalic anhydride market stops falling and rises
Geopolitical conflicts resurface: the situation in the Middle East is heating up again, Iran is once again closing the Strait of Hormuz, international oil prices have risen sharply, the cost transmission of the entire aromatic hydrocarbon industry chain from crude oil to xylene to ortho benzene has increased, Sinopec has raised the listing price of ortho xylene, the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride has risen, industrial naphthalene has risen sharply, and the cost of phthalic anhydride raw materials has risen; DOP、 The unsaturated resin market has rebounded, with downstream centralized replenishment and increased production to around 60%, supported by demand for phthalic anhydride; The international crude oil prices have fluctuated and risen, greatly boosting market confidence, and the phthalic anhydride market has risen.
Rising cost of phthalic anhydride
After the intensification of the US Iran conflict, international crude oil prices have risen sharply, directly transmitted to the aromatic hydrocarbon industry chain: as of July 20th, the listed price of ortho xylene was 8200 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from the price of ortho benzene on July 10th, which was 7800 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial naphthalene was 5400 yuan/ton. Raw material prices have risen sharply, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has increased; In addition, the rise in crude oil prices has increased expectations of a rise in raw material prices, and the cost support for phthalic anhydride has been strengthened.
Low level supply of phthalic anhydride
On the supply side, the production of phthalic anhydride enterprises has slightly increased, and the overall operating rate of the industry has risen to less than 60%. The overall low opening inventory has been consolidated, and the overall factory and port inventories are low. Manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices.
Demand support for phthalic anhydride still exists
As of July 20th, the DOP quotation was 8717.50 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 9.30% compared to the DOP price of 7975.84 yuan/ton on July 6th. The off-season in the downstream plasticizer industry has ended, and production has slowly increased to 60%. Downstream demand for phthalic anhydride has strengthened, and the rise in downstream DOP product prices has provided some support for phthalic anhydride procurement prices.
Future forecast
Analysts believe that on the cost side, crude oil and ortho xylene have significantly increased, while the rise in raw materials has supported the significant increase in phthalic anhydride; Demand side: The traditional off-season downstream is coming to an end, and downstream manufacturers are slowly increasing their production. Overall, with the significant increase in costs and the rebound in demand, the phthalic anhydride market is expected to fluctuate and rise in the short term.

This week, polyethylene first rapidly rose, surged, and then slightly fell back. According to data from Shengyishe Spot News, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 7835 yuan/ton on July 13th and 8350 yuan/ton on July 17th, an increase of 6.57%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 10000 yuan/ton on July 13th and 10466 yuan/ton on July 17th, an increase of 4.67%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on July 13th was 10512 yuan/ton, and on July 17th it was 10762 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.38%.
International crude oil continues to strengthen, and petrochemical production costs have risen, providing solid bottom support for polyethylene. The strengthening of costs has led to a continuous increase in the ex factory price of petrochemicals, and traders have followed suit with shipments, directly driving up the rapid rise in prices at the beginning of the week.
Centralized maintenance of domestic petrochemical facilities, tightening of spot supply in the market, continuous destocking of port inventory, and tight spot circulation have boosted market bullish sentiment, prompting traders to actively raise prices.
The downstream film and wire drawing industry is in the traditional off-season of demand, and the continuous increase in raw material prices has increased the cost pressure on factories. The overall production is sluggish, with only a small amount of purchases for basic needs maintained, and high priced goods transactions are scarce. Lack of actual purchasing opportunities from end-users.
Short term polyethylene overall maintains a high and weak oscillation pattern, with limited upward gains.

