On December 12, the hydrogen peroxide commodity index was 123.19, unchanged from yesterday, down 43.23% from 216.98 (2017-12-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 71.72% from 71.74, the lowest point on August 3, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the monitoring of the business agency: in December, the hydrogen peroxide market continued to decline, and the price continued to be at a new low, falling more than 20% from the beginning of November. As of December 12, the average price of hydrogen peroxide was 1133 yuan / ton, down 22.73% from the beginning of November and 10.05% from the beginning of December.

 

market analysis

 

Since November, the terminal hexanolenediamine of hydrogen peroxide has been on the bottom, the price has been falling constantly, the hydrogen peroxide manufacturer has started normal operation, the market supply is surplus, and the power of hydrogen peroxide rising is insufficient. In December, the price still hasn’t improved, and it has fallen for nearly half a month, with a weekly drop of 50-100 yuan / ton, and some average prices have fallen below 1100 yuan / ton. As of December 12, the quotation of hydrogen peroxide in each region is as follows:

 

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Shandong area: Luxi Chemical 27.5% hydrogen peroxide 1080 yuan / ton; the price is 40 yuan / ton lower than the beginning of December; 300 yuan / ton lower than the beginning of November.

 

Hebei Province: the ex factory price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Zhengyuan fertilizer industry fell to 1120 yuan / ton, 30 yuan / ton lower than that in early December; 180 yuan / ton lower than that in early November.

 

Anhui Province: the price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Quansheng, Anhui Province is 1200 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton lower than that in early December, and 200 yuan / ton lower than that in early November.

 

Hunan Province: the price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Hunan is 1300 yuan / ton; the price is the same as that in early December; the price is the same as that in early November.

 

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Zhejiang: Hangzhou Mingxin 27.5% hydrogen peroxide quoted 1350 yuan / ton, a decrease of 50 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of December; a decrease of 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of November.

Industry chain: the price of caprolactam at the hydrogen peroxide terminal was dragged down by the decline of cyclohexanone, and the price continued to fall. In addition, the purchase demand of PA6 manufacturers at the caprolactam terminal was general. The price of caprolactam fell nearly 8% from November to December 12. Hydrogen peroxide itself is a kind of rising and falling product. When the demand is low, the lowest price is about 800 yuan / ton. The performance of caprolactam is poor, the decline of hydrogen peroxide is expanding, the price continues to fall deeply, the decline is far more than that of caprolactam, which has fallen together with hydrogen peroxide.

 

Outlook for the future

 

The hydrogen peroxide analyst of the business club thinks: at present, the price of hydrogen peroxide is still around 1100-1200 yuan / ton, and there is still a distance from the lowest 800 yuan / ton. In the off-season of demand, the space for hydrogen peroxide to rise is limited, or it will continue to fall, and the road to the bottom will continue.

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

I. trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, on December 11, the spot nickel price increased slightly, with the quotation of 109900 yuan / ton, up 1.04% compared with the previous day, up 22.78% compared with the beginning of the year, and up 18.36% year on year. Shanghai nickel started trading at 104710 yuan, then continued to rise, closing at 107990 yuan, up 2.69%.

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II. Market analysis

 

According to a copy of a new government regulation, Indonesia will raise the royalty tax on nickel ore sales from 5% to 10%, effective from December 25, including the royalty tax on sales of nickel pig iron. Indonesia’s increase in the right to sell and use nickel ore will lead to a rise in costs, with which nickel prices will rise. Basically, Indonesia’s ban of mining on January 1, 2020 ahead of schedule will lead to a domestic nickel gap next year, and the limited increase of nickel supply in the Philippines will support nickel. The price of downstream stainless steel is basically stable and the inventory is high, but the probability of large-scale production reduction driven by profit is small.

 

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III. future prospects

 

Future forecast: the continued decline of the US dollar boosted the metal trend, Indonesia raised nickel ore sales and use right tax to boost nickel price, while the downstream stainless steel is not warm and not hot, and it is expected that the short-term nickel shock is strong.

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On December 9, the rare earth index was 340 points, unchanged from yesterday, 66.00% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 1000 points (2011-12-06), and 25.46% higher than the lowest point, 271 point, on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

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The average prices of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium are 364500 yuan / ton, 2075000 yuan / ton, 650000 yuan / ton, respectively. In rare earth oxides, the average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 289500 yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium oxide is increased by 20000 yuan / ton to 1710000 yuan / ton; the average price of praseodymium oxide is 342500 yuan / ton; the average price of neodymium oxide is 291500 yuan / ton. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy in rare earth alloy is 364500 yuan / ton; the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy is increased by 10000 yuan / ton to 1680000 yuan / ton.

 

The price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market continued to rise, the domestic supply policy of heavy rare earth market, the export of heavy rare earth improved, and the domestic price trend of heavy rare earth continued to rise. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet has increased recently, the market trend of PR nd series products is general, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth is general in the near future, and the market price remains low. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controls the sales, but the downstream demand has not changed much in the near future, and the price trend of most rare earths is mainly stable.

