In late June, the domestic ABS market still maintained an upward trend, and the spot prices of some grades still had a decent increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 23, the average price of ABS sample products was 10662.50 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of+0.35% compared to early June.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: Recently, the load of the domestic ABS industry has been flat, with the overall load level maintaining at 64% in the middle. The average weekly output remains unchanged at around 120000 tons, and the inventory position of aggregation enterprises remains stable at over 200000 tons, with sufficient supply maintained on site. Meanwhile, as the production capacity of new facilities in Daqing Petrochemical approaches, the industry’s supply side support is being somewhat suppressed. However, companies such as Haijiang Chemical continue to carry out maintenance tasks, and there is a trend of tightening supply in some areas. Overall, the long-term loose supply pattern in the ABS market remains unchanged, and current inventory is relatively controllable. The supply side provides average support for ABS spot prices.
Cost factor: In late June, the upstream three materials of ABS showed mixed trends, but the amplitude was relatively narrow, which limited the support for ABS cost side changes. In terms of acrylonitrile, the Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Plant was successfully put into operation last week, with an increase in supply. Supported by the increase in raw material costs, the spot market price of acrylonitrile remained basically stable. In the short term, there is no pressure on factory inventory, but there is a lack of growth space in demand, and there is a risk of a decline in acrylonitrile prices in the future.
Butadiene has been fluctuating upwards recently. Crude oil prices have risen, and the overall macro situation is improving. The downstream synthetic rubber market is performing well, and the spot price of butadiene has risen under the dual benefits. The ex factory prices of mainstream domestic production enterprises have generally increased. However, the overall intention of downstream procurement is biased towards rigid demand, and the lack of demand support limits the increase. The market has a strong supply-demand game mentality, and it is expected that the short-term trend will mainly fluctuate within a certain range.
Styrene has also received remote positive news from the strengthening of international oil prices. However, the production of pure benzene has rebounded, and the supply is relatively wide. Coupled with the restart of some styrene plants, the output and capacity utilization have both increased month on month, indicating loose supply. In addition, the overall operating rate of downstream 3S is weak, with low profit contraction and high finished product inventory, which has dragged down the demand for styrene. It is expected that styrene will maintain a high volatility trend in the short term.
In terms of demand: Recently, the load of downstream ABS factories in the ABS terminal sector has generally remained flat. The current market is gradually entering the traditional off-season, and terminal enterprises are maintaining a strong demand for supplementary orders. However, the recent geopolitical deterioration has had a stronger impact, and concerns have driven up international crude oil prices, with ABS supported by remote raw materials. At the same time, the China US talks released macro positive news, which had a dual impact on the sentiment of industry players in the market, driving some short positions to be replenished and slightly improving the flow rate of goods supply. However, the inventory level within the venue is still relatively high, and the supply continues to be loose, leaving ample room for turnover within the venue. Overall, the demand side has limited support and improvement for the ABS market.

Future forecast
In early June, the domestic ABS market fluctuated and rose. The prices of the three upstream materials have fluctuated, and the production load of ABS polymerization plants has basically remained flat, with a narrow increase in demand. Business analysts believe that ABS has been mainly affected by remote raw materials and market concerns recently, which has stimulated some orders to enter the market. However, the strong supply and weak demand pattern in the industry has long dragged down spot prices, coupled with the off-season for consumption. It is expected that the ABS market may return to consolidation in the short term.

Analysis: This week (6.16-20), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong was sluggish, with prices continuing the downward trend from last week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 0.98%. The main reason is the prominent supply pressure and excessive market inventory. The maintenance equipment is partially operational, and the supply side is loose. Coupled with the increase in the manufacturer’s urea to ammonia conversion capacity, the supply has significantly increased, and the increase in ammonia volume has dragged down the ammonia price. From the beginning of the week to the middle of the week, the prices of manufacturers have loosened, but as the weekend approaches, the mentality of enterprises to raise prices is gradually strengthening. Some large factories have made slight price increases, but the magnitude is very limited. A large factory in Shandong only increased by 20 yuan/ton. As of Friday, mainstream large factories in Shandong have generally lowered their prices by around 50 yuan/ton. Distributors mainly underreport shipments. And downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, agricultural demand is still in the off-season, industrial demand remains rigid, and the overall demand side is bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is 2300-2400 yuan/ton.
Prediction: In the near future, the market has entered a low season, with agricultural and industrial demand mainly following suit. The supply is sufficient, but the pressure on supply may partially ease in the later period. On the one hand, as prices hover at low levels or supply is tightened in the main production areas of the north, there is an increase in enterprise inspections and price hikes. From the demand side perspective, downstream procurement may continue to be sluggish, maintaining reasonable procurement demand. There is limited room for order growth in the later stage, and industrial demand urgently needs to be followed up. Taking all factors into consideration, liquid ammonia may still perform weakly next week, with prices mainly hovering at low levels.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market has been declining since June, with an average price of 16333 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 15933 yuan/ton on June 19th, a decrease of 2.45% during the cycle. In June, the market was mainly dominated by supply and demand. Starting from the beginning of the month, major factories in Shanghai completed maintenance and began to restart. Fujian Wanhua began maintenance on the 5th. The coexistence of market maintenance and restart, relatively sufficient supply of goods, coupled with weak performance on the demand side, has led to a gradual decline in the aggregated MDI market due to strong supply and weak demand. Starting from mid June, large factories in the north have reduced their operations, showing a clear willingness to raise prices. The market has stopped falling and pushed up, but due to demand constraints, the increase is limited.
On the supply side, BASF and Huntsman in Shanghai have completed maintenance and restarted production. Fujian Wanhua’s 800000 tons/year MDI unit and 360000 tons/year TDI unit were shut down for maintenance on June 5th, lasting approximately 45 days. The MDI plant in Jinhu, South Korea (200000 tons/year) will be shut down for maintenance at the end of May, with a duration of approximately one month.
Future forecast: The current aggregated MDI market is constrained by demand and faces significant resistance to further growth. It is expected that the aggregated MDI market will operate narrowly in the short term and closely monitor the progress of enterprise maintenance and changes in market supply and demand.

