1、 Price Trends:
This week, the price of propylene has shown a trend of initially suppressing and then rising, with a sustained upward trend. As of September 2nd, the benchmark price of propylene was reported at 9227.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.78% compared to the beginning of this month (8977.67 yuan/ton). The cumulative increase in the past 5 days has reached 6.13%, with increases of 9.19%, 16.40%, and 19.93% on the 20th, 30th, and 60th, respectively, indicating an accelerating trend.
2、 Triple Drivers of Rising Prices
1. Cost side: US Iran conflict reignites, oil prices jump
On September 1st, the US military launched a new round of strikes against targets of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, and Iran immediately attacked US military targets in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates. The daily traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz plummeted to 5 ships (more than 120 before the conflict), and oil tankers were hit by mines and caught fire. Driven by this, the WTI October contract closed at $90.22 per barrel (+5.20%), while the Brent November contract closed at $94.65 per barrel (+4.60%), further rising above $95.6 during trading. The import logistics costs of propane and naphtha upstream of propylene have been simultaneously pushed up, with direct and strong cost drivers.
2. Supply side: Maintenance and logistics disruptions work together to tighten the supply of goods
In August, the equipment maintenance and restart alternated, and the circulation of goods in East China gradually contracted, while the inventory of finished products in enterprises remained at a medium low level; The superposition of strait obstruction increases the cost of PDH and oil production routes, and the pace of supply recovery is actively delayed.
3. Demand side: Follow up is acceptable, but the upper limit is clear
The downstream operating rate of PP rebounded month on month in late August, and the orders for plastic weaving and BOPP improved slightly, which is the support of “still able to follow up on demand”. However, the overall downstream profit is poor, the improvement of new orders is limited, and procurement is still mainly based on essential needs, making it difficult to support large-scale replenishment.
3、 Market outlook: High level game intensifies, with caution as the main focus
Supporting factors: unresolved US Iran conflict, uncertainty in cross-strait navigation, and difficulty in quickly reducing oil price risk premium; Domestic device maintenance and restart coexist, and external supply is relatively tight.
Suppression factor: Supply increment or excess demand increment after restarting the maintenance device; The price of propylene has reached a high level, and the transmission of costs downstream is hindered. Once the inventory in East China ports stops being depleted, there is a risk of accumulation; The geopolitical situation is volatile, and once oil prices ease and rebound, propylene is prone to follow suit.
Core observation points:
Does the mean square begin to narrow and turn from positive to negative (a downward signal);
Can the price remain above the 20 day moving average;
Has the navigation volume in the strait rebounded. The signal of “rising start” when the moving average turns positive has been fulfilled. It is not advisable to equate the continuation of the trend with no risk at present. In terms of operation, it is advisable to follow the trend but not chase higher, and closely monitor the moving average support.

The price of acetic anhydride rose sharply in August. As of August 31st, the price of acetic anhydride was 5565.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 327.50 yuan/ton or 6.25% from the price of 5237.50 yuan/ton on August 1st.
The acetic anhydride market saw a strong upward trend in August. In the first half of the month, some manufacturers of acetic anhydride underwent equipment maintenance, which boosted market sentiment. However, the price of raw material acetic acid remained weak and the cost was bearish. Under the psychological game, the price of acetic anhydride mainly stabilized; In the second half of the month, with the upward trend of the upstream market, the cost pressure of acetic anhydride continues to increase. Manufacturers have a strong intention to raise prices, and coupled with tight supply, the price of acetic anhydride has risen significantly under favorable support.
Acetic acid market fell first and then rose in August
In July, the price of acetic acid increased from 3223.33 yuan/ton to 3310 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 2.69%. Acetic acid prices have fallen slightly at the beginning of the month due to the off-season demand; In the second half of the year, supply tightened, export support and rising costs boosted the price of acetic acid, and the overall acetic acid market remained strong. The rise in raw material prices has increased the cost pressure on acetic anhydride, driving up the price of acetic anhydride.