1、 Price trend
As of July 16th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises is 4220 yuan/ton. Currently, the DMF market lacks favorable support, and the mentality of operators is bearish. Market prices are mainly under pressure, downstream purchases are cautious, and small orders for essential needs are the main focus. The cost support for raw material methanol is insufficient.
2、 Cause analysis
In terms of the market, in mid July 2026, the domestic DMF market as a whole showed a low-level stalemate and weak consolidation trend. The average price of the mainstream market in East China fluctuated around the range of 4400-4500 yuan/ton, narrowing the decline compared to June but with weak rebound. Under the dual pressure of weak costs and low demand season, the market lacked clear directional guidance, and industry players had a strong wait-and-see attitude. Actual transactions were mainly based on small orders for essential needs.
In terms of raw materials: Raw material trends: Recently, the domestic methanol market has been affected by the easing of the geopolitical situation and the expectation of port inventory accumulation, resulting in weak price fluctuations and limited cost support. Although there have been occasional rebounds in liquid ammonia/synthetic ammonia prices, they have remained stable overall and have not formed strong support. The operating rate situation: Currently, the industry’s capacity utilization rate remains low, and the overall operating rate is around 40% (in some periods, it is calculated to be in the range of 40% -45%). Some units in Henan, Guizhou, Shandong and other places are in a negative, short-term or long-term shutdown state due to profit or inventory pressure, and the supply increment has been reduced.
Profit situation: Due to the synchronous decline of the raw material side, the theoretical production profit of DMF factory remains at around 300 yuan/ton with narrow fluctuations. The integrated equipment and leading enterprises still have certain profit margins, and have not yet reached the red line of large-scale losses forcing parking. Therefore, the willingness of the factory to actively raise prices or reduce production on a large scale is not strong, and it is difficult for the cost side to drive price increases.
In terms of demand, the main downstream market is weak: PU pulp (accounting for about 60% of consumption) corresponds to the traditional high temperature off-season in the footwear, clothing, luggage, and artificial leather industries, with insufficient terminal orders and low operating rates of pulp factories. DMF procurement is implemented on a “as needed” basis, with no intention of stockpiling. Other areas have limited support: although the demand for pharmaceuticals, pesticide intermediates, and electronic grade solvents is relatively stable, the proportion of volume is not enough to offset the gap in pulp decline; Although there has been a surge in exports in the early stages (such as a record high in May), the recent off-season overseas and fluctuations in shipping costs have led to a marginal weakening of the digestion effect of export growth on domestic inventory.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that if the raw material methanol continues to weaken due to port storage, the cost center of DMF will shift downwards, and if the industry’s production starts to recover with the restart of previous maintenance facilities (such as some in Henan and Hubei), supply pressure will once again become prominent.

In the first half of July, the overall formaldehyde market showed a fluctuating downward trend. The market trend is dominated by the two-way game of cost and supply and demand, presenting the core characteristics of “raw materials first suppress and then rise, terminal demand is weak in the off-season, and market supply is slightly contracted”. As of July 15th, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was reported at 1243 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.84% from the beginning of the month.
Driving factor analysis
Cost side: weak at first, then strong, with support shifting from loose to tight
The international market variables have driven the recovery of the methanol market. Affected by the news of the US Iran freight channel on July 14th, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East have intensified, and the expectation of tightening methanol supply has risen. The rebound and upward adjustment of methanol spot prices in many domestic places have directly promoted the repair of formaldehyde cost support.
However, the upward space for methanol prices is limited, and the positive support for formaldehyde is difficult to sustain and amplify. It is expected that the domestic methanol import sources will concentrate at the port in mid to late July, and the port inventory will show a cumulative trend. Coupled with the overall weak terminal demand of the entire industry chain, the upward momentum of methanol is insufficient, which can only provide a bottom support for the formaldehyde market and cannot promote a significant increase in its price.
Demand side: Continued weakness, driven by rigid demand, cautious procurement
July is the off-season for traditional formaldehyde consumption, and multiple factors are suppressing the recovery of terminal demand. Firstly, the scorching summer heat and periodic floods in the south directly restrict the production of sheet metal and adhesive enterprises in core production areas such as southern China and Guangxi, resulting in low activity in terminal production and a significant decrease in market enthusiasm for purchasing goods; Secondly, the new national standards for the sheet metal industry continue to be implemented and promoted, and the industry is in a transitional period of capacity adjustment and process adaptation. Downstream enterprises generally implement low inventory operation strategies, only purchasing on demand without bulk stocking actions; Thirdly, downstream supporting industries such as adhesives and urea formaldehyde resins have overall low profits and weak cost transmission capabilities, further suppressing the urgent release of formaldehyde. Overall, the demand for formaldehyde terminals in the first half of this month was lower than the same period last year compared to the same period last year. The market was mainly dominated by scattered transactions for essential needs, without the support of a centralized replenishment market.
Supply side: Fine tuning of production, overall controllable support for the market
Affected by the decline in product prices and shrinking industry profits in the early stage, many domestic formaldehyde production enterprises have voluntarily reduced their production, and some small and medium-sized units have temporarily stopped for maintenance. The overall operating rate of the industry has slightly fallen, and the effective supply of goods in the market has moderately contracted. The moderate reduction on the supply side effectively offset the negative pressure on the demand side, avoiding the risk of a deep decline in market prices, and providing key support for the stabilization of the market in mid July. At the same time, the overall inventory of the industry remains at a low level, and the pressure on manufacturers’ inventory is relatively small, which continues to highlight the mentality of raising prices.
Market forecast: weak and stable oscillations are the main trend, with limited room for ups and downs