 

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Recently, Geng Shuang, spokesman of the Ministry of foreign affairs, said that China is the world’s largest country in rare earth reserves and production, and plays an important role in the global rare earth industry chain. China has been adhering to the principle of openness, coordination and sharing, promoting the development of domestic rare earth industry, and is willing to meet the legitimate needs of the development of all countries in the world with rare earth resources and products, so as to promote China’s economy and the world Economic development plays an active role. China’s rare earth production accounts for 73% of the world’s total, ranking first in the world and playing an important role in the game between big countries. Rare earth PR nd and Dy TB are mainly used in NdFeB magnetic steel. Recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources jointly issued a notice to release the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining and smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2019. The Ministry of industry and information technology of China announced that the total amount of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2019 was 132000 tons and 127000 tons respectively, while the quota of rare earth mining in 2018 was 120000 tons, an increase of 12000 tons, and the data in 2019 It’s the highest year since 2014. In addition, the Ministry of industry and information technology, together with relevant departments, drafted the development plan of new energy vehicle industry (2021-2035). After 15 years of continuous efforts, China’s core technology of new energy vehicles will reach the international leading level. By 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales will reach about 25%. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, and China’s domestic demand is expected to further improve The price of rare earth in the domestic market has increased.

 

Rare earth analysts of the business agency expect that the recent domestic environmental protection scrutiny will not be reduced. In addition, the domestic export of rare earth industry will be well supported, and the supply and demand pattern is improving in a good way. It is expected that the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market is still expected to continue to rise, and the light rare earth affected will also have a rebound.

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

I. trend analysis

 

According to the data of the business agency, today’s domestic copper price changed from the previous narrow fluctuation trend, rising 1.56% to 48133.33 yuan / ton per day, rising nearly 800 yuan / ton per day, down 0.06% from the beginning of the year, up 2.55% year on year. The main reason is that China US trade negotiations are close to reaching the first stage agreement. In November, the domestic copper import data was stable and multiple positive results triggered the copper market.

 

II. Current chart

 

According to the data of the current period chart of the business agency, the main contract price is the price in the next two months, and the spot price is higher than the main contract price, indicating that people’s expectations on copper price are not so good.

 

Macro oriented

 

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U.S. non farm payrolls rose the most in 10 months in November, confirming that the economy is still expanding moderately, easing market concerns. The UK’s housing price index rose to a 7-month high in November after the quarter adjustment of Halifax, reflecting a significant improvement in the UK’s real estate market. At the end of the year, the economic meeting of the Political Bureau of China indicated that the policy was to support the economic growth and the Sino US trade negotiations were close to reaching the first stage agreement.

 

Low inventory

 

Copper stocks on the London Metal Exchange (LME) continued to decline, falling below the 200000 ton mark to 193800 tons, a new low since May 29, according to data released on Friday. As of December 6, copper inventory in the previous period continued to decline, down 6.26%, to 112667 tons, a new low since the beginning of the year.

 

Scrap copper ran out of approvals in the fourth quarter

 

In terms of scrap copper, most domestic enterprises that need to import scrap copper say that the approval documents in the fourth quarter have been exhausted, and some enterprises actively purchase scrap copper ingots and other alternative raw materials in the market. On the supply side, it will still be tight in the future, and the global dominant inventory will decline.

 

Stable demand side

 

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After entering the fourth quarter, China’s automobile and home appliance sales have improved, and the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises has increased substantially year on year. With the end of the year infrastructure investment, copper market demand remains stable in the traditional off-season situation in the fourth quarter.

 

III. future prospects

 

Based on the above situation, the copper analyst of nonferrous branch of business agency thinks that: the Sino US trade negotiation is close to reaching the first stage agreement, the supply of copper is always tight, the inventory is low, and the demand is stable, but it enters the seasonal demand off-season in December, and it is expected that copper will maintain a strong operation trend, but the strength of the bank is limited.

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

I. price trend

 

According to a large number of data on the list of business agencies, this week’s price reduction of aniline in Shandong region and Nanjing region promoted shipment. Last Friday, the market price of aniline in Shandong was 6500 yuan / ton, while that in Nanjing was 6900 yuan / ton. On Friday, the market price of aniline in Shandong Province was 6100 yuan / ton, down 6.15% from last week, while that in Nanjing was 6600 yuan / ton, down 4.35% from last week.

 

II. Analysis and comment

 

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Raw materials: the listing price of pure benzene on Friday is 5250-5450 yuan / ton, slightly higher than last week. The port inventory of pure benzene this week is lower than that of last week, the domestic spot supply of pure benzene is tight, the negotiation atmosphere is good, driving the price up slightly

 

Product: from 8300-8700 yuan / ton in early November to 6100-6600 yuan / ton now, the decline is more than 23%, mainly due to the supply of aniline. At present, the profit of aniline is small. This week, the aniline plant is in normal operation and the enterprise has sufficient inventory. In order to stimulate the downstream to take goods, the price has been lowered twice.

 

III. future expectation

 

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Raw materials: crude oil and foreign market are good for pure benzene market; spot supply is tight, and pure benzene enterprises are expected to raise their inventory.

 

Compared with the high price and high profit situation of aniline at the beginning of November, the profit of aniline is small at present, and the downward space is small. It is expected that aniline will maintain stable and weak operation and wait for the recovery opportunity.

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