Outlook for the future market
Analysts believe that the current raw material acetic acid market is relatively strong, and cost support still exists. The inventory pressure on the acetic anhydride supply side is not high, and downstream demand follows up. The downward space in the market is limited, and it is expected that the acetic anhydride market will be strong and stable in the future. Specific attention should be paid to changes in the upstream market and downstream follow-up.

1、 Price chart
1. Futures (main force of PVC on the Dalian Commodity Exchange): Today, it rose sharply, closing at 4791 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.00%. The trading volume increased during the day, with a trading volume of 1.7184 million lots, and there was a clear fund game at the end of the month.
2. In stock (electric stone method SG-5)
The daily increase of SG-5 calcium carbide method in East China was 4.28%, with a stock price of around 4650 yuan/ton. Ethylene spot price: 4850-5000 yuan/ton, with a high price difference maintained.
Spot prices have significantly increased, and traders have offered lower prices, leading to a reluctance to sell. Many dealers have been negotiating unilaterally, but their willingness to chase after high prices is not strong.
2、 Supply side
The comprehensive construction rate of the industry is 65-67%, but the construction rate is still relatively low; Less than 70% of the electricity production has started using the calcium carbide method, while around 60% has started using the ethylene method; Currently at the peak of maintenance in August, some companies have passively reduced their losses, resulting in a short-term marginal contraction of supply. This maintenance is mostly seasonal, and the equipment will resume production in September. There is an expectation of a rebound in supply, but the supply contraction is not sustainable. In terms of profit, both the carbide method and the ethylene method are in the loss range. Causing companies to lower their insurance premiums.
Raw materials: The price of calcium carbide is fluctuating, and the cost of thermal coal is bottoming out; Ethylene is subject to international oil geopolitical disturbances, resulting in significant fluctuations in cost expectations.
3、 Demand side
The operating rate of downstream products is still the fundamental reason for the current industry downturn, with an overall operating rate of less than 40%, lower than the same period in previous years; The pipeline is relatively weak due to the drag of new real estate construction; The profile relies on minor support from renovation and refurbishment, with limited incremental growth. Downstream procurement is mainly based on immediate needs, without large-scale proactive replenishment of inventory; Low prices stimulate a small amount of bargain hunting inventory, but there is no significant rebound in substantive demand. External demand remains pessimistic: India’s trade barriers, rising shipping costs, and weak export orders make it difficult to offset the insufficient domestic demand. The market is waiting for the verification of the “Golden September” peak season in September, which is currently only expected and has not yet been fulfilled.
Future prospects
Analysts believe that the reason for the significant increase in prices today is twofold: firstly, due to the oversold prices in the previous period, the industry suffered deep losses, leading to cost valuation repair; secondly, the August maintenance brought about short-term supply contraction expectations;
In the later stage, the short-term rebound height may be limited. Costs provide bottom support, but the actual demand is weak and social inventory is high, and the continued surge lacks favorable factors to support it, with a high probability of range oscillation; The follow-up strength of spot prices will be weaker than that of futures prices.
We need to pay attention to whether the resumption of work will resume after the maintenance in September in the later stage; And the situation of downstream production starting in the peak season of September and whether orders have substantially improved.

1、 Price trend
This week, the PVC market continued its downward trend from last week, with the futures market remaining weak throughout the week and limited changes in the spot market. The mainstream spot market of SG-5 maintained a low range operation. This week, PVC fell by 1.71%.
Futures: The main contract of PVC2701 started at 4673 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and fell to around 4515 yuan/ton over the weekend, with a slight downward shift in the overall range and intense long short game.
Spot: Approaching the weekend, the mainstream of East China SG-5 is 4420-4500 yuan/ton; The fluctuation range of spot goods is much smaller than that of futures, and traders ship along with them. Downstream buyers buy a small amount of inventory at low prices, and their willingness to hoard a large amount of goods is not strong.
2、 Factor analysis
Supply side: The operating rate is still at a medium low level
This week, some of the industry equipment is still in the maintenance period, and some of the early maintenance equipment is gradually planned to resume production. The overall operating rate remains above 70%. The maintenance will gradually end at the end of August, and there is an expectation of a rebound in production in the later stage, which poses a risk of supply pressure rebounding.
