According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fluctuated and rose this week (10.27-10.31), with an average market price of 283510 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 284350 yuan/ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 0.30%.
Recently, the fundamentals of tin prices have remained relatively stable, and their trend is more determined by domestic and international macroeconomic expectations. Especially during periods of concentrated macroeconomic favorable factors, tin prices have shown a relatively strong performance.
Against the backdrop of sustained supply side constraints and widening supply-demand gaps, it is expected that tin prices will exhibit a strong upward trend of oscillation. However, given that the current tin price is already relatively high, the consumer response may limit its further upward potential.
At the mining end, the progress of resuming production in Myanmar’s mines is slow, and it is expected that significant recovery will not be achieved within this year, so the supply of imported minerals is still limited. In the refining process, with the completion of the smelting plant maintenance work in October, the operating rate in Yunnan region has significantly increased, and it is expected that the production will show a significant increase. However, due to the adjustment of Indonesia’s RKAB approval system, the export speed of Indonesia will slow down, which may lead to certain restrictions on China’s import volume from Indonesia. Overall, the supply side is still in a tight state.
On the demand side, the growth rate of domestic refined tin consumption has significantly slowed down since the second half of the year. At the same time, due to the high level of tin prices, the purchasing willingness of downstream enterprises has decreased, and the overall performance of the consumer side is weak, mainly driven by rigid demand. We need to pay attention to whether there will be any improvement in the year-end consumer end due to the impulse effect.
comprehensive analysis
Recently, the fundamentals of tin prices have remained stable overall, and their price fluctuations are more influenced by domestic and international macroeconomic expectations. Especially during periods when macroeconomic favorable factors are concentrated, tin prices tend to show a relatively strong trend. Based on this prediction, tin prices may continue to fluctuate and remain strong in the future.

The market for butadiene rubber in October was weak and declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of October 30th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 11190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.11% from 11670 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
Since October, some units have restarted and domestic butadiene production has rebounded. In addition, international crude oil has fluctuated and fallen, resulting in a significant decrease in raw material butadiene prices and a significant shift in the cost center of butadiene rubber; In addition, the start of production of butadiene rubber in October first increased and then decreased, and the pressure on the supply side gradually eased; Downstream tire production has steadily increased slightly, mainly supporting the demand for butadiene rubber. Under the comprehensive influence, the price of butadiene rubber weakened and decreased in October. As of October 30th, the mainstream prices in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China were reported at 11050-11300 yuan/ton.
The price of butadiene weakened significantly in October, dragging down the market for butadiene rubber on the cost side. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 30th, the price of butadiene was 7516 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.42% from 8886 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
In mid to late October, domestic companies such as Qilu Petrochemical, Sichuan Petrochemical, Yangtze Petrochemical, and Zhejiang Petrochemical successively shut down their Shunding units for maintenance, resulting in a significant decrease in Shunding rubber production; In addition, there are maintenance plans for the Shunding unit of Maoming Petrochemical and Zhenhua New Materials in November.
Demand side: In October, there was a slight increase in downstream semi steel tire production, which provided strong support for the demand in the butadiene rubber market. As of October 24th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has started at around 7.4%; The construction of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong Province has slightly increased to around 6.60%.
Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the abundant supply of raw material butadiene is mainly due to weak market conditions, with slight fluctuations in downstream tire production. In November, some Shunding units still have plans to shut down for maintenance. Overall, it is expected that Shunding rubber will experience weak fluctuations in the later period.

Recently (10.20-10.29), the trichloromethane market in Shandong region has remained relatively stable. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 29th, the price of trichloromethane water in Shandong Province was 1700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine still have some support. Downstream production remains at a low level, dragging down the market for trichloromethane. However, the expected production of methane chloride has decreased, and the overall trichloromethane market is in a weak equilibrium state due to the comprehensive impact.
Recently (10.20-10.29), the Jinling methane chloride unit was restarted, the Jiangsu Liwen methane chloride unit was shut down for maintenance, and there are maintenance plans for the Jiuhong methane chloride unit in the later stage. The market expects a slight decrease in supply pressure in the later stage.
Recently, the price of methanol has been declining and the price of liquid chlorine has been rising, which still provides support for the cost of trichloromethane. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 29th, the spot price of methanol was 2212 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.41% from 2290 yuan/ton on the 20th. As of October 29th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around 250 yuan/ton, which is about 50 yuan/ton higher than the previous period.
The demand for downstream refrigerant R22 continues to be weak, and the support for trichloromethane demand has weakened. In addition, the R22 quota will continue to decrease in 2025, which will have a negative impact on trichloromethane. In 2013, the baseline production quota for second-generation refrigerants in China was 426400 tons. After multiple pressure drops, it will be reduced to 163600 tons by 2025. Among them, the production quotas for R22, R142b, and R141b are 149100 tons, 0.34 tons, and 0.92 tons, respectively.
The methane chloride data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the demand for trichloromethane is relatively weak; However, with cost and supply support expectations, it is expected that the trichloromethane market will mainly consolidate in a narrow range in the later period.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of formic acid in China has shown a trend of first stabilizing and then rising recently. As of October 28th, the benchmark price of 85% industrial grade formic acid in China was 2830 yuan/ton.
Premium replenishment drives short-term fluctuations
Last week (10.20-10.24), the product quotation remained stable at 2800 yuan/ton, and the market price remained rigid. However, this week, there has been a partial premium phenomenon, with some end buyers restocking at a price of 2830 yuan/ton. The stability of prices in the early stage is mainly supported by the balance between sufficient supply and weak demand. The slight increase in prices in the later stage is related to the concentrated procurement and stocking of goods before downstream price increases, which is a short-term market situation brought about by the release of phased demand.
Supply and demand pattern: sufficient and stable supply, with demand leading the market rhythm
Supply side: High load production supports sufficient inventory, and the formic acid supply side maintains a stable and abundant state, with inventory levels maintained at around 60%; Demand side: Overall performance is weak, with the release of essential purchases. Due to potential price increases in the market, downstream manufacturers are concentrating on purchasing, which has driven up prices slightly.
The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that due to market rumors that a large enterprise in Liaocheng has a maintenance plan but has not yet determined the implementation time, downstream centralized procurement will occur in the short term. With the release of procurement demand, the market will return to the normal dominated by rigid demand. It is expected that formic acid prices will continue to operate steadily, and specific changes in market supply and demand, as well as manufacturer maintenance plans, need to be monitored.

1、 Price trend
Taking the sulfuric acid method for producing pyrite type titanium dioxide, which has a large volume of goods in the domestic market, as an example. According to data monitoring from Shengyi Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market has remained stable this week, with an average price of 13860 yuan/ton.
2、 Market analysis
This week, the domestic titanium dioxide market has maintained stable operation. At present, the demand for titanium dioxide in the market is light, with average new inquiries and cautious actual orders. Some companies still focus on delivering orders in hand. The production cost of raw materials is high, and there is a game between upstream and downstream markets. The market situation is relatively stagnant, and many are waiting and watching. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 13200-14200 yuan/ton; The price of rutile type is around 12000-12500 yuan/ton, and the price of chlorination method is 13600-16500 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.
3、 Future forecast
The titanium dioxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic titanium dioxide market is mainly consolidating weakly this week. There is not much inventory pressure, and there is a strong wait-and-see attitude in the market, resulting in cautious transactions. It is expected that titanium dioxide will operate steadily in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiated one by one.