The short-term market will present a volatile pattern of “cost bottoming out and demand peaking”. On the cost side, methanol is expected to operate strongly in the short term due to the geopolitical risks in the Middle East. However, the increase in import sources, port inventory accumulation, and weak terminal demand will continue to limit its upward potential. The overall cost of formaldehyde is stable but under pressure, with weak upward momentum. On the demand side, the summer off-season effect continues, and the trend of high temperatures, low operating rates of terminal enterprises, and cautious market procurement is difficult to reverse in the short term. Weak demand remains the core factor suppressing market conditions. The overall supply side is controllable, and manufacturers continue to operate at low production and low inventory levels, which provides a certain support for market prices. The overall market situation has limited room for fluctuations.

In the first half of July, the domestic ABS market stabilized at a low level and then rose, with most spot prices of various grades experiencing a wide correction. As of July 14th, the average price of ABS sample products was 9916.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.20% from the beginning of the month.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: As we enter July, the domestic ABS industry’s equipment load remains stable with small fluctuations, and the overall operating rate within the range is close to 60%. The current weekly average production is around 130000 tons. The inventory location of finished products has been significantly reduced to less than 210000 tons. The shipment situation of aggregation plants within the range has rebounded, and there is no expectation of a contraction in production in the short term. Overall, the support for spot prices from the ABS supply side in July is still acceptable.
Cost factor: News of the preliminary peace agreement between the United States and Iran in the Middle East in June was frequent, but the recent end of the ceasefire agreement has led to a situation of fluctuation. The risk of shipping recovery in the Strait of Hormuz has increased, and there are concerns in the market about international crude oil supply, leading to a rapid return of geopolitical premiums. Affected by it, the price of pure benzene rose strongly, driving styrene to follow suit. At the same time, the on-site inventory is steadily being digested, and the demand side is building a solid foundation.
The acrylonitrile market is the opposite, with the combination of high operating rates and weak downstream consumption suppressing spot prices. However, the rise in crude oil and propylene provided some support, and as the middle of the month approached, the market stopped falling and stabilized. However, the overall demand off-season is expected to continue until around mid August, and at the same time, the new production capacity of 660000 tons from Zhejiang Petrochemical and 130000 tons from China UK Petrochemical will also be implemented in the later stage. Oversupply in the future will continue to envelop the acrylonitrile market. In addition to external news and supply variables, acrylonitrile prices may once again fluctuate near the cost line for a long time in the future.
In the first half of July, the domestic butadiene market was consolidating and operating strongly. Shenhua Ningmei, Gulei Petrochemical and other early-stage maintenance enterprises have gradually returned, and the on-site supply of goods has been relaxed. Downstream terminal products have poor profits, and there is a shortage of inventory expansion operations. The market’s wait-and-see sentiment has intensified, with small trading orders being the main focus.
On the demand side, there were limited changes in the start of work for downstream ABS enterprises in July. The main terminal appliance industry is still in the off-season, with poor consumption levels of appliance casings and no improvement in the profitability of terminal enterprises. There has been an increase in local replenishment operations within the range, but the buyer camp has a high resistance to high priced goods, and tends to take goods as needed, resulting in fewer warehouse building operations. The willingness to chase price increases on the market is average, and merchants follow the market and withdraw funds. Overall, the short-term surge in consumption supports the ABS market, but there is a lack of large-scale forward contracts, resulting in a slight lack of momentum on the demand side.
Future forecast
After the domestic ABS market stopped falling in the first half of July, it rose. The cost and material distribution within the interval are differentiated, and the production load of the aggregation plant changes narrowly. The inventory digestion is significant, and the on-site supply still maintains a sufficient range. Over the past half month, there has been a significant increase in ABS consumption, but the situation of unit price losses has worsened. The current market has average momentum, and once the temporary demand support subsides, the upward trend may be hindered in the future.