Calcium carbide method: Due to the impact of corporate losses, there are many instances of proactive load reduction and maintenance, with a utilization rate of over 70%; The disturbance of power in the northwest indirectly affects the supply of calcium carbide, and the price of calcium carbide remains stable. Calcium carbide production enterprises continue to operate at a loss.
Ethylene process: Due to the transmission of international crude oil geopolitical fluctuations, the cost of ethylene raw materials fluctuates, and the US Iran situation repeatedly disturbs cost expectations. The ethylene process is also in a loss making state, and the load elasticity of the equipment changes with the pace of maintenance.
Demand side: Procurement is not making efforts, overall performance is sluggish
Currently at the end of the traditional off-season, downstream overall production remains low, and structural differentiation is evident. Pipe material: Due to the sluggish start of new real estate construction, the production rate remains around 30%, with insufficient orders. The product factory mainly purchases for essential needs, and the inventory of raw materials remains low. Profile: performs slightly better than pipe, with nearly 40% of production starting. Some orders come from stock renovation and old renovation projects, but the increment is limited. Export: Overseas demand is flat, coupled with trade barriers in some regions, and there is no significant increase in export orders compared to the previous period, making it difficult to form a strong driving force. Downstream consumers are generally observing and not actively replenishing inventory in large quantities. The real improvement in demand will need to be verified during the traditional peak season in September.
Inventory: The destocking process will continue
This week, PVC continues its trend of reducing inventory, but the effect is average. Currently, the absolute value of inventory is high, and it is difficult to fundamentally alleviate the market supply pressure. Upstream factory inventory has slightly declined; Difficulty in reducing social inventory has suppressed prices. Overall, the extent of destocking is limited, mainly relying on upstream maintenance to reduce production, rather than downstream demand increasing procurement.
Cost aspect:
Calcium carbide: The prices in the main production areas remain stable, and the power supply situation of power plants has become a variable for calcium carbide. The cost forms a bottom support for PVC, but the upward drive is insufficient. According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, this week’s increase in calcium carbide continues the previous week’s rise, but the increase is limited. The increase in calcium carbide this week is only 0.40%. From the graph, it can be seen that calcium carbide has reached a temporary high.
3、 Future prospects
Short term PVC may maintain a narrow range of fluctuations, and the fundamental pattern of supply and demand is difficult to shake. It is difficult to break out of a unilateral market in the short term. On the one hand, production enterprises continue to suffer losses, reducing production to support prices and locking in downward space. On the other hand, the combination of high inventory and weak demand pattern makes it difficult for the market to break through the upward trend.

Acetic anhydride market rises sharply
As of August 25th, the price of acetic anhydride was 5395.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 182.50 yuan/ton or 3.50% compared to the price of 5212.50 yuan/ton on August 17th. Recently, the price of acetic anhydride has increased significantly, causing some manufacturers on the supply side to delay resuming production. The market supply is tight, and enterprise quotations are running steadily; Downstream market entry requires on-demand purchasing, and the trading atmosphere on site is still acceptable; The raw material side acetic acid continues to rise, with strong cost support and increased cost pressure on manufacturers, driving the upward trend of acetic anhydride prices.
Acetic acid market is rising strongly
From August 17th to 25th, the price of acetic acid was raised from 3076.67 yuan/ton to 3220.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.66%. The price of raw material methanol has risen, with favorable cost support. In some areas, acetic acid inventory is not high, and the mentality of industry players is strong. The focus of acetic acid negotiations continues to shift upwards, and the acetic anhydride market is rising in line with cost driven trends
Outlook for the future market
Analysts believe that the price of raw material acetic acid remains strong, and there is significant cost pressure on acetic anhydride enterprises. Manufacturers intend to push up prices, while downstream production remains stable. The supply of acetic anhydride is relatively tight, and there are many favorable market factors. It is expected that the acetic anhydride market will continue to operate strongly in the later stage, and specific attention will be paid to changes in the upstream market.