1、 Market Overview
This week, the acrylic acid market saw favorable regional supply and overall operation remained stable and upward. On the supply side, some manufacturers have adjusted their production plans to cope with changes in market demand; On the demand side, downstream users also exhibit a certain degree of flexibility in their procurement strategies.
As of June 18th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6850.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.55% compared to the beginning of this month (7833.33 yuan/ton). Compared to last week, the fluctuation is relatively small. Price fluctuations are mainly influenced by factors such as supply and demand, raw material prices, and market competition.
Market mentality: On the supplier side, some manufacturers are optimistic about the future market due to low inventory pressure; However, some manufacturers are cautious about the future market due to insufficient market demand. In terms of downstream users, procurement strategies exhibit a certain degree of flexibility due to factors such as procurement costs and market competition.
2、 Supply side
This week, the prices of the main raw materials for acrylic acid have remained relatively stable with minimal fluctuations. As of June 18th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6568.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.46% compared to the beginning of this month (6538.25 yuan/ton). The impact on the production cost of acrylic acid is limited.
3、 Demand side
Downstream demand: The overall downstream demand for acrylic acid remained stable this week, with some areas such as coatings and SAP industries showing certain growth potential. The paint industry has seen an increase in procurement volume due to the rebound of real estate completion; The SAP industry has experienced a decline in order volume due to the off-season demand for diapers.
Export situation: The export volume of acrylic acid remained stable this week, and some producers are expanding overseas markets to digest domestic overcapacity. In terms of export prices, affected by international market competition, the export price of acrylic acid has slightly decreased this week, but it still remains at a reasonable level.
4、 Future prospects
Looking ahead, the acrylic acid market will still face challenges from the supply-demand game. On the supply side, manufacturers need to continue optimizing production plans, reducing costs, and improving product quality; On the demand side, downstream users need to actively explore the market and increase product added value. Therefore, market participants need to closely monitor market dynamics and policy changes in order to develop more scientific and reasonable market strategies.
In summary, the acrylic acid market has maintained stable operation this week under the game of supply and demand. The future market will still face many challenges and uncertainties, requiring market participants to respond flexibly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from June 1st to 17th (as of 10:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2250 yuan/ton to 2593 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 15.24% during the period, a month on month increase of 6.87%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.90%. The domestic methanol market is mainly strong, with production enterprises and port quotations increasing to varying degrees.
Specifically, in terms of imported goods, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has escalated, and there are reports that most of Iran’s methanol plants have been shut down, which may have a significant impact on the arrival of goods at ports in the later stage. The futures market has risen sharply, and spot prices have also risen accordingly. In the short term, the external quotation of methanol at ports has increased significantly. However, downstream buyers are resistant to high priced goods, and only low-priced goods are traded smoothly. At present, although geopolitical factors have boosted market sentiment, the continued rise in methanol prices has been suppressed due to the high inventory of large traders and poor downstream acceptance of high prices.
In terms of production enterprises, there are slight differences between regions. In the northwest region of the main production area, with the boost of raw coal prices, active replenishment by traders, and support from olefin external mining, manufacturers’ bidding prices have risen and transactions have been good. Driven by sudden equipment failures of some manufacturers in Shandong region, prices of other manufacturers have also increased. Meanwhile, against the backdrop of sustained macroeconomic favorable conditions, the overall trading atmosphere in the domestic market has further improved, driving a significant increase in pending orders from enterprises compared to the previous period.
In terms of external market, from May 30th to June 16th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 321.50-322.50 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 79.00-80.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 275.50-276.50 euros/ton.
In the future forecast, there is expected to be a reduction in imported methanol, and downstream industries will face increased production costs due to the rise in methanol market prices, which will suppress downstream demand and production under the situation of losses. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the port arrival situation, fundamental impacts, and macro factors. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will consolidate at a high level.